Would you change your Ref vote if you could go back time?

[Mario149]

Been talk of buyer's/non-buyer's remorse so thought I'd stick this up

[Mario149]

vonuber said:

I've heard from at least 3 people who didn't vote because they thought it wouldn't matter. All under 25 too.

Muppets.

Yep, such a shame. I work with young people indirectly in an organization that, amongst other things, encourages them to get involved in political and local issues and support their local community. Hopefully the work we are doing, which is on a national scale (big responsibility!), will engage more young people into the process which is so critical for their future.

[Mario149]

Rerun of vote looks like it would now yield a 2% result in favour of Remain at this point, on PH only of course.

[Mario149]

bmw535i said:

This does seem very silly. I work with a lot of young men under 25 and almost all of those I know and have heard of have voted out - apart from the Scottish. I wonder if people will say they are racist or patriotic when I say they are soldiers?

Misguided?!

[Mario149]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Which would require treaty change etc etc, all of which any EU member can veto. Even Poland doesn't want it by the sounds of that article. Non story.

[Mario149]

Otispunkmeyer said:

bloomen said:

Voted remain. Still would. Not because I love the EU but because the status quo is adequate enough and considerably more adequate than how the nearish future will end up.

As the reality, or total lack thereof from both sides, roll in it's not getting prettier any time soon.

And I'm enjoying the wailing from the young folks. The little sts should've actually voted. There's a hard lesson for them.

Why are people so convinced of the future? Do they have a crystal ball? Can you tell me next week's lottery result?

Whilst leave = Doom and stay = good are valid predictions, they're just that. Predictions. Whether we stay or leave the banks could fk it for us all just as easily IMO. And what if, after staying, in 5 years time we've fully signed up and ditched the pound for the euro? What then? Is that still good?

No one can know the future, it's by definition uncertain. Stop being afraid of it.

No one can predict the far future which is when we may or may not benefit from staying in or out of the EU. We can try and model it and show potential outcomes but of course no one knows. If they can say theyre lying. But what we do know is that now, and for the next few years, we're going to pay a price for leaving, or even just saying we're going to leave - that has started to happen now and will continue. We, and pretty much the rest of the world as it happens, are right now paying a price for a "gamble", when we could just take the "gamble" without the initial price. All the extra cost is giving us is *possibly* some limitation of movement, but it's looking unlikely, and some notion of having more sovereignty which the average person in the street is never going to notice. I can't help but get the impression that some brexisters accuse remainers of having a crystal ball, but are then happy to claim that we are of course going to be better off out in the future. It's like some group level cognitive dissonance. Or maybe some brexiteers have the crystal ball monopoly, I don't know.

[Mario149]

Question just popped into my head: which is the worse democratic betrayal?

1) Ignoring the result of the referendum and staying because it can be seen that a majority no longer support the result

2) Following through on the referendum and leaving, but not delivering any of the promises used to secure that victory.

[Mario149]

Otispunkmeyer said:

I'm not saying we are going to be better or worse off. I don't know. Initial turns are just ripples from the shock, not paying any attention to markets till it dies down and things carry on and people stop running around like headless chickens. Equally I am not going to say we'd be better or worse off if we stayed in. Of course we wouldn't be having these ripples (and we've survived worse by the way and you don't have to go too far back to see it), but who knows what lies in wait if we stay.

Remain would appear to have been the better short term choice, perhaps even medium term. But long term? Anyone's guess. I have tried to make an educated guess and my logic lead me down on leave. Besides I have always been a proponent of having less short term-ism and more long term-ism. Its the former that has gotten us in a pickle time and time again. Thats part of my leave vote, but of course I am sure many other leavers saw a quick fix to immigration and the NHS or whatever they're bleating on about. For me neither of those were an issue.

We just need less of the sky is falling rhetoric and more of the thinking about how best we deal with the hand dealt.

Edited by Otispunkmeyer on Tuesday 28th June 09:39

Interesting answer thanks. I kinda did similar, I just decided that 5+ years or so I was seeing until everything settled (not going fantastically mind, just settled) according to the best (and pretty much only) pro-Brexit plan I saw was too long, so much could happen in that time. I mean we average a recession every 10-15 years for a start, so we're about due one soon anyway. Then the other day (and I admit I should have done this before voting) I modeled a few scenarios with varying Brexit/Remain GDP growth rates and tried to keep the numbers realistic. Turns out the best sensible case I could come up with for breaking even in terms of recovering to the GDP we would have likely had if we Stayed was ~8 years. Worst case was over 15 years

[Mario149]

Pan Pan Pan said:

Only if you tell me what will happen when the basket case economies of the EU come looking for their next bailout which will be in a few months time, and they find that the EU`s second greatest contributor of funds INTO EU coffers has left, leaving only Germany as a significant contributor INTO EU coffers/ How long do you think Germany, and the German people are going to be willing to bear the financial brunt of keeping the failed and failing EU alive?
Why do you think hundreds of thousands of EU nationals want to get INTO the UK every year. Simple answer, because there are virtually no jobs in the EU, with colossal levels of unemployment in many EU countries (Even France FFS)
It will be a matter of when, not if, the rotten, corrupt sinking SS EU slides deservedly beneath the waves, and fortunately, the UK has launched itself off in a lifeboat, rather than handcuffing itself to the railings of the EU`s SS Titanic.

Edited by Pan Pan Pan on Tuesday 28th June 10:10

The problem is, as far as I'm concerned and anyone who realizes that whatever happens we'll still have to trade with the EU in the future, is that while we would hypothetically be in a life boat, that lifeboat would still be tied to the ship's railing. If the EU goes down, we will too. So if leaving precipitates it's sinking, we'll have brought havoc on ourselves.

And of course, that all relies on your initial assumption that the EU is sinking to start with, which most people in the know don't agree with.

[Mario149]

Otispunkmeyer said:

A major reason for me wanting out is the way this lot carry on:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/05/prime-m...

When voting I hadn't actually decied which way to go even walking to the station. I stood in front of the booth for 10 minutes trying to go through the logic again in my head. But I just couldn't come down on remain because these guys disgust me so much.

I mean if they kicked him and some of his cronies out and they were replaced by people with a less binary vision (Juncker seems very much to be a my way or no way person) then I'd be inclined to change my mind. As long as they are pulling the strings I don't feel the EU has a good future ahead of it in the long term. My vote really is against the EU as a bureaucratic monster headed by undemocratic power vultures. It was not a vote against Europe.

I like being in Europe. I like Europe. I like the people. But the EU? No. It is death by a 1000 cuts creeping bureaucracy that is underhandedly trying to force some kind of unified utopia onto all members like a one sizes fits all glove. With the best will in the world I'd say that is unrealistic.

I do realist of course that the British Government, has in the past, been equally mad with its stifling bureaucracy and power hungry cretins. I am not old enough to have lived through that time, but I am not daft enough to think our ways have been or are much better. But at least we have a more immediate say about who runs the show here and we can do something about them. I get the feeling you'd have crow-bar Jean Claude Juncker's cold dead body off the EU throne before he'd give it up!

Yeah, I can def see that EU officials don't make it easy to like them! But for me, I was just thinking that none of these people are forever. Juncker will be gone in 3 years time etc

[Mario149]

Pan Pan Pan said:

Don't worry When all of the headless chickens have finally stopped charging around screaming doom and gloom, and calmed down, and the EU sinks beneath the waves of basket case bail outs, and the mass unemployment that exists NOW in the EU, people will see that getting off the sinking ship was the right thing to do after all.

I'd like to order one of your finest crystal balls please, express delivery.

[Mario149]

Pan Pan Pan said:

It is not an assumption it is fact, the EU is in deep trouble already, only being kept afloat by Germany and the UK manning the pumps. Now that the UK has said F8ck this for a waste of time, it will only be a matter of time before Germany and the German people say they have enough of flogging themselves to keep the basket cases in its midst afloat.
Ask Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, even France and some of the newly admitted Eastern European states all with colossal levels of unemployment if they think they are `doing well'

That the EU will sink is not a fact. And an awful lot of people who understand this way better than we do seem to agree. And I say again, if the EU goes down so will we.

