WILL THE CURRENT MONEY CRISIS AFFECT US?
Discussion
Sub prime is simply going to shake out the idiot mortgage companies who gambled on a one way trip in terms of house prices.
they lent to people who couldnt afford to pay back the loans, banking on the value of their property to pay off the debt when they defaulted.
now that the housing stock in the USA is no longer bouyant they can no longer do so.
as far as i'm concerned, it will cause a small blip in values as confidence is shaken, then when the weak companies go bust, sensible credit arrangements will take the place of sub prime and the market will begin to recover.
This sort of thing happens every few years and simply hurts people who think the financial markets are a one way bet.
sadly it will simply mean the rich/poor divide will get wider as credit will be more difficult to get so less people on the housing ladder.
in terms of high end luxury items, it wont have a major impact, but there may be a few bargains to be had if anyone is caught and needs to panic sell
they lent to people who couldnt afford to pay back the loans, banking on the value of their property to pay off the debt when they defaulted.
now that the housing stock in the USA is no longer bouyant they can no longer do so.
as far as i'm concerned, it will cause a small blip in values as confidence is shaken, then when the weak companies go bust, sensible credit arrangements will take the place of sub prime and the market will begin to recover.
This sort of thing happens every few years and simply hurts people who think the financial markets are a one way bet.
sadly it will simply mean the rich/poor divide will get wider as credit will be more difficult to get so less people on the housing ladder.
in terms of high end luxury items, it wont have a major impact, but there may be a few bargains to be had if anyone is caught and needs to panic sell
Edited by Harsh on Wednesday 5th September 23:12
ufoufo said:
Will the current financial market uncertainty and housing market stagnation affect the Lambo/Ferrari market and by how much? Has anyone heard of anyone cancelling or putting off an order?
Why the sudden interest 
I quote you from Fchat....
"After searching for a used 360 F1 for a few months now, and deliberating about the obvious limitation of such a purchase- (limitation of everyday use due to mileage considerations and impracticality, ownership costs, people thinking that you are driving it to show off) - instead I bought an M3 SMG! I dont care what you drive but there is nothing that will touch this car as an allrounder for £30K for a 2 year old under 25,000miles-NOTHING. You can drive it everyday, it has a proper boot, fold-down rear seats, sat nav, bulletproof build quality, its discrete, but the best thing about it is the drive. Absolutely amazing! So waht is the point of a Ferrari? There is only one reason - EGO! - but very few on this forum will admit it.
PS I used to have a Testarossa- great to look at, even better to be seen in it but it was like driving a bus compared to this M3."
and yet on here you say you have a Diablo....
http://www.pistonheads.co.uk/gassing/topic.asp?h=0...
Edited by F355spider on Thursday 6th September 07:54
F355spider said:
ufoufo said:
Will the current financial market uncertainty and housing market stagnation affect the Lambo/Ferrari market and by how much? Has anyone heard of anyone cancelling or putting off an order?
Why the sudden interest I quote you from Fchat....
"After searching for a used 360 F1 for a few months now, and deliberating about the obvious limitation of such a purchase- (limitation of everyday use due to mileage considerations and impracticality, ownership costs, people thinking that you are driving it to show off) - instead I bought an M3 SMG! I dont care what you drive but there is nothing that will touch this car as an allrounder for £30K for a 2 year old under 25,000miles-NOTHING. You can drive it everyday, it has a proper boot, fold-down rear seats, sat nav, bulletproof build quality, its discrete, but the best thing about it is the drive. Absolutely amazing! So waht is the point of a Ferrari? There is only one reason - EGO! - but very few on this forum will admit it.
PS I used to have a Testarossa- great to look at, even better to be seen in it but it was like driving a bus compared to this M3."
and yet on here you say you have a Diablo....
http://www.pistonheads.co.uk/gassing/topic.asp?h=0...
Edited by F355spider on Thursday 6th September 07:54
Jules360 said:
F355spider said:
ufoufo said:
Will the current financial market uncertainty and housing market stagnation affect the Lambo/Ferrari market and by how much? Has anyone heard of anyone cancelling or putting off an order?
