AML - Stock Market Listing
Discussion
LooneyTunes said:
Minglar said:
Did anyone seriously expect strong numbers today? As many have commented here previously, why would anyone buy a car which is coming towards the end of its production run unless there is a very attractive incentive to do so. To my mind that means new Vantage, perhaps unsold stock DB11, and both DBX variants (three if you include the hybrid version sold in China). So that may explain the sharp drop in SUV numbers. The slight rise in Sports/GT is probably a result of DB12. It’s a shame the numbers are not broken down by specific model type rather than lumped together and recorded as one. So I think we have to take all of this in to context a little for this quarter. I have no idea where AML will be as a business this time next year, but as I’ve said before imho I think the current range of cars is good enough, and will continue to improve. Will there be a sufficient number of buyers across the globe in the current economic climate? Maybe, maybe not, I don’t know. But it will be interesting to see how the appetite shapes up when new new Vantage/Roadster, DB12/Volante, updated DBX707, and the new V12 models announced today, can all contribute to the numbers. Don’t get me wrong. I’m not defending LS. His pricing model means it is unlikely I will buy another new Aston Martin, as the cost to change now makes no economic sense at all, even if I can afford it. Many others on here probably feel the same and are happy with the cars they currently own. But as a relatively long term loyal customer I want the company to survive, although it will probably mean a takeover at some point. The financials are not sustainable unless there is yet another cash injection or RI. I have refrained from posting anything in the LSE forum as there really is no point. There is clearly vested interest in there from one particular poster to continually talk the SP down and see this company fail, for whatever reason. I guess it’s no coincidence that his/her/their number of posts has dramatically increased over the last few days, and of course today. 
BRM.
I think I'm broadly in the same place as you with much of that, but the numbers game is an interesting one.BRM.
It's easy to spin low numbers:
1) New model arriving soon - buyers waiting
2) New model just launched - ramping up!
3) New model maturing - competition / expecting new model soon
What is interesting to me is the Q1 variance in wholesale numbers 2021 - 2022 - 2023 - 2024 (1353 - 1168 - 1269 - 945).
Put the debt figure (GBPm) against those dates and it runs 722.9 - 956.8 - 868.1 - 1,044.2
Yes, it's only one specific quarter, but in the space of a few years debt has risen significantly whilst that quarter's volumes have decreased.
Revenue and ASPs for Q1 2021, Q1 2022, Q1 2023, and Q1 2024 as follows (if my calculations are correct). It’s not hard to see why legacy customers are being priced out. But will there be enough new ones?
224,000,000 - 165,558
233,000,000 - 199,486
295,900,000 - 233,175
267,700,000 - 283,280
Personally I think whole year numbers matter more than one quarter, but the trend is clear. BRM.
You have to remember that the specials may will distort the ASPs when volumes (of "regular" cars) are quite low.
It remains my view that AML are really going to struggle with any sort of equity based raise (whether new issuances or rights). Even those investors who might have historically been sold on a dream will be looking at the trends and need significant incentives to invest.
Those who bought recently expecting to flip might also think twice.
I've said it before, but AML's marketing to legacy customers is (if my experience is anything to go by) woeful in comparison to other brands and it's a mistake to leave much of it in the hands of dealers, especially when some of the dealers seem tempted to play a very short-sighted game.
It remains my view that AML are really going to struggle with any sort of equity based raise (whether new issuances or rights). Even those investors who might have historically been sold on a dream will be looking at the trends and need significant incentives to invest.
Minglar said:
It’s not hard to see why legacy customers are being priced out. But will there be enough new ones?
With interest rates sustained at a higher level than many consumers have grown accustomed to, if ASPs on new models are actually rising significantly, the cost of buying or financing a toy is more expensive than it was previously.Those who bought recently expecting to flip might also think twice.
I've said it before, but AML's marketing to legacy customers is (if my experience is anything to go by) woeful in comparison to other brands and it's a mistake to leave much of it in the hands of dealers, especially when some of the dealers seem tempted to play a very short-sighted game.
Minglar said:
Did anyone seriously expect strong numbers today? As many have commented here previously, why would anyone buy a car which is coming towards the end of its production run unless there is a very attractive incentive to do so.
...snip...
I was in a dealer last week and they had a brand new outgoing Vantage Roadster in "resale-friendly" black/black. £144k reduced to £122k. Given the new one is going to be more like £200k, it looked tempting....snip...
The irony is that I think their range is excellent at the moment. They've made the DB12 and the Vantage much more attractive inside and out. The DBX is a stonking thing and is getting the refreshed interior. They have a new V12 Vanquish in the wings (announcing the V12 in the last day or so, saying it would "vanquish" the road or some such).
When I was at HWM in April, there were lots of DB12s off to new owners.
They should do very well in the coming quarter but, regardless, the debt load is unsustainable.
When I was at HWM in April, there were lots of DB12s off to new owners.
They should do very well in the coming quarter but, regardless, the debt load is unsustainable.
silentbrown said:
I believe the new TVR Griffith is "ultra-exclusive"?
And that single car was so extremely ultra-exclusive, that the TVR employees (having no known record of even building any cars) had it assembled secretly by a firm who could do such things. The begining of a dream, by a bunch of dreamers, that gradually faded into silence.
Minglar said:
Did anyone seriously expect strong numbers today? As many have commented here previously, why would anyone buy a car which is coming towards the end of its production run unless there is a very attractive incentive to do so. To my mind that means new Vantage, perhaps unsold stock DB11, and both DBX variants (three if you include the hybrid version sold in China). So that may explain the sharp drop in SUV numbers. The slight rise in Sports/GT is probably a result of DB12. It’s a shame the numbers are not broken down by specific model type rather than lumped together and recorded as one. So I think we have to take all of this in to context a little for this quarter. I have no idea where AML will be as a business this time next year, but as I’ve said before imho I think the current range of cars is good enough, and will continue to improve. Will there be a sufficient number of buyers across the globe in the current economic climate? Maybe, maybe not, I don’t know. But it will be interesting to see how the appetite shapes up when new new Vantage/Roadster, DB12/Volante, updated DBX707, and the new V12 models announced today, can all contribute to the numbers. Don’t get me wrong. I’m not defending LS. His pricing model means it is unlikely I will buy another new Aston Martin, as the cost to change now makes no economic sense at all, even if I can afford it. Many others on here probably feel the same and are happy with the cars they currently own. But as a relatively long term loyal customer I want the company to survive, although it will probably mean a takeover at some point. The financials are not sustainable unless there is yet another cash injection or RI. I have refrained from posting anything in the LSE forum as there really is no point. There is clearly vested interest in there from one particular poster to continually talk the SP down and see this company fail, for whatever reason. I guess it’s no coincidence that his/her/their number of posts has dramatically increased over the last few days, and of course today.
BRM.
BRM.
Good points made today on this topic, by every poster.
We now have a few 'wait and sees', amongst which are;
Prospective buyers who knew about the expected model changes.
SUV sales significantly down.
Wonder how many might simply have delayed their purchases, or did some drift away and were lost to competitors instead of waiting?
As you state, the revised cars are all much more attractive now to an increased number of prospective customers, but will the much higher list prices and option prices be an off putting factor?
LS said a long time ago, that the debt is something that must be dealt with. On two occasions, the debt has been partly paid off early, but in the recent refinancing, the total has increased again.
Did you listen to the presentation this morning?
L.S. absent. I did not hear the start of the presentation, but perhaps a reason was given for him not being present.
There was a cracking question from one analyst.
When the new CEO begins his role, will Lawrence Stroll relinquish his Executive Chairman position, so that the CEO can operate in an unhindered manner?
Doug Lafferty managed not to laugh, but said that is something he cannot answer, but he looks forward to working with the new CEO.
Jon39 said:
There was a cracking question from one analyst.
When the new CEO begins his role, will Lawrence Stroll relinquish his Executive Chairman position, so that the CEO can operate in an unhindered manner?
Doug Lafferty managed not to laugh, but said that is something he cannot answer, but he looks forward to working with the new CEO.
lolWhen the new CEO begins his role, will Lawrence Stroll relinquish his Executive Chairman position, so that the CEO can operate in an unhindered manner?
Doug Lafferty managed not to laugh, but said that is something he cannot answer, but he looks forward to working with the new CEO.
Buy that guy a pint!
Minglar said:
Did anyone seriously expect strong numbers today? As many have commented here previously, why would anyone buy a car which is coming towards the end of its production run unless there is a very attractive incentive to do so. To my mind that means new Vantage, perhaps unsold stock DB11, and both DBX variants (three if you include the hybrid version sold in China). So that may explain the sharp drop in SUV numbers. The slight rise in Sports/GT is probably a result of DB12. It’s a shame the numbers are not broken down by specific model type rather than lumped together and recorded as one. So I think we have to take all of this in to context a little for this quarter. I have no idea where AML will be as a business this time next year, but as I’ve said before imho I think the current range of cars is good enough, and will continue to improve. Will there be a sufficient number of buyers across the globe in the current economic climate? Maybe, maybe not, I don’t know. But it will be interesting to see how the appetite shapes up when new new Vantage/Roadster, DB12/Volante, updated DBX707, and the new V12 models announced today, can all contribute to the numbers. Don’t get me wrong. I’m not defending LS. His pricing model means it is unlikely I will buy another new Aston Martin, as the cost to change now makes no economic sense at all, even if I can afford it. Many others on here probably feel the same and are happy with the cars they currently own. But as a relatively long term loyal customer I want the company to survive, although it will probably mean a takeover at some point. The financials are not sustainable unless there is yet another cash injection or RI. I have refrained from posting anything in the LSE forum as there really is no point. There is clearly vested interest in there from one particular poster to continually talk the SP down and see this company fail, for whatever reason. I guess it’s no coincidence that his/her/their number of posts has dramatically increased over the last few days, and of course today.
BRM.
Indeed.BRM.
I'm finding the strategy of updating every model at the same time,and therefore slowing production and revenue, hard to fathom. It's certainly not an industry typical approach. However, the range of products is now looking very good.
That LSE forum is mental.
Jon39 said:
Did you listen to the presentation this morning?
L.S. absent. I did not hear the start of the presentation, but perhaps a reason was given for him not being present.
There was a cracking question from one analyst.
When the new CEO begins his role, will Lawrence Stroll relinquish his Executive Chairman position, so that the CEO can operate in an unhindered manner?
Doug Lafferty managed not to laugh, but said that is something he cannot answer, but he looks forward to working with the new CEO.
I have worked for a couple of people over the years who have found it difficult to delegate and who liked to interfere and be “hands on” in everything. I would assume LS fits that description. Do we know his start date yet? I think I read “by October 2024”. If LS is still top dog, I guess Mr Hallmark may get two years and will then be shoved off in to the sunset with a nice package…..and then rinse and repeat…….We shall see. BRM.
ferrisbueller said:
Indeed.
I'm finding the strategy of updating every model at the same time,and therefore slowing production and revenue, hard to fathom. It's certainly not an industry typical approach. However, the range of products is now looking very good.
That LSE forum is mental.
My guess is that normally a car company would space out the new updates more, with a new "revised" model each year through 2026, but Aston don't have the luxury of strong demand for the cars that everyone knows will be updated/refreshed, so they would rather take a hit of a lag in sales (who will buy a 2024 DBX 707 today?) in the short term, to give stronger consistent sales for next year. The debt is so high and the sales numbers flat, that it's basically, get all the new cars and "one offs" (Valour etc) out in 2024, even if that means heavily discounting the remaining '23 Db11s (a few), '24 Vantages and '24 DBXs sitting on dealer lots. Q1 and Q2 will be bad, Q3 and Q4 need to be great. I'm finding the strategy of updating every model at the same time,and therefore slowing production and revenue, hard to fathom. It's certainly not an industry typical approach. However, the range of products is now looking very good.
That LSE forum is mental.
BenAstonV12 said:
ferrisbueller said:
Indeed.
I'm finding the strategy of updating every model at the same time,and therefore slowing production and revenue, hard to fathom. It's certainly not an industry typical approach. However, the range of products is now looking very good.
That LSE forum is mental.
My guess is that normally a car company would space out the new updates more, with a new "revised" model each year through 2026, but Aston don't have the luxury of strong demand for the cars that everyone knows will be updated/refreshed, so they would rather take a hit of a lag in sales (who will buy a 2024 DBX 707 today?) in the short term, to give stronger consistent sales for next year. The debt is so high and the sales numbers flat, that it's basically, get all the new cars and "one offs" (Valour etc) out in 2024, even if that means heavily discounting the remaining '23 Db11s (a few), '24 Vantages and '24 DBXs sitting on dealer lots. Q1 and Q2 will be bad, Q3 and Q4 need to be great. I'm finding the strategy of updating every model at the same time,and therefore slowing production and revenue, hard to fathom. It's certainly not an industry typical approach. However, the range of products is now looking very good.
That LSE forum is mental.
Let’s not forget that previous sales figures were explained away by the “old” model lineup and DBX was supposed to sell [6?]000 a year. DBX has clearly done nowhere near the predicted levels, with volumes seemingly only having been helped by the 707. If that sold because the “most powerful” marketing worked, then that’s clearly neither good nor sustainable.
They’re not the only ones with headwind either but tbh Aston Martin’s R&D challenges are surely very small in comparison to others. They’re mostly doing an infotainment upgrade, the rest of the industry is putting in multiple billions in EV tech. LS has clearly seen the interior as a weakness and decided to upgrade them all. It’s not a crazy strategy I would have thought.
DMZ said:
They’re not the only ones with headwind either but tbh Aston Martin’s R&D challenges are surely very small in comparison to others. They’re mostly doing an infotainment upgrade, the rest of the industry is putting in multiple billions in EV tech.
LS has clearly seen the interior as a weakness and decided to upgrade them all. It’s not a crazy strategy I would have thought.
LS has clearly seen the interior as a weakness and decided to upgrade them all. It’s not a crazy strategy I would have thought.
Yes.
On your last point, were AML too slow to react and therefore forfeited many sales over 6 years?
I appreciate that LS did not arrive until halfway through that period, but in 2018, there were comments from many posters on this forum, that the new Vantage interior was not 'wow'.
The original technical agreement with Mercedes-Benz, did not allow AML to use of their latest infotainment, so perhaps that might have been one limitation. The sales figures suggest that millions in revenue must have been lost.
At last now sorted, so hopefully the buyer demand will increase.
Obviously impossible to make any meaningful debt and interest payment reduction, until continual profitability can be achieved.
Personally I think their going against the grain and avoiding the electrification push is a mistake. The market for the kind of cars they're producing is small and shrinking. By the time they change tack the competitors will be well established in that area and AM will face a long slog against better funded opposition.
Interiors is a red herring- unless horrific they're not going to be the reason for sluggish sales overall.
I don't see them surviving as a sole entity.
Interiors is a red herring- unless horrific they're not going to be the reason for sluggish sales overall.
I don't see them surviving as a sole entity.
Forester1965 said:
I don't see them surviving as a sole entity.
Two of the attributes that Lawrence Stroll has brought to Aston Martin, has been raising expectations and also a remarkable ability to repeatedly make shareholders hand over cash.
Both very important for a business that is unable to generate cash.
The figures indicate that it might be possble, that we see yet another cash raise this year. However, with several new model announcements fresh in shareholders' minds, that should OK.
Wonder if they will try another 1 for 20 issue? A great trick to make some shareholders feel better.
Rjscharer said:
Just would like to cast a spotlight on an advertised discounted price here in the states for a new Vantage. 
This leads on to an interesting situation.
AML vehicles are sold to their dealers and I think payment is usually due soon after delivery.
With 'run-out' DB11, Vantage and DBX models already at dealers, significant discounts offered must presumably be shared between AML and the dealer.
When the over stocked Vantages were offered at bargain PCP prices, that promotion cost AML £35 million.
With three models now involved, there might therefore be a material write down in future AML accounts.
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