The future of classic cars
Discussion
With electric only new cars planned for 2035 how do classic cars fit into this. I'm not interested in the electrifying of classic cars, I mean the long term prospects of classic cars as they stand at the moment. Will they continue to be exempt and will we continue to be able to get petrol to run them and will there be no go zones such as the city. I was in Barcelona this weekend and they have banned cars older than 2000 from entering the city during the weekdays from 7am to 7pm, What about classic car future values as a lot of us are heavily invested in them.
In the long term, the market for classic cars will shrink as they lose their utility value and become only suitable for limited or museum use. Once fuel become difficult to find or store, and the areas where you are allowed to use IC engines decrease, the actual utility of a car will cease and it will become obsolete. I have no interest in an old car I can't use. The values for everyday classics will collapse if they can't be practically used. High-end collector cars will probably avoid that fate if they remain collectable like any other valuable antique.
I think petrol will be available for a long, long time. There might not be as many filling stations as there are now, but you will still be able to get it. Enthusiasts still manage to run steam trains, road rollers and all manner of contraptions over 100 years old, so I would be happy we will still be able to.
I'm not too much concerned about this, I'd be happy to electrify my "classic" and enjoy the decreased cost and presumably environmental impact that it would have. I think hobbyists who just like a weekend tinker will end up struggling though, maybe historic vehicles will be exempt and still be allowed to run on whatever fossil fuels are available.
The lyrics of a Rush song called Red Barchetta look likely to come true:
'My uncle has a country place
That no one knows about
He says it used to be a farm
Before the Motor Law
And now on Sundays I elude the eyes
And hop the turbine freight
To far outside the wire where my
White-haired uncle waits
Jump to the ground as the turbo slows
To cross the borderline
Run like the wind as excitement shivers
Up and down my spine
But down in his barn
My uncle preserved for me
An old machine
For fifty-odd years
To keep it as new
Has been his dearest dream
I strip away the old debris
That hides a shining car
A brilliant Red Barchetta
From a better vanished time
We'll fire up the willing engine
Responding with a roar
Tires spitting gravel
I commit my weekly crime
Wind
In my hair
Shifting and drifting
Mechanical music
Adrenaline surge
Well-oiled leather
Hot…'
'My uncle has a country place
That no one knows about
He says it used to be a farm
Before the Motor Law
And now on Sundays I elude the eyes
And hop the turbine freight
To far outside the wire where my
White-haired uncle waits
Jump to the ground as the turbo slows
To cross the borderline
Run like the wind as excitement shivers
Up and down my spine
But down in his barn
My uncle preserved for me
An old machine
For fifty-odd years
To keep it as new
Has been his dearest dream
I strip away the old debris
That hides a shining car
A brilliant Red Barchetta
From a better vanished time
We'll fire up the willing engine
Responding with a roar
Tires spitting gravel
I commit my weekly crime
Wind
In my hair
Shifting and drifting
Mechanical music
Adrenaline surge
Well-oiled leather
Hot…'
1. Those in power (the people) now making the decision won't be when this date is reached
2. The infrastructure to generate the power and get it to the cars isn't suitable (at the moment)
3. In 2035 sales of fossil fuelled vehicles will probably spike as people will want to have the 'last of the line'
4. Fossil fuel stations will remain in business whilst the demand is still there, they may well change to electrical charge points and cut down on the pumps
5. Charging an electric car is currently cheaper, what do you think will happen to the cost when the Government looses all it's fossil fuel tax ?
6. Charging an electric car is only 'green' if you can guarantee the power is only coming from renewable sources
7. Mining Lithium for all these batteries is neither cheap nor environmentally friendly, plus the recycling isn't that 'green' either
8. Transporting the mined products in large 'dirty' fuelled cargo ships is not 'green', nor is shipping the cars back to market
9. Didn't we all get advised to switch to Diesel by those in power that are now saying we should switch to Electric ?
10. What ever we do as humans has an impact on the planet, some of the things that happen are part of a natural cycle (though we can speed these cycles up with our actions) all we can do is minimise our own personal impact and put pressure on those countries that are the biggest polluters, starting with those that do the most damage or pollute the most through their own inaction and inability to regulate.
I will keep on using my cars responsibly until it's not possible to do so (or I'm gone), owning older cars that have limited use is not a bad thing, in these days of colourless car parks and cars being appliances we should all appreciate what we have got and fight to preserve their use for as long as we can.
2. The infrastructure to generate the power and get it to the cars isn't suitable (at the moment)
3. In 2035 sales of fossil fuelled vehicles will probably spike as people will want to have the 'last of the line'
4. Fossil fuel stations will remain in business whilst the demand is still there, they may well change to electrical charge points and cut down on the pumps
5. Charging an electric car is currently cheaper, what do you think will happen to the cost when the Government looses all it's fossil fuel tax ?