Why the sudden interest I quote you from Fchat....
"After searching for a used 360 F1 for a few months now, and deliberating about the obvious limitation of such a purchase- (limitation of everyday use due to mileage considerations and impracticality, ownership costs, people thinking that you are driving it to show off) - instead I bought an M3 SMG! I dont care what you drive but there is nothing that will touch this car as an allrounder for £30K for a 2 year old under 25,000miles-NOTHING. You can drive it everyday, it has a proper boot, fold-down rear seats, sat nav, bulletproof build quality, its discrete, but the best thing about it is the drive. Absolutely amazing! So waht is the point of a Ferrari? There is only one reason - EGO! - but very few on this forum will admit it.
PS I used to have a Testarossa- great to look at, even better to be seen in it but it was like driving a bus compared to this M3."
and yet on here you say you have a Diablo....
http://www.pistonheads.co.uk/gassing/topic.asp?h=0...
Edited by F355spider on Thursday 6th September 07:54
Harsh said:
Sub prime is simply going to shake out the idiot mortgage companies who gambled on a one way trip in terms of house prices.
they lent to people who couldnt afford to pay back the loans, banking on the value of their property to pay off the debt when they defaulted.
now that the housing stock in the USA is no longer bouyant they can no longer do so.
as far as i'm concerned, it will cause a small blip in values as confidence is shaken, then when the weak companies go bust, sensible credit arrangements will take the place of sub prime and the market will begin to recover.
This sort of thing happens every few years and simply hurts people who think the financial markets are a one way bet.
sadly it will simply mean the rich/poor divide will get wider as credit will be more difficult to get so less people on the housing ladder.
in terms of high end luxury items, it wont have a major impact, but there may be a few bargains to be had if anyone is caught and needs to panic sell
That is a bit too simplistic, as now the whole collateralised debt market is getting a caning. Sub prime is not just going to affect the investors/funds which went into that market, it will also affect private equity and financial markets in general. No one knows by how much, but you can be guaranteed, if people are uncertain about highly paid city jobs and bonuses, all luxury markets will suffer.they lent to people who couldnt afford to pay back the loans, banking on the value of their property to pay off the debt when they defaulted.
now that the housing stock in the USA is no longer bouyant they can no longer do so.
as far as i'm concerned, it will cause a small blip in values as confidence is shaken, then when the weak companies go bust, sensible credit arrangements will take the place of sub prime and the market will begin to recover.
This sort of thing happens every few years and simply hurts people who think the financial markets are a one way bet.
sadly it will simply mean the rich/poor divide will get wider as credit will be more difficult to get so less people on the housing ladder.
in terms of high end luxury items, it wont have a major impact, but there may be a few bargains to be had if anyone is caught and needs to panic sell
Edited by Harsh on Wednesday 5th September 23:12
The problem has now moved on from a problem with subprime to a crisi of confidence and liquidity. I will be happy to discuss at length if you wish but the major problems are highlighted on www.financialamegeddon.com.
Redwing said:
The problem has now moved on from a problem with subprime to a crisi of confidence and liquidity. I will be happy to discuss at length if you wish but the major problems are highlighted on www.financialamegeddon.com.
Hope your financial knowledge is better than your spelling of armageddon !! 
IMO, sub-prime will have a significant affect on many areas of many people lives, unless the central banks bail out the big players who are in trouble. Sorry, who dont know if they're in trouble or not. Whether or not this is the right thing to do is a mahooosive discussion for another time and another forum.
Will it hit car prices? I would say short term, no. Medium term, yes. If the markets remain unsettled, I think a lot of bonuses will be hit which will surely Ferrari, Lamborghini etc sales, both new and used.
I think this monster has got a long life yet and from what I hear/read, I dont think anyone really knows what the impact is really going to be.
