Crypto Currency Thread (Vol.2)
Discussion
Seventyseven7 said:
3 month timeframe, nice investment.
Not if you bought a month ago it's not. You've lost nearly 20% and got 2 months before you intend to cash out. Or are you arbitrarily picking entry and exit points to suit yourself??
As I've said repeatedly, volatility is not an abstract concept, it's measurable and real and not what people want from their investment.
But people do like it. I like it. If you dollar cost average into a bitcoin account, by for example transferring business savings across, you will look back on your past several years of accumulation and think 'Holy s
t that was a good idea'. You are the one picking entry and exit points 
t that was a good idea'. You are the one picking entry and exit points Blown2CV said:
Seventyseven7 said:
Condi said:
The excellent store of value has lost 18% in less than a month.
Don't worry, I'm sure not a single person has lost money though.
3 month timeframe, nice investment. Don't worry, I'm sure not a single person has lost money though.
What is it on the 1 year, or 3 year or 5 year?
Condi let’s see how much you’ve been making from your investment portfolio since you’ve been posting in this thread?
I’ve taken ‘cashed out’ over 350k in 3 years. Be interested in how your investments are doing?
Edited by Seventyseven7 on Friday 3rd May 19:24
Edited by Seventyseven7 on Friday 3rd May 19:25
Condi said:
Seventyseven7 said:
3 month timeframe, nice investment.
Not if you bought a month ago it's not. You've lost nearly 20% and got 2 months before you intend to cash out. Or are you arbitrarily picking entry and exit points to suit yourself??
As I've said repeatedly, volatility is not an abstract concept, it's measurable and real and not what people want from their investment.
This is a finance forum and I’m interested in making money from investments (whatever the asset) and discussing it.
It’s unrealistic to expect guaranteed positive returns on investments within a month. If you're confident about market movements, take a position—short if you believe it will fall, and long if you expect a rise. Since this is a finance forum, let's engage in some real speculation with our money, rather than just telling everyone you have the answers to everything.
Let’s make some money?
I thought the argument was about store of value, ie volatility as that is what matters for the average person if it's every going to be a currency?
Or are the goalposts moving again to it being a long term investment and only any use if you HODL for years, in which case calling it crypto currency is a bit misleading, as is any discussion about adoption, hash rate, and security. It's all irrelevant if it's just a long term investment.
A currency is supposed to be stable, predictable, reassuring. Something which moves unpredictably (up or down) is no good. The average person in the street wants to know in a week's time what their Bitcoin will be worth. Even if it goes up, that is no use, as you can have Bitcoin debt, so you'd end up owing much more than expected.
Too funny. It's a currency and hash rate and adoption are super important, then its a long term investment, then it's a micropayment solution, then it's for moving money away from authoritative regimes, or sending money to Nigerians who don't have bank accounts. Maybe its simply non of those, but nothing more than a gambling tool. It doesn't generate any return, for each person who makes money, someone else loses. Worse than that, by the time gas fees have been paid the system is actually leeching money to pay for the power needed to run it....
Or are the goalposts moving again to it being a long term investment and only any use if you HODL for years, in which case calling it crypto currency is a bit misleading, as is any discussion about adoption, hash rate, and security. It's all irrelevant if it's just a long term investment.
A currency is supposed to be stable, predictable, reassuring. Something which moves unpredictably (up or down) is no good. The average person in the street wants to know in a week's time what their Bitcoin will be worth. Even if it goes up, that is no use, as you can have Bitcoin debt, so you'd end up owing much more than expected.
Too funny. It's a currency and hash rate and adoption are super important, then its a long term investment, then it's a micropayment solution, then it's for moving money away from authoritative regimes, or sending money to Nigerians who don't have bank accounts. Maybe its simply non of those, but nothing more than a gambling tool. It doesn't generate any return, for each person who makes money, someone else loses. Worse than that, by the time gas fees have been paid the system is actually leeching money to pay for the power needed to run it....
Edited by Condi on Friday 3rd May 20:11
Condi said:
I thought the argument was about store of value, ie volatility as that is what matters for the average person if it's every going to be a currency?
Or are the goalposts moving again to it being a long term investment and only any use if you HODL for years, in which case calling it crypto currency is a bit misleading, as is any discussion about adoption, hash rate, and security. It's all irrelevant if it's just a long term investment.
I’m not sure it’s going to be a currency, nor do I really care. My only interest is making a return on the money I invest in it (in GBP) to then buy other assets. I’m not here to argue the value of Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, I’m not a maxi, but am happy to enjoy the returns when they happen. Or are the goalposts moving again to it being a long term investment and only any use if you HODL for years, in which case calling it crypto currency is a bit misleading, as is any discussion about adoption, hash rate, and security. It's all irrelevant if it's just a long term investment.
