Time to invest in a FTSE 100 tracker?
Discussion
Grabbing the price now wouldn't seem a brilliant idea. The market is in a down trend so the chances of actually calling the bottom just aren't there.
However, starting to scale in on a monthly basis or if already being done, looking to increase the amount wouldn't be a daft idea at all.
Worth bearing in mind that if the current ball sweating transpires to be a proper rout then the 21st century floor is around the 4000 mark
However, starting to scale in on a monthly basis or if already being done, looking to increase the amount wouldn't be a daft idea at all.
Worth bearing in mind that if the current ball sweating transpires to be a proper rout then the 21st century floor is around the 4000 mark
DonkeyApple said:
Grabbing the price now wouldn't seem a brilliant idea. The market is in a down trend so the chances of actually calling the bottom just aren't there.
However, starting to scale in on a monthly basis or if already being done, looking to increase the amount wouldn't be a daft idea at all.
Worth bearing in mind that if the current ball sweating transpires to be a proper rout then the 21st century floor is around the 4000 mark
I 'hope' the rout doesn't come off DA - I'm gambling this is just a market correction and not a new bear market, who knows for sure yet though? (low oil surely good for equities world wide and China issue not as bad as media have us believe plus India taking up the slack)However, starting to scale in on a monthly basis or if already being done, looking to increase the amount wouldn't be a daft idea at all.
Worth bearing in mind that if the current ball sweating transpires to be a proper rout then the 21st century floor is around the 4000 mark
I'm lumping in the max to my pension fund and hoping to retire in 3 years so lets hope I'm right
I'm no perma bear nor am I trying to scare anyone, in fact I'm cautiously bullish here in the very short term but someone explain to me how this all ends in the longterm 10yrs or more down the line.
2008 was where the banks were over leveraged and on the brink of bankruptcy, the argument was if they let them go bankrupt the whole system would collapse so they proceeded to bail them out, the whole rescue package was aimed at saving the banks.
Zero interest rates and massive amounts of qe as I see it was a gamble to try rescue the banks in the hope that a few years later things would be different, there would be growth and then they could claw back the deficit.
Only problem is 7 years later and again the banks are in trouble. Take Db how do they even manage to have exposure to $75 trillion of derivatives isn't that much much worse than Lehman's? Same deal they won't let them go bankrupt because I imagine if they did 2008 would look tiny in comparison.
I guess my argument here is are the current prices really accurate or is it all because of the QE and zero interest rates, what's the end game permanent qe from now on? One small hike and the US markets haven't exactly taken it well.
So if your bullish here I'm assuming the argument is all this is overblown right now there is no risk of these major institutions blowing up.
But in the long term picture how is all the world debt going to be reduced?
US at $16 trillion
China at $28 trillion
Uk $2 trillion
Since 2008 global debt has increased by $57 trillion so if we have a crisis now 2008 is just going to be a blip in comparison.
2008 was where the banks were over leveraged and on the brink of bankruptcy, the argument was if they let them go bankrupt the whole system would collapse so they proceeded to bail them out, the whole rescue package was aimed at saving the banks.
Zero interest rates and massive amounts of qe as I see it was a gamble to try rescue the banks in the hope that a few years later things would be different, there would be growth and then they could claw back the deficit.
Only problem is 7 years later and again the banks are in trouble. Take Db how do they even manage to have exposure to $75 trillion of derivatives isn't that much much worse than Lehman's? Same deal they won't let them go bankrupt because I imagine if they did 2008 would look tiny in comparison.
I guess my argument here is are the current prices really accurate or is it all because of the QE and zero interest rates, what's the end game permanent qe from now on? One small hike and the US markets haven't exactly taken it well.
So if your bullish here I'm assuming the argument is all this is overblown right now there is no risk of these major institutions blowing up.
But in the long term picture how is all the world debt going to be reduced?
