The Official 2016 Belgian Grand Prix Thread **Spoilers**

[Dr Z]

We’re still in the summer shut down for the teams, but I think we’ve had enough of a break...let’s get the discussion started for the next race.

Date(s): Friday 26 August - Sunday 28 August 2016

UK Broadcast Timings (and local time)

All sessions are live on Sky F1 and Channel 4.

Session	Day	Sky F1	Channel 4	Session Start	Local Time
Practice 1	Fri	0845	0855	0900	1000
Practice 2	Fri	1245	1255	1300	1400
Practice 3	Sat	0945	0955	1000	1100
Qualifying	Sat	1200	1200	1300	1400
Race	Sun	1130	1200	1300	1400

Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps



Live timing for all sessions available here:

http://www.formula1.com/content/fom-website/en/f1-...

Info such as lap times, PU use, technical reports, stewards decisions etc for the weekend will appear here:

http://www.fia.com/events/fia-formula-one-world-ch...

Weather forecast:

http://www.myweather2.com/Motor-Racing/Belgium/Spa...

The tyre choices requested by the teams:



Pirelli nominated tyres are Medium and Soft, with teams required to use one of these compounds in the race.

2015 Qualifying

Pos.	Driver	Constructor	Q1	Q2	Q3
1	Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	1:48.908	1:48.024	1:47.197
2	Nico Rosberg	Mercedes	1:48.923	1:47.955	1:47.655
3	Valtteri Bottas	Williams-Mercedes	1:49.026	1:49.044	1:48.537
4	Romain Grosjean	Lotus-Mercedes	1:49.353	1:48.981	1:48.561
5	Sergio Pérez	Force India-Mercedes	1:49.006	1:48.792	1:48.599
6	Daniel Ricciardo	Red Bull Racing-Renault	1:49.664	1:49.042	1:48.639
7	Felipe Massa	Williams-Mercedes	1:49.688	1:48.806	1:48.685
8	Pastor Maldonado	Lotus-Mercedes	1:49.568	1:48.956	1:48.754
9	Sebastian Vettel	Ferrari	1:49.264	1:48.761	1:48.825
10	Carlos Sainz, Jr.	Toro Rosso-Renault	1:49.109	1:49.065	1:49.771
11	Nico Hülkenberg	Force India-Mercedes	1:49.499	1:49.121	-
12	Daniil Kvyat	Red Bull Racing-Renault	1:49.469	1:49.228	-
13	Marcus Ericsson	Sauber-Ferrari	1:49.523	1:49.586	-
14	Kimi Räikkönen	Ferrari	1:49.288	No time	-
15	Max Verstappen	Toro Rosso-Renault	1:49.831	No time	-
16	Felipe Nasr	Sauber-Ferrari	1:49.952	-	-
17	Jenson Button	McLaren-Honda	1:50.978	-	-
18	Fernando Alonso	McLaren-Honda	1:51.420	-	-
19	Will Stevens	Marussia-Ferrari	1:52.948	-	-
20	Roberto Merhi	Marussia-Ferrari	1:53.099	-	-

2015 Race

Pos.	Driver	Constructor	Laps	Time/Retired	Grid
1	Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	43	1:23:40.387	1
2	Nico Rosberg	Mercedes	43	+2.058	2
3	Romain Grosjean	Lotus-Mercedes	43	+37.988	9
4	Daniil Kvyat	Red Bull Racing-Renault	43	+45.692	12
5	Sergio Pérez	Force India-Mercedes	43	+53.997	4
6	Felipe Massa	Williams-Mercedes	43	+55.283	6
7	Kimi Räikkönen	Ferrari	43	+55.703	16
8	Max Verstappen	Toro Rosso-Renault	43	+56.076	18
9	Valtteri Bottas	Williams-Mercedes	43	+1:01.040	3
10	Marcus Ericsson	Sauber-Ferrari	43	+1:31.234	13
11	Felipe Nasr	Sauber-Ferrari	43	+1:42.311	14
121	Sebastian Vettel	Ferrari	42	Tyre failure	8
13	Fernando Alonso	McLaren-Honda	42	+ 1 Lap	20
14	Jenson Button	McLaren-Honda	42	+ 1 Lap	19
15	Roberto Merhi	Marussia-Ferrari	42	+ 1 Lap	17
16	Will Stevens	Marussia-Ferrari	42	+ 1 Lap	15
Ret	Carlos Sainz, Jr.	Toro Rosso-Renault	32	Power unit	10
Ret	Daniel Ricciardo	Red Bull Racing-Renault	19	Electrics	5
Ret	Pastor Maldonado	Lotus-Mercedes	2	Power unit	7
DNS	Nico Hülkenberg	Force India-Mercedes	0	Power unit	11

Fastest Race Lap: 1:52.416 (L34, N. Rosberg; Mercedes)

---

I imagine this is a great track to get back to after the break. As for the actual racing form book, some midfield teams go better than the others but the Mercedes works team’s dominance had been the most acute at this track than any other in the calendar in the last few years. To illustrate, if you compress the 7.004 km long track to just 1 km, preserving all the corners and straights in proportion, the Mercedes car still had more than 0.2 seconds advantage over the field in qualifying last year. The usual advantage had been around 0.1-0.15s. The rest of the field had been remarkably close so we can expect some good racing this year.

