Deaths on the Roads

John Low takes a look at the factors affecting the death rates from the 50's through to the present day

By PH Staff / Thursday, 20 May 2004 / Loading comments

Like many of us, PHer John Low has been curious about the figures often quoted to us deaths on the roads. All manner of factors influence the figures and whilst some groups will bleat on that speed is the ultimate evil, he was curious to know what measures introduced in the past have had a significant influence on the death rate.

Thanks to the wonder of the internet, facts and figures are that much easier to come by these days and John seized the opportunity to do the research to satisfy his own curiosity.

Based on the research he did, John drew the following conclusions:

The MOT test and other "technical" legislation appear to have had little overall effect.
Following the introduction of the 70 mph limit, deaths fell quickly over the next few years, then rose again.
Following the introduction of the 50mph limit, deaths again fell quickly. However, they were falling before the 50 limit was introduced. Given the political situation at the time - oil crisis, Suez, etc - it's entirely possible that the prevailing culture was to drive more carefully, speed limit or not. Vehicle use also fell during this period. As the political situation eased, the death rate rose again.
When the speed limit was increased from 50mph back to 60/70, deaths fell. This was also the time of the first major campaign on drink driving.
Intense campaining in the early 1990s appears to have made a huge difference, the fastest recorded fall in road deaths apart from when vehicle use fell in the early 70s (see above). This was primarily around drink driving and wearing seatbelts, and a little about speeding.
Since 1994, with an ongoing intense programme of campaigns together with an explosionin the number of speed cameras, total road deaths have almost completely levelled off. The rate of fall of deaths relative to road use has halved.
Bearing in mind the improvement in vehicle safety in the last 10 years, it would be interesting to see total reported accidents. I’d assume that total no. of accidents will have increased in that time.
The introduction of the driving theory test in 1996 may have contributed to the fall in deaths in 1998. But if so, why has the fall not been sustained?
The general falling trend in total deaths from 1965-1990 appears to level out through the late 1980s. However, the late 1980s saw the fastest rise in vehicle use.
The recession of the early 1990s shows up in the plateau in road use at that time.
The deaths relative to road use shows a reasonably consistent downward trend from 1969 to 1994. The downward trend is much lower from 1995 to 2002. The method for calculating the total road use changed in 1993, making direct numerical comparisons with previous years difficult. However, the downwards trend – ie, the slope of the graph - should not have changed for the worse, which it has.

Based on a swift calculation: from the period 1970 – 1994, deaths relative to road use fell by an average of 5.6% per year. From 1995 – 2002, the same figure fell by an average of 2.5% per year.

Maybe we're just reaching a stage where despite all the technical measures in place and safer cars, we can't address the basic problem of people driving into each other?

Draw your own conclusions... from the statistics. And remember there are lies, damned lines and statistics.

John did his research drawing on stats from: