CV19 - Cure Worse Than The Disease? (Vol 19)

CV19 - Cure Worse Than The Disease? (Vol 19)

Author
Discussion

jshell

11,512 posts

220 months

Friday 3rd May 2024
quotequote all
BigMon said:
jameswills said:
What’s odd though, going back to anecdotes, is that I didn’t know anyone who was ill or had “Covid” in 2020 until they started doing the mass testing. Then once the “vaccines” came along the statistics got all out of whack, and suddenly people were ill left right and centre. Not saying due to vaccines, but certainly I’d say something psychological was going on in the population.
The thing is though that almost for everyone on here that knows people dropping like flies left, right and centre there are those like me and Hants who haven't noticed any appreciable difference.

I don't know anyone with the litany of issues that have been reported by others when surely, if it was so widespread, I would do.

amongst almost 150 people, I don't know anyone with blood clots, turbo cancers, dropping dead of heart attacks, etc, etc, etc.

Does that honestly not strike you as odd? I have no skin in the game, if I could go back I would have stuck to my guns and not had had 2 juice jabs.
It may not be odd.

During 2020 & 2021 I saw few people that I knew suffering from issues with the vaccines, however a close friend in Manchester was reporting virtual carnage amongst family and friends. I remember thinking at the time that it may be geographic in its effects. On one side that could be batch related and we know from the massive US study that some batches caused disproportionately high deaths just after the jab. Or, tinfoil 'on', it could have been trialling various concentrations and concoctions.

What I have seen since then is 7 ex-colleagues, all apparently fit & healthy dying of fast acting cancers; leukaemia, bile duct etc and one simply didn't wake up on Boxing Day. None made 65.

andyA700

3,452 posts

52 months

Friday 3rd May 2024
quotequote all
jshell said:
BigMon said:
jameswills said:
What’s odd though, going back to anecdotes, is that I didn’t know anyone who was ill or had “Covid” in 2020 until they started doing the mass testing. Then once the “vaccines” came along the statistics got all out of whack, and suddenly people were ill left right and centre. Not saying due to vaccines, but certainly I’d say something psychological was going on in the population.
The thing is though that almost for everyone on here that knows people dropping like flies left, right and centre there are those like me and Hants who haven't noticed any appreciable difference.

I don't know anyone with the litany of issues that have been reported by others when surely, if it was so widespread, I would do.

amongst almost 150 people, I don't know anyone with blood clots, turbo cancers, dropping dead of heart attacks, etc, etc, etc.

Does that honestly not strike you as odd? I have no skin in the game, if I could go back I would have stuck to my guns and not had had 2 juice jabs.
It may not be odd.

During 2020 & 2021 I saw few people that I knew suffering from issues with the vaccines, however a close friend in Manchester was reporting virtual carnage amongst family and friends. I remember thinking at the time that it may be geographic in its effects. On one side that could be batch related and we know from the massive US study that some batches caused disproportionately high deaths just after the jab. Or, tinfoil 'on', it could have been trialling various concentrations and concoctions.

What I have seen since then is 7 ex-colleagues, all apparently fit & healthy dying of fast acting cancers; leukaemia, bile duct etc and one simply didn't wake up on Boxing Day. None made 65.
The first person to have the Covid vaccine in the UK outside trials was on 8th December 2020, so it is highly unlikely that you would have been aware of any problems with the vaccine in 2020.

jshell

11,512 posts

220 months

Friday 3rd May 2024
quotequote all
andyA700 said:
jshell said:
BigMon said:
jameswills said:
What’s odd though, going back to anecdotes, is that I didn’t know anyone who was ill or had “Covid” in 2020 until they started doing the mass testing. Then once the “vaccines” came along the statistics got all out of whack, and suddenly people were ill left right and centre. Not saying due to vaccines, but certainly I’d say something psychological was going on in the population.
The thing is though that almost for everyone on here that knows people dropping like flies left, right and centre there are those like me and Hants who haven't noticed any appreciable difference.

