"Safe" investment, maybe gold?

"Safe" investment, maybe gold?

Author
Discussion

The Moose

22,874 posts

210 months

Thursday 26th March 2020
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Novexx said:
& will always be worth something
This supposition is what I have a problem with when it comes to gold, silver, diamonds or other similar physical assets.

You are essentially talking about the potential for the entire collapse of our way of life. If you really think that's likely and what you're planning for, then gold is a complete waste of time. You should be buying seeds, freeze-dried foods, water purification tablets and filtration, stuff which when our society collapses, will be the most valuable. If that were to happen, a bit of yellow metal will have zero realistic value.

In the UK, you're essentially playing the forex market as much as you're playing the gold market. If you are concerned about this, just buy dollars!

The single biggest jump in gold price (in GBP) in the last 10 years was due to the Brexit vote:

jshell

11,061 posts

206 months

Thursday 26th March 2020
quotequote all
The Moose said:
This supposition is what I have a problem with when it comes to gold, silver, diamonds or other similar physical assets.

You are essentially talking about the potential for the entire collapse of our way of life. If you really think that's likely and what you're planning for, then gold is a complete waste of time. You should be buying seeds, freeze-dried foods, water purification tablets and filtration, stuff which when our society collapses, will be the most valuable. If that were to happen, a bit of yellow metal will have zero realistic value.
I think you've jumped a stage in that summation. There would be a phase, perhaps temporary, where gold would be traded and hoarded. If it becomes worthless, then everyone's fked anyway!

bitchstewie

51,594 posts

211 months

Thursday 26th March 2020
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How are you going to get to your gold?

jshell

11,061 posts

206 months

Thursday 26th March 2020
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bhstewie said:
How are you going to get to your gold?
Well, mine is stored with very easy reach...

bitchstewie

51,594 posts

211 months

Thursday 26th March 2020
quotequote all
jshell said:
bhstewie said:
How are you going to get to your gold?
Well, mine is stored with very easy reach...
Yes it was more about the practicalities.

Are people really hoarding gold in their own homes in small enough bars to be able to use "on demand"?

Can't help but think that if we get to that point a shotgun and shovel are probably more use

The Moose

22,874 posts

210 months

Thursday 26th March 2020
quotequote all
jshell said:
The Moose said:
This supposition is what I have a problem with when it comes to gold, silver, diamonds or other similar physical assets.

You are essentially talking about the potential for the entire collapse of our way of life. If you really think that's likely and what you're planning for, then gold is a complete waste of time. You should be buying seeds, freeze-dried foods, water purification tablets and filtration, stuff which when our society collapses, will be the most valuable. If that were to happen, a bit of yellow metal will have zero realistic value.
I think you've jumped a stage in that summation. There would be a phase, perhaps temporary, where gold would be traded and hoarded. If it becomes worthless, then everyone's fked anyway!
I was working off the basis in the OP that ‘banks and GBP start failing’. That would essentially be the end of the current way of life - both within the UK and further afield.

The Moose

22,874 posts

210 months

Thursday 26th March 2020
quotequote all
bhstewie said:
jshell said:
bhstewie said:
How are you going to get to your gold?
Well, mine is stored with very easy reach...
Yes it was more about the practicalities.

Are people really hoarding gold in their own homes in small enough bars to be able to use "on demand"?

Can't help but think that if we get to that point a shotgun and shovel are probably more use
I have silver, gold and diamonds within relatively easy reach. But only because it's a bit of fun...and I adore diamonds!

jshell

11,061 posts

206 months

Thursday 26th March 2020
quotequote all
The Moose said:
bhstewie said:
jshell said:
bhstewie said:
How are you going to get to your gold?
Well, mine is stored with very easy reach...
Yes it was more about the practicalities.

Are people really hoarding gold in their own homes in small enough bars to be able to use "on demand"?

Can't help but think that if we get to that point a shotgun and shovel are probably more use
I have silver, gold and diamonds within relatively easy reach. But only because it's a bit of fun...and I adore diamonds!
If I'm buying something, I want it, I don't want an 'option' on it. Anyway, gold coins are fun to collect too. And, they are stored right beside the ammunition!

