Saab gone?

Author
Discussion

RedLeicester

6,869 posts

246 months

Friday 2nd September 2011
quotequote all
I can't see the problem with them - lovely looking things.

Roo

11,503 posts

208 months

Friday 2nd September 2011
quotequote all
RedLeicester said:
Wheels within wheels....

I had forgotten CPP / Antonov were also behind Bowler, and now looking to carve a chunk out of Browns Lane....
Interestingly though the article says that CPP haven't actually bought Spyker yet. Presumably it's still owned by Muller then?

skwdenyer

16,576 posts

241 months

Friday 2nd September 2011
quotequote all
Roo said:
RedLeicester said:
Wheels within wheels....

I had forgotten CPP / Antonov were also behind Bowler, and now looking to carve a chunk out of Browns Lane....
Interestingly though the article says that CPP haven't actually bought Spyker yet. Presumably it's still owned by Muller then?
Indeed, as confirmed by the SWAN half-year results document. According to that document, in light of Saab's situation, the sale was postponed. Press comment later has indicated that this "project" would be recommenced at a later date.

What is unclear is what the hold-up is. It may be, of course, that VM doesn't want to get out of the car-making business completely if Saab goes pop. Or there may be something else; perhaps, for instance, Spyker's book value is greater than the offer price (speaks to solvency), although that seems unlikely given the included statements in the results document about asset impairment and write-downs.

It may, of course, be that Spyker is partly responsible for propping-up the share price; with the asset sold, and the money spent, the share price might fall further, or SWAN might fail various acid tests as regards assets and so on.

All slightly complex. One day, perhaps, the machinations will be laid bare for (historical) inspection, but don't bet on that being any time soon!

skwdenyer

16,576 posts

241 months

Saturday 3rd September 2011
quotequote all
Interestingly, I just came across this video, in which Chris Bangle asks Jason Castriota, of the Saab Phoenix concept, why is this a Saab?

If I'm honest, the answers he gave give me a slightly bad feeling. At first, he doesn't seem to understand that, when he's standing on the Saab stand, the 'you' in a question means 'Saab' and not 'Jason'. My overriding impression, if I'm honest, is that this is another platform for JC's work first, and a Saab second, rather than vice versa.

I hope I'm wrong, but - assuming Saab gets through the next few months - I'm not sure whether it needs a 'wow, what a great Castriota design' car, but rather a 'wow, what a great Saab' car.

What does anybody else think?

The Hypno-Toad

Original Poster:

12,292 posts

206 months

Tuesday 6th September 2011
quotequote all
Well, no wages for anyone over the weekend and no news at all on when they might be due from Saab. The only thing they have said is that there is now a distribution network in place in China. Which would be wonderful if they had any cars to distribute...

The unions have delayed one more time on the bankruptcy petition in order to pool all their efforts between the white collar & blue collar staff. The plan now will be to push this forward on Thursday if there is still no money. Even then Saab will have somewhere between 5-15 days to find the wages and then the unions will withdrawal the petitions.

There now seems to be a deafening silence from all those other companies who were placing bankruptcy petitions as well. Nothing has been reported on those in the Swedish media for the last two weeks. I have no idea why this might be. confused

rovermorris999

5,203 posts

190 months

Wednesday 7th September 2011
quotequote all
According to the 'Today' programme on R4 Saab have applied for bankruptcy protection, whatever that means.

RedLeicester

6,869 posts

246 months

Wednesday 7th September 2011
quotequote all
So it would appear

BBC said:
Struggling Swedish carmaker Saab is filing for bankruptcy protection.

Its owner Swedish Automobile said the move was "to secure short-term stability while simultaneously attracting additional funding".

Saab had to stop production in April when its suppliers stopped deliveries after not being paid. Its workers have also had their pay delayed for three months in a row.

Swedish Automobile is continuing its efforts to sell minority stakes.

Delayed deals

Swedish Automobile, formerly called Spyker, bought Saab from US giant General Motors in January 2010.

Before the summer, Swedish Automobile announced that two Chinese firms would buy minority stakes in the company.

However, these deals have not yet had regulatory approval in Sweden.

They also need to be approved by the European Investment Bank (EIB).

Under the agreements, Zhejian Youngman Lotus Automobile plans to pay 136m euros ($191m; £120m) for a 29.9% stake, while Pang Da Automobile will pay 109m euros for 24%.

The EIB agreed to provide Spyker with loans totalling 400m euros when it bought Saab.

However, the EIB funds are only being released in tranches, and the money has currently stopped because Saab is not meeting its performance criteria.

Saab sold just 30,000 vehicles in 2010, with analysts saying it needs to sell 120,000 just to break even.

The carmaker was able to sustain these losses under GM's ownership, but its then US owner also starved Saab of the required investment to extend its product range.

The Hypno-Toad

Original Poster:

12,292 posts

206 months

Wednesday 7th September 2011
quotequote all
The one bloody day I over-sleep...

Unfortuntely this is also the one day where I can hardly give this any attention due to going to an interview where I hope to secure my own future!

I will never pretend to be any kind of expert in Swedish financial law (although I have learned a bit with all of this.) but I think this is how it works.
By applying for the what the Swedes call Re-Organisation essentially the company is frozen. No creditors can now push the company into full bankruptcy and Saab can now scour the earth to find someone to help pay the bills. They can negoiate with creditors to take a percentage of the outstanding debt either individually or as part of a group deal. They do not have to worry about paying the wages as the government will now pay those until the company is solvent again. Once funding is secured the company can come out of Re-Organisation and start trading again. The reason why Victor has done this is to insure that the company is still there when the PangDa money arrives in 90 days. A company can stay in Re-Organisation for up to a year and come out anytime before that. So essentially its similar to Administration in the UK except the government pay the wage bill. All this sounds very fine and rosy until you start looking a little deeper.

The Re-Organistaion is subject to court approval. That should be at 14.00 hours today and Saab have had to hand in business plan to prove they know a way out of this. Mr Muller will then be holding a Press Conference at 15-30 at the Saab factory. (right at the very time I'll be saying words like pro-active and team member...).

Here are some important things to remember.

1.) The latest information that I have read on the PangDa deal is that it is for 4.5 billion SKr. At the moment reports are saying that Saab owe 4.2billion SKr. If thats true it doesn't leave a lot of change.
2.) The PangDa deal is still subject to approval from the Chinese government, the Swedish Government, the EIB and GM. None of these have been obtained yet. No one is actually sure if PangDa have actually submitted documents to the Chinese government and the last time one of these joint deals was undertaken (by Peugeot) it took six months for it to be approved. One of the prinicpal pillars of the business plan is that the PangDa deal will be ready in 90 days.
3.) Two of Saabs prinicple suppliers have either closed their factory (Lear) or filed for bankruptcy themsleves (IAC).
4.) Any wages that government pay are loans. They will have to be repaid at some stage by Saab.
5.) The only assets that Saab still own are the cars, the tools, the spares and the staff. The buildings & factories are now owned by someone else.
6.) Muller put Saab through Re-Organisation two years ago just after he bought the company, where suppliers got basically 25p in the pound for any outstanding debt. Will the government let him do it again and will the suppliers swallow another pill?

If you were the court/government and you had 4 hours to decide what would you do?
Let them go bust and put 3500 people on the unemployment line?

Or

Let Victor run this on for another year in the hope that the PangDa deal goes through and that he manages to secure extra funding? Of course if he doesn't you could be out a years wages, the people would still be unemployed plus they might have forced a load more companies onto the rocks through non-payment.

What ever happens clever Uncle Victor will come out smiling today. If the Re-Organisation goes through, he's a saviour and looks fantastic. If it doesn't its
"All the governments fault, we put forward a plan that would work & they've chucked you all on the dole!" so it isn't his fault.

Clever, clever Uncle Victor.....

& in other news, CPP/Spyker/Antonov are purchasing 23 acres of the Browns Lane site for a new production facility. Just a thought, anyone know who owns the IP & rights to the Phoenix platform?

Sorry for the spelling errors but I really now have to go and won't be back until god knows what time tonight (M25 at rush hour.). If you really have no life & can speak Swedish, there is a countdown clock here for Mullers press conference.

http://svtplay.se/v/2526591/vastnytt/saabs_pressko...

I guess this is getting to be a really big thing in Sweden now.

Toad out for now.. getmecoat




RedLeicester

6,869 posts

246 months

Wednesday 7th September 2011
quotequote all
The Hypno-Toad said:
The one bloody day I over-sleep...
How DARE you! We're relying on you man!

skwdenyer

16,576 posts

241 months

Wednesday 7th September 2011
quotequote all
The Hypno-Toad said:
The one bloody day I over-sleep...

Unfortuntely this is also the one day where I can hardly give this any attention due to going to an interview where I hope to secure my own future!

I will never pretend to be any kind of expert in Swedish financial law (although I have learned a bit with all of this.) but I think this is how it works.
By applying for the what the Swedes call Re-Organisation essentially the company is frozen. No creditors can now push the company into full bankruptcy and Saab can now scour the earth to find someone to help pay the bills. They can negoiate with creditors to take a percentage of the outstanding debt either individually or as part of a group deal. They do not have to worry about paying the wages as the government will now pay those until the company is solvent again. Once funding is secured the company can come out of Re-Organisation and start trading again. The reason why Victor has done this is to insure that the company is still there when the PangDa money arrives in 90 days. A company can stay in Re-Organisation for up to a year and come out anytime before that. So essentially its similar to Administration in the UK except the government pay the wage bill.
Not quite like Administration. The government salary loan is critical to keeping staff in the mix. And management is still involved in Sweden. I'm not aware that I've ever seen a UK Administration which ended with the business coming out of Administration; rather, the assets etc get sold-on, leaving the debts in the 'husk' and the owners without anything. I prefer the Swedish and US approaches to this problem.

The Hypno-Toad said:
All this sounds very fine and rosy until you start looking a little deeper.

The Re-Organistaion is subject to court approval. That should be at 14.00 hours today and Saab have had to hand in business plan to prove they know a way out of this. Mr Muller will then be holding a Press Conference at 15-30 at the Saab factory. (right at the very time I'll be saying words like pro-active and team member...).

Here are some important things to remember.

1.) The latest information that I have read on the PangDa deal is that it is for 4.5 billion SKr. At the moment reports are saying that Saab owe 4.2billion SKr. If thats true it doesn't leave a lot of change.
2.) The PangDa deal is still subject to approval from the Chinese government, the Swedish Government, the EIB and GM. None of these have been obtained yet. No one is actually sure if PangDa have actually submitted documents to the Chinese government and the last time one of these joint deals was undertaken (by Peugeot) it took six months for it to be approved. One of the prinicpal pillars of the business plan is that the PangDa deal will be ready in 90 days.
3.) Two of Saabs prinicple suppliers have either closed their factory (Lear) or filed for bankruptcy themsleves (IAC).
4.) Any wages that government pay are loans. They will have to be repaid at some stage by Saab.
5.) The only assets that Saab still own are the cars, the tools, the spares and the staff. The buildings & factories are now owned by someone else.
6.) Muller put Saab through Re-Organisation two years ago just after he bought the company, where suppliers got basically 25p in the pound for any outstanding debt. Will the government let him do it again and will the suppliers swallow another pill?
Muller did NOT put Saab into reorganisation 2 years ago. GM put them in there because they didn't want to underwrite the business. VM pulled them out; he was only prepared to do that if the suppliers accepted 25%, which they did.

The Hypno-Toad said:
If you were the court/government and you had 4 hours to decide what would you do?
Let them go bust and put 3500 people on the unemployment line?

Or

Let Victor run this on for another year in the hope that the PangDa deal goes through and that he manages to secure extra funding? Of course if he doesn't you could be out a years wages, the people would still be unemployed plus they might have forced a load more companies onto the rocks through non-payment.
Difficult question. That's why, presumably, a court is given the task of deciding, rather than a politician!

The Hypno-Toad said:
What ever happens clever Uncle Victor will come out smiling today. If the Re-Organisation goes through, he's a saviour and looks fantastic. If it doesn't its
"All the governments fault, we put forward a plan that would work & they've chucked you all on the dole!" so it isn't his fault.

Clever, clever Uncle Victor.....
I see where you're coming from, but think the implication is a little unfair. What else could have been done?

The Hypno-Toad said:
& in other news, CPP/Spyker/Antonov are purchasing 23 acres of the Browns Lane site for a new production facility. Just a thought, anyone know who owns the IP & rights to the Phoenix platform?
Fantastic update, as ever. I'm with you about Browns Lane - 23 acres seems quite a lot for CPP's current and anticipated needs but, equally, if land prices are cheap right now and there is backing, it seems a pretty sound investment whatever happens.

Roll on this afternoon!

marcosgt

11,030 posts

177 months

Wednesday 7th September 2011
quotequote all
B.J.W said:
They really do look a lot, lot better in the metal. I thought the same as you from the pictures, but I parked next to one the other day and it really is rather handsome....in and understated way.
Beauty, eye, beholder, but I have to say the couple of 9-5s I've seen on the road look pretty good, they have a certain presence (in my view) that Audis and the like lack.

M

The Hypno-Toad

Original Poster:

12,292 posts

206 months

Wednesday 7th September 2011
quotequote all
Right I'm back.

First of all here is an extremely good explanation of "Re-Organisation" works, thanks to the Swedish newspaper ttela.se.

1.) The company asks the court to put them into Re-Organisation. Usually the company suggests its own person to be administrator within this process.
2.) The court decides if the company can go into Re-Organisation and if they approve the company suggested administrator.
3.) The administrator asks the government for the wages.
4.) The administrator organises a creditors meeting where the Re-Organisation is discussed including payments. If the creditors agree then the Re-Organisation can continue. All payments to creditors must be made in cash during the Re-Organisation.
5.) The administrator needs to show how the company can be returned to profit within three months. However if it can be proved it can be within a slightly longer time period it can be extended to a year.
6.) A percentage deal of the amount owing can then be worked out to be paid to individual creditors (ie 25% of outstanding invoices.). Saab claim this should not be the case for them.
7.) A creditor can at any time ask for the Re-Organisation to be cancelled.
8.) The process is finished when the administrator can prove to court that it is no longer needed or within 12 months.

My comments on the above;
1.) Is already in process.
2.) The court will pass judgement at 14.00 tomorrow, delayed from today by 24hrs.
3.) This will be very good news for the workers but not such good news for the taxpayer if the company then goes under.
4.) The big word here is IF. Simple question; its your business, would you? Then the next big word, as Saab have virtually no actual cash currently is, HOW?. Simply put the PangDa money will not come in within that time scale, so I'm guessing Muller is still trying to organise that bridging loan. Which, The Endeavour Group (remember them?) said they would organise 350 million euros of funding within 10 days, 17 days ago......
5.) Pure & simple, this bit is based on the PangDa going through within the timescale. IF the PangDa deal is rejected the whole house of cards will come crashing down.
6.) I would not believe anything Saab/Muller say on this front at all. I'm guessing the reason they have said that this shouldn't apply to them is because either they expect the PangDa money to come in on time or they don't think they will even make it to this stage.

But again we're back at the brink.
Put simply, three judges will decide the future of a major car brand and the jobs & livelhoods of 3500 people in Sweden plus thousands of others through out the world.(Including some of my friends.) at 14:00 Swedish time tomorrow.

