Predictions for the General Election

[brenflys777]

With only a couple of weeks to go before the armchair experts came out to say "I knew that'd happen" or it was "inevitable" it seems a good time to get a post going where these predictions can be seen...

To keep it brief here's my five predictions for the main parties.

- The Conservatives will scrape a majority win over Labour.

- UKIP will get around 15 seats, but around 20% of the vote.

- SNP won't win a majority of Scottish seats.

- Greens won't have an MP.

- Libs will lose half their seats including Clegg.

[brenflys777]

cloggy said:

That is not a prediction, that is a wish list.

I knew you'd say that.

[brenflys777]

funkyrobot said:

http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...

I'm not sure what point you were making with this or if you were just making people aware of another thread.

The linked thread is a poll of who PHers say they are voting for, not who they think will win, lose or coalesce

[brenflys777]

As reflected in my OP prediction the SNP seem to overshadow any debate but I'm not convinced it will be reflected in the results.

The media, Conservatives & Labour all have reasons to inflate the SNPs chances, I hope they are proved wrong, but my exposure to Scottish politics is from Scots who live and work in England.

[brenflys777]

BJG1 said:

Are you being serious here? Because if you are I'd quite like to relieve you of some money. I'll give you 8-1 ukip win fewer seats than that for a start. There is no way on earth ukip are winning 15 seats FFS, it'll be 2-4.

Yes and no.

I'm being serious, no I don't gamble.

Having said that I don't expect to be completely right and I might be completely wrong. I didn't expect the current coalition last time. I think this election has the potential to be the most surprising in my lifetime, there are so many variables and more parties who can potentially win seats than in the past. We'll find out soon enough

[brenflys777]

brenflys777 said:

With only a couple of weeks to go before the armchair experts came out to say "I knew that'd happen" or it was "inevitable" it seems a good time to get a post going where these predictions can be seen...

To keep it brief here's my five predictions for the main parties.

- The Conservatives will scrape a majority win over Labour. YES + A BIT!

- UKIP will get around 15 seats, but around 20% of the vote. NO. AS MANY VOTES AS SNP + LIB DEMS BUT ONLY 1 SEAT & 13%

- SNP won't win a majority of Scottish seats. EPIC FAIL.

- Greens won't have an MP. NO. BRIGHTON ACTUALLY.

- Libs will lose half their seats including Clegg. NO. FAR WORSE BUT CLEGG HOLDS.

Bugger. I don't believe the doomsayers and I'm glad some very promising new conservatives have arrived. The Carnage of the opposition leaders will provide an opportunity to change, but the number of votes per seat per party is extraordinary.

Edited by brenflys777 on Friday 8th May 13:46