Where to go for best odds on US election?

[Partyvan]

Hi all,

I want to stick some money on the election. I can see odds at the bookies on various sites, but I've read about bet exchanges as a potential source of lower comission / better odds? Are they worthwhile?

Advice welcome

Thanks

[BlackLabel]

Betfair exchange - good odds, great liquidity so can get out of your position quickly if you want to or lock in a profit etc, and extremely well established too so your money is ring-fenced/safe (assuming you pick the winner

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/mar...

Edited by BlackLabel on Friday 11th September 15:29

[Previous]

....come on...you have to tell us who you're backing after a post like that !

[Partyvan]

BlackLabel said:

Betfair exchange - good odds, great liquidity so can get out of your position quickly if you want to or lock in a profit etc, and extremely well established too so your money is ring-fenced/safe (assuming you pick the winner

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/mar...

Thankyou very much!

Previous said:

....come on...you have to tell us who you're backing after a post like that !

Well, a little history first:

I believe strongly in reticence for people to admit they are voting right wing. Brexit went against the polls, just like the Boris landslide did. I won thousands on both. Trump is now exceptionally difficult for people to admit they will vote for. So I expect the polls are significantly wrong on Trump. He won in 2016 with a 4% defecit in the polls. He's now got an 8% defecit in the polls but is a much, much more "toxic" brand now. I think he might win if the defecit drops just a touch.

If the poll defecit is over 6% I'll bet Biden. If it's under 6% I'll bet on Trump.

[anonymous-user]

Partyvan said:

Well, a little history first:

I believe strongly in reticence for people to admit they are voting right wing. Brexit went against the polls, just like the Boris landslide did. I won thousands on both. Trump is now exceptionally difficult for people to admit they will vote for. So I expect the polls are significantly wrong on Trump. He won in 2016 with a 4% defecit in the polls. He's now got an 8% defecit in the polls but is a much, much more "toxic" brand now. I think he might win if the defecit drops just a touch.

If the poll defecit is over 6% I'll bet Biden. If it's under 6% I'll bet on Trump.

I agree with you, I personally think Trump is going to win. As you say, people don't want to admit they are voting right wing, especially in these woke times. The woke people will also tend to be the most vocal, especially when it comes to social media and tend to try and shame anyone who is right wing.

It is easy to believe that the left, woke voters are in the majority as they are so vocal, but the right wing voters will outnumber them when it actually comes down to voting.

[Murph7355]

Partyvan said:

Well, a little history first:

I believe strongly in reticence for people to admit they are voting right wing. Brexit went against the polls, just like the Boris landslide did. I won thousands on both. Trump is now exceptionally difficult for people to admit they will vote for. So I expect the polls are significantly wrong on Trump. He won in 2016 with a 4% defecit in the polls. He's now got an 8% defecit in the polls but is a much, much more "toxic" brand now. I think he might win if the defecit drops just a touch.

If the poll defecit is over 6% I'll bet Biden. If it's under 6% I'll bet on Trump.

Wouldn't his brand being increasingly toxic suggest that more people might be less inclined to say they'd vote for him...so a larger deficit could still see him in power? And make the odds more fruity?

[QuartzDad]

Partyvan said:

Hi all,

I want to stick some money on the election. I can see odds at the bookies on various sites, but I've read about bet exchanges as a potential source of lower comission / better odds? Are they worthwhile?

Thanks

Fractionally better odds at never-heard-of-them VBet over BF exchange currently.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/u...

A tenner on Dwayne Johnson at 979/1 sounds like a winner.

[RDMcG]

The popularity polls are irrelevant. The six swing states will decide the elections the rest can be assumed already..i.e. California (D) Alabama (R) With postal voting the results may taker a while

[Murph7355]

If you listen to social media, those odds don't look that great.

[Partyvan]

Joey Deacon said:

I agree with you, I personally think Trump is going to win. As you say, people don't want to admit they are voting right wing, especially in these woke times. The woke people will also tend to be the most vocal, especially when it comes to social media and tend to try and shame anyone who is right wing.

It is easy to believe that the left, woke voters are in the majority as they are so vocal, but the right wing voters will outnumber them when it actually comes down to voting.

The silent majority.

Murph7355 said:

Wouldn't his brand being increasingly toxic suggest that more people might be less inclined to say they'd vote for him...so a larger deficit could still see him in power? And make the odds more fruity?

Exactly.

[raftom]

Partyvan said:

If the poll defecit is over 6% I'll bet Biden. If it's under 6% I'll bet on Trump.

The general polls are irrelevant. The only thing that matters is what will happen in the swing states.

[Mr_Megalomaniac]

Partyvan said:

Well, a little history first:

I believe strongly in reticence for people to admit they are voting right wing. Brexit went against the polls, just like the Boris landslide did. I won thousands on both. Trump is now exceptionally difficult for people to admit they will vote for. So I expect the polls are significantly wrong on Trump. He won in 2016 with a 4% defecit in the polls. He's now got an 8% defecit in the polls but is a much, much more "toxic" brand now. I think he might win if the defecit drops just a touch.

