Sir Ed Davey - Lib. Dem Leader
Discussion
anonymous said:
[redacted]
There is truth in this. There won't be an election tomorrow of course but, even if Johnson runs full term, it's hard to see how he will have sufficiently turned around the double headed economic clusterf
k of Brexit and Covid in 4 years, whilst Covid will be his 'black Wednesday' moment. I think we can expect 4 years of zombie Govt whilst, in '23/4 Starmer doesn't quite take enough of the blue wall back to win an outright majority. Then it's step forward Ed for a pro re-entry Lib Lab coalition.I'm a Conservative and have been all my life but I'm also realistic enough to know that, electorally, the party is f*cked for the next 15 years.
ClaphamGT3 said:
I suspect their stance of keeping EU membership front and centre of their policy priorities is smart. It should play well in 3-4 years time at the next GE when the withdrawal impact is beginning to bite and they should pick up a strong LG position along the way. Whist electoral outcomes 3 years out are guesswork, it's not improbable that neither party takes an overall majority in the next GE. It's very likely that the price that the Lib Dems will exact for entering into any coalition Govt in future is a second referendum on EU membership.
Have you been round to Derek's to play pass the bong?If they couldn't capitalise on that position at the last two General Elections, there is no way on this Earth they are going to be huge beneficiaries of persisting with it in 4yrs' time when we'll have been fully out for that length of time.
Let's just say hypothetically we are doing demonstrably badly solely as a result of not being in the EU (good luck with that), do you think in that circumstance the EU would simply do a Dallas and readmit on all the old terms?
Or do you think things will have moved on in the EU (as they already have) and any rejoining would then involve removal of the veto, joining the Euro and increased contributions?
If you think the UK electorate would be up for rejoining in those circumstances, I think you've been cheating in the game with Derek
I think most people will be sick and tired of the EU debate (I suspect most already are). We'll be getting over other economic and geopolitical issues that make people realise Brexit wasn't the be all and end all after all. We'll have settled into new trading arrangements and people will actually realise the sky hasn't fallen in and may even realise the truth behind all the predictions - that they were hypothetical relative GROWTH estimates...so they'll never feel the pain so directly attributable to Brexit according to Remain voters.
The LibDems, and Labour for that matter, need to focus every single ounce of energy on matters that have a much more direct bearing on people's every day lives. Getting the country's finances sorted, education, health care, ageing demographics, revamping our economic base, energy, transport etc etc etc. Whoever puts the best case forward on those fronts in 4yrs' time will be the one that gets into power. And whoever does that without having "look at how bad they are" as the core argument will win out too - positive politics on what they will improve is going to be key.
Vanden Saab said:
Retouched for accuracy.
dandarez said:
anonymoususer said:
I feel sorry for Layla I think there should be more high profile women in parliament
Ed is very down to earth and probably one of the least privilidged MP's
Ed's already promised her (Dep Leader?) a 'big role' in the party.Ed is very down to earth and probably one of the least privilidged MP's
So thereby guaranteeing their continuing failure.
ClaphamGT3 said:
I suspect their stance of keeping EU membership front and centre of their policy priorities is smart. It should play well in 3-4 years time at the next GE when the withdrawal impact is beginning to bite and they should pick up a strong LG position along the way. Whist electoral outcomes 3 years out are guesswork, it's not improbable that neither party takes an overall majority in the next GE. It's very likely that the price that the Lib Dems will exact for entering into any coalition Govt in future is a second referendum on EU membership.
Sure !!! all the butt hurt metropolitan elite will love them, everyone else?? well fill in the blanks.. 
I met him a few weeks before the last election. He was trying to persuade a small group of us to vote Lib Dem, his entire argument appeared be giving us reasons not to vote for the other parties rather than why we should vote for his. He will really need to up his game if he is to become the leader of a party with a significant presence in parliament.
Murph7355 said:
ClaphamGT3 said:
I suspect their stance of keeping EU membership front and centre of their policy priorities is smart. It should play well in 3-4 years time at the next GE when the withdrawal impact is beginning to bite and they should pick up a strong LG position along the way. Whist electoral outcomes 3 years out are guesswork, it's not improbable that neither party takes an overall majority in the next GE. It's very likely that the price that the Lib Dems will exact for entering into any coalition Govt in future is a second referendum on EU membership.
Have you been round to Derek's to play pass the bong?If they couldn't capitalise on that position at the last two General Elections, there is no way on this Earth they are going to be huge beneficiaries of persisting with it in 4yrs' time when we'll have been fully out for that length of time.