All IMHO
Will it hit car prices? I would say short term, no. Medium term, yes. If the markets remain unsettled, I think a lot of bonuses will be hit which will surely Ferrari, Lamborghini etc sales, both new and used.
I think this monster has got a long life yet and from what I hear/read, I dont think anyone really knows what the impact is really going to be.
All IMHO
Within the UK at least we are not suffering from a "REAL" economic crisis.
A few mortgage lenders/banks (sivs) etc are simply suffering from a lack of liquidity (i.e they can't raise short term money through the money markets and are just being forced to "borrow" it instead). When this ridiculous over-reaction in the money markets shakes out it will be business as usual (in the UK).
A few hedge funds may go bust and a few private equity deals may now never happen but so what? Both groups thought they were financial/business geniuses but were never as bright as the returns they were producing- if a few go under it will be good for both industries.
As long as interest rates don't continue to climb (this financial hoo-ha has made this pretty impossible in the short term) then the country should be in good shape for some time.
I expect there to be absolutley ZERO effect on the demand for quick cars.
A few mortgage lenders/banks (sivs) etc are simply suffering from a lack of liquidity (i.e they can't raise short term money through the money markets and are just being forced to "borrow" it instead). When this ridiculous over-reaction in the money markets shakes out it will be business as usual (in the UK).
A few hedge funds may go bust and a few private equity deals may now never happen but so what? Both groups thought they were financial/business geniuses but were never as bright as the returns they were producing- if a few go under it will be good for both industries.
As long as interest rates don't continue to climb (this financial hoo-ha has made this pretty impossible in the short term) then the country should be in good shape for some time.
I expect there to be absolutley ZERO effect on the demand for quick cars.
If a few large banks, brokers, monoline insurers and large US car companies go to the wall because of a dificulty in short term funding the picture may not look so rosy. I've got to admit I agree with you about hedge funds, many of them were never as bright as they thought and they were, just replicating mistakes made many times before. They've just been doing carry trades, borrowing short term and investing long term.........and the road to hell is paved with carry!
positive carry for sale
http://www.iyc.com/iycFleet/main.asp?-vessel_basic...
bet he own(ed) a car or 2 as well
http://www.iyc.com/iycFleet/main.asp?-vessel_basic...
bet he own(ed) a car or 2 as well
AKA8 said:
Harsh said:
AK, i was trying to keep it simple on purpose.
laymans terms and all that.
it is more complex but the nuances change daily with perceptions, confidence and CB activity
Harsh, don't worry, I didn't mean you were stupid, I just thought you underestimated the impactlaymans terms and all that.
it is more complex but the nuances change daily with perceptions, confidence and CB activity
i'm quite happy to be stupid.make life so much simpler!
The impact will be considerable in the financial industry, however i do believe the press are responsible for a certain amount of scaremongering. it's a good story after all.
it will certainly shake things up, i'm enjoying going to work at the moment, the markets are jittery just like the old days. too many of the current crop of bankers are living in a comfort zone. it's nice to see them panic every now and then
i tend to agree with Murci boy's general view, although there may well be a few major casualties that will surprise people
Edited by Harsh on Thursday 6th September 14:08
LOLFor what its worth: A close study of the US Dow Jones market from 1792 will reveal that there are many cycles operating at the same time and the Dow Jones index chart/graph is merely their aggregation (or composite).
The current drop in prices is the result of a 22 month UP cycle coming to an end (I’ve been waiting for it since 2005). There is also a 5 year UP cycle coming to an end very shortly and when this bites you may see falls greater than those seen in the last couple of months (especially if some of the smaller cycles turn down at the same time).
The Supercar car market has its own cycles and there may not be a correlation with the Dow Jones.
The current drop in prices is the result of a 22 month UP cycle coming to an end (I’ve been waiting for it since 2005). There is also a 5 year UP cycle coming to an end very shortly and when this bites you may see falls greater than those seen in the last couple of months (especially if some of the smaller cycles turn down at the same time).
The Supercar car market has its own cycles and there may not be a correlation with the Dow Jones.
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