If the poll defecit is over 6% I'll bet Biden. If it's under 6% I'll bet on Trump.

You are partly correct. Correct in that the left-dominated media means no one voices their non-left opinions. However your timing is around 4.2 years too late I'm afraid. Had you placed a punt at the start of his campaign before his GOP nomination, I believe you'd be in for 16,000:1 odds, and have won (as many did). I checked the odds the other day and it seemed as though both Biden and Trump were even, although it changes daily, and neither represented any decent margin.
Personally, I think, especially given the blm riots, Trump will with with about a 5% lead over Biden. But don't poll me on that, especially as the night before the 2016 election a huffpost poll had Hilary leading with something like a 92% chance of winning, so I don't reckon polls are worth terribly much.

[The Moose]

Joey Deacon said:

I agree with you, I personally think Trump is going to win. As you say, people don't want to admit they are voting right wing, especially in these woke times.

Personally, I think that shows a particularly poor understanding of America and Americans!

[NMNeil]

RDMcG said:

The popularity polls are irrelevant. The six swing states will decide the elections the rest can be assumed already..i.e. California (D) Alabama (R) With postal voting the results may taker a while

I wouldn't be so sure about California.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/battered-c...
https://www.paloaltoonline.com/news/2020/05/10/cal...
https://www.hoover.org/research/california-busines...

[rxe]

Murph7355 said:

If you listen to social media, those odds don't look that great.

If you listened to social media, Magic Grandpa was going to win a landslide last year....

[OzzyR1]

Can anyone remember the name of the (allegedly) US based PH-er who aggressively shouted down all forum posts in the run-up to the last US election if it was suggested that Trump might win or even had a chance?? They seemed to live on here at one point - 50+ posts a day on a single topic.

If I recall correctly, they never posted again after the result came out and Trump won - under that forum handle at least.

[glazbagun]

Partyvan said:

Well, a little history first:

I believe strongly in reticence for people to admit they are voting right wing. Brexit went against the polls, just like the Boris landslide did. I won thousands on both. Trump is now exceptionally difficult for people to admit they will vote for. So I expect the polls are significantly wrong on Trump. He won in 2016 with a 4% defecit in the polls. He's now got an 8% defecit in the polls but is a much, much more "toxic" brand now. I think he might win if the defecit drops just a touch.

If the poll defecit is over 6% I'll bet Biden. If it's under 6% I'll bet on Trump.

When Lewis threw Rosberg his hat, I said that Nico would win the next year. I also thought Trump would win near the end of his run to the nomination. I was less sure about Leicester winning the league, but can you imagine having that as an accumulator!?

[London424]

OzzyR1 said:

Can anyone remember the name of the (allegedly) US based PH-er who aggressively shouted down all forum posts in the run-up to the last US election if it was suggested that Trump might win or even had a chance?? They seemed to live on here at one point - 50+ posts a day on a single topic.

If I recall correctly, they never posted again after the result came out and Trump won - under that forum handle at least.

Pretty sure that was ‘unrepentant’. He’s still around I’m pretty sure.

[OzzyR1]

London424 said:

OzzyR1 said:

Can anyone remember the name of the (allegedly) US based PH-er who aggressively shouted down all forum posts in the run-up to the last US election if it was suggested that Trump might win or even had a chance?? They seemed to live on here at one point - 50+ posts a day on a single topic.

If I recall correctly, they never posted again after the result came out and Trump won - under that forum handle at least.

Pretty sure that was ‘unrepentant’. He’s still around I’m pretty sure.

Just looked that up and think you are correct.

Checked the history, that username had 1,000+ posts relating to the US election in the run-up the vote, over 300 in the last couple of weeks alone.

The 2 months after, zero posts.

[dvs_dave]

London424 said:

OzzyR1 said:

Can anyone remember the name of the (allegedly) US based PH-er who aggressively shouted down all forum posts in the run-up to the last US election if it was suggested that Trump might win or even had a chance?? They seemed to live on here at one point - 50+ posts a day on a single topic.

If I recall correctly, they never posted again after the result came out and Trump won - under that forum handle at least.

Pretty sure that was ‘unrepentant’. He’s still around I’m pretty sure.

Unrepentant is a real person and still around. Supposedly a Brit expat JLR salesman out of Indiana if memory serves correctly.

5ohmustang was as you suggest, but fiercely pro Trump. Supposedly he was from Preston but now based out of a log cabin in West Virginia or somewhere. Pretty sure he was a Russian troll bot as his story was very questionable and he vanished immediately after the election. No gloating, no I told you so, literally nothing. The account went dead.

Edited by dvs_dave on Saturday 12th September 01:56