Tipping point towards EVs is around 5 years
Discussion
Technology disruption forecast. EVs tipping point is in 5 years.
Convincing arguments:
Tony Seba: Clean Disruption - Energy & Transportation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0&fe...
Convincing arguments:
Tony Seba: Clean Disruption - Energy & Transportation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0&fe...
Edited by RayTay on Thursday 23 November 17:05
Tipping point depends on
a) Legislation enabling self drive.
b) Ongoing reduced cost of energy storage,
c) Ongoing reduction in the cost of solar (renewables?), and it's increased uptake.
I also wonder if the idea that individual ownership will die is a valid one. I think there might be an argument that says uptake of a technology means owning it. Many of the technologies he cited seemed to me to be based on individual ownership. (tablet, phones, laptops, colour TV, etc etc).
Interesting presentation, and food for thought if nothing else.
Thanks for posting
a) Legislation enabling self drive.
b) Ongoing reduced cost of energy storage,
c) Ongoing reduction in the cost of solar (renewables?), and it's increased uptake.
I also wonder if the idea that individual ownership will die is a valid one. I think there might be an argument that says uptake of a technology means owning it. Many of the technologies he cited seemed to me to be based on individual ownership. (tablet, phones, laptops, colour TV, etc etc).
Interesting presentation, and food for thought if nothing else.
Thanks for posting
modeller said:
April 2020 when BIK drops to 2% for EVs.
That's quite an interesting volte-face from the government which I hadn't picked up on.Previously I thought the BIK for 100% electric cars were on an escalator increasing from 9% to 13% and then 16%.
So for the government to decide to revert to a much lower rate of 2% is actually quite a change.
REALIST123 said:
modeller said:
April 2020 when BIK drops to 2% for EVs.
Though that is clearly a big driver behind the purchase of EVs, only about 4% of vehicles on UK roads are subject to BIK taxes.
Why is everyone so obsessed with reducing how much tax they pay?
EddieSteadyGo said:
modeller said:
April 2020 when BIK drops to 2% for EVs.
That's quite an interesting volte-face from the government which I hadn't picked up on.Previously I thought the BIK for 100% electric cars were on an escalator increasing from 9% to 13% and then 16%.
So for the government to decide to revert to a much lower rate of 2% is actually quite a change.
Yes but as said, it affects a small percentage of users. It's not going to be a game changer.
The purchase of at least a PHEV is already a no brainer for most who are paying BIK.
DELETED: Comment made by a member who's account has been deleted.
You can still write off 100% of the cost of a EV against your profit in a single year. And assuming that is still the case come 2019, the way I read the rules is that you would then pay 2% BIK at your nominal tax rate for the 2020/21 tax year. I believe the BIK rates for 2019/20 though would be 16%.Hence why I was commenting on the 2% figure, as it will be a massive incentive for business owners who control whether or not they run a company car to get an EV at that point in time.
DIesel resiudals falling, especially short term 24 month PCP ones will see a lot of "renters"; many of whom were once company car users having to make some tough decisions when they want to change next time around.
Another point that will have a huge impact is the enforcement of clean air zones by local authorities over the next 3 years, just like the T Charge Oct 2017 and Ultra Low Emission Zone April 2019 in London.
Cities like Bristol, Nottingham and more will be forced to take radical action to encourage people to either change to PHEV or pure electric.
Carrot and stick, sadly probably more stick; which is going to hit people in the pocket.
Despite the username, I like performance cars as well as EV's but many people diriving diesel have short memories. Company car tax changes in April 2002 took a few years to become main stream knowledge, once they did most jumped to diesel to save money.
Pre 2002, diesel cars were mainly cheap Ford / Vauxhall white estates, rather than what we see on the roads today.
Another point that will have a huge impact is the enforcement of clean air zones by local authorities over the next 3 years, just like the T Charge Oct 2017 and Ultra Low Emission Zone April 2019 in London.
Cities like Bristol, Nottingham and more will be forced to take radical action to encourage people to either change to PHEV or pure electric.
Carrot and stick, sadly probably more stick; which is going to hit people in the pocket.