US at $16 trillion
China at $28 trillion
Uk $2 trillion
Since 2008 global debt has increased by $57 trillion so if we have a crisis now 2008 is just going to be a blip in comparison.
dingg said:
DonkeyApple said:
Grabbing the price now wouldn't seem a brilliant idea. The market is in a down trend so the chances of actually calling the bottom just aren't there.
However, starting to scale in on a monthly basis or if already being done, looking to increase the amount wouldn't be a daft idea at all.
Worth bearing in mind that if the current ball sweating transpires to be a proper rout then the 21st century floor is around the 4000 mark
I 'hope' the rout doesn't come off DA - I'm gambling this is just a market correction and not a new bear market, who knows for sure yet though? (low oil surely good for equities world wide and China issue not as bad as media have us believe plus India taking up the slack)However, starting to scale in on a monthly basis or if already being done, looking to increase the amount wouldn't be a daft idea at all.
Worth bearing in mind that if the current ball sweating transpires to be a proper rout then the 21st century floor is around the 4000 mark
I'm lumping in the max to my pension fund and hoping to retire in 3 years so lets hope I'm right
I think you are right that the market is discounting the upside of fair value oil, that China is still growing and that India is banking it.
Frankly, the fears of German banks collapsing? So what. What we all know now is that any government will just bail them out and print money. Hence the abnormal spike in gold at present.
Randomly I've dodged a bullet on the last two crashes. I was all cash early in 2001 as I saw the tech boom coming to an end and that was what I'd been punting. So when 9/11 happened it was only the pension that got hit. And then in 2006 I had a weird notion that the world had gone crazy, or at least London had, and I sold my cars, went to cash all round. Last year I sold a house, stopped putting money into the markets and am selling some cars.
Basically I'm always bearish but when I get spooked I sell a few things and stop adding to investments. Every sell off is eventually an opportunity to buy but you can only buy after a massive sell off if you have cash.
dingg said:
I 'hope' the rout doesn't come off DA - I'm gambling this is just a market correction and not a new bear market, who knows for sure yet though? (low oil surely good for equities world wide and China issue not as bad as media have us believe plus India taking up the slack)
I'm lumping in the max to my pension fund and hoping to retire in 3 years so lets hope I'm right
Actually low oil prices are part of the problem.I'm lumping in the max to my pension fund and hoping to retire in 3 years so lets hope I'm right
The only beneficiaries of low pump prices are lower consumers that live pay cheque to pay cheque. (and possibly the paint industry) They are not going to sway the market.
Adding to your pension fund with three years to go is perhaps your only choice.
Not sure the 100 is the best place.
shopper150 said:
I'm probably not adding much here. But I hate the FTSE.
Crap index, crap returns.
Agreed - I would never track the FTSE 100 but I think the FTSE All-share is fair game. FTSE 100 is too lop-sided towards a small number of massive companies at the top.Crap index, crap returns.
I'm buying now. If you look at previous historical lows the problem becomes that if you wait for an upturn you never know whether it's the real thing or a false dawn. And if you wait to make sure it's the real thing it will have risen so far before you finally get on board that you will miss out. One of the biggest mistakes you can make is to be out of the market when the occasional rapid gains kick in.
There's an investment saying that it's better to focus on "time in the market" than "timing the market".
The trouble with the latter part of Buffet's statement is that it can be misconstrued to mean buy when everyone is selling. It's quite important to note that Buffet means buy when all the fools have spaffed their firepower trying to guess the bottom, the bottom is proven to be in and the departure of the silly money means you are the only buyer in town for quality assets held by distressed sellers.
Behemoth said:
If you don't know what the current market sentiment is between these polar opposites then I wouldn't be making any investment decisions
Oh really... I presume you mean everyone is fearful then. But look at the replies to this thread - some are greedy, some are fearful. It's not clear cut. If you do mean everyone is fearful you are basing this on market movements rather than what people are saying, in which case you are turning buffet's maxim In to "buy when the market falls" which is not the same thing.Gassing Station | Finance | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff