Cashing out of Euros
Discussion
Hi all, I'm looking for thoughts. We have just sold a house in France and getting paid into a French bank account, the funds should clear over the next few days.
I'm thinking about when to convert from Euros to £, especially with the QE announcement today. Would you convert ASAP or wait a little while to see if the Euro strengthens.
It isn't a massive amount, about 120k Euro, but still a few % movement can make quite a big difference.
Thanks
I'm thinking about when to convert from Euros to £, especially with the QE announcement today. Would you convert ASAP or wait a little while to see if the Euro strengthens.
It isn't a massive amount, about 120k Euro, but still a few % movement can make quite a big difference.
Thanks
jeff m2 said:
I'm not an expert on Currency, I do not trade it.
I do however take it into account when looking at foreign equity.
Europe are starting to make 60 Bn per month in purchases, that should at least keep the Euro level with the Pond.
I think keeping in Euros could be benificial.
That is the exact opposite of what QE does!I do however take it into account when looking at foreign equity.
Europe are starting to make 60 Bn per month in purchases, that should at least keep the Euro level with the Pond.
I think keeping in Euros could be benificial.
walm said:
jeff m2 said:
I'm not an expert on Currency, I do not trade it.
I do however take it into account when looking at foreign equity.
Europe are starting to make 60 Bn per month in purchases, that should at least keep the Euro level with the Pond.
I think keeping in Euros could be benificial.
That is the exact opposite of what QE does!I do however take it into account when looking at foreign equity.
Europe are starting to make 60 Bn per month in purchases, that should at least keep the Euro level with the Pond.
I think keeping in Euros could be benificial.
The Pound is quite strong at present (Dollar and Euro).
Not a great time to buy Pounds.
Whether 1.25 is the floor I've no idea.
Probably best to look at the futures.
jeff m2 said:
Isn't the 60 Bn already priced in? Hence the current rate.
The Pound is quite strong at present (Dollar and Euro).
Not a great time to buy Pounds.
Whether 1.25 is the floor I've no idea.
Probably best to look at the futures.
1. QE is similar to lowering interest rates. It weakens a currency.The Pound is quite strong at present (Dollar and Euro).
Not a great time to buy Pounds.
Whether 1.25 is the floor I've no idea.
Probably best to look at the futures.
2. The 60bn was larger than expected so you saw the EUR instantly drop a load vs. the USD.
3. You are right - NOW the 60bn should be priced in, it wasn't yesterday morning, hence the drop.
4. There is still a risk that the QE doesn't work - it doesn't stimulate the economy and this means they may have to do it AGAIN - hence weakening the currency further.
The pound is "strong" because the UK is much closer to RAISING interest rates.
€60 billion a month until Sept 2016 which makes €1.14 trillion in total, with the option to continue.
However the £ dropped as well this week as BoE minutes showed that MPC voting was back to 9-0 to keep rates on hold, from 7-2 previously.
However the £ dropped as well this week as BoE minutes showed that MPC voting was back to 9-0 to keep rates on hold, from 7-2 previously.
Edited by RAClNG SNAKE on Friday 23 January 09:17
OP,
What Walm wrote is correct in fact. I would argue though that QE was already priced in before yesterday as they had been dropping severe hints and there were 'official rumours' of the amount for the days before. But anyway that's irrelevant to what you want to know/ No-one seems to want to hang their hat on a peg I will tell you what I'm doing. NB. I'm a bond trader NOT a currency trader so this is just my opinion.
I am short Euros as I've thought the whole euro and various economies in it were basket cases. Draghi has been hell bent on doing "whatever is necessary" since day 1 and continues to push the QE agenda regardless. He even made a comment that QE was essentially coming a few months back and attributed it to the ECB whereas it was his own individual opinion - that pissed off a few other members.
This is only the first round of QE. They reserve the right to continue it or increase it if they feel it isn't doing the job. Euro economies have still been floundering whilst US and UK economies have recovered a great deal.
So with all this I've still not given you my opinion. Well I am short Euro against the pound and have been for 2 years. I have taken off approximately 25% of my position and am letting the rest run as I think things will get worse before they get better. I am targeting 70cents to the £ before getting out of the majority, though I am onside a great deal so I have the room to let it breathe. Personally I know that I will go to Europe often so I would leave some spending money there but I would bring the majority back as my expenditure is GBP based.
That's just my opinion though.
What Walm wrote is correct in fact. I would argue though that QE was already priced in before yesterday as they had been dropping severe hints and there were 'official rumours' of the amount for the days before. But anyway that's irrelevant to what you want to know/ No-one seems to want to hang their hat on a peg I will tell you what I'm doing. NB. I'm a bond trader NOT a currency trader so this is just my opinion.
I am short Euros as I've thought the whole euro and various economies in it were basket cases. Draghi has been hell bent on doing "whatever is necessary" since day 1 and continues to push the QE agenda regardless. He even made a comment that QE was essentially coming a few months back and attributed it to the ECB whereas it was his own individual opinion - that pissed off a few other members.
This is only the first round of QE. They reserve the right to continue it or increase it if they feel it isn't doing the job. Euro economies have still been floundering whilst US and UK economies have recovered a great deal.
So with all this I've still not given you my opinion. Well I am short Euro against the pound and have been for 2 years. I have taken off approximately 25% of my position and am letting the rest run as I think things will get worse before they get better. I am targeting 70cents to the £ before getting out of the majority, though I am onside a great deal so I have the room to let it breathe. Personally I know that I will go to Europe often so I would leave some spending money there but I would bring the majority back as my expenditure is GBP based.
That's just my opinion though.
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