Is the bubble about to burst?
Discussion
graemel said:
I guarantee that the bubble will burst two months before the restoration of my 67S is completed. It is nice to know you have an appreciating asset but I think like most of you guys I buy them to use and enjoy. I have just bought a 65 911 FIA historic race car. It will be pampered. It will be well cared for. But I intend to race the crap out of it.
Just don't look at Thomas's site. My old 993GT2 is about to come back on the market. I know what the asking will be. Am I depressed about it. Hell no. I got to enjoy it too the full. Had I have kept it the car would have ended up in a secure storage facility. Wrapped up in cotton wool and never driven. A crying shame. With the bubble about to burst that has been talked about for years would I have bailed at 350, 500, 750, 1000. Would I have had the balls to see it right the way through just to see how far fetched the number could be. Unlikely.
I think that we will see some price correction on the relatively mass produced stuff. But I believe in the numbers game. They built 256 911's in 1964 and 256 in 1965. I'm guessing that there is less than 50 left. 67S's built in 1966 there are three right hand drive cars left in the world. 993GT2 evo's they built 20 cars
Good post Graeme and trust you're well.Just don't look at Thomas's site. My old 993GT2 is about to come back on the market. I know what the asking will be. Am I depressed about it. Hell no. I got to enjoy it too the full. Had I have kept it the car would have ended up in a secure storage facility. Wrapped up in cotton wool and never driven. A crying shame. With the bubble about to burst that has been talked about for years would I have bailed at 350, 500, 750, 1000. Would I have had the balls to see it right the way through just to see how far fetched the number could be. Unlikely.
I think that we will see some price correction on the relatively mass produced stuff. But I believe in the numbers game. They built 256 911's in 1964 and 256 in 1965. I'm guessing that there is less than 50 left. 67S's built in 1966 there are three right hand drive cars left in the world. 993GT2 evo's they built 20 cars
With you on the 993 GT2 evo's don't think any bubble will affect these!!
You hit the nail on the head though, its nice to think your car from a value perspective is skyrocketing but there's no enjoyment involved with it wrapped in cotton wool in a de-humidified bubble somewhere is there, i've been there done that and was rather bored.
rubystone said:
F40s and Daytonas hit £700k during the last bubble. They dropped back to £150k and £85k respectively at their lowest levels. You don't need a calculator to establish that's way more than a 20% drop.
I think the blue chip cars such as F40s, Daytonas, 2.7 RS and anything limited in number from the prestige marques will maintain value unless being oversold. I don't see 2.7 RS at 7 figures though, unless they have a very special history. If a boggo touring in lhd light yellow gets there, I made a big mistake in letting one go last month...
I think that the more common cars - 308s, post G Series Porsches - for example, will find a floor around 30-50% of their top end value. After all, £25k is fair value for a decent 3.2 and £40k should be sensible for a 308, right? Cars such as the 355 and oversold 930s should take the biggest hit. I think they'll drop by at least 50%.
This.I think the blue chip cars such as F40s, Daytonas, 2.7 RS and anything limited in number from the prestige marques will maintain value unless being oversold. I don't see 2.7 RS at 7 figures though, unless they have a very special history. If a boggo touring in lhd light yellow gets there, I made a big mistake in letting one go last month...
I think that the more common cars - 308s, post G Series Porsches - for example, will find a floor around 30-50% of their top end value. After all, £25k is fair value for a decent 3.2 and £40k should be sensible for a 308, right? Cars such as the 355 and oversold 930s should take the biggest hit. I think they'll drop by at least 50%.
g7jhp said:
highway said:
The point missed with all this bubble bursting talk is simple. Porsche aren't making any more air-cooled cars. Whilst not the last word in driving enjoyment they are pretty, sound nice and ooze character. They don't come with too many electronics and for what seems like an increasing amount of people, they are more desirable than the current range. Unless draconian rules are brought in regarding emissions and/or driving non green cars in town, then scant see a bubble bursting anytime soon.
Its not just limited to Porsche either. Every other vaguely interesting marque has seen a resurgence of interest in its back catalogue.
Porsche haven't been making any more SC's for 33 years, 3.2's for 26 years, 964's for 22 years, 993's for 18 years. Why have people decided these are all suddenly worth something since circa 2014? Its not just limited to Porsche either. Every other vaguely interesting marque has seen a resurgence of interest in its back catalogue.
