"Safe" investment, maybe gold?
Discussion
ATM said:
Massive break out in Silver. Up over 6% just today.
Gold to Silver ratio is accelerating down. For any less savvy types that means the price of Silver is rising much faster than the price of Gold.
Copper also looking strong still.
Quite a bit of volatility across various Commodities.
I don't know how anyone not trading paper can actually buy copper unless just buying a ton of plumbing supplies - the '999.9' bars from Geiger are bonkers-expensive over Spot, to the point that it would need to do something like 10x to recoup money spent.Gold to Silver ratio is accelerating down. For any less savvy types that means the price of Silver is rising much faster than the price of Gold.
Copper also looking strong still.
Quite a bit of volatility across various Commodities.
Am surprised over $30 was allowed to ride for the weekend, though - perhaps we need to look for another 'mysterious' massive dump of paper into the market over the weekend or first thing on Monday morning
lolEDIT: I forgot to say, Schectman has been saying that the Chinese own the LME (where non-precious metals are traded) and have moved storage of said metals to China. If that is true, it makes me wonder if delivery of metals might just stop at some point!
Edited by RSTurboPaul on Saturday 18th May 15:31
RSTurboPaul said:
Am surprised over $30 was allowed to ride for the weekend, though - perhaps we need to look for another 'mysterious' massive dump of paper into the market over the weekend or first thing on Monday morning lol
I am kicking myself a bit because I texted a few friends when it got over 29 a couple of weeks ago saying I predict a pull back to 26 before it motors up. It did exactly that but I didn't get into a position. lolThe Silver people have been saying it will explode higher for many many years. So I can understand why everyone is sceptical now. But you have to admit a 6% move up when the DXY isn't really moving down much and Gold only moved up about 1.5% has to be called significant.
If it carries on motoring up without a meaningful retrace everyone will be scared to jump in and waiting for this retrace. When do we say the days of Silver being smacked down are over?
ATM said:
RSTurboPaul said:
Am surprised over $30 was allowed to ride for the weekend, though - perhaps we need to look for another 'mysterious' massive dump of paper into the market over the weekend or first thing on Monday morning lol
I am kicking myself a bit because I texted a few friends when it got over 29 a couple of weeks ago saying I predict a pull back to 26 before it motors up. It did exactly that but I didn't get into a position. lolThe Silver people have been saying it will explode higher for many many years. So I can understand why everyone is sceptical now. But you have to admit a 6% move up when the DXY isn't really moving down much and Gold only moved up about 1.5% has to be called significant.
If it carries on motoring up without a meaningful retrace everyone will be scared to jump in and waiting for this retrace. When do we say the days of Silver being smacked down are over?
lolSeems the big BRICS meeting is in October this year, but they seem to be meeting throughout the year.
I know I bring up the Andy Schectman interviews a lot but he seems to be keeping track of everything that has been happening so is worth a watch on YouTube once in a while.
DitchTheDeepState from WSS reddit has his own substack offering Comex data analysis as well - some interesting stuff on there in terms of Registered/Eligible figures and contracts etc.:
https://econanalytics.substack.com
Bix Weir interviews Jack Sermon of the US Mint's Silver Eagle Program, with some very revealing information being discussed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2GwsmiBKWRU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhBU9a4xd6o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuEWkE5EeJc
It seems the US Mint are basically just breaking the law?!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2GwsmiBKWRU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhBU9a4xd6o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuEWkE5EeJc
It seems the US Mint are basically just breaking the law?!
ATM said:
I am kicking myself a bit because I texted a few friends when it got over 29 a couple of weeks ago saying I predict a pull back to 26 before it motors up. It did exactly that but I didn't get into a position.
Silver is now close enough to 30 to get me buying. Paper Silver not the real stuff. I'll buy more if we go lower.ATM said:
ATM said:
I am kicking myself a bit because I texted a few friends when it got over 29 a couple of weeks ago saying I predict a pull back to 26 before it motors up. It did exactly that but I didn't get into a position.
Silver is now close enough to 30 to get me buying. Paper Silver not the real stuff. I'll buy more if we go lower.Or that the reference to 'silver close enough to 30' refers to paper silver instead of real silver?
Should be 'interesting times' with regards to 'real silver' prices when (somewhat more) organic price discovery takes place under BRICS arrangements!
RSTurboPaul said:
ATM said:
ATM said:
I am kicking myself a bit because I texted a few friends when it got over 29 a couple of weeks ago saying I predict a pull back to 26 before it motors up. It did exactly that but I didn't get into a position.
Silver is now close enough to 30 to get me buying. Paper Silver not the real stuff. I'll buy more if we go lower.Or that the reference to 'silver close enough to 30' refers to paper silver instead of real silver?
Should be 'interesting times' with regards to 'real silver' prices when (somewhat more) organic price discovery takes place under BRICS arrangements!
I missed my own 26 level earlier and regretted it. This time I think 30 is a good level so I'm buying here. Not sure yet about a target so will see what happens. 36 could be a good target.
Edited to add
I am also buying Paper Copper here as a trade too.
Edited by ATM on Thursday 23 May 10:40
"Market crash indicator with spotty track record ‘Hindenburg Omen’ triggered last week"
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/28/market-crash-indic...
https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=trading...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/28/market-crash-indic...
https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=trading...
RSTurboPaul said:
"Market crash indicator with spotty track record ‘Hindenburg Omen’ triggered last week"
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/28/market-crash-indic...
https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=trading...
I'll give you a bit of advice and it's advice I wish I'd got years ago but never did and it's been arrived at through expensive and painful experience. It's not new or particularly insightful but it's strength is in its simplicity.https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/28/market-crash-indic...
https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=trading...
Trade what you see in front of you, nothing else, don't look to or rely on Macro type stuff, don't listen to talking heads who predict this or that, they don't know.
I have over the years paid for some plenty expensive news letters, services and commentary and none have done me any good because they all picked a side and then built a scenario around justifying a position. I'm not saying don't learn but don't rely on anything anyone says to you.
The combined weight of the top firms on Wall street were 90% certain 2023 would have a deep recession ( the 90% is taken from surveys) and many held that view even when the facts were glaringly different, I subscribed to some plenty heavy duty services including Tony Dwyer of Canaccord and they know how to charge for research, they were wrong on every metric and by April 2023, I realised or thought that the answers I was getting were not matching up with market action and they ending up just contradicting themselves because all the historical data in the world doesn't guarantee that it will be the same, it might be but who knows.
By June, I'd cancelled every service, expensive or cheap except Stockcharts real time and one guy who I follow in the oil game.
It's not my saying but forget about the bull side or the bear side and be on the right side.
'Big Short’ investor Michael Burry just made a multimillion-dollar bet on gold — and dumped tech giants Alphabet and Amazon. 3 ways to add the yellow metal now
https://moneywise.com/news/investing/big-short-inv...
https://moneywise.com/news/investing/big-short-inv...
website said:
...
According to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Burry’s company Scion Asset Management has made quite a few adjustments to its portfolio in Q1 of 2024.
among Burry’s notable moves were selling his stakes in Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) and increasing his holdings of Chinese companies JD.com (JD) and Alibaba (BABA).
Burry also made a substantial bet on gold by purchasing 440,729 shares of Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS), valued at $7.6 million at the end of Q1, making it the fifth-largest position in his portfolio. The closed-end fund's official website says it holds “substantially all of its assets in physical gold bullion.”
...
Gold is already experiencing a remarkable surge. At the beginning of this year, the precious metal was trading at $2,062 per ounce. Today, it’s at $2,357 per ounce, reflecting a 14.3% increase.
To put this into perspective, gold has outpaced the S&P 500, which has gained 11.7% over the same period.
...
According to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Burry’s company Scion Asset Management has made quite a few adjustments to its portfolio in Q1 of 2024.
among Burry’s notable moves were selling his stakes in Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) and increasing his holdings of Chinese companies JD.com (JD) and Alibaba (BABA).
Burry also made a substantial bet on gold by purchasing 440,729 shares of Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS), valued at $7.6 million at the end of Q1, making it the fifth-largest position in his portfolio. The closed-end fund's official website says it holds “substantially all of its assets in physical gold bullion.”
...
Gold is already experiencing a remarkable surge. At the beginning of this year, the precious metal was trading at $2,062 per ounce. Today, it’s at $2,357 per ounce, reflecting a 14.3% increase.
To put this into perspective, gold has outpaced the S&P 500, which has gained 11.7% over the same period.
...
Saudi to stop taking USD for oil on June 9th, when the petrodollar arrangements come to an end??
https://x.com/summ116/status/1796618863599370263
https://x.com/summ116/status/1796618863599370263
ATM said:
You boys have read about the new Unit - awful name I know. Apparently will be backed by 40% Gold and a basket of BRICS currencies. BRICS are working on this as a replacement of USD for settlement.
The white paper on its operation principles appears to be here - it makes my brain hurt 
https://wp.unitfoundation.org
It seems to revolve heavily around Gold:
UNIT info webpage said:
Fractal Monetary Design
We propose a solution to an alternative global currency problem by applying the fractal paradigm as broadly defined by Mandelbrot [1], where each node of the fractal network is a scaled-down replica of the whole.
Such a fractal network follows predefined evolution principles and simple governance rules. New nodes can be created and added by consensus among the existing nodes in the fractal network, and each new node contains a scaled replica of the whole as well.