Nice to see tyre selection variation among the top teams, with Mercedes perhaps planning on using all three compounds in the race on a 2-stopper? Wonder if Hamilton will take a penalty, as the tyre selection suggests they had more sets to cover for this, if they do decide to take the penalty here.

Pirelli say this regarding their Soft and Medium tyres from last year:

Pirelli said:

Managing the amount of energy going through the tyres is one of the keys to success at Spa. This consists of not only forces exerted through cornering, braking, and acceleration but also the loads generated by the huge changes in elevation, typified by the famous Eau Rouge-Raidillon complex (which subjects the tyre structure and shoulder to an unparalleled 1g compression).

The biggest difficulty with the variable weather in Spa is that many variations exist over the course of just a single lap, making it hard to identify the correct tyre when it rains. It’s possible for one part of the circuit to be completely soaked, but another part to be a hundred per cent dry. Drainage is an issue, meaning that it’s easy to be caught out by streams of water running across the track surface.

The medium tyre is a low working range compound, capable of achieving optimal performance even at a wide range of low temperatures – which is often the case at Spa. The soft tyre by contrast is a high working range compound, suitable for higher temperatures.

I will add to the above, the Super Soft is a low working range compound like the Mediums but it will be interesting to see if it can take the abuse in the form of the compression Pirelli talks about...the tyre failure suffered by Vettel last year in the race causing some kerfuffle. Mostly due to the length of a lap, Pirelli estimated the delta between Soft and Medium at 1.8-2s/lap. This delta is almost approaching the kind of advantage Mercedes had over the field in qualifying, so it makes sense that Mercedes will have the Medium tyre in their strategy plans…

It looks like some Mercedes power trains had reliability issues leading to DNFs for some cars last year...speaking of PUs, despite a comical number of grid penalties, Honda brought some upgrades and they did reasonably well in the race. Though they got lapped once, Fernando put in the 5th fastest lap of the race, in the same lap and same tyres as the fastest lap by Rosberg...the McLaren was 1.2 seconds off the pace of the Mercedes. It will be interesting to see if the gap had widened or closer this time around as Honda are bringing some upgrades as well, I think.

Other things of interest:

Lotus did really well last year with the Mercedes PU but can the chassis carry them through this year for a top 10 finish or may be more?

Red Bull’s performance in the race would be one to watch, as they had decent race pace last year given the compromises they had to make.

Ferrari. Can one of the Ferrari drivers put in an inspired performance to pick the team up?

Weather. Long range forecast is predicting some rain around for the weekend.

Fastest qualifying lap. With the current layout, the fastest lap an F1 car had set was in 2007 by Raikkonen, a 1:45.994...I think we could come very close to that in a dry qualifying.

---

Can someone else start race threads from now on, as I’m having increasing work commitments that mean I’m not able to put as much effort into it? Thanks.

[Dr Z]

LaurasOtherHalf said:

Really sorry to hear that, though hopefully your increased work commitments mean positive things for you personally

The threads won't be quite as good without your info though hopefully we'll still get your analysis and input after the events when time allows. All the best,

Thanks, yeah the work load is getting higher with some positives, but I'll be around and sure to contribute to the race threads.

NM62 said:

Jasandjules said:

We've had a chat, and sorry, the answer is no................

We are sure you'll be able to carry on starting threads... Frankly no-one else is going to want to try and be the poor second

Sorry Dr Z but JasandJules is correct - nobody else will be able ( or want ) to try and match your excellent openings - I am afraid you will have to resign from your job and become the full time PH F1 Analyst.

Leave my day job and be a PH F1 analyst...sounds like my dream job!

Day job pays so I better do well in it!

williamp said:

Thanks as always. We dont ***need*** as much info as you provide, but its always very welcome, so thanks for all the hard work.

maybe a template is needed, where others can fill in the blanks as required? I'd be happy to do some (a part of me has always wanted to start one of these threads...

You should do the next one then! I tend to start them off 10 days before the race (if it's not a back-to-back race), but leave some gap from the previous race. Just quote the OP of this thread and you'll have a template to work off on. I get the tyre allocation jpeg link from the F1 or Pirelli motorsport twitter account, the circuit figure from the fia website, broadcast and session timings from the F1 app. Live timing link is the same for all races. The rest is a bit of fluff (that takes most of the time actually!), so skip or if you'd like to give some comments from your POV of the upcoming race, go for it.

[Dr Z]

Thanks for the kind messages guys!

Maybe OT but catching up on the news at AMuS, saw this and had to post:

GPS trace of the qualifying laps of Hamilton and Verstappen in Silverstone!



Showing where RB/Verstappen combo is stronger than Merc/Hamilton and vice versa.















This one from the qualifying laps from Hungary:



Bits of Ricciardo's trace missing here but this is gold dust!

[Dr Z]

When I first saw the Silverstone trace, the immediate thought was Red Bull being the 'draggier' car of the two, especially as the speed advantage of the Merc only appears to come in play at speeds in excess of 200 kph where the drag penalty is more pronounced, but in reality the speed disadvantage is likely due to a combination of drag and ERS/ICE output. As the lap goes on, it looks like the RenaultTag-Heuer ERS is spreading itself thin and the boost out of the corners is not so potent as the Merc.

I'm reminded of the comments Paddy and Toto made in the British GP weekend about the Red Bull car.

Paddy Lowe said:

Silverstone is a circuit which is undoubtedly a real test of a car, power and aerodynamics. It’s interesting that Red Bull are constantly peddling a story about the low power they’ve got, but just to set the record straight at this event as they often do, they chose to run a higher level of wing than we did. Therefore they look like they have less power and they’re quicker in the corners, because that’s the choice they make. The reality is there’s not a huge difference between the engines these days, but there are still differences between the downforce you can run.

It's funny to see Paddy moaning at Red Bull for running a bigger wing, with more alleged downforce levels than Merc...I'm not so sure it's as simple as bigger the “wing levels”, greater the drag penalty and therefore quicker in the corners, especially as RB also have one of the shortest wheelbases and largest rake angles (along with FI and McLaren) on the grid:



It’s the whole package surely?

The Merc apex speeds are higher in low speed corners compared to the Red Bull, most notable in T16 and T3...Paddy’s comments suggest that his team is running less downforce/wing than Red Bull, but the Merc is able to match the Red Bull in the high speed corners too...it’s not like the Red Bull is pulling out a big advantage in those corners...Hamilton is carrying way more speed into the corners and able to match the apex speeds of the Red Bull with superior downforce (if Paddy’s assertion is true)...how can that be explained? And the Merc is clearly superior in the low speed corners, and has a big punch out of most corners too.

While this is quite depressing, the Hungary plot is a lot more encouraging, where in the first half of the lap the Merc doing it’s usual thing but the RB was fighting back in the second half gaining handsomely in some corners. I hope this trend continues into 2017.

I found the overall plot too if reading the speed trace was hard:

[Dr Z]

Seeing a few of you like these mangled analyses I post, I did a short analysis of tyre usage from last year, and wanted to post some predictions before a wheel has turned for the weekend but only got around to it now.

Of the 13 sets of dry tyre allocations for each weekend per driver, the teams must return 2 sets at the conclusion of a practice session (6 sets returned in total before qualifying). So the tyre choices this weekend, gives a glimpse as to what tyres the top teams will be focusing on in the practice sessions for their preferred strategy.

Among the 2-stopping drivers last year, these were the stint lengths in the 2nd and 3rd stints for the Soft and Medium tyre.

Tyre	Stint	Average laps	Max laps
Medium	2nd	17.17	19
Medium	3rd	19.43	23
Soft	2nd	13.14	17
Soft	3rd	13.5	16

Usually, you see teams are happy to run a tyre for around 20% more of the race distance in the final stint compared to the heavier fuelled 1st or 2nd stints, but it seems not the case with the Soft tyre--teams preferring to split the race distance equally among the 2nd/3rd stints on the Soft. However, the Medium tyre was used to cover more race distance in the 3rd stint vs the 2nd as expected. I don't fully appreciate why teams were reluctant to do the same with the Soft tyre, but I think there are clues in the lap time comparison between Vettel and Grosjean in last year's race. Instead of plotting it myself, here is a nice comparison:

http://en.mclarenf-1.com/index.php?page=chart&...

Both of them started the race at similar positions on the grid but the Lotus had more inherent pace in qualifying than the Ferrari. The lap times suggest that there is a bigger lap time delta between old vs new Softs than the Mediums. In the 1st half of the race, Grosjean on new Softs gained 5.5 seconds on Vettel in 3 laps vs Vettel was on 10 lap old Softs. The undercut is going to play a big part this race.

Compare their times on the Medium tyre when Grosjean pitted under the VSC while Vettel didn’t...it took Grosjean around 21 laps to close down a gap of ~5.2 seconds and a lap time gain of ~1.7s in the first 5 laps for Grosjean. This is another big clue...under normal circumstances, it will be impossible to make up the time loss in the pits in a 3-stop strategy vs a 2-stop on cars that are at similar pace. At first glance, Ferrari’s tyre selection suggests they may be going for a 3-stop but I think there is still some flexibility there.

Here’s how I think the race distances will be split on a 2-stop vs 3-stop strategy for Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari. My prediction for the Super soft is based on other circuits where it is normally run for around 70% of the race distance of the Softs.

Team	Strategy	1st Stint	2nd Stint	3rd Stint	4th Stint
Ferrari	2 stop	SS 8	S 17	S 19	-
Ferrari	3 stop	SS 8	S 13	S 13	SS 10
Red Bull	2 stop	SS 8	M 19	S 17	-
Red Bull	3 stop	SS 5	S 15	M 16	SS 9
Mercedes	2 stop	SS 8	M 20	S 16	-
Mercedes	3 stop	SS 7	S 14	S 15	SS 8

Except the first stint, I haven’t put the tyres in order so it may be switched around depending on race situation. For Hamilton starting near the back, I think it may be favourable to start on the Soft tyres, or may be even the Mediums with the advantage that car has on this track he’s not likely to lose a lot of time to others on the 1st stint where most top 10 drivers are not pushing to the limit on the super soft anyway.

For Ferrari I have assumed that they are not going to use the Medium tyre unlike Red Bull and Mercedes. It looks like a slower strategy for Ferrari but if the conditions are hot, the Ferrari might work the Soft tyres well enough to get themselves in play at the front.

In the 3-stop for Red Bull, I have included the Medium tyre--it is not ideal to run a slower tyre on a ‘fast’ strategy but I’m assuming Red Bull will do an early first stop like they did last year in which case, it will be hard to run the Soft to meet the required stint lengths and have good performance left to react to a situation in-race. Depends if there’s no one in sight for miles either side.

I have always put the Super Soft in the final stint of a 3-stopper, but it may be substituted for Softs depending on the longevity of the performance available on the Super Softs. If there is a big drop off in performance of Super Softs after 4-5 hard laps, then it may be favourable to run the Softs in the final stint if there's a good chance of catching an opponent to overtake. All depends on the race situation.

FP2 starting soon...may have a look at long runs tomorrow if I have time.

Edited by Dr Z on Friday 26th August 11:57

[Dr Z]

Predicted track temp for the weekend...may touch 40 C tomorrow and get close to it in the race. Not particularly hot for tyre deg to come into play, but hot enough for all tyres to be working well I think..

[Dr Z]

Raikkonen looking quick...Vettel looking wild!

[Dr Z]

Gary C said:

Dr z, Will anyone need use the super softs to get into q3 ?, do the ss give enough that merc,RB,Ferrari would have to use them too?

Seems unlikely but it would make things interesting

It's a good point, I think we could well see Merc going through to Q3 on the Soft. There aren't enough cars in the midfield fast enough to surprise them if it came to taking advantage of the performance difference of the Soft vs Super softs.

After a brief look at the long runs I will add Force India to the quick cars Hamilton will have to overtake on Sunday along with Red Bull and Ferrari.

[Dr Z]

cheddar said:

Has anyone got speed trap data please?

From FP2 (only top 6 cars though):



The Ferraris were on a low downforce setup I think, and they both were losing a huge amount of time in sector 2 and 3. I'd be surprised if they don't beef up the wing/downforce levels tomorrow.

[Dr Z]

This might be a good time to post the long run calcs I did...

Tyre	Driver	No. of laps	Minimum	75% Percentile	Maximum	Average	SD	Slope
Super Soft	BUT	3	1: 55.7	1: 56.4	1: 56.4	1: 55.9	0.4134	0.043 ± 0.071
Super Soft	HUL	8	1: 54.4	1: 55.9	1: 56.3	1: 55.5	0.6177	0.17 ± 0.069
Super Soft	KVY	3	1: 55.1	1: 57.4	1: 57.4	1: 56.3	1.173	0.13 ± 0.05
Super Soft	MAS	4	1: 54.2	1: 56.1	1: 56.2	1: 55.3	0.8707	0.052 ± 0.039
Super Soft	NAS	5	1: 56.7	1: 57.6	1: 57.9	1: 57.2	0.4521	0.2 ± 0.046
Super Soft	PAL	7	1: 55.6	1: 57.6	1: 59	1: 57.2	1.026	0.086 ± 0.047
Super Soft	PER	6	1: 53.2	1: 55.8	1: 56.3	1: 54.8	1.105	0.053 ± 0.046
Super Soft	RIC	6	1: 53.5	1: 55.9	1: 56.6	1: 55.1	1.192	0.0019 ± 0.015
Super Soft	SAI	3	1: 55.7	1: 57.1	1: 57.1	1: 56.6	0.7706	0.047 ± 0.042
Super Soft	VES	4	1: 53.3	1: 55.8	1: 55.9	1: 55	1.184	0.2 ± 0.06
Super Soft	VET	5	1: 54	1: 55.7	1: 55.9	1: 55.1	0.7012	0.48 ± 0.11
Super Soft	WEH	4	1: 55.3	1: 56.3	1: 56.4	1: 55.9	0.4797	0.46 ± 0.28
Soft	ALO	5	1: 55.5	1: 57.7	1: 58	1: 56.8	1.05	0.38 ± 0.058
Soft	BOT	7	1: 54.2	1: 55.2	1: 55.2	1: 55	0.3718	0.4 ± 0.063
Soft	BUT	4	1: 55.7	1: 56	1: 56	1: 55.9	0.1303	0.31 ± 0.066
Soft	ERI	9	1: 55.6	1: 57.3	1: 57.9	1: 56.9	0.6762	0.38 ± 0.17
Soft	HAM	11	1: 53.6	1: 55.2	1: 55.9	1: 54.7	0.6229	0.21 ± 0.052
Soft	HUL	4	1: 54.7	1: 55.7	1: 55.8	1: 55.3	0.4349	0.31 ± 0.034
Soft	MAG	11	1: 55.9	1: 59.6	2: 00.0	1: 58	1.395	0.12 ± 0.15
Soft	MAS	7	1: 55.4	1: 56.7	1: 56.8	1: 56.3	0.5175	0.15 ± 0.045
Soft	NAS	4	1: 56.2	1: 58.4	1: 58.5	1: 57.3	1.039	0.73 ± 0.23
Soft	PAL	8	1: 54.9	1: 57.6	1: 58.6	1: 56.8	1.112	0.34 ± 0.071
Soft	PER	5	1: 53.8	1: 55.3	1: 55.5	1: 54.8	0.6523	0.41 ± 0.077
Soft	RAI	8	1: 54.7	1: 57.4	1: 58	1: 56.5	1.093	0.23 ± 0.079
Soft	RIC	7	1: 53.7	1: 55	1: 55	1: 54.5	0.5396	0.32 ± 0.065
Soft	ROS	7	1: 53.4	1: 56	1: 56.6	1: 54.7	1.164	0.8 ± 0.055
Soft	SAI	9	1: 55.9	1: 57.5	1: 57.6	1: 57	0.521	0.14 ± 0.086
Soft	VES	7	1: 53.5	1: 55.4	1: 55.4	1: 54.5	0.7505	0.3 ± 0.03
Soft	VET	6	1: 53.7	1: 55.8	1: 56.7	1: 55.3	0.9956	0.22 ± 0.049
Soft	WEH	8	1: 56.3	1: 58.5	1: 58.7	1: 57.4	0.9391	0.66 ± 0.087
Medium	ALO	7	1: 55.8	1: 56.4	1: 56.7	1: 56.1	0.305	0.65 ± 0.16
Medium	HAM	9	1: 53.8	1: 55.5	1: 57.1	1: 54.9	1.014	0.37 ± 0.13
Medium	HUL	9	1: 54.8	1: 55.1	1: 55.3	1: 55	0.1385	0.59 ± 0.029
Medium	KVY	5	1: 55.1	1: 57.4	1: 57.7	1: 56.6	0.9916	0.43 ± 0.063
Medium	OCO	10	1: 58	1: 58.9	1: 59.2	1: 58.5	0.4216	0.37 ± 0.045
Medium	PER	9	1: 54.8	1: 56.5	1: 56.7	1: 55.7	0.6757	0.62 ± 0.46
Medium	ROS	7	1: 54.9	1: 55.8	1: 55.9	1: 55.4	0.3565	0.45 ± 0.22

Hard to gauge the speed improvement of the McLaren as they were simply hanging around on the 1:55s. Qualifying should give us some indication of their potential.

As ever, look at the slope, average and the min/max times to get an idea of the pecking order...the Red Bull looks to be a match for the Merc whichever way you look so it won't be plain sailing for Rosberg at the front...and oh look Ferrari have done some homework overnight too. It's shaping up well...hope Merc don't turn it up to 11 to surprise us all.

[Dr Z]

glazbagun said:

Admit it DrZ- there's no way you're quitting these threads, your inner boffin would never allow it!

It certainly seems to be getting tighter than before in ths V6T era. I'll he interested in seeing how Rosberg copes- at the end of last season he seemed to find a new confidence, while the imperious Hamilton of 2015 seemed a memory.

If Rosberg doesn't maximise this chance I can see it being a real ego blow and a sign that Merc arent guaranteed the victory any more.

Sorry, the data was too good! If the Merc looked miles in front of everybody I wouldn't have bothered!

I'm waiting for normal service to be resumed in a few mins.

[Dr Z]

cgt2 said:

deeen said:

He really looks unhappy... did the wrong driver get on the front row? New script required?

It appears he's already thinking about the sh*tstorm that will erupt over respective strategies if the kid wins again.

Realistically, I think Ricciardo, Raikkonen, Vettel and Rosberg have a better chance of winning the race as they're starting on the more durable tyre, unless Verstappen can get into the lead and control the race from the front. It will be tough for him, but RB have played a great strategy with both their drivers. Rain should further mix things up, but the timing will be very important--if rain arrives after Verstappen has pitted and everyone around him is still going along in the 1st stint, that'll be his race done. Should be a fascinating race, and if the field is close at the sharp end in Spa, it bodes well for the rest of the year.

[Dr Z]

Derek Smith said:

cgt2 said:

Dr Z said:

Realistically, I think Ricciardo, Raikkonen, Vettel and Rosberg have a better chance of winning the race as they're starting on the more durable tyre, unless Verstappen can get into the lead and control the race from the front. It will be tough for him, but RB have played a great strategy with both their drivers. Rain should further mix things up, but the timing will be very important--if rain arrives after Verstappen has pitted and everyone around him is still going along in the 1st stint, that'll be his race done. Should be a fascinating race, and if the field is close at the sharp end in Spa, it bodes well for the rest of the year.

I'm thinking rain Doc..

Or a pace car just as his tyres go off and all the leaders charging into the pits. MV will have got his SS stint out of the way.

All sorts of possibilities.

Sure, but the Super Soft in the final stint/2nd half of the race would be the faster option...I doubt Max will be able to extract the full performance of the SS tyre in the heavier 1st stint. A shower at the right time might help him.

hairyben said:

Even putting the rain aside maxs strat looks weak, early stopping will put him right back in the pack, unless its a bit cooler tomorrow?

Yeah, just checked the predicted track temps for the race, and it has changed to around mid 30 C, so definitely cooler than today which would help Max. But the temps are predicted to go down further as the race progresses as there's some cloud cover (see below), so I would think a SS stint on lighter fuel loads would be more favourable...

The tyre performance from yesterday's long runs are inline with what I predicted earlier in the thread so the stint lengths should apply. It's hard to judge how quick the Merc is compared to the competition, but I'd estimate Rosberg's long run on the Soft yesterday to be around 0.2s/lap quicker than the Red Bull. Verstappen should be able to hang in there reasonably well at the start tomorrow but if my calculations are correct, his tyres should start to go off 3-4 laps earlier than the Soft (which in turn should go off after 12 laps). I can see a daring pass at the start, but it's harder to 'nurse' the tyres when the car is heavy so I doubt he'd be able to pull out a big enough advantage on pace and match the stint lengths of the others on the Soft.

[Dr Z]

cheddar said:

Dr Z, as always, thank you

Have the Mercs still got the dominant straight line pace they've had all season, the speed trap figures say maybe not and, on this circuit, with the most time spent north of 300 klickety klicks, it's crucial.........

No problem...oh yeah I'd still bet on a Merc winning this race but I'm impressed how close others are, close enough for a driver to make a difference and that's something that gets my interest going.

[Dr Z]

Just caught up with the race, bit of a let down after the 1st corner incident I thought...I would put a large proportion of the blame on Vettel although he could claim to be a bit surprised that Verstappen put his car at the apex along with Raikkonen. Some of Verstappen's later indiscretions were a bit cringeworthy...the Stewards seem to think it's fine, so a bit confused.

After all the hype of Hamilton coming from the back passing people, that one didn't yield much excitement either...I saw one quick car he passed under DRS...did anybody else see a great pass? For a guy who pounded round every practice session working on race performance, he hardly set the track alight when it comes to race pace I thought. At the end trying really hard he put in a lap 2 tenths faster than what Rosberg had set 30-odd laps earlier. He seemed to struggle on the Soft tyre as well (hence the final stint on the Mediums?). Ain't a vintage Hamilton race, that's for sure. Strange, if lucky race for him. I guess it evens out the earlier bad luck he suffered due to Merc unreliability.

Good result for McLaren I guess, keeping some fast cars behind on pace...Massa was clearly struggling but I wonder if Bottas would have found a way past Alonso if he'd have been released a few laps earlier...it looked like Alonso was controlling the pack behind well. It would have been interesting to see what Button could have done too.

You've got to feel for Hulk, he was in a great position before the red flag. He would have led the race as Rosberg and Ricciardo pitted. It would have been a more interesting race if the red flag didn't neutralise the race...the rule change regarding this next year is very welcome.

Blayney said:

suffolk009 said:

Rosberg had a great day testing. I can hardly wait for three years hence, when he is in an average car, finds himself racing midfield and going backwards in the race.

This interested me as it's an opinion that I've held for the last few years (that Rosberg qualifies well and then goes backwards). So I've collected the data and worked it out...

I have obviously excluded races where Rosberg retired from the race, retired but was still classified, set no qualifying time.

Overall for his entire career he has finished 0.23 positions higher than he started. Doesn't mean much does it? I suppose it means statistically over such a big number of results he has finished or qualified more or less where the car should be.

It perhaps is worth considering that often there will be retirements ahead of a driver too that bump up their finishing position and on the other hand car failures that lower a result through no fault of the driver.

So what was interesting that I found? Well that Rosberg benefited from Piquet Jnrs Singapore crash and got 2nd place, his highest at that point.

Here's the results for each season

2006 3 positions higher than quali
2007 0.71 positions higher than quali
2008 1.75 positions higher than quali
2009 0.25 positions higher than quali
2010 1.44 positions higher than quali
2011 1 position lower than quali
2012 0.41 positions higher than quali
2013 0.81 positions lower than quali
2014 0.82 positions lower than quali
2015 0.24 positions lower than quali
2016* 1.08 positions lower than quali

• season obviously ongoing

So what can we deduce from this? On the face of it Rosberg was better in races than quali at the start of his career and that situation has now changed. This could be down to the Williams being a midfield car and Rosberg picking up places as people retired, whereas the Mercedes has been dominant for a long time now and if you are on pole you either finished where you started or worse!

Regarding the oft toted statement "Rosberg can only win from the front". It's true.

20 wins, 13 from pole, 18 from the front row, 2 from 3rd (both in 2014).

His biggest swing from quali to race is 19th to 9th but he was technically last in that race. (2006 USA) Next is 18th to 9th in 2008 British GP. According to the race report he had suspension issues in quali and actually started from the pitlane after making changes. During the race he crashed into Timo Glock trying to overtake him but was able to continue.

Make what you will from all of that...

A man after my own heart I see! I think you covered most points in the above, however, I think it would be better to list the qualifying positions and race finishing positions rather than as a relative change in positions. As you have pointed out, if you qualify on the front row you are either going backwards or winning so an average qualifying position over a season of <2 means a top car and I don't believe it is right to use stats from that particular season to support the claim that 'Rosberg can only win from the front'.

IMO, the only way to determine if a certain driver is a good racer is measure their average finishing position when they don't have a top qualifying car (i.e. average qualifying position>2), and it's a bit unfair (and possibly biased) to then attribute the entire season's worth of data to other competitors retiring. This may hold water if we're talking about the 50s or 60s, however, in the modern era with so many races in a year, the number of outliers affecting the average position will be very small and so won't skew the overall picture you're seeing.

I really ought to get that stats/f1 history thread started soon...

[Dr Z]

Blayney said:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B5ETHyX6ZMDFZzNoS...

That's the full file. I apologise for any mistakes made! Going off Rosbergs performance in the Williams and early Mercedes he seems to go forward in races. I'm still not convinced the raw data is enough to draw any real conclusions though... just interesting to have a look!

Thanks for that, it's certainly interesting and now let me convince you that he's not as bad as it looks...

The one big aspect that's missing is that all that lovely data should be placed in context of his team mate to get a real idea of his performance. So, he seems to be going backwards in the races in relation to his qualifying position in quite a few of his seasons, but is it down to the car being not inherently not as good as it was in qualifying compared to the race? Or is it purely down to driver performance? How do you determine which had a greater influence?

As I have said, it's not reliable to use stats from when a driver has a top qualifying car to measure his race performances as the only way is backwards. These are factors that cannot be easily disentangled. Put within the context of the team mate however, it will be clear who got more performance out of the car in qualifying vs the race. But then it comes down to how strong the team mate is generally considered to be, so you give more weight to good performances against a stronger team mate in a midfield car than a weak team mate in a top car or a weak team mate in a midfield car for that matter.

The ironic thing is, if you devalue Rosberg as a driver, you are devaluing Hamilton's own performances too. It's the same story as Vettel vs Webber, and it's why we talk about Senna vs Prost in such high regard as even when they had top cars they were considered to be a match for each other...even if their racing styles were very different.

I did the same as you, excluding races where one or both drivers did not finish. These were the results for Rosberg and his team mates:

-	-	-	Rosberg	Teammate	Rosberg	Teammate	Rosberg	Teammate
Reliability	Teammate (s)	Year	Q	Q	R	R	Q*	Q*
22%	Webber	2006	13.5	10.75	10	7.25	12.39	10.833
65%	Wurz/Nakajima	2007	9.91	15.55	9.91	10.73	9.47	15.88
78%	Nakajima	2008	12.71	15.5	10.57	12.86	11.94	15.06
76%	Nakajima	2009	8.85	12.77	7.23	12.46	8.41	12.65
79%	Schumacher	2010	7.8	9.33	6.93	8.8	7.32	9.42
68%	Schumacher	2011	7.62	11	7.31	8.54	7.53	10.32
50%	Schumacher	2012	11.1	9.2	10.6	9.5	9.45	9.05
79%	Hamilton	2013	4.26	3.53	5	5.6	4.42	3.21
74%	Hamilton	2014	1.71	4.5 (2.16)	2.71 (1.84)	1.5	1.68	3.95 (2.24)
84%	Hamilton	2015	1.75	1.38	2.22	1.81	2.05	1.58
92%	Hamilton	2016	1.5	6.25 (2.44)	2.58	2.33 (1.77)	1.54	5.85 (2.3)

Reliability is no. of races when both drivers finished divided by total no. of races expressed as percentage.

Q* is average qualifying position in all races. Q and R numbers are average when both drivers finished. In some instances I have given another number in brackets which denote the average position excluding races/qualifying when the driver had reliability issues. I've only done this for 2014-2016 as the car was dominant and some outliers had a large effect on the average number.

2006 You'd say he's been comprehensively beaten by Webber but you have to give some concessions for a rookie year and that too in a woefully unreliable car (sample size of 4 doesn't go very far). However, he's still making good progress in the races where they both finished--about the same rate as Webber too.

2007-2009 Generally seems to qualify a lot higher than his team mates and except 2007 makes good progress in the race too (relative to team mates). But since the team mates are not generally considered to be strong...you have to assume Rosberg is extracting the maximum from the car. Data is inconclusive.

2010-2012 is very interesting. At last some proper competition...but you can't be serious about what we're seeing here? Even if you concede 2010 as a 'back to school' season for Schumacher, 2011 is surprising too. Now you start to get an idea of the level Rosberg is operating at. There's an interesting swing back towards Schumacher in 2012 but it is quite clear that the car is now worser than when Schumacher joined as the average finishing positions and overall reliability gets steadily worse from 2010 to 2012.

2013 A big test now. Hamilton is immediately quicker demonstrating his superiority in single lap pace over Rosberg but the car eats it's tyres in the races, so they both go backwards...Hamilton a little more than Rosberg. So who is maximising that car's potential?

2014 Wow...what a gift from Mercedes. The car is the class of the field, and Rosberg is clearly the quicker driver over a lap but Hamilton outpaces him in the races to take the Championship.

2015 Rosberg's average qualifying position is similar to 2014 but Hamilton is now quicker over a lap and race. You'd expect this, see Vettel vs Webber 2011.

2016 He has picked up his performance in qualifying but in a rerun of 2014, is getting outraced. It is notable that there is a steady deterioration in Rosberg's race finishing positions from 2014-2016...perhaps a sign of the strain placed on him fighting for the Championship for 3 consecutive years in a losing cause.

As for how good he is as a racer, you can't be bringing in performances as in 2007-2012 in a midfield car without being a good racer...and that also includes having to overtake other drivers. Yes, he's not as celebrated as his more illustrious team mate, but that doesn't mean all those results from his years in the midfield were handed on a plate. He has had some questionable racecraft in the last three years, but I don't know if fighting for the Championship had changed his mentality or if he had the same traits in the midfield. Apart from 2012 Bahrain when he pushed Hamilton and Alonso off track on the straight, I don't know of any other instances.

[Dr Z]

FourWheelDrift said:

HustleRussell said:

Who was it that went around the outside of Felipe Massa in the right hander at Les Combes? One of the Force Indias? That was pretty special.

Sergio Perez.


They have completely forgot about Canada 2014 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fO43-0Pooz4

Oh yes, that pass was fantastic!

Fancy trying that on Max?

[Dr Z]

Blayney said:

Dr Z said:

Lot's of superb work

Some very interesting things to look at there! I find 2013 -> 2014 very interesting. It seems, as you say, Lewis got to grips with the car quickly, but suffered higher deg. He clearly must have worked on this for 2014 and Rosberg became the better qualifier... but the race is where the championship is won! Very interesting stuff, thank you.

Thanks...it does look like a yo yoing of qualifying vs race performance between them, but Rosberg looks fairly adaptable too with his performances in 2010 vs 2011 as the tyre supplier changed, and to beat Hamilton at his own game in 2014 qualifying. But as you say it's the races where Championships are won.

Crafty_ said:

Dr Z said:

-	-	-	Rosberg	Teammate	Rosberg	Teammate	Rosberg	Teammate
Reliability	Teammate (s)	Year	Q	Q	R	R	Q*	Q*
22%	Webber	2006	13.5	10.75	10	7.25	12.39	10.833
65%	Wurz/Nakajima	2007	9.91	15.55	9.91	10.73	9.47	15.88
78%	Nakajima	2008	12.71	15.5	10.57	12.86	11.94	15.06
76%	Nakajima	2009	8.85	12.77	7.23	12.46	8.41	12.65
79%	Schumacher	2010	7.8	9.33	6.93	8.8	7.32	9.42
68%	Schumacher	2011	7.62	11	7.31	8.54	7.53	10.32
50%	Schumacher	2012	11.1	9.2	10.6	9.5	9.45	9.05
79%	Hamilton	2013	4.26	3.53	5	5.6	4.42	3.21
74%	Hamilton	2014	1.71	4.5 (2.16)	2.71 (1.84)	1.5	1.68	3.95 (2.24)
84%	Hamilton	2015	1.75	1.38	2.22	1.81	2.05	1.58
92%	Hamilton	2016	1.5	6.25 (2.44)	2.58	2.33 (1.77)	1.54	5.85 (2.3)

Is the scenario of "finished but car crippled" taken in to account ? 92% reliability doesn't seem to reflect the Merc this year, least not in Hamilton's corner.

That number only reflects the percentage of races both drivers have finished which is all but one. Except Baku and maybe Bahrain, Hamilton had a healthy car to race with as his problems were in or before qualifying.... Baku's result skews his qualifying average a bit (1.4 vs 2.3) but that was driver inflicted so a pretty fair reflection of things. Bahrain is racing, I guess? So, overall, a 92% reliability but the numbers in brackets should indicate how the performance was when mechanical unreliability were not a factor (i.e. excluding China, Russia and Belgium).

[Dr Z]

Z3MCJez said:

Dr Z said:

That number only reflects the percentage of races both drivers have finished which is all but one. Except Baku and maybe Bahrain, Hamilton had a healthy car to race with as his problems were in or before qualifying.... Baku's result skews his qualifying average a bit (1.4 vs 2.3) but that was driver inflicted so a pretty fair reflection of things. Bahrain is racing, I guess? So, overall, a 92% reliability but the numbers in brackets should indicate how the performance was when mechanical unreliability were not a factor (i.e. excluding China, Russia and Belgium).

It's a harsh man that blames Hamilton's race problems in Baku on Hamilton. Not qualifying, which was entirely his problem, but in the race he had a badly configured ECU and had to guess his way out of it.

Anyway, I guess you really aren't going to start the Monza thread. Anyone else ...

Jez

RTFM!

Joking aside, I left his race finishing position in because it doesn't affect his average all that much nor does it detract from the overall point: he has been outpacing his teammate in the race. He finished 5th in Baku and was looking at a possible 3rd. Given, how much he's been outpacing Rosberg this year, I feel 3rd vs 5th won't make a blind bit of difference in the grand scheme of things. This is easily going to be his 4th WDC.

Ps: sorry yes I'm not getting a huge amount of free time at work these days.

[Dr Z]

Flooble said:

Hamilton didn't exactly rocket forward from the back of the grid - even left behind by a McLaren. The third place is a bit of a flatter to deceive I feel - take away the various crashes and I doubt he'd have made it into the top ten. Not convinced he'll have it that easy. Especially as all the Mercedes customer teams will get uprated engines after Japan, while he'll still be on the old spec.

I believe we were talking about his problems in the Baku GP...but I agree that third place in this race was due to a large slice of luck, I still think he'd have been well into points on a normal race. I would put his finishing position anywhere between 5-7.

I'm convinced that he'll be able to win this WDC comfortably because of the buffer Merc have built up on Red Bull and Ferrari drivers, his only real challenger is Rosberg and he has outraced him whenever they both finish. Now he's got more than enough PUs for the rest of the season, if anything Rosberg will be on the backfoot on mileage/performance.

The late season upgrade could help Rosberg but Hamilton will be able to run his PUs harder to match. Unless he suffers further reliability problems which could provide a twist in the tail...Hamilton has got this one in the bag I feel.