Tory plan for Budget March 2015 to help win election

[Welshbeef]

Anyone think they will increase min wage to £7 from Oct 2015 and up min tax threshold to £11k. And also commit that all public sector will pay the living wage be it directly employer or subcontracted (UK wide so Scott's too).


Reason - if they lose labour cannot reverse it, if they win they are seen as champions for the lower earners.





Also I think its pretty sensible to do- and also cut benefits to fund work apprentices.

[Welshbeef]

rover 623gsi said:

the govt has already committed to raising the personal allowance from £10,000 to £10,500 from April 2015 so promising to increase it to £11k wouldn't be particularly earth shattering.

But its a huge impact and would come in from 2016 Apr. Sure if labour did come in they could cancel this and then Torys or anyone else could use the line "a labour govt taxing the hardest and lowest paid in the country while the Torys have them a tax cut".

Labour used the line tax cut for millionaires - well I wonder how well a tax rise for the lowest paid would go down.


It would also nullify the Labour 10% tax band - so they would have to either up the tax on low paid or keep the Tory policy a victory for the Torys or have to do both but then where does the spending cuts or tax rises come from?

[Welshbeef]

So you ignored the other bits I stated as real options to help the lowest paid and I used on the income tax threshold rising further... Guess you are a labour supporter from birth to grave

[Welshbeef]

Super Slo Mo said:

Welshbeef said:

It would also nullify the Labour 10% tax band - so they would have to either up the tax on low paid or keep the Tory policy a victory for the Torys or have to do both but then where does the spending cuts or tax rises come from?

There is no 10% band (other than for savings), Gordon Brown axed this ages ago, admittedly he re-instated it for a year, but it slipped away without anyone noticing or really complaining.

I'm fully aware of that - but in the recent party conf one of the pledges by Labour was to introduce a 10% income tax band and to increase the 45% to 50% one pays for the other apparently.

They also said about the mansion tax expecting £1.5billion to invest in the NHS and close the funding Gap - though as its been confirmed there will be a £30billion gap by 2020 ed Balls didn't really answer the question.

Ed balls also ignored the question what will you cut or increase taxes on to eliminate the expected £85billion defecit ? Answer he came out with was a £400m saving... Um that's great in isolation but what about the other £80billion what's the plan? His sole response and other Labour responses is the economy will improve to find it.
So given the forecasts are not great for the EU and 50% of out GDP goes there well that and a slowdown in China = contraction /recession in the UK. That means zero deficit reduction.



So what is the plan? What will labour do differently to Tory? A genuine question especially as they have signed up to the spending plans by the Torys which goes near on the whole length of the next parliment - including a £25billion public sector cut.... Which nothing has been detailed about what how which who will be cut.

[Welshbeef]

Jasandjules said:

I think that it will be too little too late to save them.

But they will be setting up labour to fail - snookering them for a better term.


Labour continue with the suggested increases = they agree with Tory policy
Labour reverse these policies - seen as anti working class and want tax rises for the poorest and hardest workers
Labour continue it and scrap their pledge - Tory win
Labour continue and increase it by their pledge - just what else are you going to cut?


Labour continue - questions instantly what will you cut to fund it?

[Welshbeef]

Well Govt borrowing is up 10% on last year... So give always would unless things improve look naive and the voters should realise.


However it raises a difficult issue for labour just how do you offer anything different to what the Tory's are delivering? Its either much more cuts or raising taxes. On the raising of Taxes IIRC income tax total take is c£130billion so to close the current deficit of £100billion would require the Labour Govt to increase income taxes by 75%.... Just think about that for a second! Now the realisation that cutting spending is the only option available - its needs to be quick else the EU recession issue will snowball and push us back to £160billion deficit before we know it + interest % on our borrowing will increase resulting in even more tax rises/spending cuts.

[Welshbeef]

BlackLabel said:

Tax cuts and/or public sector salary rises have to be paid for from somewhere. How could the Tories promise such things whilst still meeting the deficit reduction targets?

Of course they could say something like 'we're slashing foreign aid by half and with the savings we'll cut tax X by Y percent'. But they won't do this because 1-they don't want to and 2-even if they did want to the Lib Dems would not let them get away with it.

Edited by BlackLabel on Tuesday 21st October 15:36

So if Labour Pledge to lower lowest income tax rate to £0 so everyone suddenly pays tax to help cut the defecit. Now do you think those impacted will vote for that ? Or do you think they would be selfish and if a party promises to increase tax free income tax of increase min wage then you'd vote for them.