I don't know anyone with the litany of issues that have been reported by others when surely, if it was so widespread, I would do.

amongst almost 150 people, I don't know anyone with blood clots, turbo cancers, dropping dead of heart attacks, etc, etc, etc.

Does that honestly not strike you as odd? I have no skin in the game, if I could go back I would have stuck to my guns and not had had 2 juice jabs.
It may not be odd.

During 2020 & 2021 I saw few people that I knew suffering from issues with the vaccines, however a close friend in Manchester was reporting virtual carnage amongst family and friends. I remember thinking at the time that it may be geographic in its effects. On one side that could be batch related and we know from the massive US study that some batches caused disproportionately high deaths just after the jab. Or, tinfoil 'on', it could have been trialling various concentrations and concoctions.

What I have seen since then is 7 ex-colleagues, all apparently fit & healthy dying of fast acting cancers; leukaemia, bile duct etc and one simply didn't wake up on Boxing Day. None made 65.
The first person to have the Covid vaccine in the UK outside trials was on 8th December 2020, so it is highly unlikely that you would have been aware of any problems with the vaccine in 2020.
You're correct, my dates were mixed up!

SWoll

20,466 posts

273 months

Friday 3rd May 2024
quotequote all
B'stard Child said:
How many people die every day in the UK - around 1600

How old are most of the people that die every day in the UK - around 98%

Not wanting a fight over this but when the media focused on the number of daily deaths thro the pandemic a big problem I had with it was they never put it in context - the human race is not imortal - babies are born children grow up people age and people die.
Exactly this. There was a spike in 2020 for about 2 months (April-May) where the most frail in society were hit hard and bad decisions were made around treatment, but other than that very little difference to any normal year. 614k people died in the UK in 2020, which is lower than the total for 2018 (616k)

As the vaccine didn't get launched until the start of December 2020 when everything was running at the normal rate and then nothing really changed from that point onwards either, where is the evidence for the vaccine having any affect whatsoever?

It's a faith based argument that doesn't stand up to any level of statistical analysis as far as I can tell?


RSTurboPaul

12,019 posts

273 months

Friday 3rd May 2024
quotequote all
SWoll said:
B'stard Child said:
How many people die every day in the UK - around 1600

How old are most of the people that die every day in the UK - around 98%

Not wanting a fight over this but when the media focused on the number of daily deaths thro the pandemic a big problem I had with it was they never put it in context - the human race is not imortal - babies are born children grow up people age and people die.
Exactly this. There was a spike in 2020 for about 2 months (April-May) where the most frail in society were hit hard and bad decisions were made around treatment, but other than that very little difference to any normal year. 614k people died in the UK in 2020, which is lower than the total for 2018 (616k)

As the vaccine didn't get launched until the start of December 2020 when everything was running at the normal rate and then nothing really changed from that point onwards either, where is the evidence for the vaccine having any affect whatsoever?

It's a faith based argument that doesn't stand up to any level of statistical analysis as far as I can tell?

I think the assertion is that it is a small but continuous increase over historical baselines - let's say 5% or similar - such that there is an increase but it's not overtly obvious to the point that 'people' might start asking difficult questions. (The Tin Foil Hat wearers might propose the reasoning for this is that they were 'tweaking the mixes' to reduce high-ADR batches and get them to a level that was not so obvious tongue out )

The World in Data info I have seen referred to (and the Ethical Skeptic analyses) appears to be showing substantial percentage increases over some baselines, but as always, statistics can be flexibly applied, which makes discussions such as this take place, haha.

It would be interesting to undertake some analysis of total numbers / split by injection status / increases in younger deaths / increases in cancer / etc. if one had access to all the data and presumably a lot of time on one's hands!

Hants PHer

6,169 posts

126 months

Friday 3rd May 2024
quotequote all
SWoll said:
<edited for brevity>
As the vaccine didn't get launched until the start of December 2020 when everything was running at the normal rate and then nothing really changed from that point onwards either, where is the evidence for the vaccine having any affect whatsoever?

