It's BAD, it's STILL very bad REPRISE thread (13 months on)

[Shadytree]

When I started the "It's BAD, it's VERY VERY BAD - The be very afraid thread!" way back in November 2008. I painted a miserable picture of the current state of our economy from my perspective and the misery that lie ahead that so many were in denial of.
Back then the media was hoping to see the so called 'green shoots' by spring 2010, but alas we have now hit February and i'm still as bearish as hell on our outlook. The Government and Media are spinning that we are now heading out of the recession and things will start to improve. January house prices fell again. I don't think we will have a double dip, but we shall be trundling along the bottom for a fair while yet.
Personally speaking I recon we will not see any concrete signs of the UK Economy improving and growing until spring 2011 spring 2012 spring 2013 spring 2014.

Sorry, i'll get back into my bunker now.

Edited by Shadytree on Saturday 27th August 11:21

[Shadytree]

G_T said:

Out of curiosity why Spring 2011? What is the empirical or logical basis of this?

Why not Autumn or perhaps mid-summer? Also how do you define the term, "green shoots of recovery"?

I don't mean to be awkward but I was led to believe economists speculate recovery which is akin to guesswork. How you can then go on to say "I told you so" and it will be "spring 2011" surely requires some form of explanation?

There's an old saying, "there are only two types of men who can tell the future. If they're wrong they're liars and if they're correct then they're lucky liars".

Just curious.

Yes, bang on guess work with a tinge of optimism.

Edited by Shadytree on Monday 1st February 14:03

[Shadytree]

I've turned even more bearish than when I started this thread.
We are in the deep deep sh*t, even more than people realise. Unless the UK takes an Irish style hatchet to the public sector pay, by cutting a blanket 20% I can't see a way out at the moment, and to be honest with some sectors paying so low, can you really see the government do that ahead of the election ?
My guesstimate of any signs of growth and sustained recovery have just been pushed back to 2012

Last one out please turn the lights off...

[Shadytree]

February consumer confidence index came in at 46 vs market expectations of 55
Very Very poor number. Lowest level since April 2009 and early 1980's.

Not good ahead of next week payrol numbers.

More evidence that the situations is still dire... and will continue to be so.


(sorry, I'm not the grim reaper, honest)