Speeding causes 3x as many deaths as previously thought...

Speeding causes 3x as many deaths as previously thought...

Author
Discussion

vonhosen

40,198 posts

216 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
quotequote all
gottans said:
As they say..

Lies, damn lies and statistics.
For fatalities it will be as a result of very detailed investigations.
The less serious, the less detailed the investigation.

NMNeil

5,860 posts

49 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
quotequote all
Mmmmm.
Just about to introduce the mandated speed limiters on new cars.
Pushback from motoring organizations and a couple of MP's.
Now introduce some statistics and parry with "But look how many lives the speed limiters will save"
All a bit obvious for us cynics.

"Statistics can prove anything, sometimes even the truth"

Attributed to Voltaire.

anonymous-user

53 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
quotequote all
vonhosen said:
gottans said:
As they say..

Lies, damn lies and statistics.
For fatalities it will be as a result of very detailed investigations.
I have read a little bit of twitter feed and if the definition of speeding is 'too fast for the conditions' then this is a subjective assessment and needs to be considered in combination with the ability of the driver for the driver to be judged to be going to fast for the conditions.

If multiple drivers manage to make the same manouvre successfully but one doesn't when driven under the same conditions, only the unsuccessful driver gets investigated and potentially identified as going too fast for the conditions. In reality it is driver ability/vehicle condition that is the cause not speeding but it looks like speeding as the incident is assessed in isolation.

As I said lies, damn lies and statistics. I am not saying the approach is wrong but at the very least the limitations of the methods used need to be stated and caveated. Doubt it will be as it doesn't fit in with the general anti-speed agenda.

vonhosen

40,198 posts

216 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
quotequote all
gottans said:
vonhosen said:
gottans said:
As they say..

Lies, damn lies and statistics.
For fatalities it will be as a result of very detailed investigations.
I have read a little bit of twitter feed and if the definition of speeding is 'too fast for the conditions' then this is a subjective assessment and needs to be considered in combination with the ability of the driver for the driver to be judged to be going to fast for the conditions.

If multiple drivers manage to make the same manouvre successfully but one doesn't when driven under the same conditions, only the unsuccessful driver gets investigated and potentially identified as going too fast for the conditions. In reality it is driver ability/vehicle condition that is the cause not speeding but it looks like speeding as the incident is assessed in isolation.

As I said lies, damn lies and statistics. I am not saying the approach is wrong but at the very least the limitations of the methods used need to be stated and caveated. Doubt it will be as it doesn't fit in with the general anti-speed agenda.
Well of course.
They are investigating the cause of the accident, not driving in non accidents.
So it will include whether the individual driver's choice of speed at the time (as well as any other factors) was a contributory factor in the collision happening.
We should always be driving so that we can stop in the distance we can see to be clear (& reasonably expect to remain so) on our side of the road.
Road, weather, vehicle, our alertness etc are what we should also be considering when we manage that with our choice of speed. Where there is evidence that we haven't managed that it should rightly be recorded as including excessive speed for the circumstances as a contributory factor in the collision happening.

As an aside, people can of course be found guilty of excessive speed for the circumstances (through s2 or s3 RTA 1988) in the absence of a collision.

Super Sonic

4,518 posts

53 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
quotequote all
Surely most collisions are caused by excessive speed. This a completely different thing to exceeding the speed limit however.

Chrisgr31

13,440 posts

254 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
quotequote all
Super Sonic said:
Surely most collisions are caused by excessive speed. This a completely different thing to exceeding the speed limit however.
Doesnt that depend on the circumstances. I drive round a corner at 60mph leave the road hit a tree and kill myself. Is it excessive speed or is it me driving beyond my ability or the ability of my car? What if 99.9% of traffic goes round that corner at 60mph and its only me that crashes?

vonhosen

40,198 posts

216 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
quotequote all
Super Sonic said:
Surely most collisions are caused by excessive speed. This a completely different thing to exceeding the speed limit however.
Well under the old STATS19 excessive speed for the circumstances was a contributory factor in 9% of fatality collisions.
It appears that the proposed change is that the point at which that is recorded is at a later date, when the investigation is completed, rather than at the scene. That seems a sensible decision, if we want a more accurate assessment of how contributory factors actually play a part (& that's for all contributory factors not just speed).

It seems that the early evidence (using the more thorough investigative process) suggests the percentage of accidents with excessive speed/speeding as a contributory factor are much higher than was attributed under the old (less thorough) process. But even then it isn't anywhere close to the 100% some are claiming here.

105.4

4,065 posts

70 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
quotequote all
That’s odd, because I’ve lost count of the number of times I’ve traveled at 150mph+ and to the best of my knowledge, I haven’t died once.