It's a faith based argument that doesn't stand up to any level of statistical analysis as far as I can tell?
This ONS study seems pretty convincing to me:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...

isaldiri

21,986 posts

183 months

Friday 3rd May 2024
quotequote all
SWoll said:
Exactly this. There was a spike in 2020 for about 2 months (April-May) where the most frail in society were hit hard and bad decisions were made around treatment, but other than that very little difference to any normal year. 614k people died in the UK in 2020, which is lower than the total for 2018 (616k)

As the vaccine didn't get launched until the start of December 2020 when everything was running at the normal rate and then nothing really changed from that point onwards either, where is the evidence for the vaccine having any affect whatsoever?
The last few months of 2020 were absolutely not normal in terms of mortality for that time.

And I guarantee you that 614k is considerably lower than the actual total UK deaths in 2020 as per above in your post.

cliffe_mafia

1,699 posts

253 months

Friday 3rd May 2024
quotequote all
Hants PHer said:
SWoll said:
<edited for brevity>
As the vaccine didn't get launched until the start of December 2020 when everything was running at the normal rate and then nothing really changed from that point onwards either, where is the evidence for the vaccine having any affect whatsoever?

It's a faith based argument that doesn't stand up to any level of statistical analysis as far as I can tell?
This ONS study seems pretty convincing to me:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...
"unvaccinated (those with no vaccination or who were vaccinated with a first dose less than 21 days ago)"

How many people got jabbed and then got covid anyway a few days later because the jab lowered their immunity?

Plus it's modelled data - it's most likely out by several Fergusons!

Also iirc the count of total unvaccinated was estimated at 10m when it was closer to 20m thus skewing the figures towards effectiveness.

Hants PHer

6,169 posts

126 months

Friday 3rd May 2024
quotequote all
cliffe_mafia said:
"unvaccinated (those with no vaccination or who were vaccinated with a first dose less than 21 days ago)"
Seems reasonable to me, since it takes a few days for the vaccine to become effective
How many people got jabbed and then got covid anyway a few days later because the jab lowered their immunity?
See above. The vaccines could not possibly have an instant effect. And anyway the effectiveness is clear in the 2+ doses groups
Plus it's modelled data - it's most likely out by several Fergusons!
It's not 'modelled', it is based on actual vaccination status of actual people from the actual 2021 Census. They used the Cox Proportional Hazard Model as a regression tool but that's not 'modelling' in the Ferguson sense
Also iirc the count of total unvaccinated was estimated at 10m when it was closer to 20m thus skewing the figures towards effectiveness.
How so? They simply looked at outcomes between the vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts. The number of unvaccinated was determined by comparing Census data to vaccination records therefore no 'estimate' was needed

cliffe_mafia

1,699 posts

253 months

Friday 3rd May 2024
quotequote all
Hants PHer said:
cliffe_mafia said:
"unvaccinated (those with no vaccination or who were vaccinated with a first dose less than 21 days ago)"
Seems reasonable to me, since it takes a few days for the vaccine to become effective
How many people got jabbed and then got covid anyway a few days later because the jab lowered their immunity?
See above. The vaccines could not possibly have an instant effect. And anyway the effectiveness is clear in the 2+ doses groups
Plus it's modelled data - it's most likely out by several Fergusons!
It's not 'modelled', it is based on actual vaccination status of actual people from the actual 2021 Census. They used the Cox Proportional Hazard Model as a regression tool but that's not 'modelling' in the Ferguson sense
Also iirc the count of total unvaccinated was estimated at 10m when it was closer to 20m thus skewing the figures towards effectiveness.
How so? They simply looked at outcomes between the vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts. The number of unvaccinated was determined by comparing Census data to vaccination records therefore no 'estimate' was needed
On the first two points - if someone takes the jab and therefore becomes more likely to contract covid it is reasonable to class them as unvaccinated? in what world can that be ok?

The original data is not modelled obviously but the count of unvaccinated has massive margins for error -

ONS use vaccination data from their public surveys and then multiply up to population size it's not from medical data.

https://fullfact.org/health/expose-england-populat...

The Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) latest estimate for 2020, puts the population at 55.6 million. This would leave about 12.3 million people who have not received a first dose, either because they are not eligible, or have otherwise not received a vaccine.

But the UKHSA uses data extracted from the National Immunisation Management Service (NIMS) which counts 62,724,319 people in England registered with the NHS. This would mean 19.5 million people haven’t received a first dose.

So the original base figures can't be trusted (23% versus 32% unvaccinated) and that's before the modelling is applied.




Rollin

6,234 posts

260 months

Friday 3rd May 2024
quotequote all
cliffe_mafia said:
Hants PHer said:
cliffe_mafia said:
"unvaccinated (those with no vaccination or who were vaccinated with a first dose less than 21 days ago)"
Seems reasonable to me, since it takes a few days for the vaccine to become effective
How many people got jabbed and then got covid anyway a few days later because the jab lowered their immunity?
See above. The vaccines could not possibly have an instant effect. And anyway the effectiveness is clear in the 2+ doses groups
Plus it's modelled data - it's most likely out by several Fergusons!
It's not 'modelled', it is based on actual vaccination status of actual people from the actual 2021 Census. They used the Cox Proportional Hazard Model as a regression tool but that's not 'modelling' in the Ferguson sense
Also iirc the count of total unvaccinated was estimated at 10m when it was closer to 20m thus skewing the figures towards effectiveness.
How so? They simply looked at outcomes between the vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts. The number of unvaccinated was determined by comparing Census data to vaccination records therefore no 'estimate' was needed
On the first two points - if someone takes the jab and therefore becomes more likely to contract covid it is reasonable to class them as unvaccinated? in what world can that be ok?

The original data is not modelled obviously but the count of unvaccinated has massive margins for error -

ONS use vaccination data from their public surveys and then multiply up to population size it's not from medical data.

https://fullfact.org/health/expose-england-populat...

The Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) latest estimate for 2020, puts the population at 55.6 million. This would leave about 12.3 million people who have not received a first dose, either because they are not eligible, or have otherwise not received a vaccine.

But the UKHSA uses data extracted from the National Immunisation Management Service (NIMS) which counts 62,724,319 people in England registered with the NHS. This would mean 19.5 million people haven’t received a first dose.

So the original base figures can't be trusted (23% versus 32% unvaccinated) and that's before the modelling is applied.
Says who?

Elysium

16,064 posts

202 months

Friday 3rd May 2024
quotequote all
SWoll said:
B'stard Child said:
How many people die every day in the UK - around 1600

How old are most of the people that die every day in the UK - around 98%

Not wanting a fight over this but when the media focused on the number of daily deaths thro the pandemic a big problem I had with it was they never put it in context - the human race is not imortal - babies are born children grow up people age and people die.
Exactly this. There was a spike in 2020 for about 2 months (April-May) where the most frail in society were hit hard and bad decisions were made around treatment, but other than that very little difference to any normal year. 614k people died in the UK in 2020, which is lower than the total for 2018 (616k)

As the vaccine didn't get launched until the start of December 2020 when everything was running at the normal rate and then nothing really changed from that point onwards either, where is the evidence for the vaccine having any affect whatsoever?

It's a faith based argument that doesn't stand up to any level of statistical analysis as far as I can tell?

I think your numbers are wrong. You state UK, but the graph is England and Wales and that is what the ONS records:

Total deaths in England and Wales in 2018 was 541,589

Total deaths in England and Wales in 2020 was 607,922

I spent a fair bit of time looking at the ONS numbers during the pandemic, creating my own version of their graphs to see what was happening.

This one looks at actual deaths from Jan 2020 to Dec 2022 compared to the 5 year average from 2015-2019. COVID deaths are shown in orange and non COVID deaths are shown in blue. You can see a number of things:

1. Deaths in the winter of 2019/20 were lower than average.
2. The first wave of the pandemic was massively unusual. Well above the 'upper bound' of 3 standard deviations from the mean.
3. The second wave was also significant, but less unusual given that it happened in winter
4. Deaths in the first half of 2022 were below average in the second half they were above average.

In summary, there can be no doubt that what happened in 2020 was significant.



When I shared this a couple of years ago I was asked what would happen if I looked back further, so I made this version for 20 years. What you see then is that Spring 2020 is still well beyond anything we had seen before and that winter 2020/21 was well above average, but not the worst winter for that timescale. However, the context for this is that, prior to 2020, mortality had steadily reduced over the preceding 20 years as healthcare improved.



You are obviously hoping to see evidence that vaccines reduces deaths in the data. You can see that the spikes associated with the first two waves never repeated. One thing you can also see is that most of the deaths happened before vaccination:



Of course millions of us went on to catch COVID after those vaccinations, but less of the oldies that caught it died. A lot of those infections happened in the exit wave at the end of 2021 and it's easy to see that the mortality that winter was very different to the one before.

Elysium

16,064 posts

202 months

Friday 3rd May 2024
quotequote all
isaldiri said:
SWoll said:
Exactly this. There was a spike in 2020 for about 2 months (April-May) where the most frail in society were hit hard and bad decisions were made around treatment, but other than that very little difference to any normal year. 614k people died in the UK in 2020, which is lower than the total for 2018 (616k)

As the vaccine didn't get launched until the start of December 2020 when everything was running at the normal rate and then nothing really changed from that point onwards either, where is the evidence for the vaccine having any affect whatsoever?
The last few months of 2020 were absolutely not normal in terms of mortality for that time.

And I guarantee you that 614k is considerably lower than the actual total UK deaths in 2020 as per above in your post.
There were 689,629 deaths in the UK in 2020:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...

I suspect SWoll has been mixing up the 'England and Wales' numbers with the 'UK' ones.


Elysium

16,064 posts

202 months

Friday 3rd May 2024
quotequote all
Apologies for spamming the thread, but this has to be shared:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/02/im-not...


Roderick Spode

3,623 posts

64 months

Friday 3rd May 2024
quotequote all
Elysium said:
Apologies for spamming the thread, but this has to be shared:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/02/im-not...

'Conspiracy theorist' was merely a lazy ad-hom thrown around by the cretinous and hard of thinking morons (see unironic title of the other thread) for anyone who dared to dissent or otherwise question "The Science" or the actions undertaken by governments, unquestioningly cheer-led on by the media and a bovine & imbecilic public. Heaven forfend that the cretinous might be shown as incorrect in any way, then the cognitive dissonance takes over and it's all "Fake Nooos". Don't forget, all Conspiracy Theorists are a bit thick. Except when they keep turning out to be correct, merely delayed six months.

r3g

3,750 posts

39 months

Friday 3rd May 2024
quotequote all
Roderick Spode said:
'Conspiracy theorist' was merely a lazy ad-hom thrown around by the cretinous and hard of thinking morons (see unironic title of the other thread) for anyone who dared to dissent or otherwise question "The Science" or the actions undertaken by governments, unquestioningly cheer-led on by the media and a bovine & imbecilic public. Heaven forfend that the cretinous might be shown as incorrect in any way, then the cognitive dissonance takes over and it's all "Fake Nooos". Don't forget, all Conspiracy Theorists are a bit thick. Except when they keep turning out to be correct, merely delayed six months.
That thread is an endless source of chuckles and irony. This one earlier today for example :

Castrol for a knave said:
Some people, however bright, just seem to fail to connect the dots
wobble

jameswills

3,583 posts

58 months

Friday 3rd May 2024
quotequote all
SWoll said:
B'stard Child said:
How many people die every day in the UK - around 1600

