It's looking grim again. Is gold the would-be saviour?
Discussion
I've got some investment in physical gold, so been watching proceedings over the last few months with more than passing interest.
Gold (and my investment therefore!) has taken a beating in the last few weeks, after pulling strongly to 1800 from a similar low in September.
I wish I had the sort of in-depth knowledge of the economy and related behaviours that would explain what we can expect from gold going forward.
I guess, my layman’s view is reflected in this article. Then again, my hoping it’s right doesn’t make it so!
http://www.goldmadesimplenews.com/gold/gold-price-...
[i]You are here: Gold News // Analysis // Gold price breaks down through the 200 daily moving average
Wednesday, December 14th, 2011 | Posted by Thomas PatersonGold price breaks down through the 200 daily moving average
Yesterday when gold was trading $1665 we warned:
This $1617 level is really the last line in the sand before we might see lower prices. We will have a much clearer idea where gold is heading in the next few hours and days, but right now gold is right at some crucial levels and should be watched very keenly.
About two hours after we wrote that the gold price quickly broke down and headed towards the 200 daily moving average at around $1617.
Gold has now broken through this level and is now trading around $1605.
As you can see from the chart we have to go back all the way to the start of 2009 for the last time gold broke through its 200 DMA.
So what is happening? Well, it’s just the small matter of the dawning realization that all those gimmicks we pulled globally back in 2008 simply postponed the pain and papered over the fact that the entire global banking system is insolvent.
But this time its much worse, in a bid to ‘bail out’ the banks all sovereign countries have done is pile on huge debts on the backs of an already over indebted taxpayer – so now we are also faced with the insolvency of pretty much all western nations too. Not a nice thought.
So now we have banks not willing to lend to one another (again) and insolvent banks desperately trying to find ‘liquidity’ to roll the great ponzi experiment over for another month. One way to grab some liquidity is the forced sale of gold – this is what is pushing down the gold price.
The action in gold is very reminiscent. of 2008 when gold was chopped by a 1/3 going from $1000 to $700 as the scramble for liquidity was well and truly ‘on’.
With hindsight it was clear that buying gold back then was one of the smartest things you could have done in the face of the ‘great liquidation’. The fundamentals haven’t changed a bit and in fact a stronger now than ever for gold – will this prove to be another ‘smartest things you could have done’ moment a year from now?[/i]
p.s. why can't I format the text above? I'm using the right tags?
Gold (and my investment therefore!) has taken a beating in the last few weeks, after pulling strongly to 1800 from a similar low in September.
I wish I had the sort of in-depth knowledge of the economy and related behaviours that would explain what we can expect from gold going forward.
I guess, my layman’s view is reflected in this article. Then again, my hoping it’s right doesn’t make it so!
http://www.goldmadesimplenews.com/gold/gold-price-...
[i]You are here: Gold News // Analysis // Gold price breaks down through the 200 daily moving average
Wednesday, December 14th, 2011 | Posted by Thomas PatersonGold price breaks down through the 200 daily moving average
Yesterday when gold was trading $1665 we warned:
This $1617 level is really the last line in the sand before we might see lower prices. We will have a much clearer idea where gold is heading in the next few hours and days, but right now gold is right at some crucial levels and should be watched very keenly.
About two hours after we wrote that the gold price quickly broke down and headed towards the 200 daily moving average at around $1617.
Gold has now broken through this level and is now trading around $1605.
As you can see from the chart we have to go back all the way to the start of 2009 for the last time gold broke through its 200 DMA.
So what is happening? Well, it’s just the small matter of the dawning realization that all those gimmicks we pulled globally back in 2008 simply postponed the pain and papered over the fact that the entire global banking system is insolvent.
But this time its much worse, in a bid to ‘bail out’ the banks all sovereign countries have done is pile on huge debts on the backs of an already over indebted taxpayer – so now we are also faced with the insolvency of pretty much all western nations too. Not a nice thought.
So now we have banks not willing to lend to one another (again) and insolvent banks desperately trying to find ‘liquidity’ to roll the great ponzi experiment over for another month. One way to grab some liquidity is the forced sale of gold – this is what is pushing down the gold price.
The action in gold is very reminiscent. of 2008 when gold was chopped by a 1/3 going from $1000 to $700 as the scramble for liquidity was well and truly ‘on’.
With hindsight it was clear that buying gold back then was one of the smartest things you could have done in the face of the ‘great liquidation’. The fundamentals haven’t changed a bit and in fact a stronger now than ever for gold – will this prove to be another ‘smartest things you could have done’ moment a year from now?[/i]
p.s. why can't I format the text above? I'm using the right tags?
REALIST123 said:
AdvocatusD said:
Heard on the grape vine that Bank Calyon (a french bank) is closing their derivatives and commodities desk, and the slump is the impact of the closure.
Lord knows what's real anymore!
Really? One french bank stops dealing in it and Gold drops 10%? Lord knows what's real anymore!
And you think that might be a safe investment.............................
