Lotus:- The End?
Discussion
C1RVY said:
TheLastPost said:
Unfortunately, it seems to be becoming ever more apparent that the Elise generation of cars were a momentary flash of brilliance that halted an otherwise inevitable decline. They simply haven't been able to come up with anything remotely as appealing as a follow up: it was the proverbial tough act to follow. 
It's a pity they had to can the M250, as I thought it was a lot more exciting than the Europa and Evora.
What about this latest Exige??It's a pity they had to can the M250, as I thought it was a lot more exciting than the Europa and Evora.
Autocar reckon its the best car currently on sale.
Look, it may well be a very nice car, but at £60+K will it ever actually sell in the required numbers?
and it would help if they could actually make them.
M250 was the turning point, having had the massive hit the Elise was, that was the time to come up with the next car, and I still think the M250 with a bit more work was it.
What we got was 10+ years of pissing about and hemorrhaging money on stupid s
t, followed by the Evora - a car designed by marketing muppets rather than what people will actually BUY.If Lotus are to survive as they are, they need DBR to pay off the suppliers NOW, and get the production lines moving to at least fill the orders they have.
if this carries on for another month, then I think it's all over.
C1RVY said:
The new Exige is £50k plus, & at that level it remarkable value next to its competitors.
I note with interest that after decades of financial malaise at Lotus, you think there's only a month left.......WOW!
don't think they have ever been in this position before with so much outstanding to so many suppliers.I note with interest that after decades of financial malaise at Lotus, you think there's only a month left.......WOW!
they have lost any good-will they had in the past, and that will actually costs them a lot in real money (cashflow)
totally agree ... that's the story in a nutshell.
Scuffers said:
What we got was 10+ years of pissing about and hemorrhaging money on stupid st, followed by the Evora - a car designed by marketing muppets rather than what people will actually BUY.
If Lotus are to survive as they are, they need DBR to pay off the suppliers NOW, and get the production lines moving to at least fill the orders they have.
t, followed by the Evora - a car designed by marketing muppets rather than what people will actually BUY.If Lotus are to survive as they are, they need DBR to pay off the suppliers NOW, and get the production lines moving to at least fill the orders they have.
RYH64E said:
£45m turnover will be roughly 1100 cars @ an average of £40k each, from what I see here http://skiddmark.com/2012/10/is-drb-hicom-fiddling... UK dealer sales are a lot less than that (120 quoted for 2012). So not triple 2012 production, but upping to 3300 cars/year without any increase in overheads.
I assume that £45m figure is for the whole of Group Lotus and will be largely income from Engineering consultancy? I don't think their foreign sales are significantly better than their UK figures.RYH64E said:
The problem at Lotus isn't what is usually understood by 'cashflow', which is usually caused by over expansion increasing supplier bills before slow paying customer cash is received, in this case cashflow means they are spending far more cash than their sales can sustain - making a stonking great loss in other words. And as they would appear not to be paying their suppliers...
this pretty much sums it up unfortunately.The independent drew 3 quotes from an internal document which is from August. They were:
Many businesses have bad months. A loss is a loss. The document - or at least the quotes from it - don't speak about forward orders, especially of consulting services, or projections from the sales pipeline. The numbers are bad, but they have no context. Of course, if Lotus have net cash outflow of £23m per month then the residual £70m from the loan agreements, even if it were forthcoming, would keep them going for only 3 months. The document was from August, so that would give them a month to live.
We also don't know gross margins fro the different divisions. It doesn't seem unreasonable to imagine that gross margins on consultancy would be rather healthier than on cars, especially if much of the overhead is paying for surplus capacity. So what are the prospects for Engineering? I don't see how there is any evidence that Lotus need to triple sales in order to break even.
Has anyone asked Mike Kimberley what to do? It was a huge shame that he had to leave for medical reasons, but, he seems to be somewhat better now, and may at least have a view as to what is feasible.
Lotus said:
Cash flow: Critical. Overhead base is massively too high for current business, payroll bill for business is too high. Salaries top-end loaded.
Lotus]insufficient inflow to meet this month's [September said:
supplier payments and payroll
Lotus said:
NO business decision (presumably division?) can sustain its own costs or contribute towards group costs. Revenue = £45m, overheads = £35m, Cost of sale s= £33m – Loss = £23m.
So, what does that mean? First, we don't know what DRB are prepared to put in. At this point in the Bahar business plan, large negative cashflow was projected. As others have said, stopping the restructuring doesn't turn off the taps, it may just delay the recovery. How much of those overheads are associated with new models, business development, and so on?Many businesses have bad months. A loss is a loss. The document - or at least the quotes from it - don't speak about forward orders, especially of consulting services, or projections from the sales pipeline. The numbers are bad, but they have no context. Of course, if Lotus have net cash outflow of £23m per month then the residual £70m from the loan agreements, even if it were forthcoming, would keep them going for only 3 months. The document was from August, so that would give them a month to live.
We also don't know gross margins fro the different divisions. It doesn't seem unreasonable to imagine that gross margins on consultancy would be rather healthier than on cars, especially if much of the overhead is paying for surplus capacity. So what are the prospects for Engineering? I don't see how there is any evidence that Lotus need to triple sales in order to break even.
Has anyone asked Mike Kimberley what to do? It was a huge shame that he had to leave for medical reasons, but, he seems to be somewhat better now, and may at least have a view as to what is feasible.
under the circumstances his view is about as valuable as yours or mine.
skwdenyer said:
Has anyone asked Mike Kimberley what to do? It was a huge shame that he had to leave for medical reasons, but, he seems to be somewhat better now, and may at least have a view as to what is feasible.
bobo said:
under the circumstances his view is about as valuable as yours or mine.
to be fair though, his gameplan of the Evora would have failed too, just not quite on the same scale!skwdenyer said:
Has anyone asked Mike Kimberley what to do? It was a huge shame that he had to leave for medical reasons, but, he seems to be somewhat better now, and may at least have a view as to what is feasible.
bobo said:
lotus forums extend to new levels of bunkham .... this isnt scholes options pricing theory .. wtf are you on about?
I did not mean by financial instrument.1point7bar said:
There is a paradox between aspirational goods and the real new market's political
theory.
A long option on this changing is worth lots.
theory.
A long option on this changing is worth lots.
I mean the position in the company's asset management strategy.
skwdenyer said:
So, what does that mean? First, we don't know what DRB are prepared to put in. At this point in the Bahar business plan, large negative cashflow was projected. As others have said, stopping the restructuring doesn't turn off the taps, it may just delay the recovery. How much of those overheads are associated with new models, business development, and so on?
Many businesses have bad months. A loss is a loss. The document - or at least the quotes from it - don't speak about forward orders, especially of consulting services, or projections from the sales pipeline. The numbers are bad, but they have no context. Of course, if Lotus have net cash outflow of £23m per month then the residual £70m from the loan agreements, even if it were forthcoming, would keep them going for only 3 months. The document was from August, so that would give them a month to live.
.
I am a bit confused about the Lotus figures, but I don't think that the figure of £45m represented August revenue alone. This document http://corporate.proton.com/pdf/AnnualReports/Annu... (page 87) would suggest that Group turnover (cars, engineering and light weight structures) for the year ending 31st March 2011 was about £150m, revenue from cars and parts amounted to £98m with 1985 cars sold. I would suspect that sales of cars for the year ending March 2013 will be much lower, and in 2011 at least cars represented 2/3 of total revenue.Many businesses have bad months. A loss is a loss. The document - or at least the quotes from it - don't speak about forward orders, especially of consulting services, or projections from the sales pipeline. The numbers are bad, but they have no context. Of course, if Lotus have net cash outflow of £23m per month then the residual £70m from the loan agreements, even if it were forthcoming, would keep them going for only 3 months. The document was from August, so that would give them a month to live.
.
RYH64E said:
...and in 2011 at least cars represented 2/3 of total revenue.
It seems that at present cars represent virtually none of the current revenue, and the figures to date are engineering consultancy alone. The production lines were reportedly still for a big chunk of this year.Agem said:
I like Exige V6, but why not a VW 2 litre Turbo?.........Massive weight reduction & DSG gearboxes....
I don't suppose there are all that many engines which make the Toyota V6 seem especially charismatic, but that could be just the thing. Are many people buying the existing automatic Evora, I wonder? I'd have thought the kind of people who prefer an automatic to a manual would probably also prefer a Porsche to a Lotus.
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