Hypercar bloodbath?

[LukeyLikey]

I've just read a piece by Harry Metcalfe in Octane magazine. The main points are;

- McLaren made around 100 F1s and will make 500 P1s
- Ferrari's F70 will be made at the same time with estimated production of over 500 (Enzo about 400)
- Porsche took plenty of orders for the 918, which promptly fell away when the £750k price tag was announced
- Jaguar will also launch their C-X hypercar at the same time

His point was not only the ambitious volumes from all of them during difficult times (even China is beginning to slow down) but the fact that it is all happening together.

Here's the question: this must lead to a used bloodbath about 2 years on, so is this an opportunity for car lovers like many of us, who might drop £200-£300k on a future classic but not £750k-£1m?

(Remember, even the Enzo fell early on from memory, in good economic times).

Secondly, if this happens, what will a load of low priced new hypercars do to the existing markets for F1, F40, F50, Enzo, Carrera GT and perhaps even Zondas?

Where will the value be?

Edited by LukeyLikey on Sunday 7th October 08:09

Edited by LukeyLikey on Sunday 7th October 08:12

[LukeyLikey]

matc said:

I agree though, if the market isn't there, they'll just stop making them.

I think that is a whole lot harder to do than it sounds. There will be loads of suppliers, who themselves have suppliers, of components and sub components, who will all have amortised development costs over a minimum amount, which. I doubt will be anything like 100, especially if their planning is to supply towards or even above 500.

They just won't be able to keep a lid on the costs if they drop the volume. Being a company, they will likely protect themselves by keeping volumes up and 'finding homes' for the additional production.

This means the customer quietly pays in depreciation and the market goes weak when it discovers there has been an oversupply about 2 years on.

The points made about the clouds on the horizon all over the globe are highly relevant. I think most of these things may not end up being as bad as they sound, but it definitely causes real uncertainty and a lack of confidence.

With that will come big opportunities (in cars and other things too) since high volatility leaves lots of winners and lots of losers.

Might be very interesting..

The Metcalfe piece is a single column on p23 of November's edition if you're interested.