Despite the username, I like performance cars as well as EV's but many people diriving diesel have short memories. Company car tax changes in April 2002 took a few years to become main stream knowledge, once they did most jumped to diesel to save money.
Pre 2002, diesel cars were mainly cheap Ford / Vauxhall white estates, rather than what we see on the roads today.
EddieSteadyGo said:
You can still write off 100% of the cost of a EV against your profit in a single year. And assuming that is still the case come 2019, the way I read the rules is that you would then pay 2% BIK at your nominal tax rate for the 2020/21 tax year. I believe the BIK rates for 2019/20 though would be 16%.
Hence why I was commenting on the 2% figure, as it will be a massive incentive for business owners who control whether or not they run a company car to get an EV at that point in time.
Agreed, a big carrot to make business owners make a different choice.Hence why I was commenting on the 2% figure, as it will be a massive incentive for business owners who control whether or not they run a company car to get an EV at that point in time.
If you own a business and you buy an ev at the end of your tax year, maybe a Tesla, could save you £15000 to £20000 of your corporation tax bill. You'll have to pay some back when you sell it though.
Interesting graph of the uptake of Colour TV in the USA. The tipping point was 1960, Around 1970-71 the `installed base` was over black & white TVs. This graph does say it all as the sales of colour TVs took over black & white before that time - before the two lines met on the graph. During the colour TV flatline to 1960 the price of colour TVs was dropping and continued all along the line.
Expect EVs to do the same. 5 years to the tipping point is not too optimistic.
Edited by RayTay on Saturday 25th November 09:59
RayTay said:
Are there incentives to have EV charging points at company car parks? Then combined with BIK the EV charge (sorry about the pun) may be led by companies.
£300 OLEV grant per socket; i.e. £600 for double point.No BIK for employees using one from April 2018, company cars drivers already have this benefit.
EVLATECOMER said:
£300 OLEV grant per socket; i.e. £600 for double point.
No BIK for employees using one from April 2018, company cars drivers already have this benefit.
The tipping point of 5 years? I think that is about right. There is still an amazing amount of ignorance surrounding EVs - look at the comments on piston heads. The Youtube, `Fully Charged` have some nice vids explaining how EVs are more `economical to run overall` than ICE cars. If I was in the market for new car, a EV or at least a hybrid it would be. In around 10 years (I keep cars a long time), ICE cars will be excluded from many city centres, etc. No BIK for employees using one from April 2018, company cars drivers already have this benefit.
RayTay said:
EVLATECOMER said:
£300 OLEV grant per socket; i.e. £600 for double point.
No BIK for employees using one from April 2018, company cars drivers already have this benefit.
The tipping point of 5 years? I think that is about right. There is still an amazing amount of ignorance surrounding EVs - look at the comments on piston heads. The Youtube, `Fully Charged` have some nice vids explaining how EVs are more `economical to run overall` than ICE cars. If I was in the market for new car, a EV or at least a hybrid it would be. In around 10 years (I keep cars a long time), ICE cars will be excluded from many city centres, etc. No BIK for employees using one from April 2018, company cars drivers already have this benefit.
There are still millions who don't live in and never drive in Cities.
There are many EVs that are significantly more expensive to run than equivalently sized ICE cars. We don't all want to run around in tiny boxes.
Feel free to buy whatever you like. I'll stick with my choice until there's a competitive EV for me. There isn't yet.
Five years is a long time in the life of new things these days
There are manufacturers that haven’t launched their first EVs yet and even many early entrants are only onto titivated versions of their first effort
I don’t think EV will be the natural choice for every car buyer in the uk in 5 years, but it will be for a much larger percentage than it is today.
I would not be surprised if 50% of new cars registered in Nov 2022 are EV
There are manufacturers that haven’t launched their first EVs yet and even many early entrants are only onto titivated versions of their first effort
I don’t think EV will be the natural choice for every car buyer in the uk in 5 years, but it will be for a much larger percentage than it is today.
I would not be surprised if 50% of new cars registered in Nov 2022 are EV
Gassing Station | EV and Alternative Fuels | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff