How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

Author
Discussion

jeremyc

Original Poster:

17,710 posts

228 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
Continued from here.

ScotHill

460 posts

53 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
tonker said:
I suspect it was bought in 2012 for 1.2, 250-300 spent and sold to someone for 2.2. The 2014 sellers were smart enough not to do the basement (latest sold has had it done (at 2.5). They made out like bandits. Well done them on their timing. The 2014 buyers (so current sellers) bought at the peak. And are therefore suffering. It's not even a nice bit of Fulham. They will probably struggle to see 1.875.
But isn't it the case that the 2014 buyers would have been up on their previous sell, and the 2014 sellers would be down on their current buy, like all boats in the sea go up and down on the same tides?

FocusRS3

2,843 posts

35 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
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ScotHill said:
But isn't it the case that the 2014 buyers would have been up on their previous sell, and the 2014 sellers would be down on their current buy, like all boats in the sea go up and down on the same tides?
I guess that all depends on what area you bought in and what you bought.

New builds sell for a premium so 4yrs on you'd not get that back i'd say and I think certain areas in the S/E have flattened off in the last 18 months.

There still seems to be demand for new builds and the local councils are keen to have green belt areas developed so maybe not all gloom and doom.

Having said that the fact there are more new builds being commissioned probably adds to the 'used' market being harder to shift

Joey Deacon

1,581 posts

120 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
I have never understood why anyone would want to buy a new build, you are basically getting cardboard walls and weetbix squeeky floors with the risk of affordable housing scum next door. Add in the total lack of parking in the street once every ones children are teenagers and every house has four cars plus a tiny, overlooked garden and it seems madness to me.

Yet all the millenials at my work will only consider a brand new house (Obviously with the white, leased bottom of the range Mercedes A class on the drive)

If you try and explain that they would be better off buying a bigger, better built older house with a decent garden they look at you as if you are an idiot.

I can only assume they are not prepared to do any work to a property so are happy to pay over the odds. The trouble is it will start to look tatty in five years due to the terrible build quality and nobody prepared to do any maintenance.

tonker

56,015 posts

192 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
ScotHill said:
But isn't it the case that the 2014 buyers would have been up on their previous sell, and the 2014 sellers would be down on their current buy, like all boats in the sea go up and down on the same tides?
You’d hope if they were smart enough to make the same as 1.5m on wages in two years they could easily have bought a house in say Guildford and made another million in wages since ....

Shnozz

20,646 posts

215 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
Joey Deacon said:
I have never understood why anyone would want to buy a new build, you are basically getting cardboard walls and weetbix squeeky floors with the risk of affordable housing scum next door. Add in the total lack of parking in the street once every ones children are teenagers and every house has four cars plus a tiny, overlooked garden and it seems madness to me.

Yet all the millenials at my work will only consider a brand new house (Obviously with the white, leased bottom of the range Mercedes A class on the drive)

If you try and explain that they would be better off buying a bigger, better built older house with a decent garden they look at you as if you are an idiot.

I can only assume they are not prepared to do any work to a property so are happy to pay over the odds. The trouble is it will start to look tatty in five years due to the terrible build quality and nobody prepared to do any maintenance.
I am happy to buy modern properties. I cannot say I find them aesthetically pleasing as, say, a Georgian property, but the functionality of them works for me.

I view older properties like classic cars. Lovely to look at, lovely to rent for a week, but as an ownership proposition I don't want to have to constantly tinker, or be landed with a unexpected large bill. I travel a lot and aiming to split my time between 2 countries - the idea of having a constant project in the property over and above interior design to me is something I am not interested in. Whilst you could argue the build quality/materials was better until circa 1980, we can discount anything built 1950 - 1980 as largely grim in terms of architectural design so we are talking <1950 which will understandably need regular TLC to keep on top of.

I understand why people want an older property, a living, breathing property with its own character. However, if you aren't necessarily invested in your property and view it as somewhere to stay, I can also see the attraction of a newbuild.


aeropilot

18,435 posts

171 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
Joey Deacon said:
I have never understood why anyone would want to buy a new build, you are basically getting cardboard walls and weetbix squeeky floors with the risk of affordable housing scum next door. Add in the total lack of parking in the street once every ones children are teenagers and every house has four cars plus a tiny, overlooked garden and it seems madness to me.

Yet all the millenials at my work will only consider a brand new house (Obviously with the white, leased bottom of the range Mercedes A class on the drive)

If you try and explain that they would be better off buying a bigger, better built older house with a decent garden they look at you as if you are an idiot.

I can only assume they are not prepared to do any work to a property so are happy to pay over the odds. The trouble is it will start to look tatty in five years due to the terrible build quality and nobody prepared to do any maintenance.
That's because they've been brought up in the throw-away society, and have the we want it all now mentality.
Unless they are in a 'hands-on trade' they have no knowledge of how to even change a light bulb in my experience, let alone take on a project or have an interest in a garden etc., or doing a refurb job etc.

Crap build isn't restricted to new build either, anything post 1980 is fairly shoddy build, with dob n dab wall finishes, and stud/metal partition internal walls among other generally cheap bash em up and flog em quick schemes.
I've just had an offer accepted on just such a house, built 30 years ago, as I'm moving out of London burbs to an area where most of the housing is 1980's/early 90's estate build, but, in my case, it's a compromise I have to accept on the basis of location, location, as moving closer to remaining family prior to retirement.

Timberwolf

4,848 posts

162 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
Of the people I know who'd only buy new builds, it's a combination of a lack of practical skills and wanting stuff to look perfect. I like my old houses, but there's almost always some bit of maintenance that needs doing somewhere, and for the 99% on vaguely normal incomes you'll go bankrupt if you get the trades in every time you find a crack. Plus you learn to *never* let a spirit level get near any of the original bits if you value your sanity.

ooid

1,528 posts

44 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
Joey Deacon said:
I have never understood why anyone would want to buy a new build, you are basically getting cardboard walls and weetbix squeeky floors with the risk of affordable housing scum next door. Add in the total lack of parking in the street once every ones children are teenagers and every house has four cars plus a tiny, overlooked garden and it seems madness to me.

Yet all the millenials at my work will only consider a brand new house (Obviously with the white, leased bottom of the range Mercedes A class on the drive)

If you try and explain that they would be better off buying a bigger, better built older house with a decent garden they look at you as if you are an idiot.

I can only assume they are not prepared to do any work to a property so are happy to pay over the odds. The trouble is it will start to look tatty in five years due to the terrible build quality and nobody prepared to do any maintenance.
The older houses are expensive. They do need constant maintenance, not to mention horrible insulation. Many of them suffer during winter. New builds, overall quite cheap for young professionals. Insured already, brand new building components, better insulation and etc... If you are not trained architect/builder and not really have time for DIY, getting an older house is like owning a classic car without a clue really, can turn into a total money-pit.

- Just to add, I do love older houses/buildings and did a few on my own smile for a trained-eye, they are opportunity. biglaugh

WonkeyDonkey

504 posts

47 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
A lot of the attraction of a new build is the fact they can put down a 5% deposit. Which means they can still put an initial rental fee down on a 'prestige German' base model.

tonker

56,015 posts

192 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
I viewed an 80s house. Built in garden of a 20s house by owners of 20s house to move into.m. Build was utterly utterly appalling. Everything paper thin and cheapo.

EA wittered on about

Brown framed Softwood double glazing - 30 years old - mostly blown and worthless
CH - ancient potterton system with plastic push fit to a cheap new shower
That ‘luxury’ oak kitchen all middle class people aspired to - when they wore grey flecked double pleated trousers - fitted when new and non digital displays (to date it) on clock and a brown sink.
Insulation in roof / old and the boiler cupboard was shielded in asbestos (sheet)
- tiny water pipes so decent flow tough
- radiators all ancient and microbore pipe to them
- T&G floors upstairs and down that had been ripped up so many times they creaked everywhere
- all cheapest brass door handles and hose cardboard box cheap veneer doors - painted with what must have been a dead rat by the inner of hairs in the coarse paint and with some laughably not square mouldings wonkily glued to them
- an arch between two rooms - just like that ristorante they visited in Spain (why did we put that arch in - to hide a steel - it looked crap)
- bloody artex. Everywhere. Stippled, arcs, circles, everywhere.
- gyproc coving. That single boring crap. From about 1986.
Virtually no power sockets or light switches
Fuse board looked like it should be on display in “how we used to live”
- cheapest segmented garage that was cracked and garage door wouldn’t open (added to sqft on floor plan natch)
- still had a Valor homeflame fire in - in brass
A brown plastic conservatory with plastic opaque (mainly mould now) panels and one of those brass poles to twist the one roof light open (great all year round.... apparently). No electrics, no insulation and feeling and smelling like the discount corner of a pet shop ....

It has gone under offer to a couple moving out of London. Described to me as typical Londoners (their architect negotiated for them apparently). they are going to need to throw 400k plus at it (as they will just pay people) and will be left with a poorly built house ... albeit with some lovely muted tones . Architect will make enough out of them to buy a new XC90 and a cool 99 turbo for weekends


menousername

933 posts

86 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
ooid said:
New builds, overall quite cheap for young professionals.

better insulation and etc...
Not sure about those two.

New builds tend to be overpriced for what they are and the space offered.

Built cheaply and very flimsy, they both need repairs very often and have terrible insulation due to paper-thin walls, cheap doors and window, gaps etc. I think the builders use white paint in place of plaster for internal walls.

I believe they often also require payment into a management company similar to a service charge on an apartment because the roads are not handed over to the council and must be maintained.

Once, when renting such a new build, an internal door handle came off in my hand. To secure it back on I tried to use an ever so slightly bigger screw to secure it into the door tightly. To my surprise that screw was too big because it hit the back of the handle on the other side of the door. Having fitted many door handles before it confused me for a while. At that point I realised the builders must get custom-made extra thin internal doors made just to scrape more savings on materials used.... the are not regular width.

Hence poor insulation




Alfa numeric

2,959 posts

123 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
aeropilot said:
Joey Deacon said:
I have never understood why anyone would want to buy a new build, you are basically getting cardboard walls and weetbix squeeky floors with the risk of affordable housing scum next door. Add in the total lack of parking in the street once every ones children are teenagers and every house has four cars plus a tiny, overlooked garden and it seems madness to me.

Yet all the millenials at my work will only consider a brand new house (Obviously with the white, leased bottom of the range Mercedes A class on the drive)

If you try and explain that they would be better off buying a bigger, better built older house with a decent garden they look at you as if you are an idiot.

I can only assume they are not prepared to do any work to a property so are happy to pay over the odds. The trouble is it will start to look tatty in five years due to the terrible build quality and nobody prepared to do any maintenance.
That's because they've been brought up in the throw-away society, and have the we want it all now mentality.
Unless they are in a 'hands-on trade' they have no knowledge of how to even change a light bulb in my experience, let alone take on a project or have an interest in a garden etc., or doing a refurb job etc.

Crap build isn't restricted to new build either, anything post 1980 is fairly shoddy build, with dob n dab wall finishes, and stud/metal partition internal walls among other generally cheap bash em up and flog em quick schemes.
I've just had an offer accepted on just such a house, built 30 years ago, as I'm moving out of London burbs to an area where most of the housing is 1980's/early 90's estate build, but, in my case, it's a compromise I have to accept on the basis of location, location, as moving closer to remaining family prior to retirement.
We sold a house built in 1902 and moved into an new build. The old house was single skin and cost a comparative fortune to heat, one of the walls was bowing and would need pinning soon and the wooden lintel over the bay window should probably have been replaced by a steel one. We looked into a loft extension and were told by a planner that the foundations were barely deep enough to maintain the existing structure and we'd need to reinforce the whole house if we wanted to extend upwards. In contrast the new build, despite being twice the size, costs less to run but of course has less character. We don't have to worry about replacing bathrooms or the kitchen for years and the place is a blank canvas. Of course we also got to experience the joys of snagging- not just cracks in the walls but ill fitting windows, mismatched garage doors and an internal door that was literally ripped off its hinges by an 8 year old girl...

stuckmojo

1,994 posts

132 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
tonker said:
I viewed an 80s house. Built in garden of a 20s house by owners of 20s house to move into.m. Build was utterly utterly appalling. Everything paper thin and cheapo.

EA wittered on about

Brown framed Softwood double glazing - 30 years old - mostly blown and worthless
CH - ancient potterton system with plastic push fit to a cheap new shower
That ‘luxury’ oak kitchen all middle class people aspired to - when they wore grey flecked double pleated trousers - fitted when new and non digital displays (to date it) on clock and a brown sink.
Insulation in roof / old and the boiler cupboard was shielded in asbestos (sheet)
- tiny water pipes so decent flow tough
- radiators all ancient and microbore pipe to them
- T&G floors upstairs and down that had been ripped up so many times they creaked everywhere
- all cheapest brass door handles and hose cardboard box cheap veneer doors - painted with what must have been a dead rat by the inner of hairs in the coarse paint and with some laughably not square mouldings wonkily glued to them
- an arch between two rooms - just like that ristorante they visited in Spain (why did we put that arch in - to hide a steel - it looked crap)
- bloody artex. Everywhere. Stippled, arcs, circles, everywhere.
- gyproc coving. That single boring crap. From about 1986.
Virtually no power sockets or light switches
Fuse board looked like it should be on display in “how we used to live”
- cheapest segmented garage that was cracked and garage door wouldn’t open (added to sqft on floor plan natch)
- still had a Valor homeflame fire in - in brass
A brown plastic conservatory with plastic opaque (mainly mould now) panels and one of those brass poles to twist the one roof light open (great all year round.... apparently). No electrics, no insulation and feeling and smelling like the discount corner of a pet shop ....

It has gone under offer to a couple moving out of London. Described to me as typical Londoners (their architect negotiated for them apparently). they are going to need to throw 400k plus at it (as they will just pay people) and will be left with a poorly built house ... albeit with some lovely muted tones . Architect will make enough out of them to buy a new XC90 and a cool 99 turbo for weekends
And how much will these genii pay for this beauty?

Joey Deacon

1,581 posts

120 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
stuckmojo said:
tonker said:
I viewed an 80s house. Built in garden of a 20s house by owners of 20s house to move into.m. Build was utterly utterly appalling. Everything paper thin and cheapo.

EA wittered on about

Brown framed Softwood double glazing - 30 years old - mostly blown and worthless
CH - ancient potterton system with plastic push fit to a cheap new shower
That ‘luxury’ oak kitchen all middle class people aspired to - when they wore grey flecked double pleated trousers - fitted when new and non digital displays (to date it) on clock and a brown sink.
Insulation in roof / old and the boiler cupboard was shielded in asbestos (sheet)
- tiny water pipes so decent flow tough
- radiators all ancient and microbore pipe to them
- T&G floors upstairs and down that had been ripped up so many times they creaked everywhere
- all cheapest brass door handles and hose cardboard box cheap veneer doors - painted with what must have been a dead rat by the inner of hairs in the coarse paint and with some laughably not square mouldings wonkily glued to them
- an arch between two rooms - just like that ristorante they visited in Spain (why did we put that arch in - to hide a steel - it looked crap)
- bloody artex. Everywhere. Stippled, arcs, circles, everywhere.
- gyproc coving. That single boring crap. From about 1986.
Virtually no power sockets or light switches
Fuse board looked like it should be on display in “how we used to live”
- cheapest segmented garage that was cracked and garage door wouldn’t open (added to sqft on floor plan natch)
- still had a Valor homeflame fire in - in brass
A brown plastic conservatory with plastic opaque (mainly mould now) panels and one of those brass poles to twist the one roof light open (great all year round.... apparently). No electrics, no insulation and feeling and smelling like the discount corner of a pet shop ....

