ebola, anyone else mildly terrified?

[2013BRM]

http://news.sky.com/story/1293274/ebola-outbreak-s...

After reading this book,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hot_Zone

I certainly am, if this disease hits a populated area then it can possibly mutate to become an airborne virus

[2013BRM]

Bill said:

randlemarcus said:

A long way down my list of worries. It's a pretty pathetic virus as it stands, even though the morbidity is high (and that counts against it). AIDS has signally failed to become airborne.

It's nasty but it kills people far too quickly for its own good. Flu is far more dangerous because it's already easily transmitted and fairly unpleasant.

Not enough is known about it to discount it, the Reston strain is thought to have become airborn, killing monkeys completely isolated bar the air conditioning

[2013BRM]

smegmore said:

zygalski said:

Mobility of the population is the most worrying aspect of a modern pandemic.

Definitely, the availability of world wide air travel would mean the virus spreading at an exponential rate, a far cry from the Spanish flu of 1918.

I can recommend the book Hot Zone which is an accurate description of ebola and, to quote Stephen King, 'the most terrifying thing he has ever read'

[2013BRM]

otolith said:

System is working by the looks of it!

The virus has an incubation period of up to 21 days, how is it working? The Nigerian detained with feverish symptoms may have transmitted it to many people by the time he arrived in Brum

[2013BRM]

otolith said:

Ebola is not contagious during the incubation period.

Ah, thanks, I didn't realise that

[2013BRM]

QuantumTokoloshi said:

The person is diagnosed and quarantined, no problem there. The worry is someone not knowing they have the disease, walking around London for a few days before getting the full symptoms, spreading it around.

It isn't contagious until the symptoms present, ie you're coughing up your spleen. I am pretty sure that the levels of protection this person is under and the quality of care will be second to none

[2013BRM]

so, that'll be a yes then

[2013BRM]

tumble dryer said:

"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary."

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/h/h_l_me...

TD

Oh good grief, this is like tinfoil hattery inverted, if you look at the health officials interviewed and people who have contacts out there they seem pretty alarmed about it, they are playing it all down if anything.
A couple of things to consider, how many doctors and carers have since left the scene and the other is Hajj, millions of Muslims from Africa and the rest of the world converging in one place

[2013BRM]

Bill said:

bosshog said:

Its incredibly contagious

It really isn't: http://www.geek.com/science/so-just-how-contagious...

It has potential to ravage Africa due to poor healthcare and their habit of touching the bodies of the dead, but it will go pretty much nowhere in the first world.

Absolutely correct, in it's present form, the real concern is that this virus emerges with different qualities and the clincher would be the ability to become airborn as in the Reston outbreak

https://web.stanford.edu/group/virus/filo/ebor.htm...

luckily that only killed the monkeys

[2013BRM]

bosshog said:

2013BRM said:

Absolutely correct, in it's present form, the real concern is that this virus emerges with different qualities and the clincher would be the ability to become airborn as in the Reston outbreak

https://web.stanford.edu/group/virus/filo/ebor.htm...

luckily that only killed the monkeys

Perhaps I should rephrase that somewhat: "It incredibility contagious in close proximity". Just ask the spanish nurse. We, in the Uk, live and work in close proximity of each other. You touch a door, and 30 other people will touch that door. You touch a lift button , 100 others touch that button, etc. We don't know how long ebola can survive outside of the body, but lest say a couple to 6 hours (being optimistic). There's still large window from body to body (or close proximity if people sneeze, cough).

The only hope I have currently is that past outbreaks have got under control, perhaps we can in the Uk be organised enough to repeat here on our soil, but it won;t hold if the rest of the (non-first) world has an epidemic as the movement of people is too great (and a massive economic/social impact if stopped)

Yup, someone can be infected, travel some distance, land then show symptoms/be contagious, and Hajj is in a few days time

[2013BRM]

Art0ir said:

I'd say a case in the UK is almost guaranteed.

The difference is, we have a proper health system, hygiene standards, we don't leave bodies in the street or attack medical workers and most of us don't practice voodoo in place of conventional medicine.

The chance of it spreading in the West is very, very slim.

yet you have frontline Doctors saying they are scared and have no effective ppe? really/

[2013BRM]

Bill said:

2013BRM said:

yet you have frontline Doctors saying they are scared and have no effective ppe? really/

Where?

No PPE is idiot proof, level 2 is sufficient if used properly as this isn't airborne.

gingerbeard stated it a couple of posts ago, he and his staff will be dealing with it, he wants level 4, I don't blame him but hey, feel free to volunteer with level 2, I'm sure he'll appreciate it

[2013BRM]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

he shoots, he scores

[2013BRM]

The UN Special Envoy on Ebola has warned that the world might have to live with the disease forever unless almost all countries take action to fight it

Medical staff across Britain will take part in emergency exercises to test their readiness to deal with Ebola should there be an outbreak in the UK

I think I'm mildly terrified now as I travel a lot

[2013BRM]

Mr Whippy said:

It's probably already too late in that regard.

We're already seeing new infections within "non-infected" areas, so it's already out there and potentially spreading between people who never even stepped foot in Western Africa.


When that is the case, stopping travellers from specific areas will not guarantee anything, it may just slow the inevitable.

What they need to do is stop travel entirely... but that is bad news for other reasons.



Right now it's a toss up between over-reacting and causing economic issues, or under-reacting and have things go awry.


I think we're two steps behind all the way. We need to be at least on step with what is unfolding to stand a chance of best case scenario outcomes.

Really we should have been doing what we're doing now, months ago.

Dave

If you look at the reactions to the initial post back then you'll see it was not considered by many to be a threat, so it's very unlikely any Government would consider spending money back then

[2013BRM]

EbolaVictim said:

benjj said:

As far as I know we still don't know where ebola even comes from, other than the fact that one possibility is it's source is somewhere in Kitum Cave.

Apparently it's a nice place. Apart from possible infection perhaps?

http://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/ShowUserReviews-g2942...

very nice but it should really be nuked from orbit......it's the only way

[2013BRM]

Jimbeaux said:

Bill said:

Jimbeaux said:

So the nurse calls to say her fever is at 99. The idiot at the CDC reads a chart and says congratulations, you are good up until 100! So, the fact that this nurse was one caring for a person who recently exploded from Ebola didn't maybe give her and extra half degree as a bonus prize?? Common sense has taken a direct hit in his nutsack. The CDC head comes on TV saying she should never have gotten on the plane. Thank you Sherlock; however, since it is your people making dumbassed mistakes like this, and you are in charge of them, it is time for you to go to the house and let the incompetents in charge of you find someone else.

And... They sent the patient away with antibiotics at first and when he came back two days later didn't isolate him immediately. They then didn't get the nursing staff suited up until the diagnosis was confirmed a further two days later.

They fked up big time, and the medical director (IIRC) has made a public apology.

He should be fired as well. Find people who can do the job, there are plenty around who can.

yup sack some sense into him, a bungle like that is inexcusable

[2013BRM]

AshVX220 said:

Back On Topic and my first real contribution to the discussion at hand (Other than the Clancy stuff).

If this gets to the UK< I think we'll be in a far worse state to deal with it than the US. We're a far more densely populated nation for a start.

And as has been mentioned, if it evolves into an airbourne virus with a much lower mortality rate, we'd be in even deeper st I think.

This winter will be a nightmare for people with Flu.

I don't know, the Yank in charge of the CDC will take some beating for being dense

[2013BRM]

hidetheelephants said:

bosshog said:

..praying its the second...

Thing is, as something as deadly as this, surely cost of doing more now outweighs the cost/risk even if nothing too bad comes of it. If they get it wrong it will be total disaster for the Uk and world at large. Its seems such a no brainer for me. I know they spent god knows what on the vaccines for swine flu, which didn't mount to much, but what if it did - they would have save 100,000 of lives. With something as deadly as this I don't get it.

They didn't buy enough for everyone, although I forget exactly what proportion of the population it would theoretically cover. It wasn't a vaccine either, it was that tamiflu bks. Profitable for the maker.

otolith said:

The military must have more people trained and equipped to work safely in a hot environment than anyone else.

Trogging about in a giant green condom and a respirator isn't really the same as dealing with leaky and contagious patients using a barrier protocol.

No but can you think of a profession that's got a closer match? being taught the niceties of persistent nerve agent and experience in a gas chamber gives the Military the edge and they tend to follow training quite well too

[2013BRM]

The Hypno-Toad said:

And the prize for the Biggest tt Of The Week goes to...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-he...

I'm guessing his browser history probably contains the words David & Icke a fair bit...

heard that on the local news yesterday and thought, what a berk, and someone rightly pointed out that his daughter would become the centre of attention at school making her life very difficult