Oceanrower

908 posts

111 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
quotequote all
105.4 said:
That’s odd, because I’ve lost count of the number of times I’ve traveled at 150mph+ and to the best of my knowledge, I haven’t died once.
yesyes

vonhosen

40,198 posts

216 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
quotequote all
105.4 said:
That’s odd, because I’ve lost count of the number of times I’ve traveled at 150mph+ and to the best of my knowledge, I haven’t died once.
Why is that odd?
(in respect of the current thread)

anonymous-user

53 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
quotequote all
105.4 said:
That’s odd, because I’ve lost count of the number of times I’ve traveled at 150mph+ and to the best of my knowledge, I haven’t died once.
Flying doesn't count smile

anonymous-user

53 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
quotequote all
vonhosen said:
gottans said:
vonhosen said:
gottans said:
As they say..

Lies, damn lies and statistics.
For fatalities it will be as a result of very detailed investigations.
I have read a little bit of twitter feed and if the definition of speeding is 'too fast for the conditions' then this is a subjective assessment and needs to be considered in combination with the ability of the driver for the driver to be judged to be going to fast for the conditions.

If multiple drivers manage to make the same manouvre successfully but one doesn't when driven under the same conditions, only the unsuccessful driver gets investigated and potentially identified as going too fast for the conditions. In reality it is driver ability/vehicle condition that is the cause not speeding but it looks like speeding as the incident is assessed in isolation.

As I said lies, damn lies and statistics. I am not saying the approach is wrong but at the very least the limitations of the methods used need to be stated and caveated. Doubt it will be as it doesn't fit in with the general anti-speed agenda.
Well of course.
They are investigating the cause of the accident, not driving in non accidents.
So it will include whether the individual driver's choice of speed at the time (as well as any other factors) was a contributory factor in the collision happening.
We should always be driving so that we can stop in the distance we can see to be clear (& reasonably expect to remain so) on our side of the road.
Road, weather, vehicle, our alertness etc are what we should also be considering when we manage that with our choice of speed. Where there is evidence that we haven't managed that it should rightly be recorded as including excessive speed for the circumstances as a contributory factor in the collision happening.

As an aside, people can of course be found guilty of excessive speed for the circumstances (through s2 or s3 RTA 1988) in the absence of a collision.
That all makes sense but it still doesn't take account of the drivers ability so any determination of 'too fast for the conditions' is fatally flawed and meaningless or is the working assumption the lowest driving ability is assumed which makes a 'too fast for the conditions' conclusion inevitable and still meaningless. The end result is an over-estimation of the contribution speed has to the accident cause irrespective of when the conclusion reached.

Is driver ability taken into account during the RTA investigation?


vonhosen

40,198 posts

216 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
quotequote all
gottans said:
vonhosen said:
gottans said:
vonhosen said:
gottans said:
As they say..

Lies, damn lies and statistics.
For fatalities it will be as a result of very detailed investigations.
I have read a little bit of twitter feed and if the definition of speeding is 'too fast for the conditions' then this is a subjective assessment and needs to be considered in combination with the ability of the driver for the driver to be judged to be going to fast for the conditions.

If multiple drivers manage to make the same manouvre successfully but one doesn't when driven under the same conditions, only the unsuccessful driver gets investigated and potentially identified as going too fast for the conditions. In reality it is driver ability/vehicle condition that is the cause not speeding but it looks like speeding as the incident is assessed in isolation.

As I said lies, damn lies and statistics. I am not saying the approach is wrong but at the very least the limitations of the methods used need to be stated and caveated. Doubt it will be as it doesn't fit in with the general anti-speed agenda.
Well of course.
They are investigating the cause of the accident, not driving in non accidents.
So it will include whether the individual driver's choice of speed at the time (as well as any other factors) was a contributory factor in the collision happening.
We should always be driving so that we can stop in the distance we can see to be clear (& reasonably expect to remain so) on our side of the road.
Road, weather, vehicle, our alertness etc are what we should also be considering when we manage that with our choice of speed. Where there is evidence that we haven't managed that it should rightly be recorded as including excessive speed for the circumstances as a contributory factor in the collision happening.

As an aside, people can of course be found guilty of excessive speed for the circumstances (through s2 or s3 RTA 1988) in the absence of a collision.
That all makes sense but it still doesn't take account of the drivers ability so any determination of 'too fast for the conditions' is fatally flawed and meaningless or is the working assumption the lowest driving ability is assumed which makes a 'too fast for the conditions' conclusion inevitable and still meaningless. The end result is an over-estimation of the contribution speed has to the accident cause irrespective of when the conclusion reached.

Is driver ability taken into account during the RTA investigation?
Failing extreme conditions (which of course can occur & there'd be evidence of in an investigation), If you couldn't stop in the distance you could see to be clear (& reasonably expect to remain so), on your side of the road.
Then there is a good chance you were demonstrably driving too fast for the conditions, irrespective of how good one might think they are.
It would be a failure in respect of the most basic tenant of safe driving.

anonymous-user

53 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
quotequote all
heebeegeetee said:
That tweet reads: Below is a major change that will have an impact far beyond police investigations. Speeding is the major contributory factor in fatal crashes. We must end speeding drivers complacency and make them all realise the consequences of speeding can happen to them.

The greater the speed going into a crash, the more severe the outcome. I doubt many people would argue against that.

But that isn’t the same as saying that greater speed is a cause of crashes. If that were true there would be many many more crashes per mile on our motorways than on our urban residential roads.

Of course, excessive speed for the conditions may often be a contributing factor to a crash, but assessing how great a factor it is (5%? 40%? 90%) is an inexact science, and more a question of judgement where two people could easily have conflicting views both of which fall within a range of reasonable views.

TL; DR: the war on speed continues unabated.

motco

15,919 posts

245 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
quotequote all
Super Sonic said:
Surely most collisions are caused by excessive speed. This a completely different thing to exceeding the speed limit however.
Well had you been travelling 25% slower you wouldn't have been there at the time the conditions of traffic etc., conspired to allow an accident. Equally, had you been going 25% faster you would have been past the accident site at the time. I am not being flippant, but only a single vehicle event would not be dependent on a simultaneity of several micro-events.

motco

15,919 posts

245 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
quotequote all
vonhosen said:
Well under the old STATS19 excessive speed for the circumstances was a contributory factor in 9% of fatality collisions.
It appears that the proposed change is that the point at which that is recorded is at a later date, when the investigation is completed, rather than at the scene. That seems a sensible decision, if we want a more accurate assessment of how contributory factors actually play a part (& that's for all contributory factors not just speed).

It seems that the early evidence (using the more thorough investigative process) suggests the percentage of accidents with excessive speed/speeding as a contributory factor are much higher than was attributed under the old (less thorough) process. But even then it isn't anywhere close to the 100% some are claiming here.
There's a big difference between the thread title "Speeding causes..." and your "...as a contributory factor." I have considerable difficulty arguing against your statement whilst the title's claim is simplistic in the extreme.

jm doc

2,776 posts

231 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
quotequote all
vonhosen said:
motco said:
vonhosen said:
Seems a sensible move to record contributory outcomes following the full investigation rather than on the basis of what was only available initially at the scene.
Of course, but you more than most know that there's almost never a single cause. A cascade of events might result from one act of incompetence and excessive speed may be an element of that incompetence.

I was almost wiped out by an Audi R8 travelling on the wrong side of two islands on a single carriageway 'A' road in a 40mph section between 50mph sections. The driver was obviously speeding but it was impatience and disregard for the rule of 'keep left' more than the speed that were the major factors. The collision, had it occurred, would have been catastrophic entirely because of the energy of a couple of tonnes travelling at a closing speed of >100mph with another two tonne hunk of metal. Luckily I was able to bring my speed down from 40 to 30 and avert the collision. I have footage complete with GPS data on disc but the police were unable to act because two weeks had passed before my video reached the correct desk.
But that's the thing about choice of speed, it is the one thing that when coupled with other mistakes will largely effect the severity of outcome & why governments around the world seek to impose restrictions on its' use depending on road types/locations everything because they are governments.

Fixed that for you thumbup

vonhosen

40,198 posts

216 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
quotequote all
motco said:
vonhosen said:
Well under the old STATS19 excessive speed for the circumstances was a contributory factor in 9% of fatality collisions.
It appears that the proposed change is that the point at which that is recorded is at a later date, when the investigation is completed, rather than at the scene. That seems a sensible decision, if we want a more accurate assessment of how contributory factors actually play a part (& that's for all contributory factors not just speed).

It seems that the early evidence (using the more thorough investigative process) suggests the percentage of accidents with excessive speed/speeding as a contributory factor are much higher than was attributed under the old (less thorough) process. But even then it isn't anywhere close to the 100% some are claiming here.
There's a big difference between the thread title "Speeding causes..." and your "...as a contributory factor." I have considerable difficulty arguing against your statement whilst the title's claim is simplistic in the extreme.
The stats look at the presence of 'contributory factors' in accidents happening.
Under the old STATS19 you could attribute (up to) 6 contributory factors in any collision & rank them in order of the part they played (from a list of 78 potential contributory factors).

Dingu

3,686 posts

29 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
quotequote all
motco said:
There's a big difference between the thread title "Speeding causes..." and your "...as a contributory factor." I have considerable difficulty arguing against your statement whilst the title's claim is simplistic in the extreme.
The issue with blindly believing the click bait title Ops often seem to like using.

jm doc

2,776 posts

231 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
quotequote all
Since speed limits have been massively reduced everywhere on virtually every non-motorway road, it stands to reason that the number of accidents where people are exceeding the speed limit will increase.