Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...

[Yipper]

Great article in The Economist this week, showing how Tesla has a 75% to 99.9% chance of failure, due to its gigantic debt load.

History suggests companies with big debt and big losses, over multiple years, like Tesla and Uber, rarely thrive or survive.

Such firms have charismatic leaders just winging it on debt.

Tesla and Uber are statistically doomed...

https://jalopnik.com/it-d-be-a-business-miracle-if...

https://www.economist.com/news/business/21730446-f...

[parabolica]

Stats don’t lie, but I’d be surprised if Musk would ever allow Tesla to fail. If a guy can launch rockets into space and build hyper-fast train infrastructure, you’d think he’d be able to bail out his car company if the time came.

[gangzoom]

If you get excited about news stories predicting Teslas imminent demise you must have been living under a rock for most of the last decade

https://jalopnik.com/5887265/tesla-motors-devastat...

[BlueHave]

I reckon once they get the Model 3 rolled out and start actually delivering the cars the debt with decrease.

The preorders don't lie and they will be as common as a Fiesta within 18 months.

[Blib]

Uber may or may not make it. However,The technology that enables it will and others will step in.

[Puddenchucker]

If I was a gambling man, I'd bet on Tesla being taken-over by or sold to one of the big established car makers within the next 10 years.

[frisbee]

Apparently house prices are going to crash as well.

[kambites]

Tesla's share price does seem to be based almost entirely on hyperbole. It'll certainly be interesting to see how it does over the next five years or so.

[easytiger123]

Elon Musk isn't a billionaire through a spot of good luck on the fruity at The Dog and Duck. He is unbelievably clever and a brilliant businessman. I wouldn't bet against Tesla not just surviving, but emerging as the largest and most profitable car manufacturer on the planet.

[johnnyreggae]

DELETED: Comment made by a member who's account has been deleted.

Isn't some of that because Tesla don't actually make many cars - something like a fraction of Ford or GM (was it 75 000 vs 2 000 000 annually ?) - even when their Chinese plant is on stream their production will still be much lower (500 000)

[Zetec-S]

Puddenchucker said:

If I was a gambling man, I'd bet on Tesla being taken-over by or sold to one of the big established car makers within the next 10 years.

I believe Musk has already said other companies can use their patents in order to speed up the development of EV's. The next logical step would be to sell it to one of the big players (or group of them). It would help speed up progress in the industry (something he is keen for), and also more importantly provide funding for his Mars ambition.

[Welshbeef]

I’d say one move Elon made (offering up all the technology for free no patents / for the greater good) is a very smart move.

He has his own vast and ever growing infrastructure charging points which all other brands could use. Why have multiple charging set ups when he offers if for free/already there.

What about the great press he always has - ie Australia and the black out “I’ll do this for you and if it takes longer than (a short time period) you can have it for free.

He has first mover advantage

He has diversity of products be is the wall power pack solar PVs the new Tesla roof tiles the cars the HGVs the charging setup the biggest range first delivers on promises. Has game changing ideas, the mars challenge the trains.
I’d say when you think of brands Tesla = Green/trying to save the world

There are not that many people who are remembered in History id be banking on it that he will certainly be one of them.


Personally I don’t like the look of some of the cars he has made and I really love noisy performance cars (which he is killing) but I’m confident he will do very well. Good on him.

[Krikkit]

Tesla has never really been a long-term prospect, more a nudge to the industry to drive change. I'd bet on it either being bought out or winding up within the next 6-10 years.

[irocfan]

BlueHave said:

I reckon once they get the Model 3 rolled out and start actually delivering the cars the debt with decrease.

The preorders don't lie and they will be as common as a Fiesta within 18 months.

not a chance, no way, not gonna happen. Not even in 5 years. They will become more common, a LOT more common over the comming years though

[Todd Bonzalez]

Does anyone know why people give Musk so much credit for stuff? I find it slightly cultish and weird. Seems to only exist in car companies that are stuff to do with the "tech world." Dyson and Jobs are two other notable ones that spring to mind. In reality, they're generally good capitalists who throw other people's money at the right people sometimes and just force through things that are not necessarily brilliant.

I've been working in this industry for the past decade and it's so odd to see it happening. It also seems to be a hugely Western phenomenon and I don't recall it happening with NextEV/Nio, Faraday and Lynk & co etc. Is it just celebrity culture now becoming part of everything and us needing false idols?

Been wondering for a while. Fully expect people to blindly defend the CEOs ITT and find it really interesting.

[Dave Hedgehog]

Blib said:

Uber may or may not make it. However,The technology that enables it will and others will step in.

the biggest threat to uber is google, once their self driving cars are green lighted they have the money to flood every major city with them and induction charging points

tesla i dont think is going anywhere, even if the cars dont catch on they will still have a huge capacity to make batteries for other companies with the gigafactory, and i dont think musk would actually be that bothered as his main goal is to get EVs mainstream, he certainly appears he has put the wind up the car industry

whilst i dont want an EV the tech nurd in me adores the powerwall, i can see this becoming mainstream over the next 20 years

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWLzlrGGuxQ

[Welshbeef]

Um well I think I covered it in my post.

He brought to the market a genuinely usable family car with incredible range (for an EV) and has for petrol heads made them epically quick.

I’ve never seen the gen1 Tesla roadster but the Model S in my neck of the woods is getting more and more common all the time.
Note I see vastly more Model Ss than I do 7 series S class A8’s Porsche 911/Caymans etc.
It is the perfect commuting car IMHO.

[CABC]

BlueHave said:

I reckon once they get the Model 3 rolled out and start actually delivering the cars the debt with decrease.

The preorders don't lie and they will be as common as a Fiesta within 18 months.

for that to happen they'd need to be priced quite keenly. Tesla can't repay the debt on that margin.
Innovation survives, most innovating companies don't.
We still have the channel tunnel to use though.

[johnnyreggae]

Welshbeef said:

It is the perfect commuting car IMHO.

Sixty or seventy grand to carry one person a few miles - may I beg to differ on this

[Dave Hedgehog]

Welshbeef said:

Um well I think I covered it in my post.

He brought to the market a genuinely usable family car with incredible range (for an EV) and has for petrol heads made them epically quick.

I’ve never seen the gen1 Tesla roadster but the Model S in my neck of the woods is getting more and more common all the time.
Note I see vastly more Model Ss than I do 7 series S class A8’s Porsche 911/Caymans etc.
It is the perfect commuting car IMHO.

low BIK?

Telsa also understands marketing and the power of having a Halo car, hence all the vids of Tesla's destroying pretty much anything on the qtr mile. Launch a halo car, get tonnes of press and social media coverage, bring out a 'normal' consumer car, get 400k pre orders.

something that is totally lost on lotus