How old are most of the people that die every day in the UK - around 98%

Not wanting a fight over this but when the media focused on the number of daily deaths thro the pandemic a big problem I had with it was they never put it in context - the human race is not imortal - babies are born children grow up people age and people die.
Exactly this. There was a spike in 2020 for about 2 months (April-May) where the most frail in society were hit hard and bad decisions were made around treatment, but other than that very little difference to any normal year. 614k people died in the UK in 2020, which is lower than the total for 2018 (616k)

As the vaccine didn't get launched until the start of December 2020 when everything was running at the normal rate and then nothing really changed from that point onwards either, where is the evidence for the vaccine having any affect whatsoever?

It's a faith based argument that doesn't stand up to any level of statistical analysis as far as I can tell?

There is zero evidence it did anything. It’s baffling how anyone can peddle the notion otherwise.

jameswills

3,583 posts

58 months

Friday 3rd May 2024
quotequote all
Elysium said:
I think your numbers are wrong. You state UK, but the graph is England and Wales and that is what the ONS records:

Total deaths in England and Wales in 2018 was 541,589

Total deaths in England and Wales in 2020 was 607,922

I spent a fair bit of time looking at the ONS numbers during the pandemic, creating my own version of their graphs to see what was happening.

This one looks at actual deaths from Jan 2020 to Dec 2022 compared to the 5 year average from 2015-2019. COVID deaths are shown in orange and non COVID deaths are shown in blue. You can see a number of things:

1. Deaths in the winter of 2019/20 were lower than average.
2. The first wave of the pandemic was massively unusual. Well above the 'upper bound' of 3 standard deviations from the mean.
3. The second wave was also significant, but less unusual given that it happened in winter
4. Deaths in the first half of 2022 were below average in the second half they were above average.

In summary, there can be no doubt that what happened in 2020 was significant.



When I shared this a couple of years ago I was asked what would happen if I looked back further, so I made this version for 20 years. What you see then is that Spring 2020 is still well beyond anything we had seen before and that winter 2020/21 was well above average, but not the worst winter for that timescale. However, the context for this is that, prior to 2020, mortality had steadily reduced over the preceding 20 years as healthcare improved.



You are obviously hoping to see evidence that vaccines reduces deaths in the data. You can see that the spikes associated with the first two waves never repeated. One thing you can also see is that most of the deaths happened before vaccination:



Of course millions of us went on to catch COVID after those vaccinations, but less of the oldies that caught it died. A lot of those infections happened in the exit wave at the end of 2021 and it's easy to see that the mortality that winter was very different to the one before.
Go look up Norman Fenton and his study on this, the statistics surrounding unvaccinated vs vaccinated is totally absurd.

Elysium

16,064 posts

202 months

Friday 3rd May 2024
quotequote all
jameswills said:
Go look up Norman Fenton and his study on this, the statistics surrounding unvaccinated vs vaccinated is totally absurd.
I followed Fenton on Twitter throughout the pandemic and I think that last graph was actually produced to check one of his arguments.

The majority of deaths happened before anyone was vaccinated. So if you simply compare total vaccinated and unvaccinated deaths you get a very distorted picture.

It’s why the 96% lower ASMR mentioned here is factually correct but meaningless:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...






Edited by Elysium on Friday 3rd May 20:49

jameswills

3,583 posts

58 months

Friday 3rd May 2024
quotequote all
Elysium said:
I followed Fenton on Twitter throughout the pandemic and I think that last graph was actually produced to check one of his arguments.

The majority of deaths happened before anyone was vaccinated. So if you simply compare total vaccinated and unvaccinated deaths you get a very distorted picture.

It’s why the 96% lower ASMR mentioned here is factually correct but meaningless:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...






Edited by Elysium on Friday 3rd May 20:49
Right, so why are you pushing any narrative that supports the “vaccine”? There is no data at all that supports it