6. Charging an electric car is only 'green' if you can guarantee the power is only coming from renewable sources
7. Mining Lithium for all these batteries is neither cheap nor environmentally friendly, plus the recycling isn't that 'green' either
8. Transporting the mined products in large 'dirty' fuelled cargo ships is not 'green', nor is shipping the cars back to market
9. Didn't we all get advised to switch to Diesel by those in power that are now saying we should switch to Electric ?
10. What ever we do as humans has an impact on the planet, some of the things that happen are part of a natural cycle (though we can speed these cycles up with our actions) all we can do is minimise our own personal impact and put pressure on those countries that are the biggest polluters, starting with those that do the most damage or pollute the most through their own inaction and inability to regulate.
I will keep on using my cars responsibly until it's not possible to do so (or I'm gone), owning older cars that have limited use is not a bad thing, in these days of colourless car parks and cars being appliances we should all appreciate what we have got and fight to preserve their use for as long as we can.
rev-erend said:
The lyrics of a Rush song called Red Barchetta look likely to come true:
….
Mr Peart (RIP) did enjoy his dystopian visions, I think.….
Sadly, I don't think he'll be too far wrong. I can see a (not too distant) future where old ICE-powered cars are pretty much seen as 'socially unacceptable'. If there is going to be a shift change with the next couple of generations I think it will come quickly - partly engineered by those in power (politics) or control the power (business) as rarely do these parties work for the populace.
I try and be as environmentally aware as possible (have done so since the late 1980s and that decades wave of environmentalism), but I don't really buy into the electric car ideology - it's still too many cars, that will still be too big and heavy... not to mention the original power source (power stations).
I'm all for being less polluting, but until we address worldwide issues of population growth and real sustainability I think it's a veneer of being 'seen to do the right thing'.
There are other factors, too - not just buying fuel. Car parts, I think, could be the big issue - I can imagine many cars will disappear as manufacturers move their productivity from ICE-based parts to other segments. The future (of the ICE car) is not bright, I think.
I don't think the issue is going to be about Classic Cars as such, nor the switch from ICE to EV, or the availability of fuel for hobbyist motorists or environmental matters.
I think the threat will simply be that manually driven vehicles, actually driving yourself, in a world of autonomous self driving vehicles, will be incompatible. The hardware/software will choreograph traffic to such a degree that junctions, roundabouts, traffic lights and rights of way, even driving on the left, will become redundant and the street furniture will be removed entirely, it will become an electronic highway with sophisticated algorithms working out the best route in concert with every other vehicle on the road too. Human beings will not be allowed to interact with it as a simple crossroads will not have traffic lights and there will be no considered right of way or even which side of the road to drive on, a large roundabout may have vehicle going around in both directions at the same time, again with no recognised right of way on or off in the choreography. Even concepts such as backwards/forwards and which way around the car is facing will be obsolete. Motorways with 3 lanes in each direction will become 6 lanes to be used in either direction as the programme sees fit to arrange coneless contraflows, so you might have five lanes North and just one lane South, but only for minutes or seconds as flow dictates. Cars will be like The Borg, and work as a collective. You won't be allowed to join in, anymore than you'd be put at the controls of not just one aeroplane, but all of them, simultaneously, today.
I think the threat will simply be that manually driven vehicles, actually driving yourself, in a world of autonomous self driving vehicles, will be incompatible. The hardware/software will choreograph traffic to such a degree that junctions, roundabouts, traffic lights and rights of way, even driving on the left, will become redundant and the street furniture will be removed entirely, it will become an electronic highway with sophisticated algorithms working out the best route in concert with every other vehicle on the road too. Human beings will not be allowed to interact with it as a simple crossroads will not have traffic lights and there will be no considered right of way or even which side of the road to drive on, a large roundabout may have vehicle going around in both directions at the same time, again with no recognised right of way on or off in the choreography. Even concepts such as backwards/forwards and which way around the car is facing will be obsolete. Motorways with 3 lanes in each direction will become 6 lanes to be used in either direction as the programme sees fit to arrange coneless contraflows, so you might have five lanes North and just one lane South, but only for minutes or seconds as flow dictates. Cars will be like The Borg, and work as a collective. You won't be allowed to join in, anymore than you'd be put at the controls of not just one aeroplane, but all of them, simultaneously, today.
21st Century Man said:
Human beings will not be allowed to interact with it as a simple crossroads will not have traffic lights and there will be no considered right of way or even which side of the road to drive on, a large roundabout may have vehicle going around in both directions at the same time, again with no recognised right of way on or off in the choreography.
Good luck with that on a narrow lane in deepest Devon or wherever, or even in most heavily built up areas in most UK cities/towns and there's not enough space to get past each other and two machines try to work which has right of way or which has to reverse into a gap or whatever.I can't see past the UK motorway network only ever being fully autonomous, a lot of our rural roads are pretty much just metalled over from the days of the horse and cart.
You only have to look at the places and test venues for this autonomous driving crap to see just how far away from it the UK will be.
It will be a larf though when some system operator has to hit 'ctrl+alt+delete' on the whole network system at some point because UK plc has penny pinched on the infrastructure, as it surely will do.
I'll be 6 foot under by then anyway.
Edited by aeropilot on Tuesday 4th February 16:28
21st Century Man said:
I don't think the issue is going to be about Classic Cars as such, nor the switch from ICE to EV, or the availability of fuel for hobbyist motorists or environmental matters.
I think the threat will simply be that manually driven vehicles, actually driving yourself, in a world of autonomous self driving vehicles, will be incompatible. The hardware/software will choreograph traffic to such a degree that junctions, roundabouts, traffic lights and rights of way, even driving on the left, will become redundant and the street furniture will be removed entirely, it will become an electronic highway with sophisticated algorithms working out the best route in concert with every other vehicle on the road too. Human beings will not be allowed to interact with it as a simple crossroads will not have traffic lights and there will be no considered right of way or even which side of the road to drive on, a large roundabout may have vehicle going around in both directions at the same time, again with no recognised right of way on or off in the choreography. Even concepts such as backwards/forwards and which way around the car is facing will be obsolete. Motorways with 3 lanes in each direction will become 6 lanes to be used in either direction as the programme sees fit to arrange coneless contraflows, so you might have five lanes North and just one lane South, but only for minutes or seconds as flow dictates. Cars will be like The Borg, and work as a collective. You won't be allowed to join in, anymore than you'd be put at the controls of not just one aeroplane, but all of them, simultaneously, today.
And then, at some point, when Skynet is ready, they'll just smash us into each other to kick off the extinction.I think the threat will simply be that manually driven vehicles, actually driving yourself, in a world of autonomous self driving vehicles, will be incompatible. The hardware/software will choreograph traffic to such a degree that junctions, roundabouts, traffic lights and rights of way, even driving on the left, will become redundant and the street furniture will be removed entirely, it will become an electronic highway with sophisticated algorithms working out the best route in concert with every other vehicle on the road too. Human beings will not be allowed to interact with it as a simple crossroads will not have traffic lights and there will be no considered right of way or even which side of the road to drive on, a large roundabout may have vehicle going around in both directions at the same time, again with no recognised right of way on or off in the choreography. Even concepts such as backwards/forwards and which way around the car is facing will be obsolete. Motorways with 3 lanes in each direction will become 6 lanes to be used in either direction as the programme sees fit to arrange coneless contraflows, so you might have five lanes North and just one lane South, but only for minutes or seconds as flow dictates. Cars will be like The Borg, and work as a collective. You won't be allowed to join in, anymore than you'd be put at the controls of not just one aeroplane, but all of them, simultaneously, today.
Petrol and combustion engined cars will still be legal to use many years from now. I always post that manual normally aspirated sporty cars will go up in value and now this makes that even more so. Electric cars will be great I am sure but the noise and satisfaction from driving a car as I've described will be sought after more than ever. The Supercars of today will soon no longer have a newer version that supercedes the last years etc. I think it's a no brainer the cars we take for granted today will be very much sought after in time. Yes they will be banned from citys but they will be used on high days and dry days for fun who would want to take one in a city anyway. With all this in mind I think classic cars will be a very good long term place to put ya money!
Jonny TVR said:
I hope you are right Kevin.
Ditto.One thing that will speed up the introduction of BEVs / autonomous vehicles will be the younger generation becoming uninterested in 'cars'.
Years of state sponsored anti car sentiment will take their toll.
The move away from ownership, to rental (of cars) will mean that the public's financial investment in their car will be merely to the end of the lease - rather than ownership (and the bearing the costs of depreciation that arises from actually purchasing a car with hard earned cash).
That being said us classic car enthusiasts MUST fight to preserve our hobby.
In a sense I feel that us (classic) car owners have a duty to exhibit at car shows..........
Thing is, our hobby depends on a certain amount of goodwill from the general public - free road tax, emissions not meeting 'current' standards, lack of 3rd party safety (ie pedestrian crumple zones) etc etc
If we hide ourselves away, so that all the general public see and hear and smell... is us 'selfishly' driving around consuming resources and polluting the environment then our hobby will be in danger of being legislated out of existence.