[Mario149]

Mark Benson said:

And replaced by?

It's not as if they produce a manifesto and allow us to vote for them based on it.

The direction is clear, ever close union and the means and methods ore pooling sovereignty and removing national institutions in favour of pan-European ones.

All the changes is the face at the top, the methods remain the same.

If you believe that is the case and don't like the outcome, that's fine. I'm personally happy with the deal we have, the integration we have, the safeguards we have etc. That said, the reason you state is by far and away the best argument for Brexit as it's ideological. If you don't believe in the aims of the EU and that is your most important reason, it's an open and shut case! If I think differently, that's okay too!

[Mario149]

Pan Pan Pan said:

Mario149 said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

Don't worry When all of the headless chickens have finally stopped charging around screaming doom and gloom, and calmed down, and the EU sinks beneath the waves of basket case bail outs, and the mass unemployment that exists NOW in the EU, people will see that getting off the sinking ship was the right thing to do after all.

I'd like to order one of your finest crystal balls please, express delivery.

Fine, if you send me one of yours, the one that says the EU is doing wonderfully at the moment, I promise not to notice the huge cracks in it.

We don't have to exchange crystal balls (oo er matron!). You can't prove the EU is going under and I can't prove it's going to be amazing. It's a guess, could go either way and anyone who claims they know otherwise is misleading themselves. So I refer back to one of my earlier posts. What we *do* know is that right now we're doing damage, and we will do all while we're exiting and setting up.

So since we're not clairvoyant, the economic choice comes down to:

- do the immediate damage and maybe/maybe not have a good result
- don't do the immediate damage and maybe/maybe not have a good result

And for some reason, we've chosen the first option, it's like we've become a nation of masochists.

[Mario149]

Pan Pan Pan said:

In that case we were always doomed in any case, whether we stayed in or left, at least getting into the lifeboat gives us a chance, however small.

Yep, see what you're saying. I just can't see how there'd be a chance at all though. We're never going to be free of Europe in trade terms, at least not anytime in the remotely near future. Sure their share may go from 45% to 30% if we increase trad elsewhere, but either way, if they go under we're taking a massive hit. I'd rather stick around and stop it happening in the first place. This is obviously assuming it will need the saving you think it does, which I do not.

[Mario149]

Pan Pan Pan said:

Ask Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and France how well the EU is doing for them, Ask the hundreds of thousands of EU nationals who come here every year, why they want to leave Europe, and get INTO the UK. You might get some more relevant answers.

That just means the EU is going through a rough time at the moment. Doesn't mean it's fundamentally flawed

[Mario149]

Pan Pan Pan said:

Dictators never like it when their minions show some courage, and refuse to do what they are told, so we have to expect some hard times imposed artificially by the dictators.
A Brussels EU official angry with the result, said that the UK will be made to pay for having the temerity to vote leave. The great thing was that his attitude, and comments demonstrated EXACTLY why the UK voted to leave the EU.

I don't have a problem with the EU trying to shaft us. It's natural, they need to look after themselves. To think otherwise is unwise. If Scotland had decided to leave the UK the other year, we would have done our best to take them to the cleaners as well. It's how it all works, even if it's not very "nice". And it's also and obvious reason why it's better to stay together, you don't have to compete, you pool resources and kick ass together.

[Mario149]

Mark Benson said:

Mario149 said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

Ask Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and France how well the EU is doing for them, Ask the hundreds of thousands of EU nationals who come here every year, why they want to leave Europe, and get INTO the UK. You might get some more relevant answers.

That just means the EU is going through a rough time at the moment. Doesn't mean it's fundamentally flawed

I think most commentator would agree though, that the concept of the Euro is fundamentally flawed. By entering into monetary union without tying together the members' fiscal regimes, it was always clear that economies like Greece would struggle without the ability to devalue and Germany would dominate.

the Euro should have been delayed until fiscal harmony had been achieved and the conditions for entry should have been stricter (and enforce more strongly).

The Euro is not the EU, that's clear but it's one of the instruments they are using to impose ever closer union, ergo if the Euro is fundamentally flawed then it augers badly for the rest of the integration measures.

Agree with a lot of what you're saying. But we always hear the "impose ever closer union" - could the Euro be a mechanism to do this? Yes. But it's a matter of fact that significant change in the EU cannot be imposed on anyone against their will. The whole Turkey hysteria should have put that to bed IMO.

[Mario149]

Pan Pan Pan said:

Mario149 said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

Ask Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and France how well the EU is doing for them, Ask the hundreds of thousands of EU nationals who come here every year, why they want to leave Europe, and get INTO the UK. You might get some more relevant answers.

That just means the EU is going through a rough time at the moment. Doesn't mean it's fundamentally flawed

If you believe that the EU is not fundamentally flawed, then there is no hope for you. Strange how you believe that the UK is in trouble owing to its decision to leave the EU, and many doom and gloom remainers keep on saying this could last for years (when the UK has one of the strongest economies in the EU) but seem optimistic that the EU which really IS in deep financial and employment trouble, is just `going through a rough time' Just wait until the economic basket cases in the EU start asking for more bail outs, If you think this is a `rough time' for the EU, as the saying goes, you ain`t seen nothing yet. and just when its second greatest net contributor of funds INTO EU coffers (You know the difference between putting things in, and taking them out. right?) has decided to leave. Oh Dear.

All your opinion. You think the UK is strong largely in spite of the EU, I say the UK is strong largely because of the EU. Look, with respect it's impossible to argue the economics with Brexit people on PH (and other places) and it's not because you're arguments are so good (although many clearly have merit), it's because it's not really an economic argument you're putting forward at its core. Let me explain what I mean....

I acknowledge that my knowledge is not as in depth as it needs to be to make a watertight argument, so when push comes to shove I defer to people who know more about it, the professionals, the people that look and work with this at a national and international level every day. And the vast majority of them say that leaving the EU is a bad idea in terms of economics. Now, that's not to say that there aren't a few people in that group who disagree, or that there aren't people here who run businesses etc who can pretty much categorically say that they will benefit from Brexit, or indeed vice versa. So them voting either way specifically for their niche circumstances is completely understandable. But for the rest of us it's far more difficult and far more nuanced, which is exactly what the situation is at national and international level.

The problem is the Brexit side does not have the same level of "economic expert" support so then has to claim that these people are biased/have bad data/whatever, cherry pick their own, and/or claim that people are "sick of experts" (that one is going to haunt Gove until the end of time) and the "elite" telling them what will happen. So at the end of the day, it's not an economic argument that's been put forward, but an "anti-establishment", pseudo-ideological one masquerading as an economic one. The argument is not that the economics will be better, but just the belief that the knowledgeable people telling you an answer you don't want to hear are wrong. Everything else is just window dressing and clouding the issue.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, the only cast iron reason to vote Brexit is the sovereignty argument. If you absolutely believe that the UK should have the final say over UK laws etc, the EU is fundamentally incompatible with that and there is nothing anyone on the Remain side can counter that with.

[Mario149]

NRS said:

That would be all well and good if it had no effect on the EU countries. However it clearly does, as shown by the (larger) effects on EU country markets. Thus it appears they may be going down the road of screwing us to teach us a lesson, even to the detriment of their own people. That is what I have an issue with.

It is daft, but then it looks like Scotland want to leave the UK and that'd clearly be bad for them, at least in the short term. At a certain point, logic doesn't come into it. Everyone is hoping that it will all be approached rationally, but then we've just had good ol' Nige stand up in the Euro Parliament and essentially tell everyone there they are a workshy idiot and to f*ck off. And then immediately ask for a good trade deal. And there have been people here and on telly who think he should lead negotiations. F*ck me, you couldn't make it up.