As I said, if you're confident about market movements, take a position—short if you believe it will fall, and long if you expect a rise. What positions are you currently holding?
Seventyseven7 said:
I’m not sure it’s going to be a currency, nor do I really care. My only interest is making a return on the money I invest in it (in GBP) to then buy other assets. I’m not here to argue the value of Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, I’m not a maxi, but am happy to enjoy the returns when they happen.
As I said, if you're confident about market movements, take a position—short if you believe it will fall, and long if you expect a rise. What positions are you currently holding?
I'm very slightly long, but have far more interest into why it moves and what it's actually for than any returns. It amuses and intrigues me people are willing to invest in an entirely unregulated, unpredictable, and frankly impossible to analyse market, especially when nobody can actually tell me what it's used for, simply because they assume some greater fool will pay more for it later on. At least at the casino you understand the odds, have pretty croupiers, free drinks and a laugh with the other people at the table. As I said, if you're confident about market movements, take a position—short if you believe it will fall, and long if you expect a rise. What positions are you currently holding?
And, as I say, crypto is a zero sum game. Well done for making money, but please don't assume that is due to anything other than luck and don't think that money has come from anywhere other than the pockets of other buyers.
Condi said:
Seventyseven7 said:
I’m not sure it’s going to be a currency, nor do I really care. My only interest is making a return on the money I invest in it (in GBP) to then buy other assets. I’m not here to argue the value of Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, I’m not a maxi, but am happy to enjoy the returns when they happen.
As I said, if you're confident about market movements, take a position—short if you believe it will fall, and long if you expect a rise. What positions are you currently holding?
I'm very slightly long, but have far more interest into why it moves and what it's actually for than any returns. It amuses and intrigues me people are willing to invest in an entirely unregulated, unpredictable, and frankly impossible to analyse market, especially when nobody can actually tell me what it's used for, simply because they assume some greater fool will pay more for it later on. At least at the casino you understand the odds, have pretty croupiers, free drinks and a laugh with the other people at the table. As I said, if you're confident about market movements, take a position—short if you believe it will fall, and long if you expect a rise. What positions are you currently holding?
And, as I say, crypto is a zero sum game. Well done for making money, but please don't assume that is due to anything other than luck and don't think that money has come from anywhere other than the pockets of other buyers.
Lucky, maybe, maybe not.
Other peoples pockets, yes. Happy to continue doing so as well.
Seventyseven7 said:
You’ve articulated your point much better there, than your usual posts of trying to force your opinion on people. Being unpredictable can be argued, I would certainly argue the case that a lot of moves can be predicted, hence some of the same people are consistently making money.
Lucky, maybe, maybe not.
Other peoples pockets, yes. Happy to continue doing so as well.
I never try and "force my opinions on people" but present an argument or a reason as to why I hold the point of view I do and why I think that ultimately this whole thing is irrational. It's also fun to wind people up, and provide some alternative thought than the groupthink/circle jerk of everyone talking about how it's going up and will take over the world. Lucky, maybe, maybe not.
Other peoples pockets, yes. Happy to continue doing so as well.
Honestly, I've love someone to make a really good argument as to what this is for, or why it really is the future, but every argument falls flat with a little critical thinking or appreciation of banking/finance and realpolitik.
Seventyseven7 said:
Condi said:
I thought the argument was about store of value, ie volatility as that is what matters for the average person if it's every going to be a currency?
Or are the goalposts moving again to it being a long term investment and only any use if you HODL for years, in which case calling it crypto currency is a bit misleading, as is any discussion about adoption, hash rate, and security. It's all irrelevant if it's just a long term investment.
You (condi) seem to be one of the people that continually refers to BTC as crypto currency - others have suggested that it would be more correct to use the term 'asset'. Which is how it's now defined by the SEC - hence the ETF's that were approved.Or are the goalposts moving again to it being a long term investment and only any use if you HODL for years, in which case calling it crypto currency is a bit misleading, as is any discussion about adoption, hash rate, and security. It's all irrelevant if it's just a long term investment.
as to what it does, or doesn't do....
that's open to interpretation and debate even among those who invest or trade it.
Why not think bout it in an abstract way - like art:
21million pieces created by 'whomever' that get released to the market on a schedule....and before you argue that art has a purpose, i'd wager that many buy rare pieces for the investment not the supposed beauty of something that they don't even look at.
as to picking holes in a 18% drawdown over x weeks.....so bloody what! that's a trading mentality, not an investment one! there's plenty of companies that were hit in '22 that haven't recovered yet to their former share price levels.
No idea how much you actually take in, or whether you just rely on headlines from minstream FUD machines, but do you erally think that entities/people are buying huge tranches of 500+btc a week for fun? or maybe, just maybe if they've just shelled out 1/2 a Billion - they might just have a bit of an idea of how scarce this ASSET is becoming.
Let's see if the supposed supply crunch comes over the next 6mths or so and what happens then, when more/more banks, pension funds etc start adding a bit to their portfolios.
Condi said:
And, as I say, crypto is a zero sum game. Well done for making money, but please don't assume that is due to anything other than luck and don't think that money has come from anywhere other than the pockets of other buyers.
There are plenty of people making money out of crypto who would be very offended at your view that it’s only possible to do so out of dumb luck. I happen to be one of them but you’re entitled to your view. I don’t necessarily agree that money I’ve made from crypto has come exclusively from the pockets of other crypto buyers.
People buy many assets to express many different views, over different time horizons. It’s what makes a market. I have a long term holding in BTC as part of a diversified portfolio. Its stored (pretty) securely, for free, and offers me tax free gains (and losses).
kestonian said:
I don’t necessarily agree that money I’ve made from crypto has come exclusively from the pockets of other crypto buyers.
Surely that’s the only place it can come from…?!It’s not like a share or a bond, providing dividends or interest, and so has some “intrinsic” value.
Like the comments about making money from volatility earlier - surely every £ profit made by someone has to be balanced by someone else taking a corresponding “hit”. It’s a “zero sum game” is it not?
Or am I missing something?
Condi said:
The excellent store of value has lost 18% in less than a month.
Don't worry, I'm sure not a single person has lost money though.
Don't worry, I'm sure not a single person has lost money though.
I concede
I have f
ked up my investmentsYou were right all along
Seriously: you need to time your posts and the timeframes you select just right to prove your point.
I can show you my 1h, 1d, 1w, 1m, 3m and 1y returns to prove you are wrong.
But hey, carry on...
ERIKM400 said:
Seriously: you need to time your posts and the timeframes you select just right to prove your point.
I can show you my 1h, 1d, 1w, 1m, 3m and 1y returns to prove you are wrong.
But hey, carry on...
You're not proving anything. The point you are making is entirely separate to the one I am making, either you don't understand that or are ignoring it because it doesn't fit your narrative. I can show you my 1h, 1d, 1w, 1m, 3m and 1y returns to prove you are wrong.
But hey, carry on...
Great, you've made money. Congratulations.
However, it's still a terrible store of value and is too volatile to be of any use as it was originally intended, ie as a currency or payment method.
Maybe you (or anyone else) could answer a very simple question - What use does Bitcoin or any other crypto have? Dimots will tell you it's the worlds future reserve currency. You may say an investment. Someone else may say it's a gambling asset. Morgan Stanley would might say it's simply a product they can charge huge fees for customers to access.
kestonian said:
I don’t necessarily agree that money I’ve made from crypto has come exclusively from the pockets of other crypto buyers.
Where else could it have come from? Btc generates no return on investment, it does no work, it adds no value. If you also consider that miners need to pay electricity companies for the system to work then it needs more FIAT money going in than FIAT money coming out. For every person who makes money someone else must lose slightly more. Surely powerfully built directors on PH can understand that? funinhounslow said:
Surely that’s the only place it can come from…?!
It’s not like a share or a bond, providing dividends or interest, and so has some “intrinsic” value.
Like the comments about making money from volatility earlier - surely every £ profit made by someone has to be balanced by someone else taking a corresponding “hit”. It’s a “zero sum game” is it not?
Or am I missing something?
Intrinsic value is just an opinion and they vary wildly. Not all bonds produce a coupon, not all shares produce a dividend. What’s the intrinic value of one share of Tesla? What’s the dividend it’s returned? What utility has it provided?It’s not like a share or a bond, providing dividends or interest, and so has some “intrinsic” value.
Like the comments about making money from volatility earlier - surely every £ profit made by someone has to be balanced by someone else taking a corresponding “hit”. It’s a “zero sum game” is it not?
Or am I missing something?
If I buy one bitcoin from a miner, the miner has swapped electricity and hardware costs for USD. I then sell it someone who uses it to buy a pizza from a guy who flips it back to USD at slightly below market because they don’t like the volatility of the transaction currency who then takes a spread selling it to the next guy who wants to send currency across the world it’s not just a bunch of crypto idiots sitting in their underpants making each other richer or poorer.
Crypto has many uses, one of them is as a store of value, another is as a speculative instrument. Same as houses.
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