EVs... no one wants them!

[tamore]

DonkeyApple said:

tamore said:

i'm not being part of monetising that bellend's youtube account. likewise McMaster and others. they're clickbait.

as for head in sand. i'm 2 years in to having my head in the sand of actually running an EV. was the same cost as the ICE model (vauxhall combo life), and costs absolutely peanuts to run. easily carried our 3 labradors about in plenty of space, or 8 casks of beer when needed during the working day. range could be better, so longer trips need 5 mins planning.

Edited by tamore on Monday 6th May 21:41

Why worry about it though. Those people are just exploiting the people EVs aren't even aimed at or meant for and won't be for years to come. Like tabloids they're just winding a target group up to grift some cash.

worried? not a bit of it. they are merely online eco chambers which used to be 'down the pub'.

but if someone flags one f their youtube posts as some sort of barometer of an entire market, i'll suggest that maybe it isn't!

[DonkeyApple]

tamore said:

worried? not a bit of it. they are merely online eco chambers which used to be 'down the pub'.

but if someone flags one f their youtube posts as some sort of barometer of an entire market, i'll suggest that maybe it isn't!

But no one is going to take such a post seriously. People like Geoff are just grifting and exploiting the vulnerable and folks who are possibly decades away from being able to use or have an EV. The MacMaster chap even appears to go heavily out of his way to pretend to be thick as mince so as to create appeal from his target demographic. The Geoff bloke must wet himself laughing at the comments his stuff generates. And everyone knows that like the tabloids their view and co tent is just going to pivot as the demands of their demographic does.

Bob Llewelyn's team does the same for their target demographic using the style of content suitable to that demographic. I noticed the other day they'd even had to succumb to utilising the greasy grifter that is Q Wilson. And they constantly distort reality seeking to paint a picture that everything is awesome.

There's lots of crap spewed on either side as people seek to take a turn on various demographics practically continuing the Brexit Remain exploitation.

In fairness you can't really produce content that isn't partisan with base headlines because on a subject such as this where you have some people angry they can't have the latest chattel, others pleased as punch at the prowess of having the latest chattel, or people who live in perpetual fear of the imaginary 'Man' versus those who have never even contemplated the weird concept of 'The Man', or the fact that here we have a product that appears to now sit along imaginary class divides, farcical consumer divides, political divides and even fuels conspiracy theory nutjobs needing to hide from reality. But someone posting a 'Geoff' video as proof of something or as evidence is clearly on the wind up.

All that really matters is the actual numbers and there are two things here, firstly the ZEV Mandate now quantifies minimum numbers out a decade so ten years forward we actually now know what the minimum number of EVs will be give or take standard changes in total fleet and total annual new sales as GDP ebbs and flows over the decade. Secondly, what the numbers show is that there is no Revolution taking place, next to no reason whatsoever for all these people to be stting their pants all the time on either side. It's an evolution that will take longer to permeate U.K. culture than the arrival of the ring road retail park which barely existed thirty years ago, had millions up in arms over, a handful gloating about how they wasted their weekend going to one and how it made them a special person who was finally validated as a human, to today where every weekend tens of millions of mindless vegetables gather at these places to acquire things they don't need with money they don't have.

36 million cars in the U.K. fleet.

~2m new cars added each year.
~2m scrapped each year.

2024 after more than a decade of hard sales, tax incentives and govt legislation we now have 1m EVs as part of the 36m U.K. fleet.

This is the point at which it surely must be dawning on even the most confused that they've been duped into thinking there's some kind of crazy revolution taking place.

Maybe, a brief moment of clarity then allows for the realisation that at no point during their life time has anyone, anybody or anything told them that they must have an EV?

Now comes the ZEV:

2024:22%

That essentially means that in 2024 of an overseas manufacturer wishes to retain access to the lucrative U.K. market they must ensure that at least 22% of what they sell is pure EV.

Not a single human in the U.K. is being forced or told they must buy one and as can very clearly be seen, nearly 80% of new car buyers can and will be ICe.

We will import or assemble 2m cars in 2024. About 400,000 need to be EVs. That's it. Of the 36m cars that comprise the U.K. fleet the number that are EVs will go from 1m to at best 1.5m

2025:28% 600k EVs
2026:33% 700k
2027:38% 800k
2028:52% 1m
2029:66% 1.3m
2030:80%. 1.6m

So by the end of 2030 there will be just 6m EVs in the fleet of ~36m cars

Which really is now begging the question as to what on Earth are the nutters on either side getting so utterly distressed about?

You've then got 80% to 2035 so 5 years of 1.6m being added. So by 2035 there will be something in the region of 13-15m EVs in the fleet but also almost all the pre 2020 EVs will have been scrapped or close to scrapping and those scrappage rates will rapidly increase to map ICE rates as they work through the early EV years of there being almost no EVs and most with poor BMS systems etc.

Anyway, 2035 we are still going to have maybe as many as 20m ICE cars making up the bulk of the U.K. fleet. And still not a living soul being told they have to buy an EV.