Because people have excess cash, other investments haven't been generating a return and the classic car market has shown as good a return as anything else.
The car pool is like the property pool. If you can't afford Chiswick you bought in Brentword or Ealing. If you couldn't get a manual 964 coupe, people are getting what they perceive as the next best be it a manual 964 targa or tip 964 coupe. They're not driving them, it's an investment.
Most people who drive an SC, 3.2 or 964 will feel it's heavy, agricultural and dated compared to modern cars. Even enthusiasts will admit they don't want to drive aircooled cars on a daily basis.
As a whole petrolheads are a shrinking breed, the kids of today rent cars they don't buy them. PH's, 911 UK, W90/L90 bring together a limited group of petrolheads with the money to buy these cars and people talk up the demand. Some do need to sell one car to buy another. A growing number of enthusiasts buying multiple 911's and swapping between models so always to be in a car.
I'd be happy for the bubble to pop as more cars would come onto the market, there would be a greater choice and we'd all have to pay less to move between cars. To me it's about driving great cars and sharing the the experience with fellow petrolheads.
With that in mind I have decided to wait until they drop before buying another. Looking at how slow they are moving now at the dealers and privately its only a matter of time before prices are corrected.
sng45 said:
YoungMD said:
So if a 3.2 is now worth £40k that means it's doubled is value over the last 2 maybe 3 years?
In pure economical terms that is a massive value increase, that can only be driven by supply reducing or demand increasing, has supply reduced? a little bit but not much, has demand increased, hell yes, but has genuine demand increased, do double the people now suddenly love and want a 3.2, compared to the 10 years prior? And that's my problem, genuine sustainable demand has not really increased, using houses as a comparison the answer is different of course, but 911 demand will reset more in line with history and thus prices will correct
I would suggest that demand for 3.2's ( and probably SC's ) has increased as a default position - previously ( 5-6 years ago ) people myself included would have (probably) bought a pre-impact 911 i.e S / E / T however the price of those cars has risen to such a degree that the next position on the ladder is a 3.2 so perhaps double the people do suddenly want a 3.2 or an SC , maybe not as a first choice but as an aircooled 911 default choice !In pure economical terms that is a massive value increase, that can only be driven by supply reducing or demand increasing, has supply reduced? a little bit but not much, has demand increased, hell yes, but has genuine demand increased, do double the people now suddenly love and want a 3.2, compared to the 10 years prior? And that's my problem, genuine sustainable demand has not really increased, using houses as a comparison the answer is different of course, but 911 demand will reset more in line with history and thus prices will correct
To use your house comparison, if people can't afford a four bedroomed house I guess they buy a three bedroomed one. There's an unlimited number of those around but the same can't be said of air cooled 911's !
I've owned around twenty three aircooled 911's ( and quite a few water cooled ones ) and the 911 I enjoy the most as a useable, driveable, enjoyable car is my 3.2 ( thanks Crimp !)
g7jhp said:
An interesting read "the 18 year property cycle" as I'm sure elements apply as much to the current car market as the property market!
We've hit media attention, enthusiasm of the general public and signs are that greed is here......
Very interesting and makes perfect sense We've hit media attention, enthusiasm of the general public and signs are that greed is here......
http://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/p...
Though this looks a lovely thing but it's still a LHD Sc with a badly matched engine lid and all for a snip at £45k!!
This is an example of a chancing dealer and an unfortunate individual who will no doubt loose their shirt
Though this looks a lovely thing but it's still a LHD Sc with a badly matched engine lid and all for a snip at £45k!!
This is an example of a chancing dealer and an unfortunate individual who will no doubt loose their shirt
Wozy68 said:
Why should anyone on here give a damn? Are we not mostly enthusiasts?
You buy a car and enjoy it and spend zillions on it to make it better or just keep it up together. Life's just so short, only fools or is that just really shallow people buy cars for investment potential only.
My aircooled 911 has been sat in the rain for the last few days. Do I give a damn. Nope, it's a car and I bought it to enjoy driving it.
Who gives a damn about China? If it's worth nothing tomorrow then so be it. I'll still enjoy driving her to the day I might may have to sell her. Loss or no loss.
With you there, whatever it's worth won't change the car or the driving experience in fact the more they are worth takes out the enjoyment IMO. Look after it drive it what will be will be. Fortunate for most of us "enthusiasts" we bought them when they were affordable. You buy a car and enjoy it and spend zillions on it to make it better or just keep it up together. Life's just so short, only fools or is that just really shallow people buy cars for investment potential only.
My aircooled 911 has been sat in the rain for the last few days. Do I give a damn. Nope, it's a car and I bought it to enjoy driving it.
Who gives a damn about China? If it's worth nothing tomorrow then so be it. I'll still enjoy driving her to the day I might may have to sell her. Loss or no loss.
Market has slowed down without a doubt, saying that there has been 930's/3.2's on sale for well over 12 months so it goes without saying that these cars have been overpriced despite the market slowing IMO
If I was in a position to buy I would be waiting 12-18 months for some price corrections
If I was in a position to buy I would be waiting 12-18 months for some price corrections
Now the winter months are looming you'll see some major price alterations over the coming period.
You also have to take into consideration that a lot of the so called classic stock hasn't even shifted over the Summer months. I would suggest that even the speculators of this world are realising that the prices are just over inflated
You also have to take into consideration that a lot of the so called classic stock hasn't even shifted over the Summer months. I would suggest that even the speculators of this world are realising that the prices are just over inflated
Shaoxter said:
Koln-RS said:
This one has been in the classifieds for months @ £54k.
So what do you do if it hasn't sold? Up the price by £20k, of course.
http://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/p...
So what do you do if it hasn't sold? Up the price by £20k, of course.
http://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/p...
To be honest I have been keeping my eye on the market for the last 2 yrs.
I think its slowing down in a big way now, cars have been hanging about gathering dust for nearly 2 yrs at least.
Going to be nice price corrections very soon IMO.
marky911 said:
I enquired about this a year or so ago.
http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Porsche-911-964-Cabriole...
Up for about £19k back then with a private seller, I emailed him a few questions regarding faults I could see in the pics, such as rear bumper not quite lining up properly, chipped and faded lights etc. If he'd have said "Yes it has a few niggles as well as x,y and z I'd have still been interested, I was just weighing up the car and its ownership, trying to form a picture of what it needed, as you do. Anyway, he didn't reply that, he replied one line saying "This isn't the car for you". It hung around for a good few weeks.
I now see it on with a dealer in the same condition for £37,000! I couldn't live with it at £19k let alone double that. Again it's hanging around.
Lots of chancers. The people who actually want or need to sell will be pricing things more realistically over the next few months as the sunny weather has drawn to an end and they now have the prospect of waiting until next summer to get top dollar and things may have cooled even more by then.
This is more sensible bar the wheels not being original and the interior needing a bit of tlc. Very sensibly priced though. In Guards red too.
http://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/p...
Hopefully when I'm looking to buy in a year or so things will be back to normal. Wishful thinking most probably but we'll see.
Think you'll be surprised mate, going to be a lot of shirts lost http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Porsche-911-964-Cabriole...
Up for about £19k back then with a private seller, I emailed him a few questions regarding faults I could see in the pics, such as rear bumper not quite lining up properly, chipped and faded lights etc. If he'd have said "Yes it has a few niggles as well as x,y and z I'd have still been interested, I was just weighing up the car and its ownership, trying to form a picture of what it needed, as you do. Anyway, he didn't reply that, he replied one line saying "This isn't the car for you". It hung around for a good few weeks.
I now see it on with a dealer in the same condition for £37,000! I couldn't live with it at £19k let alone double that. Again it's hanging around.
Lots of chancers. The people who actually want or need to sell will be pricing things more realistically over the next few months as the sunny weather has drawn to an end and they now have the prospect of waiting until next summer to get top dollar and things may have cooled even more by then.
This is more sensible bar the wheels not being original and the interior needing a bit of tlc. Very sensibly priced though. In Guards red too.
http://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/p...
Hopefully when I'm looking to buy in a year or so things will be back to normal. Wishful thinking most probably but we'll see.
bigunit00 said:
roygarth said:
Mmmm..that'll be a Targa with Tiptronic gearbox, 160k miles, no history and an aftermarket steering wheel! 
Lol.......or a pram version. Whoever thinks a nice 964 c2 manual coupe will be £20k again is having a laugh. Go buy a 2.9 cayman Gassing Station | Porsche General | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff