Chances of May calling a snap election.

[MarshPhantom]

I keep hearing it, but I'd say they are less than zero...

I'd have thought the way things are going our next Government will be anybody but the Tories.

It's not a though the majority of areas that voted Leave (the North, Wales) are suddenly going to start electing Tory MPs. And they certainly aren't popular in London, which has 62% Labour MPs as things are.

[MarshPhantom]

Stats online for percentage of leave voters that regret their decision are also quite interesting. No one is going to regret not voting Leave, when Leave won, surely.

[MarshPhantom]

castroses said:

MarshPhantom said:

I keep hearing it, but I'd say they are less than zero...

I'd have thought the way things are going our next Government will be anybody but the Tories.

It's not a though the majority of areas that voted Leave (the North, Wales) are suddenly going to start electing Tory MPs. And they certainly aren't popular in London, which has 62% Labour MPs as things are.

You mean Labour?
Corbyn as PM?
You're having a laugh or smoking crack!
Tories will be in power for the next decade or longer.

Edited by castroses on Wednesday 18th January 09:22

Where did I say Labour? The way things are I'll be voting Lib Dems next time.

[MarshPhantom]

powerstroke said:

MarshPhantom said:

I keep hearing it, but I'd say they are less than zero...

I'd have thought the way things are going our next Government will be anybody but the Tories.

e.

UKIP then ????

Good luck with that. They did get about 2% of the vote during the Mayoral election in London last year. So that's at least 73 seats they won't win and would be quite a turnaround from their current 1 MP.

[MarshPhantom]

Derek Smith said:

jonby said:

Bookies tend not to be stupid or give away their money un necessarily

It's a bit more complex that your post reads. Bookies judge their odds on their risk and this will depend on those who bet. Whilst it runs generally along the lines of the likely winner, the actual odds are not a dependable forecast, 'cause that's not what odds are.

MarshPhantom said:

castroses said:

MarshPhantom said:

I keep hearing it, but I'd say they are less than zero...

I'd have thought the way things are going our next Government will be anybody but the Tories.

It's not a though the majority of areas that voted Leave (the North, Wales) are suddenly going to start electing Tory MPs. And they certainly aren't popular in London, which has 62% Labour MPs as things are.

You mean Labour?
Corbyn as PM?
You're having a laugh or smoking crack!
Tories will be in power for the next decade or longer.

Edited by castroses on Wednesday 18th January 09:22

Where did I say Labour? The way things are I'll be voting Lib Dems next time.

The tories got in with a small majority this time, only just into double figures. Whilst labour had more or less a hundred fewer seats, there was an SNP left-leaning party that got over 50.

The critical number is the libdems, just nine seats, one of their lowest for some time. However, their infrastructure remains intact and they come and they go. I'd consider voting libdems next election depending on the likely leader.


The UKIP has lost its funding I believe and there are a few dissatisfied voters in Scotland who might vote tactically, and the left in the north will have to go somewhere.

I don't know what is going to happen, which puts me fairly and squarely in with the rest of the populace.

The UK is undergoing its biggest political change in modern history. The recency effect can be persuasive in politics. If the government makes a hash of it, remember who is in the negotiating team, so nothing to fear there, then this will be a factor on the way people vote. It might also be a factor on what happens to May.

If history is anything to go by, and it is more dependable as a forecaster than Paddy Power, then any disaster in the tory party means infighting, and lots of it. Nothing more likely to put of the electorate.

But who knows what will happen? Not me and not anyone.

This is the thing. SNP are clearly anti-brexit, Lib Dems got punished last time around for the Clegg coalition and are anti-brexit, if Labour get someone decent (even if they don't) I really don't see how an anti-brexit coalition could absolutely nail it next time around. As you say, strange how the result last time was depicted as some kind of annihilation of Milliband Labour.

Infighting - yes, even Tory MPs are massively anti-brexit. 185 Remain, 138 Leave.

Best of luck, Theresa.

Edited by MarshPhantom on Wednesday 18th January 21:45