Let's just say hypothetically we are doing demonstrably badly solely as a result of not being in the EU (good luck with that), do you think in that circumstance the EU would simply do a Dallas and readmit on all the old terms?
Or do you think things will have moved on in the EU (as they already have) and any rejoining would then involve removal of the veto, joining the Euro and increased contributions?
If you think the UK electorate would be up for rejoining in those circumstances, I think you've been cheating in the game with Derek
I think most people will be sick and tired of the EU debate (I suspect most already are). We'll be getting over other economic and geopolitical issues that make people realise Brexit wasn't the be all and end all after all. We'll have settled into new trading arrangements and people will actually realise the sky hasn't fallen in and may even realise the truth behind all the predictions - that they were hypothetical relative GROWTH estimates...so they'll never feel the pain so directly attributable to Brexit according to Remain voters.
The LibDems, and Labour for that matter, need to focus every single ounce of energy on matters that have a much more direct bearing on people's every day lives. Getting the country's finances sorted, education, health care, ageing demographics, revamping our economic base, energy, transport etc etc etc. Whoever puts the best case forward on those fronts in 4yrs' time will be the one that gets into power. And whoever does that without having "look at how bad they are" as the core argument will win out too - positive politics on what they will improve is going to be key.
amgmcqueen said:
dandarez said:
anonymoususer said:
I feel sorry for Layla I think there should be more high profile women in parliament
Ed is very down to earth and probably one of the least privilidged MP's
Ed's already promised her (Dep Leader?) a 'big role' in the party.Ed is very down to earth and probably one of the least privilidged MP's
So thereby guaranteeing their continuing failure.
The Dums will get an even bigger drubbing!
HappySilver said:
I met him a few weeks before the last election. He was trying to persuade a small group of us to vote Lib Dem, his entire argument appeared be giving us reasons not to vote for the other parties rather than why we should vote for his. He will really need to up his game if he is to become the leader of a party with a significant presence in parliament.
All opposition parties need to start doing this.What are they actually going to DO that will better the nation. Forget trying to rubbish what the prior/current government have done, tell everyone what your own ideas are and why we should get behind them.
Starting a bun fight when you have people like Olney and Moran in your ranks, or Lammy, Ashworth, Raynor, Abbott etc if you're Starmer is not a winning strategy. That's not throwing stones when living in glasshouses...that's setting off the world's supply of explosives living in Crystal Palace.
They have turned themselves into a one issue campaign group rather than a political party. That's great but also means their long term future is the same as UKIP and the Brexit Party. Continuing along that line would be madness and doom them to extinction. They may as well define themselves as a party campaigning on corn laws or the Crimean War.
Were there an election today they could well lose all their MPs and finish them as a national party.
Davey has a hard job - he needs to reestablish them as a proper, serious national party rather than a student politics tribute act with a defined position. If they go left and decide to pick up disaffected Corbyn supporters they are finished as most of their target seats are Conservative and equally a sensible middle ground which may appeal to disillusioned Tories will upset their newer membership.
Were there an election today they could well lose all their MPs and finish them as a national party.
Davey has a hard job - he needs to reestablish them as a proper, serious national party rather than a student politics tribute act with a defined position. If they go left and decide to pick up disaffected Corbyn supporters they are finished as most of their target seats are Conservative and equally a sensible middle ground which may appeal to disillusioned Tories will upset their newer membership.
Derek Smith said:
I doubt it. When the result of the negotiations are revealed, and as a fait acompli, it will be headline material. It will be the main thread on NPE. Brexit is the next big thing. It will trump Trump and Covid.
They've tried being a pressure Group on that subject at two elections and it has got them two total drubbings, 4 leaders in 5 years, one leader lost seat, 11 MPs and bumping along at 5-6% in the polls. A glorious success. If they think that is their future they are doomed. ClaphamGT3 said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
There is truth in this. There won't be an election tomorrow of course but, even if Johnson runs full term, it's hard to see how he will have sufficiently turned around the double headed economic clusterfk of Brexit and Covid in 4 years, whilst Covid will be his 'black Wednesday' moment. I think we can expect 4 years of zombie Govt whilst, in '23/4 Starmer doesn't quite take enough of the blue wall back to win an outright majority. Then it's step forward Ed for a pro re-entry Lib Lab coalition.I'm a Conservative and have been all my life but I'm also realistic enough to know that, electorally, the party is f*cked for the next 15 years.
The last YouGov voting intention poll put Conservatives on 43%, Labour and Lib Dems having 42% between them. Before Boris stormed the last election they were still on 43%, Labour and Lib Dems having 46% between them.
If something's going to change the way people vote, we haven't seen it yet.
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