It has gone under offer to a couple moving out of London. Described to me as typical Londoners (their architect negotiated for them apparently). they are going to need to throw 400k plus at it (as they will just pay people) and will be left with a poorly built house ... albeit with some lovely muted tones . Architect will make enough out of them to buy a new XC90 and a cool 99 turbo for weekends
And how much will these genii pay for this beauty?
And let me guess, they will also pay an attractive middle aged but just starting to lose her looks designer £500 a day to decide to paint the house white and grey (or what ever the Farrow and Ball paint names for Grey and White are)

ooid

1,528 posts

44 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
menousername said:
Once, when renting such a new build, an internal door handle came off in my hand. To secure it back on I tried to use an ever so slightly bigger screw to secure it into the door tightly. To my surprise that screw was too big because it hit the back of the handle on the other side of the door. Having fitted many door handles before it confused me for a while. At that point I realised the builders must get custom-made extra thin internal doors made just to scrape more savings on materials used.... the are not regular width.

Hence poor insulation
I'm sure there are crappy ones out there too, but overall, most of them are quite better in terms of maintenance and built quality. The term in the staets mostly used "Turn-key", you really do not have to think about any additional cost. Most of the new builds in London (in my knowledge) provide 9 years of build insurance, so even stupid things like door handles or insulation issues usually being picked up by them immediately with no cost.

An old property would really ruin someone's life, if they do not have enough time to work on it and they do need the bloody shelter with basic amenities like our extreme winters over here.


GreatGranny

7,092 posts

170 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
We have bought increasingly newer houses with every move.
It wasn't deliberate just what was on offer at the time.

First house was a 1900 terrace in Sheffield which was a nightmare to maintain but We were young so the work didn't bother us.
Next 3 were 1930s semis which were all good quality but needed loads of work hence why they were relatively cheap to buy.

When we moved to Lincolnshire it was to a 1978 detatched house.
The build quality was awful and doing any DIY was time consuming and always cost more than planned.

We've just moved to a 1998 detatched which is hugely better built than our last house.
It helps that the previous owner looked after it very well and all work carried out was to a very high standard.

Yes its a little soleless, has a small garden, is overlooked but not badly and there's a 4-5ft gap either side to the neighbours.

It wasn't an emotional purchase, it's only a house we will live in for 7-8 years until all kids have gone and we semi/retire hopefully.
Then we will either sell or rent and live in our rental and buy a small apartment in Tenerife for the winter :-)
Which will be nice.

turbobloke

85,011 posts

204 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
menousername said:
Not sure about those two.

New builds tend to be overpriced for what they are and the space offered.

Built cheaply and very flimsy, they both need repairs very often and have terrible insulation due to paper-thin walls, cheap doors and window, gaps etc. I think the builders use white paint in place of plaster for internal walls.

I believe they often also require payment into a management company similar to a service charge on an apartment because the roads are not handed over to the council and must be maintained.

Once, when renting such a new build, an internal door handle came off in my hand. To secure it back on I tried to use an ever so slightly bigger screw to secure it into the door tightly. To my surprise that screw was too big because it hit the back of the handle on the other side of the door. Having fitted many door handles before it confused me for a while. At that point I realised the builders must get custom-made extra thin internal doors made just to scrape more savings on materials used.... the are not regular width.

Hence poor insulation
Similar experience here.

superlightr

10,156 posts

207 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
Alfa numeric said:
an internal door that was literally ripped off its hinges by an 8 year old girl...
I blame the kids too wink

It really is our kids that are wrecking our house...….no point in having walls repainted, new doors put on etc and looking nice as the children are just not careful enough. When they move out will be the time.

Lucky my parents built the house and have solid internal walls and stuff that even kids cant destroy. Its just cosmetic.

aeropilot

18,435 posts

171 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
superlightr said:
I blame the kids too wink

It really is our kids that are wrecking our house...….no point in having walls repainted, new doors put on etc and looking nice as the children are just not careful enough. When they move out will be the time.

Lucky my parents built the house and have solid internal walls and stuff that even kids cant destroy. Its just cosmetic.
You should make them repair/repaint the damage then.

That way they'll understand to be more careful as well as learning how to do DIY for when (if) they get a place of their own.

That's how I learnt, I was painting walls/woodwork etc in my bedroom and putting up shelves by the time I was starting high school.....and by the time I left school I was doing most of it in the rest of the house as well........as I had got better at it than my old man by then.