EVs will have become more convenient. They'll be cheaper to run and in urban settings have more access and fewer taxes but still no one will be being forced to have an EV.

But the one thing we do know is that despite no one being forced almost all of those who today rail against EVs for any of their reasons will have split into two core groups. The dead of old age and the scrabbling to get hold of an EV at any cost and to proclaim as loudly as possible that they always believed in EVs and that this object makes them a better person than the peasant next door with his ICE.

In short, what Geoff says isn't relevant. What Geoff's viewers think isn't just irrelevant but will reverse the moment they can afford an EV. And there is no Revolution.

[charltjr]

I don’t agree with everything you say DA, but your evolution vs revolution argument is so absolutely spot on.

This is a gradual transition, nothing more.

As ever, life would be better if people weren’t tribal.

[MightyBadger]

This thread is great

Maybe just read the newspaper article then if you don't like the person presenting it. Bunch of melts 'oooh the nasty man is talking bad about evs', no he is just reporting on an actual court case.

Have a nice day, stay out of the sun.

Edited by MightyBadger on Tuesday 7th May 08:53

[Unreal]

I do like predictions and projections. I particularly like those looking 10-15 years ahead. The covid death projections were some of the most entertaining ever although the ones about bankrupting the country and a multi generational debt legacy were a bit too close for comfort. Stopped clocks and all that.

I am about to drive a 2008 diesel. When it was made the world was in thrall to diesel, we had forums eulogising about how anyone using petrol should convert to diesel and how mapped diesels were a performance revolution. I remember a youtube video by some TV presenter about a 320D being all the car you'd ever need. No-one was talking about EVs in 2008.

As a result, I am really looking forward to seeing just how well today's projections match up to the reality in 2034-2039.

[DonkeyApple]

charltjr said:

I don’t agree with everything you say DA, but your evolution vs revolution argument is so absolutely spot on.

This is a gradual transition, nothing more.

As ever, life would be better if people weren’t tribal.

It's the extremity of the tribalism.

There's also a stat that nearly 70% of U.K. households have private parking and of course non car ownership is very likely to be highest amongst households with no parking, such as inner city apartments etc so you can begin to see why there is no max panic about charging these things. The folks who can't easily recharge at home will be among the last to switch which could be decades away and in all likelihood they'll change from saying that they'll never switch to demanding they're allowed to switch when they start to see their immediate peers getting EVs and realising that the destination charging network they need has been quietly created.

The added economic bonus of loosening the reliance on the USD value and price of oil will also start to show over the coming decades.

[7 5 7]

Unreal said:

I do like predictions and projections. I particularly like those looking 10-15 years ahead. The covid death projections were some of the most entertaining ever although the ones about bankrupting the country and a multi generational debt legacy were a bit too close for comfort. Stopped clocks and all that.

I am about to drive a 2008 diesel. When it was made the world was in thrall to diesel, we had forums eulogising about how anyone using petrol should convert to diesel and how mapped diesels were a performance revolution. I remember a youtube video by some TV presenter about a 320D being all the car you'd ever need. No-one was talking about EVs in 2008.

As a result, I am really looking forward to seeing just how well today's projections match up to the reality in 2034-2039.

+1 this

[MightyBadger]

Another related article - you probably will not read it because the newspaper isn't big enough or some other excuse.

https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/motoring/inves...

oooooh wait, it was conducted by What Car?

[DonkeyApple]

All that will have happened by 2034-39 is that a few million more of the households with driveways, smart meters and the ability to use an EV will have switched and hopefully all the subsidies will have ended years earlier.

I suspect the only real visible change may be in the brands being bought new in the U.K. as there are bound to be some departures and some new entrants between now and then.

Meanwhile, the majority will still be using ICE but giving a little more thought to when it might be best for them personally to switch.

[Wills2]

I think another factor at play is the dramatic slow down in new car sales over the last 4 years, 2016-2019 sales averaged 2.9 million per year 2020-2023 that had dropped to an average of 1.9 million, last year we registered fewer cars than in 2020 which is remarkable when you consider what happened in 2020.

People are keeping cars longer, having your addressable market size drop by a third isn't helpful when trying to drive a transition especially when your market share growth has flat lined.

[DonkeyApple]

All that will have happened by 2034-39 is that a few million more of the households with driveways, smart meters and the ability to use an EV will have switched and hopefully all the subsidies will have ended years earlier.

I suspect the only real visible change may be in the brands being bought new in the U.K. as there are bound to be some departures and some new entrants between now and then.

Meanwhile, the majority will still be using ICE but giving a little more thought to when it might be best for them personally to switch.

[otolith]

MightyBadger said:

Another related article - you probably will not read it because the newspaper isn't big enough or some other excuse.

https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/motoring/inves...

oooooh wait, it was conducted by What Car?

Sorry, have you only just heard that the standard, mandatory WLTP test is optimistic? I thought everyone and his dog knew that. It's optimistic for petrol cars too, though less so than the NEDC test it replaced in Europe.

