Hong kong protests - Huge

[Jimbeaux]

Tens of thousands? This is why the Chinese need a larger military, to keep their own people in line. They seem surprised that only vetted canidates are allowed to run for Hong Kong office. Who will admit to believing that Hong Kong would be allowed to "do their own thing"?

http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/28/world/asia/china-hon...

[davepoth]

Jimbeaux said:

Tens of thousands? This is why the Chinese need a larger military, to keep their own people in line. They seem surprised that only vetted canidates are allowed to run for Hong Kong office. Who will admit to believing that Hong Kong would be allowed to "do their own thing"?

http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/28/world/asia/china-hon...

They aren't surprised. They're acting surprised. Two entirely different things.

China doesn't want a pluralist democracy in a Special Administrative Region of China, because it'll be much harder to hide than the massacre in Tienanmen Square all those years ago. If they say to Hong Kong "All right then, elect who you like", you can guarantee it won't be a Communist, and that won't go unnoticed on the mainland. There's a lot more dissent there than we ever see, it's just that China keeps a tight lid on it.

[Killer2005]

IIRC one of the parts of the deal that meant Hong Kong going back to Chinese control was that they would be able to have free and fair elections.

[Jimbeaux]

davepoth said:

Jimbeaux said:

Tens of thousands? This is why the Chinese need a larger military, to keep their own people in line. They seem surprised that only vetted canidates are allowed to run for Hong Kong office. Who will admit to believing that Hong Kong would be allowed to "do their own thing"?

http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/28/world/asia/china-hon...

They aren't surprised. They're acting surprised. Two entirely different things.

China doesn't want a pluralist democracy in a Special Administrative Region of China, because it'll be much harder to hide than the massacre in Tienanmen Square all those years ago. If they say to Hong Kong "All right then, elect who you like", you can guarantee it won't be a Communist, and that won't go unnoticed on the mainland. There's a lot more dissent there than we ever see, it's just that China keeps a tight lid on it.

Agreed. China has far more internal ethnic and ideological divisions than anyone can imagine, the military has its hands increasingly full keeping order.

[Jimbeaux]

Killer2005 said:

IIRC one of the parts of the deal that meant Hong Kong going back to Chinese control was that they would be able to have free and fair elections.

I am sure it was; did you expect that to really happen though?

[JensenA]

Jimbeaux said:

Killer2005 said:

IIRC one of the parts of the deal that meant Hong Kong going back to Chinese control was that they would be able to have free and fair elections.

I am sure it was; did you expect that to really happen though?

They will be - It depends who decides what the definition off"free and fair" is.

[strudel]

Jimbeaux said:

This is why the Chinese need a larger military, to keep their own people in line.

Does the government not serve the people? If tens of thousands are protesting, that to me implies there may be a little grievance requiring listening to. Not oppressing.

[BrassMan]

strudel said:

Jimbeaux said:

This is why the Chinese need a larger military, to keep their own people in line.

Does the government not serve the people? If tens of thousands are protesting, that to me implies there may be a little grievance requiring listening to. Not oppressing.

Population 7, 234, 800. That's a very small percentage.

[CrutyRammers]

strudel said:

Does the government not serve the people? If tens of thousands are protesting, that to me implies there may be a little grievance requiring listening to. Not oppressing.

In China? I don't think so.

[AA999]

To be an effective government you need to have effective control over the population and land.
The students are playing a dangerous game in my opinion.

[fido]

AA999 said:

The students are playing a dangerous game in my opinion.

It's not just students. I was in HK two weeks ago, and many people I spoke to were not happy with the situation. Just heard this morning that one of colleagues in HK was pepper-sprayed coming out of the airport and is taking a few days off to recover! I do sympathise with them - especially those who've spent the last few decades making the place what it is today.

Edited by fido on Monday 29th September 11:42

[davepoth]

Here's how it's being reported in Chinese news. Seriously, this is it. I just checked and this is the only article about it on the biggest news website.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014-09/29...

Xinhua said:

HK cancels National Day fireworks display
English.news.cn 2014-09-29 17:12:42 (More)

HONG KONG, Sept. 29 (Xinhua) -- The Hong Kong government Monday announced cancellation of National Day fireworks on Oct. 1.

The government said, in view of the latest situation, it is anticipated that main access roads leading to hot spots for viewing the fireworks display may continue to be seriously affected.

Having regard to public transport arrangements and public safety considerations, the National Day Fireworks Display originally scheduled at Victoria Harbor on Oct. 1 at 8 p.m. local time will be canceled.

Protests have been taking place in various areas in Hong Kong, occupying some of the main roads. Protesters called for the withdrawal of the decision on Hong Kong's constitutional development made on Aug. 31 by the National People's Congress Standing Committee.

[Chimune]

So hows this gonna end ?
I cant see China giving in, but they wont be sending the army / tanks in either. So how can it be resolved ?

[anonymous-user]

Chimune said:

So hows this gonna end ?
I cant see China giving in, but they wont be sending the army / tanks in either. So how can it be resolved ?

Give it back to us?

[davepoth]

garyhun said:

Chimune said:

So hows this gonna end ?
I cant see China giving in, but they wont be sending the army / tanks in either. So how can it be resolved ?

Give it back to us?

I think it will be tanks. They won't give in, and there's no chance of increasing autonomy.

[Zod]

davepoth said:

I think it will tanks. They won't give in, and there's no chance of increasing autonomy.

Send in tanks and they'll kill the golden goose. HK's financial prosperity will not survive a military crackdown.

[anonymous-user]

davepoth said:

garyhun said:

Chimune said:

So hows this gonna end ?
I cant see China giving in, but they wont be sending the army / tanks in either. So how can it be resolved ?

Give it back to us?

I think it will be tanks. They won't give in, and there's no chance of increasing autonomy.

Sadly I think you are probably right.

[davepoth]

Zod said:

davepoth said:

I think it will tanks. They won't give in, and there's no chance of increasing autonomy.

Send in tanks and they'll kill the golden goose. HK's financial prosperity will not survive a military crackdown.

China's political system won't survive a true democracy in HK. In a choice between the two, I know what China will choose.

[FredClogs]

I've got family in Hong Kong. My brother in law has said this has been coming for a long time, it's been a mexican standoff since 1997 and it's not just Hong Kong, people in Shenzhen, Guanzhou and Shanghai are starting to question quite were the balance of power now lies in China, the government have to find a way to solve this diplomatically, their simply isn't enough tanks in the world to deal with the Chinese population once they get politically mobilised. I'm pretty sure Beijing are well aware of this and have been strategising for some time.

[davepoth]

FredClogs said:

I've got family in Hong Kong. My brother in law has said this has been coming for a long time, it's been a mexican standoff since 1997 and it's not just Hong Kong, people in Shenzhen, Guanzhou and Shanghai are starting to question quite were the balance of power now lies in China, the government have to find a way to solve this diplomatically, their simply isn't enough tanks in the world to deal with the Chinese population once they get politically mobilised. I'm pretty sure Beijing are well aware of this and have been strategising for some time.

I wonder whether Beijing still thinks like it did in the 1980s, in regards to political protest. I think the difference here compared to Tienanmen Square is that they won't be able to hush it up. I guess the test will be whether any unrest erupts elsewhere in China as a result.