Right. I've got a killer headache after my interview, so I'm off for a snooze and a prawn salad. I will check in later to see if there's anymore news. Thanks to RedLeicester and skwdenyer for their comments, appreciated guys.thumbup





Edited by The Hypno-Toad on Wednesday 7th September 17:59

rovermorris999

5,203 posts

190 months

Wednesday 7th September 2011
quotequote all
What we really want to know is...did you get the job? smile

anonymous-user

55 months

Wednesday 7th September 2011
quotequote all
Sorry to all you Saab fanboys but can they just hurry up and go bankrupt please! I am after a new banger and I am hoping prices will fall through the floor once they go under.


KaraK

13,187 posts

210 months

Wednesday 7th September 2011
quotequote all
Thanks again HT - hope you get the job!

aeropilot

34,705 posts

228 months

Wednesday 7th September 2011
quotequote all
The Hypno-Toad said:
Two of Saabs prinicple suppliers have either closed their factory (Lear) or filed for bankruptcy themsleves (IAC).
Hmmmmm...... well, even if the Panda money comes through..... how are they going to get a supply of seats then with Lear closing it's factory in Trollhattan....?

Pressumably, they will have to get another Lear factory in another country to make/supply the seats, if Lear will want to do business with Saab again of course....??





Puddenchucker

4,114 posts

219 months

Wednesday 7th September 2011
quotequote all
I haven't read all of this thread, so someone else may have already suggested this, but I wouldn't be surprised if the would-be Chinese investors are waiting for Saab to go bust, so that they can then buy just the bits they want from the receivers (brand name, intellectual property, tooling etc) at a lowish price and not be lumbered with its debts or employee liabilities (wages/pensions/redundancy).

They could then hire (ex-Saab) key personnel and set up manufacturing in China or, considerably down-sized in Sweden.

The Hypno-Toad

Original Poster:

12,292 posts

206 months

Wednesday 7th September 2011
quotequote all
rovermorris999 said:
What we really want to know is...did you get the job? smile
KaraK said:
Thanks again HT - hope you get the job!
Thank you gentlemen, for your kind words. thumbup
Its with a massive multi-national so things move at a fairly slow pace. I would imagine it will be at least the end of next week before I hear anything and even then there wiil be another interview after that.

No more news on Saab so far this evening, so I'm going to retreat to wait for what promises to be an eventful day tomorrow... See you then.

groomi

9,317 posts

244 months

Thursday 8th September 2011
quotequote all
Puddenchucker said:
I haven't read all of this thread, so someone else may have already suggested this, but I wouldn't be surprised if the would-be Chinese investors are waiting for Saab to go bust, so that they can then buy just the bits they want from the receivers (brand name, intellectual property, tooling etc) at a lowish price and not be lumbered with its debts or employee liabilities (wages/pensions/redundancy).

They could then hire (ex-Saab) key personnel and set up manufacturing in China or, considerably down-sized in Sweden.
Yup, that's the most likely scenario.

skwdenyer

16,576 posts

241 months

Thursday 8th September 2011
quotequote all
groomi said:
Puddenchucker said:
I haven't read all of this thread, so someone else may have already suggested this, but I wouldn't be surprised if the would-be Chinese investors are waiting for Saab to go bust, so that they can then buy just the bits they want from the receivers (brand name, intellectual property, tooling etc) at a lowish price and not be lumbered with its debts or employee liabilities (wages/pensions/redundancy).

They could then hire (ex-Saab) key personnel and set up manufacturing in China or, considerably down-sized in Sweden.
Yup, that's the most likely scenario.
Except that they can't. And that's the only card Muller really still has to play. Saab the brand will die in a liquidation. It is used by arrangement with SAAB AB; that permission will not survive a bankruptcy, and SAAB AB have already said that they won't allow it to be sold-on as an asset. Think Rover - the Chinese couldn't buy it, because BMW retained it, and had already given Ford first refusal on it.

Muller knows this. The Chinese know this. The Phoenix platform and the in-development 9-3 are bonuses, but the brand is everything. Muller made that point again today in the press conference: Saab represents the last opportunity to buy into a European premium brand. The SAAB AB dimension turns out to be not so much an impediment as a positive boon to VM's survival plans.