NapierDeltic

304 posts

53 months

Thursday 26th March 2020
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Vergis said:
Gold is the way to go
Surely you always need people to believe that it is valuable for it to hold any value. Its relative scarcity, pretty colour and use in electronic circuits are surely its only saving graces?

'Economy is taking a bath, so I'm buying up shiny metal', just doesn't seem that logical to me.

DoubleSix

11,727 posts

177 months

Thursday 26th March 2020
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egomeister said:
DoubleSix said:
egomeister said:
Behemoth said:
Gold refineries are shutting shop. They can't meet retail demand. That's where I'd start to wonder if paper gold (what an institution somewhere says you own on a spreadsheet) is the same as actually owning the real metal.
There's paper gold and there's paper gold. Some are physcially backed, some merely a claim on the future value of gold. Ultimately the only way to be sure you own gold, is by owning gold.
I think if one is too worrisome to hold a physically-backed ETC as offered by global IMs such BlackRock then it's time to pack up and leave for orbit.
You are quite right. I can't remember the last time the ongoing viability of major financial institutions was ever in doubt.
Simplistic assessment of complex issues.

There’s a gulf of difference in default risk between a CDO and an ETC.. you may wish to read up on the role of the custodian vs arranger vs administrator where these products are concerned.

Edited by DoubleSix on Thursday 26th March 16:43

jshell

11,061 posts

206 months

Thursday 26th March 2020
quotequote all
When these boys are buying it by the tonne, then there's more than a little belief in it: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-russian-and-... Of course, buy doing a 'Gordon Brown' they could completely devalue it, but that's not in their interests either.

DoubleSix

11,727 posts

177 months

Thursday 26th March 2020
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Central banks tend to buy by the tonne

jshell

11,061 posts

206 months

Thursday 26th March 2020
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DoubleSix said:
Central banks tend to buy by the tonne
If it has no value and not linked to currencies, why would they buy it at all?

DoubleSix

11,727 posts

177 months

Thursday 26th March 2020
quotequote all
jshell said:
DoubleSix said:
Central banks tend to buy by the tonne
If it has no value and not linked to currencies, why would they buy it at all?
If you’re going to attempt a Strawman at least put some effort in.

jshell

11,061 posts

206 months

Thursday 26th March 2020
quotequote all
DoubleSix said:
jshell said:
DoubleSix said:
Central banks tend to buy by the tonne
If it has no value and not linked to currencies, why would they buy it at all?
If you’re going to attempt a Strawman at least put some effort in.
Actually, it was a genuine question. If it has no value outside of industrial and jewellery use or linked to a currency, then why would banks hold it? That's not a Strawman.

egomeister

6,714 posts

264 months

Thursday 26th March 2020
quotequote all
DoubleSix said:
Simplistic assessment of complex issues.

There’s a gulf of difference in default risk between a CDO and an ETC.. you may wish to read up on the role of the custodian vs arranger vs administrator where these products are concerned.

Edited by DoubleSix on Thursday 26th March 16:43
I don't think there are many paper products that allow a retail customer to redeem physical.

At the end of the day it depends on why you buy into it. If you just want to play the price, then there is little downside in the paper. Personally, I view it as insurance against disaster rather than investment, with an added bonus of performing like an investment negatively correlated to most assets in times of stress. For my purposes, the closer to having it in your own hands the better.

jshell

11,061 posts

206 months

Thursday 26th March 2020
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Just checked the online gold retailers and Holy st! People are scooping it up. I buy the Royal Mint Queen's Beasts 1oz bullion coins and bought a bunch of Ltd Edition Unicorns for £970 last year. Here's where they are today: https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/gifts/queens-beast...

Benbay001

5,801 posts

158 months

Thursday 26th March 2020
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The end is nigh!

Hold on whilst i just stuff my bold bars into the back of my Volvo in the hope some gullible sucker swaps them for a can of baked beans.

Mr Whippy

29,093 posts

242 months

Thursday 26th March 2020
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Just buy UK legal tender coins direct from Royal Mint as it’s less likely you’ll buy a tungsten core’d lump of gold hehe

jshell

11,061 posts

206 months

Friday 27th March 2020
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Mr Whippy said:
Just buy UK legal tender coins direct from Royal Mint as it’s less likely you’ll buy a tungsten core’d lump of gold hehe
Problem is the Royal Mint are more expensive for their own products than good dealers that re-sell. Very strange.