Attending classic car shows encourages younger generations to become aware of, and take an interest in, classic cars.
And so, for this reason I attend a few each year and am quite happy to offer parents of young children a photo opportunity of their (if well behaved, no ice-creams etc) youngsters in my car. I see it as a long term investment in the emotional development of the great British public to support my hobby of old cars.
On this basis I was driving up to Gloucester back in August to attend a car event.
Traffic came to a crawl going through Stroud.
The reason?
A Friday afternoon 'School Strike' - it was actually school holiday time but you know what I mean! Kids had camped on one of the roundabouts with banners and placards and were crossing and uncrossing the road in order that only one car at a time could pass. The idea being, of course, to 'convince' us drivers of the errors of our selfish way......
BUT, when I came into view, driving a classic car - you know an old, bright red 'racing' car compete with a loud exhaust they completely forgot their protest and were cheering and applauding - with camera phones out.
So show our cars - encourage the younger generation to take an interest and it will create an army of future enthusiasts who will help fight tooth and nail in order to preserve OUR hobby.
Biggest problem for classic car "USERS" i.e. those that want to drive affordable classics rather than show pieces that don't really move under their own steam much. Is that there won't be the available garage services except the really expensive few to keep the cars on the road.
A bit like Black Smiths for horses.
Once most of the modest enthusiasts have to say good bye to their classic rides because of cost or expertise then the parts business for classics will crash too.
So changing your classic to run EV will probably only save those owners who can afford to have body parts etc hand made by a few expensive artisans.
It won't be big brother government that kills ownership off but economics.
A bit like Black Smiths for horses.
Once most of the modest enthusiasts have to say good bye to their classic rides because of cost or expertise then the parts business for classics will crash too.
So changing your classic to run EV will probably only save those owners who can afford to have body parts etc hand made by a few expensive artisans.
It won't be big brother government that kills ownership off but economics.
We also live in an age, or will do in 20-25 years time, where it will be socially unacceptable to drive a traditional combustion engine vehicle in much the same way as it is to wear real fur now.
Imagine driving along in your 20th century classic in the year 2044 with visible exhaust fumes!
Perhaps 2044 is too soon and I'll be pushing up the daisies by then anyway but I'm sure it will begin to impact classic prices... the top end will probably be immune on the 'work of art' basis and at the bottom end there is not much financial risk but in the mid range classics, people are going to stop spending £150-500k on a car that may become worthless in their lifetime.
Imagine driving along in your 20th century classic in the year 2044 with visible exhaust fumes!
Perhaps 2044 is too soon and I'll be pushing up the daisies by then anyway but I'm sure it will begin to impact classic prices... the top end will probably be immune on the 'work of art' basis and at the bottom end there is not much financial risk but in the mid range classics, people are going to stop spending £150-500k on a car that may become worthless in their lifetime.
I don't believe it. Petrol will be available for our lawnmowers and generators for as long as the earth spins. Petrol will simply get harder to source, and be more expensive. I run my classic as a 'daily'. Most choose to fake it. For them,1000 miles max a year, or showground-mileage classics, will remain as ever. This won't stop them using them as they do now. Most won't consider 'driving' them anyway. That sort would rather grow facial-hair than drive anywhere, so where's the change?
And for the likes of me, we'll find a way. I've converted my classic to run gas, long since. It really isn't difficult. If LPG dries up, I'll run CNG.
And for the likes of me, we'll find a way. I've converted my classic to run gas, long since. It really isn't difficult. If LPG dries up, I'll run CNG.
Edited by OldDuffer on Wednesday 5th February 13:10
I do think that using ICE cars as DDs will become more and more socially unacceptable, and the vast majority of them will be scrapped. Some genuine classics will survive, and I expect there will be some sort of exemption for them to be driven. I think we are a long way from fully autonomous cars though I do except tp see far more car sharing in the future- the days of commuting cars with a single driver will decline. Further, people worldwide. are moving into dense cities and this modifies the requirement.
You wrote: I do think that using ICE cars as DDs will become more and more socially unacceptable.
I doubt that too. There's so few of us using classics daily, it's near unheard of today. Fakers in August yes, but today as I write in Feb, it's non-existent. I must be about the last.
How it becomes socially unacceptable when even less are on our roads, I can't see it.
I doubt that too. There's so few of us using classics daily, it's near unheard of today. Fakers in August yes, but today as I write in Feb, it's non-existent. I must be about the last.
How it becomes socially unacceptable when even less are on our roads, I can't see it.
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