Will watch the linky when I get a moment (or 1.30hours anyway!).
Interesting article this: http://moneymorning.com/2011/12/15/dont-be-fooled-...
It was interesting reading, well poised, etc until the writer had to go and spoil it by saying USD 5000 expected "after that (2012)"!
I really doubt that will happen.
Interesting article this: http://moneymorning.com/2011/12/15/dont-be-fooled-...
It was interesting reading, well poised, etc until the writer had to go and spoil it by saying USD 5000 expected "after that (2012)"!
I really doubt that will happen.
RichyBoy said:
Just putting this here to refer back to next year:
2012 Gold Averages: Goldman $1,810/oz, Barclays $2,000/oz and UBS $2,050/oz
Excellent. I like the idea of setting a marker and the chance for some of us to say "I told you so"!2012 Gold Averages: Goldman $1,810/oz, Barclays $2,000/oz and UBS $2,050/oz
What do we predict the value to be in $ per ounce within one week of either side of 1 March 2012?
I'm going for $1760.
Edited by AdvocatusD on Thursday 12th January 14:24
Digga said:
More to come still I reckon - I reckon those predictions from last year look to be in the right ballpark.
AdvocatusD's $1760 for March is looking very sound.
Right, time to have another punt.AdvocatusD's $1760 for March is looking very sound.
BoE is printing more cash, Greece might cease to become a headline issue soon (doesn't mean problem is going away) and I think the fundamentals for gold performance over the last decade haven't changed.
I reckon, this month will see further falls, but I think over the next 3 months we will see an increase.
What do we say for this time next month? I.e. within one week either side of 20 April 2012?
I'm going with $1780.
Hmmm...
It's been good couple of months generally for gold, but not a great couple of weeks.
That being said, gold gone up rather a lot today on the back of the Presidential election result.
I'm suprised at this. I would have thought that it would go down given the euphoria/temporary feeling of stability that an election gives?
Any thoughts?
It's been good couple of months generally for gold, but not a great couple of weeks.
That being said, gold gone up rather a lot today on the back of the Presidential election result.
I'm suprised at this. I would have thought that it would go down given the euphoria/temporary feeling of stability that an election gives?
Any thoughts?
Very interesting indeed.
Gold be down at this level twice since the high of 1900, and has revived both time to a healthy 1780ish.
I'm still fairly optimistic about it, and it's certainly worked well for me personally thus far.
I think the basic economic conditions that have driven gold up thus far, remain the same. No doubt that it's tougher for gold to still performs as it has the last ten years...
Gold be down at this level twice since the high of 1900, and has revived both time to a healthy 1780ish.
I'm still fairly optimistic about it, and it's certainly worked well for me personally thus far.
I think the basic economic conditions that have driven gold up thus far, remain the same. No doubt that it's tougher for gold to still performs as it has the last ten years...
DonkeyApple said:
Vampire squid doesn't like gold anymore: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-26/gold-s-cy...
Well, maybe the world's finally realising to do the opposite of what GS says. Gold's broken through 1600 nicely...
Wish I had the sort of understanding of the markets you appear to!
I'm very simplistic.
(All arguably) Recession bad. Growth bad. Debt very bad. Gold responds to basic economic fear. Gold good!
All good things come to and end though. Hope I have the sense to pull out before it goes...
I feel there's 2000 per ounce in the market yet, if only fleetingly.
I'm very simplistic.
(All arguably) Recession bad. Growth bad. Debt very bad. Gold responds to basic economic fear. Gold good!
All good things come to and end though. Hope I have the sense to pull out before it goes...
I feel there's 2000 per ounce in the market yet, if only fleetingly.
DonkeyApple said:
I suspect the 'Fruit and Nut' has been in big demand. 
DA, nothing personal and I am sure you know I value your contributions to the thread, but I don't see how you can say you think $2000 per ounce is potentially achievable, but generally seem to say gold is a dud investment and all the "bug" are making a big mistake.Buying today at 1600 and selling at 2000 is a rather large profit.
I completely take on board your points made and I think I agree with most of them given the limits of my knowledge, but at the same time you do not need to temper your statements once in a way!
BJWoods said:
dash to gold? - if the EU/Cyprus government can just raid bank savings accounts..
ie public thinking in EU countries like Italy, Spain, Portgugal etc... if they can do that in Cyprus......
Interesting to see what effect it will have on gold. I think we can be sure of one thing, that gold won't behave like we think it should!ie public thinking in EU countries like Italy, Spain, Portgugal etc... if they can do that in Cyprus......
Well, it up past the important 1600 marker, but I don't think it's going to soar to anywhere near 2000 (or even 1700) yet (if ever!).
What is interesting though, is that in the event of a big, new "fear" gold has reacted the way it has from 2002 - 2011...
There may be some puff in the old girl yet.
What is interesting though, is that in the event of a big, new "fear" gold has reacted the way it has from 2002 - 2011...
There may be some puff in the old girl yet.
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