Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4
Discussion
IanH755 said:
The concern is that this will be over (one way or another) BEFORE Russia hits this mythical "number of deaths" which will suddenly, almost magically, change everything about how Russia has been fighting for the past 100+ years.
There is no magic number, there is no mythical "Oh but as soon as St Petersburg?Moscow starts seeing death they'll stop" - Russia is doing what Russia always does and wanting to pretend that there is some line in the sand on casualty numbers just doesn't recognise the reality of the situation, and to be blunt comes across in the same vein as "once they get Javlin/NLAW - once they get HIMARS - once they get StormShadow - Once they get Challenger 2/Abrams - once they get ATACMS - once they get F-16's" etc etc as being wishful hoping for a single thing that will suddenly win the war, rather than something based on reality where this will only be won/lost based on Putin and what he wants, absolutely nothing else will change that.
The Ukrainians are fighting for their country's survival, the Russians are fighting for Putin's vanity. There are lot's of ways for this to end that don't involve Putin's free will.There is no magic number, there is no mythical "Oh but as soon as St Petersburg?Moscow starts seeing death they'll stop" - Russia is doing what Russia always does and wanting to pretend that there is some line in the sand on casualty numbers just doesn't recognise the reality of the situation, and to be blunt comes across in the same vein as "once they get Javlin/NLAW - once they get HIMARS - once they get StormShadow - Once they get Challenger 2/Abrams - once they get ATACMS - once they get F-16's" etc etc as being wishful hoping for a single thing that will suddenly win the war, rather than something based on reality where this will only be won/lost based on Putin and what he wants, absolutely nothing else will change that.
1: The west is slow and uncoordinated but they have orders of magnitude more industrial capacity than Russia. Factories are being built to manufacture shells, drones, anti aircraft missiles. By 2025 it is likely that Ukraine may have an equipment advantage and start grinding Russia out of their country. Putin's will has very little to do with this.
2: The fears of escalation have turned out to be illusory, if Russia could be doing more it probably would and they have much more to fear from escalation given that they are 100% committed already and NATO has basically sent some hand me downs. If NATO air forces started shooting down their missiles in Ukraine they aren't going to start attacking NATO countries or firing their missiles.
3: People will endure a lot in a war of necessity, this isn't one if Russia stops the cost is basically zero, they won't be invaded. When Wagner did their road trip nobody tried to stop them. This suggests that popular or elite moves against Putin would have a good chance of being supported by the other faction of society.
It's about time the West took their fingers out of their bums and started to get serious with this. Lots of the weaponry already supplied was almost past its shelf life, so it might as well be lobbed in the direction of Russia. If North Korea wants to get involved, then a few 'secret' missions to scupper the supply ships to Russia, and some sabotage on railway supply trains would wake them up.
robinessex said:
It's about time the West took their fingers out of their bums and started to get serious with this. Lots of the weaponry already supplied was almost past its shelf life, so it might as well be lobbed in the direction of Russia. If North Korea wants to get involved, then a few 'secret' missions to scupper the supply ships to Russia, and some sabotage on railway supply trains would wake them up.
I suspect the last thing we need is to be discovered taking direct action against a nuclear-armed non-combatant state led by someone with even worse impulse control than Putin.964Cup said:
robinessex said:
It's about time the West took their fingers out of their bums and started to get serious with this. Lots of the weaponry already supplied was almost past its shelf life, so it might as well be lobbed in the direction of Russia. If North Korea wants to get involved, then a few 'secret' missions to scupper the supply ships to Russia, and some sabotage on railway supply trains would wake them up.
I suspect the last thing we need is to be discovered taking direct action against a nuclear-armed non-combatant state led by someone with even worse impulse control than Putin.964Cup said:
robinessex said:
It's about time the West took their fingers out of their bums and started to get serious with this. Lots of the weaponry already supplied was almost past its shelf life, so it might as well be lobbed in the direction of Russia. If North Korea wants to get involved, then a few 'secret' missions to scupper the supply ships to Russia, and some sabotage on railway supply trains would wake them up.
I suspect the last thing we need is to be discovered taking direct action against a nuclear-armed non-combatant state led by someone with even worse impulse control than Putin.https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=4k...
Gecko1978 said:
964Cup said:
robinessex said:
It's about time the West took their fingers out of their bums and started to get serious with this. Lots of the weaponry already supplied was almost past its shelf life, so it might as well be lobbed in the direction of Russia. If North Korea wants to get involved, then a few 'secret' missions to scupper the supply ships to Russia, and some sabotage on railway supply trains would wake them up.
I suspect the last thing we need is to be discovered taking direct action against a nuclear-armed non-combatant state led by someone with even worse impulse control than Putin.Digga said:
catso said:
And, maybe a good proportion of them that did leave might decide not to go back...
This, completely. The only game NK have is siege maintenance.Gecko1978 said:
964Cup said:
robinessex said:
It's about time the West took their fingers out of their bums and started to get serious with this. Lots of the weaponry already supplied was almost past its shelf life, so it might as well be lobbed in the direction of Russia. If North Korea wants to get involved, then a few 'secret' missions to scupper the supply ships to Russia, and some sabotage on railway supply trains would wake them up.
I suspect the last thing we need is to be discovered taking direct action against a nuclear-armed non-combatant state led by someone with even worse impulse control than Putin.MightyBadger said:
magpie215 said:
Russia waving the Nuclear stick.....again
Can't really blame them after Cameron said it was ok for Ukraine to use the bombs and missiles we send them to conduct strikes inside of Russian territory.MightyBadger said:
magpie215 said:
Russia waving the Nuclear stick.....again
Can't really blame them after Cameron said it was ok for Ukraine to use the bombs and missiles we send them to conduct strikes inside of Russian territory.Let's see. You launch a full-scale invasion on a sovereign country, flattening entire towns and cities, displacing millions and killing & maiming thousands.
Yet, when the opponent retaliates on your land, it's somehow both a surprise and frowned upon and your proportionate response is to wave your nuclear stick?
Yep, sounds about right. Can't blame them.
BikeBikeBIke said:
Eh? Why shouldn't Ukraine conduct strikes inside Russian territory?
You could see how Putin might feel (waving the sabre) as we are making a lot of those strikes possible for Ukraine with stuff we send them.Just feels like when Cameron says things like we creep just that little bit closer to WW3.
Oh well.
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