[ChocolateFrog]

SWoll said:

Road use charging for everyone, and even more prohibitive taxation on ICE cars I'd have thought under a Labour government?

I'd happily pay the same or more than ICE to run an EV personally as they are far better as a daily for my use. Won't be the case for everyone of course, but for me the cheap running costs at the moment are just a bonus.

It's an interesting proposition. What would I want to drive if they both cost the same to run?

It's unarguable to me that the EV is better but would my neanderthal brain want the ICE? Probably not as a regular ICE often isn't anything special.

[MightyBadger]

otolith said:

Sorry, have you only just heard that the standard, mandatory WLTP test is optimistic? I thought everyone and his dog knew that. It's optimistic for petrol cars too, though less so than the NEDC test it replaced in Europe.

No, only just found out really. I thought they had to be fairly near the claims (like ice cars) but not as far off with their range as What Car are suggesting - seems very misleading for the manufacturers to make such range claims

[ChocolateFrog]

MightyBadger said:

Another related article - you probably will not read it because the newspaper isn't big enough or some other excuse.

https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/motoring/inves...

oooooh wait, it was conducted by What Car?

Investigation finds grass is green and the sky is blue (sometimes)

[MightyBadger]

Never would of thought evangelists ignore facts.

[ChocolateFrog]

MightyBadger said:

No, only just found out really. I thought they had to be fairly near the claims (like ice cars) but not as far off with their range as What Car are suggesting - seems very misleading for the manufacturers to make such range claims

You clearly don't have one and don't want one?

Why does it seem to bother you enough to post all these clickbaity links?

The way I drive my car the real world range is around 140 miles. In thousands of miles that's just not been an issue because it gets plugged in every evening when I park it. If I absolutely had to I could eek that out to around 250 miles but like the vast majority of people I rarely do that mileage in a single journey.

[MightyBadger]

ChocolateFrog said:

You clearly don't have one and don't want one?

Why does it seem to bother you enough to post all these clickbaity links?

The way I drive my car the real world range is around 140 miles. In thousands of miles that's just not been an issue because it gets plugged in every evening when I park it. If I absolutely had to I could eek that out to around 250 miles but like the vast majority of people I rarely do that mileage in a single journey.

How are absolute facts clickbait?

I would be pretty miffed if I had saved up and paid 51k for an ID7 Pro thinking it could do the mileage VW claim (383 miles) and it only manages to do 252 from brand new in real world situation - would call that misselling.

I would agree with calling these clickbait links but they contain cold hard facts - ignore them all and say its made up for all I care but these are real stats in the two links I have posted. Food for thought for anyone who isnt an EV crusader.

[ChocolateFrog]

MightyBadger said:

ChocolateFrog said:

You clearly don't have one and don't want one?

Why does it seem to bother you enough to post all these clickbaity links?

The way I drive my car the real world range is around 140 miles. In thousands of miles that's just not been an issue because it gets plugged in every evening when I park it. If I absolutely had to I could eek that out to around 250 miles but like the vast majority of people I rarely do that mileage in a single journey.

How are absolute facts clickbait?

I would be pretty miffed if I had saved up and paid 51k for an ID7 Pro thinking it could do the mileage VW claim (383 miles) and it only manages to do 252 from brand new in real world situation - would call that misselling.

I would agree with calling these clickbait links but they contain cold hard facts - ignore them all and say its made up for all I care but these are real stats in the two links I have posted. Food for thought for anyone who isnt an EV crusader.

You'd be an idiot if you thought it would do that. In the same way that almost no one achives the NEDC figures in real world driving.

Interesting fact. It's perfectly achievable to more than double the claimed range too. Just pick a nice warm couple of days and spend them doing 20mph.

https://www.renault.co.uk/renault-news/renault-zoe...

If I could afford to run an ICE that had the same performance as my EV it would be averaging well under 20 mpg and would likely have a similar range.

I couldn't care less who buys what I just like to pop in here to laugh at the mis information from those who feel so threatened about a cars source of propulsion.

I want people like you to keep running and buying ICE cars. The longer you pay fuel duty and 20% VAT the longer I can pay 5% VAT on almost free electricity.

[romft123]

MightyBadger said:

ChocolateFrog said:

You clearly don't have one and don't want one?

Why does it seem to bother you enough to post all these clickbaity links?

The way I drive my car the real world range is around 140 miles. In thousands of miles that's just not been an issue because it gets plugged in every evening when I park it. If I absolutely had to I could eek that out to around 250 miles but like the vast majority of people I rarely do that mileage in a single journey.

How are absolute facts clickbait?

I would be pretty miffed if I had saved up and paid 51k for an ID7 Pro thinking it could do the mileage VW claim (383 miles) and it only manages to do 252 from brand new in real world situation - would call that misselling.

I would agree with calling these clickbait links but they contain cold hard facts - ignore them all and say its made up for all I care but these are real stats in the two links I have posted. Food for thought for anyone who isnt an EV crusader.

Then dont buy one.......again!