The integrity of such a fractal network is preserved by a blockchain-based [2] synchronization and re-balancing mechanism that uses a variant of the Byzantine Fault Tolerance based Proof-of-Stake Consensus protocol [3].
The unique feature of the proposed decentralized monetary system is the anchoring of values of each component of the reserve basket to gold. The composition and pricing of the underlying basket is defined and measured in terms of gold.
We define the fractal unit ("the UNIT token") as a fungible monetary transactional element of the UNIT ecosystem representing a share of the total UNIT reserve basket consisting of 40% gold and fiat currencies freely convertible into gold.
A self-similar basket is present at each node of the fractal network, while the value of assets at all nodes adds up to the total value of the UNIT reserve basket, all measured in gold.
New UNIT tokens can be minted at the UNIT node level without the need for a central emitting authority or coordination among the issuers of underlying currencies. Further, new UNIT nodes can be launched in new jurisdictions with relative ease.
Emission of new UNIT tokens is made by exchanging a scaled replica of the UNIT reserve basket for new UNIT tokens and sharing the updated number of emitted UNIT tokens with the rest of the fractal monetary ecosystem and general public. Owning a share of the UNIT reserve basket at the UNIT node level is identical to owning a share of a scaled basket at the UNIT ecosystem level.
In the UNIT basket composition, there are no permanently fixed ratios for the underlying components, with the exception of two conditions stipulated in the UNIT rule-book and tested at the moment of emission of additional UNIT tokens: the gold content (40%) requirement and the maximum value (30%) requirement for any other component of the basket, valued in gold.
New UNIT tokens can be minted as needed at any time, upon delivery of the underlying components at a UNIT node. Composition and pricing of each component of the basket measured in gold is transparent and public.
This approach minimizes costs related to holding and moving a significant physical gold inventory, as modeled by Black [4]. We extend Black's analysis further by removing the assumption that gold is valued in terms of something other than gold itself.
We propose a solution to an alternative global currency problem by applying the fractal paradigm as broadly defined by Mandelbrot [1], where each node of the fractal network is a scaled-down replica of the whole.
Such a fractal network follows predefined evolution principles and simple governance rules. New nodes can be created and added by consensus among the existing nodes in the fractal network, and each new node contains a scaled replica of the whole as well.
The integrity of such a fractal network is preserved by a blockchain-based [2] synchronization and re-balancing mechanism that uses a variant of the Byzantine Fault Tolerance based Proof-of-Stake Consensus protocol [3].
The unique feature of the proposed decentralized monetary system is the anchoring of values of each component of the reserve basket to gold. The composition and pricing of the underlying basket is defined and measured in terms of gold.
We define the fractal unit ("the UNIT token") as a fungible monetary transactional element of the UNIT ecosystem representing a share of the total UNIT reserve basket consisting of 40% gold and fiat currencies freely convertible into gold.
A self-similar basket is present at each node of the fractal network, while the value of assets at all nodes adds up to the total value of the UNIT reserve basket, all measured in gold.
New UNIT tokens can be minted at the UNIT node level without the need for a central emitting authority or coordination among the issuers of underlying currencies. Further, new UNIT nodes can be launched in new jurisdictions with relative ease.
Emission of new UNIT tokens is made by exchanging a scaled replica of the UNIT reserve basket for new UNIT tokens and sharing the updated number of emitted UNIT tokens with the rest of the fractal monetary ecosystem and general public. Owning a share of the UNIT reserve basket at the UNIT node level is identical to owning a share of a scaled basket at the UNIT ecosystem level.
In the UNIT basket composition, there are no permanently fixed ratios for the underlying components, with the exception of two conditions stipulated in the UNIT rule-book and tested at the moment of emission of additional UNIT tokens: the gold content (40%) requirement and the maximum value (30%) requirement for any other component of the basket, valued in gold.
New UNIT tokens can be minted as needed at any time, upon delivery of the underlying components at a UNIT node. Composition and pricing of each component of the basket measured in gold is transparent and public.
This approach minimizes costs related to holding and moving a significant physical gold inventory, as modeled by Black [4]. We extend Black's analysis further by removing the assumption that gold is valued in terms of something other than gold itself.
RSTurboPaul said:
ATM said:
You boys have read about the new Unit - awful name I know. Apparently will be backed by 40% Gold and a basket of BRICS currencies. BRICS are working on this as a replacement of USD for settlement.
The white paper on its operation principles appears to be here - it makes my brain hurt https://wp.unitfoundation.org
It seems to revolve heavily around Gold:
UNIT info webpage said:
Fractal Monetary Design
We propose a solution to an alternative global currency problem by applying the fractal paradigm as broadly defined by Mandelbrot [1], where each node of the fractal network is a scaled-down replica of the whole.
Such a fractal network follows predefined evolution principles and simple governance rules. New nodes can be created and added by consensus among the existing nodes in the fractal network, and each new node contains a scaled replica of the whole as well.
The integrity of such a fractal network is preserved by a blockchain-based [2] synchronization and re-balancing mechanism that uses a variant of the Byzantine Fault Tolerance based Proof-of-Stake Consensus protocol [3].
The unique feature of the proposed decentralized monetary system is the anchoring of values of each component of the reserve basket to gold. The composition and pricing of the underlying basket is defined and measured in terms of gold.
We define the fractal unit ("the UNIT token") as a fungible monetary transactional element of the UNIT ecosystem representing a share of the total UNIT reserve basket consisting of 40% gold and fiat currencies freely convertible into gold.
A self-similar basket is present at each node of the fractal network, while the value of assets at all nodes adds up to the total value of the UNIT reserve basket, all measured in gold.
New UNIT tokens can be minted at the UNIT node level without the need for a central emitting authority or coordination among the issuers of underlying currencies. Further, new UNIT nodes can be launched in new jurisdictions with relative ease.
Emission of new UNIT tokens is made by exchanging a scaled replica of the UNIT reserve basket for new UNIT tokens and sharing the updated number of emitted UNIT tokens with the rest of the fractal monetary ecosystem and general public. Owning a share of the UNIT reserve basket at the UNIT node level is identical to owning a share of a scaled basket at the UNIT ecosystem level.
In the UNIT basket composition, there are no permanently fixed ratios for the underlying components, with the exception of two conditions stipulated in the UNIT rule-book and tested at the moment of emission of additional UNIT tokens: the gold content (40%) requirement and the maximum value (30%) requirement for any other component of the basket, valued in gold.
New UNIT tokens can be minted as needed at any time, upon delivery of the underlying components at a UNIT node. Composition and pricing of each component of the basket measured in gold is transparent and public.
This approach minimizes costs related to holding and moving a significant physical gold inventory, as modeled by Black [4]. We extend Black's analysis further by removing the assumption that gold is valued in terms of something other than gold itself.
We propose a solution to an alternative global currency problem by applying the fractal paradigm as broadly defined by Mandelbrot [1], where each node of the fractal network is a scaled-down replica of the whole.
Such a fractal network follows predefined evolution principles and simple governance rules. New nodes can be created and added by consensus among the existing nodes in the fractal network, and each new node contains a scaled replica of the whole as well.
The integrity of such a fractal network is preserved by a blockchain-based [2] synchronization and re-balancing mechanism that uses a variant of the Byzantine Fault Tolerance based Proof-of-Stake Consensus protocol [3].
The unique feature of the proposed decentralized monetary system is the anchoring of values of each component of the reserve basket to gold. The composition and pricing of the underlying basket is defined and measured in terms of gold.
We define the fractal unit ("the UNIT token") as a fungible monetary transactional element of the UNIT ecosystem representing a share of the total UNIT reserve basket consisting of 40% gold and fiat currencies freely convertible into gold.
A self-similar basket is present at each node of the fractal network, while the value of assets at all nodes adds up to the total value of the UNIT reserve basket, all measured in gold.
New UNIT tokens can be minted at the UNIT node level without the need for a central emitting authority or coordination among the issuers of underlying currencies. Further, new UNIT nodes can be launched in new jurisdictions with relative ease.
Emission of new UNIT tokens is made by exchanging a scaled replica of the UNIT reserve basket for new UNIT tokens and sharing the updated number of emitted UNIT tokens with the rest of the fractal monetary ecosystem and general public. Owning a share of the UNIT reserve basket at the UNIT node level is identical to owning a share of a scaled basket at the UNIT ecosystem level.
In the UNIT basket composition, there are no permanently fixed ratios for the underlying components, with the exception of two conditions stipulated in the UNIT rule-book and tested at the moment of emission of additional UNIT tokens: the gold content (40%) requirement and the maximum value (30%) requirement for any other component of the basket, valued in gold.
New UNIT tokens can be minted as needed at any time, upon delivery of the underlying components at a UNIT node. Composition and pricing of each component of the basket measured in gold is transparent and public.
This approach minimizes costs related to holding and moving a significant physical gold inventory, as modeled by Black [4]. We extend Black's analysis further by removing the assumption that gold is valued in terms of something other than gold itself.
It
Simple
Stupid
Currently it's the USD
Now they're talking about a replacement
This has 2 major impacts
1. Reduces demand for USD
2. Increases demand for Gold
Even if number 2 is irrelevant or doesn't happen or the Unit never happens and is replaced by something else or is not backed by Gold. However that happens. Number 1 still happens. And that's massive. If the USA let it happen. I don't know if they will or they will increase the whole push towards war. Can they even stop it.
Without getting into a massive debate about everything that's going on let's keep it simple.
They're talking about a replacement of the USD for international settlement outside of our little G7 type club.
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