View from the sceptical side

[babatunde]

http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/01/whitney-tilson-ne...
His words...........
I attended Tesla’s tour of its Gigafactory in Sparks, NV (about 25 min outside Reno) from 9am to noon last Wed. There were about ~150 of us, most of whom appeared to be institutional investors
My comments:

I was dumb enough to be short TSLA from ~$35 to ~$205 from early 2013 to early 2014 and, after that traumatic experience

Overall, I was quite impressed and have decided not to short the stock – though with some feelings of regret because I think there’s a decent chance it works on the short side, but this is offset by my feeling that there’s maybe a 20% chance that Musk and Straubel pull another inside straight and the stock spikes upward.

· A friend in the know told me that the companies top engineers graduating from the top schools most want to work at are Google, Facebook and Tesla. And if you want to actually MAKE something – – then it’s Tesla (and, if you’re into rockets, SpaceX) – and who else? I find it hard to believe that any top young engineer (the kind of person who actually WANTS to work 16-hour days) is going to take a job at GM over Tesla (or Lockheed Martin over SpaceX). Why would I want to be short the best, hardest-working engineering talent in the world?

· Tesla has built a very powerful brand. A BrandZ study from last June ranks it 10th in vehicle brands – but my gut says it’s a lot higher. Everyone I know/have met who owns a Tesla is intensely, passionately in love with it. That’s REALLY powerful.....

Interesting reading

[babatunde]

REALIST123 said:

Imo there'll be no industrial revolution until they become widely affordable across the full range of needs and that's not going to happen unless there are several players and they'll come from the existing manufacturers. They can't afford not to.

I'd be surprised if the major manufacturers aren't quite ready to move when they have to; might be quite smart to let Tesla dig the hard ground.

Letting others do the hard work is exactly how new companies become disruptive, it's really really hard to change a companies culture, it#s why the Nokia's & blackberry's of the world failed. when most of your IP, knowledge and experiences are tied directly in ICE's discarding that, then believing and acting on the belief that EV's are the immediate future isn't easy.

[babatunde]

REALIST123 said:

babatunde said:

REALIST123 said:

Imo there'll be no industrial revolution until they become widely affordable across the full range of needs and that's not going to happen unless there are several players and they'll come from the existing manufacturers. They can't afford not to.

I'd be surprised if the major manufacturers aren't quite ready to move when they have to; might be quite smart to let Tesla dig the hard ground.

Letting others do the hard work is exactly how new companies become disruptive, it's really really hard to change a companies culture, it#s why the Nokia's & blackberry's of the world failed. when most of your IP, knowledge and experiences are tied directly in ICE's discarding that, then believing and acting on the belief that EV's are the immediate future isn't easy.

The 'Nokia's & blackberry's' (sic) failed because they failed to innovate. Maybe it was their cultures that led them to do that.

Many of the major manufacturers have proven records in innovation. Not only that, some of them are already competing and beating Tesla in areas with more immediate relevance. E.g. the i3 is technologically ahead of any Tesla, albeit in a small area of application.

They've also been put on political notice that their traditional technologies will be legislated against so I really can't see them all, or even many of them, failing to compete in future technology.

And that's the important point; competition. Without it there won't be true development and the technology will remain unaffordable to the masses. I'm sure it'll happen.

I think I used the wrong word not innovation, it's more like a "paradigm shift" innovation can be small steps a more accurate description of the move from the ICE to the EV would be a paradigm shift.

In addition its not just the EV it's also the way its being built, like a computer or phone, ditto the automation efforts, the Gigafactory is IMO a big part of that clean sheet approach not just powering vehicles but static installations as well, its a whole bold brand new way of doing things and like the Iphone I don't think the GMs and BMWs of the world quite understand the power of the coming storm hey nothing wrong with a bit of hyperbole

On a sub note, servicing, the traditional service interval is dead, the car knows when something isn't right and notifies the relevant persons, (owner/driver/service center) parts to be changed are ordered and ready, the self driving car looks at your schedule and knows when it can get the work done without interrupting your day, its a brave new world, not to worry though there is an underground of ICE users who horror upon horror prefer to drive themselves and have a secret emblem to identify each other, looks kind of like a skull and crossbones

[babatunde]

JonV8V said:

The self reporting failure has been in planning for a long time, it started with DTCs years ago and cars increasingly report back of all makes. That's not new.

What is interesting is Tesla have one of the shortest recommended service intervals of any modern car. Thats not innovation.

https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/support/service-plans

Same service plan that say this
If I choose not to service my Model S, will this void my warranty or Resale Value Guarantee?

It is highly recommended that you service your Model S once a year or every 12,500 mi. If you do not follow this recommendation, your New Vehicle Limited Warranty will not be affected.

Your Tesla vehicle is protected by a 4 year, 50,000 mi (whichever comes first) new vehicle limited warranty and 8 year, unlimited mile battery and drive unit warranty.

[babatunde]

more sceptics

62% Of Auto Execs Think EVs Will Fail Due To Infrastructure Challenges

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/01/31/62-auto-execs...

Because its really really hard to install a socket.

Also
“27% see BMW as unrivaled leader in autonomous driving followed by Tesla with 9% and Honda with 9%.” Some real Blackberry thinking going on here