Should NoelWatson do this?

[Somewhatfoolish]

I have a cunning futures trading strategy which is piss easy to make money on for roughly a week every month. Should NoelWatson do it or not? He keeps making excuses why he can't!

booooooo

[NoelWatson]

I vote yes

[TooLateForAName]

Does it lose money the rest of the month?

[Somewhatfoolish]

hahaha no but doesn't make money either....

[NorthernBoy]

There are millions of strategies that seem to make money, or that make money 99% of the time, but that doesn't make them a good idea. I'd bet heavily that yours has a negative expectation value.

For example, walk into a casino once a week, and bet your house on every number except number 9. Most weeks you'll make. 3% return, which, annualised, is massive.

Of course, once or twice a year you expect to lose your house, but hey, you win more often than you lose, right?

[Stu R]

NorthernBoy said:

There are millions of strategies that seem to make money, or that make money 99% of the time, but that doesn't make them a good idea. I'd bet heavily that yours has a negative expectation value.

For example, walk into a casino once a week, and bet your house on every number except number 9. Most weeks you'll make. 3% return, which, annualised, is massive.

Of course, once or twice a year you expect to lose your house, but hey, you win more often than you lose, right?

When you put it like that, that's a genius idea.

• scurries off to bet house*