CSR out Wednesday. What is it likely to result in?

[Cogcog]

It is suggested the markets are waiting to see what it says.

If the NHS is ring fenced, education stands still, armed services down just 10%, either the police budgets are going to have to take a right kicking or the coalition will have to serve up and deliver quickly on some very impressive benefits cuts I doubt they have the stomach nor capacity to deliver.

So, your forecasts for where the cuts will come, their size and impact on the stock and housing markets......

Edited by Cogcog on Monday 18th October 18:08

[cymtriks]

My guess is that they'll go for benefits.

They haven't got much choice as these are a third of the budget (social protection + personal social services). If health is ring fenced, defense is down 10% and debt interest can't be avoided we have:

budget item	billions	saving
Social Protection	190	?
Health	119	0
Education	88	?
Defense	38	4
Public order and safety	36	?
Debt interest	30	0
Housing and Environment	30	?
Personal social services	29	?
Transport	23	?
Industry, Agriculture and Employment	21	?
everything else	72	?

A ten percent cut in the question marks gets to about the right number but Tories have traditionally championed public order and may be reluctant to hit education.

If these are also ring fenced then the burden on the remainder to get a 60 billion saving is around 13% each or circa 25 billion for benefits.