Mars colony - within 20 years?
Discussion
I've just spent an immensely enjoyable morning reading http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/08/how-and-why-spacex-w...
For anyone who isn't familiar with the site - sit down, grab a coffee, and read part one first: http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/05/elon-musk-the-worlds...
They're quite long-winded but provide a very interesting (obviously biased) insight into Elon Musk. Most Pistonheads will know him through his company Tesla - and their leaps and bounds in creating a real alternative to petrol powered cars. However this is the science forum, so this post relates to Space-X.
In the articles above, if you can't be bothered to read them (and you really should), it discusses Musk's plans to create a colony on Mars. Not just a colony - a sustainable colony that would serve as our species' backup plan should an asteroid hit, or some disaster of our making come to pass.
Having read the article and looking at the impressive record thus far of Space-X, I don't see it as ramblings of a dreamer - I see it as the (possibly quite optimistic) calculations of an intelligent man. I am not, however, a rocket scientist. What are your thoughts?
Do you think the timescale is realistic - or insane?
Are there loads of holes in the theories presented that I haven't seen?
For anyone who isn't familiar with the site - sit down, grab a coffee, and read part one first: http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/05/elon-musk-the-worlds...
They're quite long-winded but provide a very interesting (obviously biased) insight into Elon Musk. Most Pistonheads will know him through his company Tesla - and their leaps and bounds in creating a real alternative to petrol powered cars. However this is the science forum, so this post relates to Space-X.
In the articles above, if you can't be bothered to read them (and you really should), it discusses Musk's plans to create a colony on Mars. Not just a colony - a sustainable colony that would serve as our species' backup plan should an asteroid hit, or some disaster of our making come to pass.
Having read the article and looking at the impressive record thus far of Space-X, I don't see it as ramblings of a dreamer - I see it as the (possibly quite optimistic) calculations of an intelligent man. I am not, however, a rocket scientist. What are your thoughts?
Do you think the timescale is realistic - or insane?
Are there loads of holes in the theories presented that I haven't seen?
The site has quite a conversational style with a smattering of cartoons but it serves to inform people about things they'd not be able to get their heads around otherwise. It doesn't simplify - it explains, which is much better in my opinion.
Agree on the setback - although impressive how open they were to scrutiny and in keeping the public informed. Seems they've got a hold on exactly what was the issue and how to avoid a repeat occurrence. As you say, though, this rocket science stuff isn't easy - and no matter how much thought & engineering goes in to 99.999% of the components, the smallest thing can mean disaster.
Agree on the setback - although impressive how open they were to scrutiny and in keeping the public informed. Seems they've got a hold on exactly what was the issue and how to avoid a repeat occurrence. As you say, though, this rocket science stuff isn't easy - and no matter how much thought & engineering goes in to 99.999% of the components, the smallest thing can mean disaster.
Indeed - working on current payload abilities the idea seems far fetched. However their ideas for Mars involve a new vehicle entirely which would be able to take 100 tonnes plus. The way they intend to get it to work is to firstly build a reusable rocket (all stages). They're already attempting to land stage 1 rockets after some launches.
Once the rocket is reusable they will send the payload into orbit above Earth, come back down, send more - until you have X payloads (with stage 2 & final stage rockets attached) ready above earth. These will be waiting for the convergence of Earth and Mars, and all set off together - so for each convergence you get multiple launches without them all having to wait to launch from Earth directly. This is oversimplifying it - but the link I posted goes into this in more detail. It makes sense, since even when they're close they're about 60 million miles apart. This will allow for quicker colonisation and more backups should one launch fail. Rockets being reusable will of course massively lower the overall cost. Of course, reusable rockets have many other things to take into account: metal fatigue, etc.
Once the rocket is reusable they will send the payload into orbit above Earth, come back down, send more - until you have X payloads (with stage 2 & final stage rockets attached) ready above earth. These will be waiting for the convergence of Earth and Mars, and all set off together - so for each convergence you get multiple launches without them all having to wait to launch from Earth directly. This is oversimplifying it - but the link I posted goes into this in more detail. It makes sense, since even when they're close they're about 60 million miles apart. This will allow for quicker colonisation and more backups should one launch fail. Rockets being reusable will of course massively lower the overall cost. Of course, reusable rockets have many other things to take into account: metal fatigue, etc.
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