Are Jaguar "E" types overpriced?
Discussion
The Baby Boomers are my generation - post war. I am talking of those who were in the war and wanted the cars of their generation such as the Bel Air, which has gone up and up even as that generation died. I stayed with the Heynes family for XK70 and the grandson is restoring early 1961 cars and selling them - with a three years waiting list - to none other than the people I would have thought more interested in the Escort mexicos etc; cars of the 70s, but no, these 40 year olds are buying early E-types. You can talk all you like about quantitive diseasing but in the end my generation are dying and leaving a lot of money to the kids, who in turn may well be keeping the cars or buying one. I don't know, and frankly, with no disrespect, do you. I see the logic in your argument, but passion often defies logic.
Assuming that the prices do fall, it will be interesting to see how many of the armchair experts that bemoan that "true enthusiasts" can't afford to buy them, will step forward and take ownership.
I'd guess approximately none.
My assumption is based on the fact that they didn't buy them when they were affordable the first time around
I'd guess approximately none.
My assumption is based on the fact that they didn't buy them when they were affordable the first time around
lowdrag said:
The Baby Boomers are my generation - post war. I am talking of those who were in the war and wanted the cars of their generation such as the Bel Air, which has gone up and up even as that generation died. I stayed with the Heynes family for XK70 and the grandson is restoring early 1961 cars and selling them - with a three years waiting list - to none other than the people I would have thought more interested in the Escort mexicos etc; cars of the 70s, but no, these 40 year olds are buying early E-types. You can talk all you like about quantitive diseasing but in the end my generation are dying and leaving a lot of money to the kids, who in turn may well be keeping the cars or buying one. I don't know, and frankly, with no disrespect, do you. I see the logic in your argument, but passion often defies logic.
Passion may defy logic, of not by its very definition but it does not defy economics nor reality. There are two aspects to look at from your post, first the leaving of a lot of money to their children. How many children is this money to be split among and how much tax is to be paid on it first? All of a sudden a £2m gross estate with two beneficiaries could be facing a £1m tax charge and then the split leaving £500k to each individual. That is a quartering of buying power instantly. It is a huge drop. In addition the children of the Boomers do not have pensions anywhere near as large and they carry far higher mortgage debt than the Boomers did at the point of inheriting from parents. That means that there are other essential long term priorities for that £500k ahead of purchasing a toy.
The second aspect is to look at the assets of Boomers today and question whether that individual could purchase those assets at today’s market price? This is the really key wake up factor because they can’t. Take a property worth £1m and a couple of cars worth £250k and does that owner have free and clear buying power of £1.25m to purchase at today’s prices? Well they don’t statistically. So if the wealthiest group that has ever lived can’t actually buy what they have at todays prices then those younger certainly can’t.
And this doesn’t even take into account the rapid rise in supply as all the Boomers are naturally in the same life window and all the hooha regarding the rapid rise in the death rate of Boomer celebrities is an extremely vivid display of this very strong effect.
The simple fact of economics is that the generations below don’t and won’t have the wealth to procure the assets of the Boomers at the levels/prices they are currently priced at. And if you have a personal estate that has been hugely inflated by the decade of currency debasing such as a nice family home and a couple of very nice classic cars and if you have two children of average white collar incomes and if you have not moved your assets into trust or mitigated IHT then you’ll be able to see this effect effect personally.
Passion doesn’t really have any impact on cold economic reality.
swisstoni said:
Are classic Fezzer prices affected by the vagaries of the Italian economy or generational tides?
No, because they are above all that.
Some well heeled enthusiast around the planet will have them off your hands if you decide to sell.
No asset is immune from the decade of Western QE currency debasement nor the Western post war demographic situation. This isn’t about U.K. economics. No, because they are above all that.
Some well heeled enthusiast around the planet will have them off your hands if you decide to sell.
Maybe Asia will step up and in the face of increasing Western supply of highly inflated assets and produce the demand that will match. But it isn’t as if there is much evidence to support a demand coming out of nowhere in a relatively short period of time. You only need to look at where the big global auctions are held and the people in the room to see this is a big cultural ask.
Plus, you can look at the wine market for a very fair comparison as to how the Asian money thinks and moves. If supply is increasing and values declining then Asian money doesn’t chase it or seek to underpin, it just moves away.
DonkeyApple said:
There are two aspects to look at from your post, first the leaving of a lot of money to their children. How many children is this money to be split among and how much tax is to be paid on it first? All of a sudden a £2m gross estate with two beneficiaries could be facing a £1m tax charge and then the split leaving £500k to each individual. That is a quartering of buying power instantly. It is a huge drop.
Well, not quite.You start off with a £2M pot, ~750K is tax free if you are assuming there was a couple there once upon a time. You don't have to do fancy trust fund stuff these days to be able to carry over the spouses 0 rated amount and this change was retrospective. So IHT is due on 1250K, IHT is 40% so the gubberment steal 500K not a cool mil.
Of course these days there is a good chance the older generation dying out will have split the pot across the succeeding generations. So they probably haven't left it all to their kids, and have chosen to give a boost to their grand kids chances of ever making it on to the property ladder.
a8hex said:
DonkeyApple said:
There are two aspects to look at from your post, first the leaving of a lot of money to their children. How many children is this money to be split among and how much tax is to be paid on it first? All of a sudden a £2m gross estate with two beneficiaries could be facing a £1m tax charge and then the split leaving £500k to each individual. That is a quartering of buying power instantly. It is a huge drop.
Well, not quite.You start off with a £2M pot, ~750K is tax free if you are assuming there was a couple there once upon a time. You don't have to do fancy trust fund stuff these days to be able to carry over the spouses 0 rated amount and this change was retrospective. So IHT is due on 1250K, IHT is 40% so the gubberment steal 500K not a cool mil.
Of course these days there is a good chance the older generation dying out will have split the pot across the succeeding generations. So they probably haven't left it all to their kids, and have chosen to give a boost to their grand kids chances of ever making it on to the property ladder.
But the fact is that no following generation is as wealthy as the Boomers and regardless of inheritances that doesn’t change. There isn’t the economic ability to purchase the Boomers assets at today’s market values. As highlighted, the Boomers don’t even have the wealth to buy their assets and that really does highlight the immense asset inflation of the last decade and longer in terms of property. This is just how it is and it is something that is openly discussed each and every day and the root cause of the ever growing generational divide.
LetsTryAgain said:
There are also a lot of folk in the U.K who won't be leaving their family £2k, never mind £20k, £200k or £2 mil.
There will certainly be a lot of people who won't be leaving more than 20K as that's all they'll let you keep if you need care in your old age, if you've got more than 20K in assets you'll have to pay to care for yourself.they're worth what someone will pay for them - however there's plenty around, in fact I'd say there's oversupply, and today's current prices are certain to fall once the moneyed investors realise this. Just go to any UK classic var show there's gonna be at least 10-20 E types on show, most of which have been recently restored, with modern paint which IMO looks too shiny, and no age related patina whatsoever - just new leather seats, and new dashboads and instruments etc 
When market for e types collapses then that's gonna be a good time to buy a much rarer & genuine Unmolested car with good original patina,
When that happens I may be tempted, depends how much Muira's fall in price tho'
When market for e types collapses then that's gonna be a good time to buy a much rarer & genuine Unmolested car with good original patina, When that happens I may be tempted, depends how much Muira's fall in price tho'
There is a lot of chat about general socio- economic trends on values of these cars but the truth must be that here are currently more people that want one than there are available cars. This is also driven by films and royal weddings etc. Remember too how much it costs to restore one. In that context values may even be low... certainly compared to a db5 or similar.
TooMany2cvs said:
a8hex said:
There will certainly be a lot of people who won't be leaving more than 20K as that's all they'll let you keep if you need care in your old age, if you've got more than 20K in assets you'll have to pay to care for yourself.
You say that like it's a bad thing.I have no problem with expecting people to pay their own way, but all such systems are open to gaming.
And no, I don't have an answer to this problem. The generation going through this now were promised that the state would look after them to the grave, now they find the state has been making promises it can't keep. The following generations are going to find that more and more of these promises aren't worth the manifestos they were written on.
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