Actually increasing min wage may actually help with wage inflation issues the auK is facing

[Welshbeef]

Axionknight said:

Tell us, how did such high levels of income tax help in years gone by?

That is the point - so Labour have only one option to cut at a drastically higher rate than the Tory current actions plus the future plans. Considering that there is £25bilkion of committed spending cuts not yet identified to deal with by whoever is in power then add in a further £100billion of cuts just where do the cuts fall? Labours respondse is the economy will recover - what if it doesn't ? What is the plan B? Ah yes halve wealfare spend... 0% pay rises for a decade on oublic sector jobs removal on Final salary pensions for public sector

Um what else as its still too much spending.

[Welshbeef]

Axionknight said:

My understanding is that one government cannot hold the government that succeeds it to such an arrangement, only if the Tories claimed they would do it and used that to "drop Labour in it" would it work, and barely at all at that, as much of the electorate have a short memory.

Alistair Darling issued a spending review some time in 2009 with regards to tidying up the UK public spending figures by 2014/2015, but it was derided by just about everyone in Government as there was no way that the government that would end up winning the 2010 election could be held to account by such a plan.

One person who lambasted this idea/plan above all others was a certain George Osbourne - in opposition at the time, who has, since gaining office, made claims similar to those he derided with regards to spending plans continuing beyond the date of the 2015 election.

They would and have - labour has Torys have. A win win situation for party in power

[Welshbeef]

fblm said:

Welshbeef said:

But they will be setting up labour to fail - snookering them for a better term.

It would be nice if they could actually run the country for the benefit of the country and not adopt Labours disgusting scorched earth/poison pill tactics.

Agreed though the Torys are kmown as the nasty party so

[Welshbeef]

crankedup said:

So what's the annual interest payment on our current deficit, about 50 billion.

Interest payment on our DEBT not the deficit.

However were paying nearly £60billion in interest and our deficit is £100billion. But the deficit is from overspending on Welfare and the vast payrises Labour gave to nurses and doctors totally unfunded and remain as such - plus the public sector final salary pensions operate no fund and were seeing the outflows being £15billion and rocketing more than employees pay in.

Its impossible to create a state public sector pension fund so this issue will continue to grow in addition dwindling oil tax revenues - god only knows how SNP would have made it work as in Indy country their forecasts assumed min oil price $110 that's at the all time high range were at $80 a barrel today so a vast gap to plug with higher taxes.

[Welshbeef]

edh said:

Ok maybe I should have written "pushed us into significant deficit" or something similar. They were plodding along with deficits in line with most UK governments, anticipating all the lovely tax income from an economy besotted with finance, borrowing and selling debt to each other. That appeared to be the financial orthodoxy across the world. Then it all came crashing down. Even if we'd been running a balanced budget, there's nothing that would have prepared us for 7 years of £100bn+ deficits.

Thing is Welfare total spend is c£200billion its roughly 50:50 state pension and all other benefits - so given MOD education NHS prisons are all now totally cut to the bone - relatively speaking - while welfare has had hardly any cuts.


So where should the cuts fall?
If you say raise taxes ... Well total income tax is only £150billion so to find a further £100billion on top of that will crush the economy and send millions into repossessions as suddenly take home pay is cut in half.

Hoping/relying for the economy to recover just doesn't work especially as debt interest will increase and get to unsustainable levels. Remember we pay £60billion in debt interest that's 60% of the non state pension welfare budget.....

[Welshbeef]

edh said:

There are plenty of other taxes apart from income tax. I suggested a few ideas earlier in the thread for cuts and tax changes. I think there are huge amounts to go at, but you'd need to be radical. Squeezing welfare sounds great, but can you suggest which benefits to cut? child tax credit or working tax credit for the low paid? Housing benefit? DLA or PIP or maybe ESA?

But a land tax - what is that actually for? We pay council tax.
What about those who are wealthy but rent why should they avoid this putative tax?
VAT increases - given wages have increased 0.9% on average and inflation is now 1.2% suddenly upping VAT just where will people find the money to pay for the extra? Possibly downgrade from brands to own label - but what about those who have already done all these easy wins and are up against it?

Taxes on country where profit is generated is good - though one issue how much of our corporation tax take is from profits earned overseas.... We could end up worse off. Remember the UK is moving to a 20% corporation tax rate half the USA and apart from Ireland the sharpest in EU.