How long would the EU last post Brexit?

[anonymous-user]

Hypothetical question, but could the EU survive losing it's third largest contributor, considering a high proportion of member Countries have struggling economies.

[anonymous-user]

Agreed but surely that is unsustainable, especially when Greece goes pop, which it will.

[anonymous-user]

Kermit power said:

ATG said:

France and Germany have a combined GDP of about 6.5 trillion EUR. The UK's net contribution to the EU is about 10 billion EUR ...

Careful! You're not allowed to use logic in discussing the EU on here!

Fortunately he hasn't. Comparing budget contributions to GDP is illogical. Greek GDP is ten times your EU budget contributions. So what? The risk to the EU of a Brexit isn't one of budget deficits but of nationalist contagion. In fact if you're going to bring GDP into this it's perhaps worth considering what happens to the GDP per capita of the EU if you leave.

(ps The EU has a GDP/capita of $36k compared to yours of $46k!)

Edited by anonymous-user on Monday 2nd May 16:06

[anonymous-user]

ATG said:

It's a sensible comparison because it shows how easily they could find an additional EUR10bn to plug the hole we'd leave. It's a tiny percentage of their economy.

If you me and Dave went to the pub for a few drinks and agreed to shove a fiver each into the kitty, you can't tell how affordable that fiver is to reach of us by looking at the other's contributions. You have to look at our individual incomes.

GDP isn't income! Both your initial comparison and analogy make no sense at all. 10bn might be 'buttons' but it's buttons all of you have to borrow because your GDP per capita is falling.

[anonymous-user]

lenny007 said:

I think assuming France and Germany will make up the shortfall is naive. It'll be spread amongst the 26 member states and for the smaller countries, that'll be where the contention is.

Lets see what happens when Malta, Portugal, Cyprus, Estonia, etc think when they've got to find their portion of the £10bn.

Just because someone can pay doesn't mean they'll want to.

Good post.

[anonymous-user]

ATG said:

I said the Euro zone is likely to expand, not the EU.

So how would that work then? You are confusing yourself

[anonymous-user]

ATG said:

What measure of economic activity would you prefer to use as a yardstick of whether 10bn was a large or small about for a given country to find? Most economists' first port of call is going to be GDP.

National budget surplus would be a good place to start. Oh look, 10bn just swallowed all of Germanys 2015 record surplus! They are going to be thrilled. Most economists use GDP huh? Wow. As appeals to authority go, that's right down there.

ATG said:

Given didn't bother to explain why the analogies were inappropriate, let me answer you like this, "I'm right, you're wrong. Nah, nah, nah."

Well that's a better argument than comparing to GDP. GDP isn't income. I'd assumed that was explanation enough as to why your pub analogy doesn't work. They rarely do.

I already said a 10bn hole in the EU budget isn't going to break it. They are nothing if not adept at financial conjuring. As another poster has said, if you leave it might actually be good for the block, allowing them to federalise faster, which would also be good for you. Anyway, it's looking increasingly like you won't leave, at which point you'll have bluffed and lost and then they will fvck you, pour encourager les autre. Enjoy.

[anonymous-user]

gothatway said:

fblm said:

it's looking increasingly like you won't leave

Really ? I get the feeling that it's going the other way.

I hope you're right but GBPUSD would suggest the big money thinks otherwise. Obama's intervention coincided with the turning point.