New bike prices crystal ball

New bike prices crystal ball

Author
Discussion

TAZ 215

80 posts

146 months

Tuesday 13th April 2021
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Gary29 said:
TAZ 215 said:
The relative difference is that brands imported from Taiwan to the UK are unchanged in terms of duty, they paid 14% before and after Brexit. Cube had a huge price hike for the same reason.
But blue passports man....BLUE!!!
It's great, we have taken control of our borders and regained our sovereignty.

In fact so much control of our own borders that it is now more complicated, costly and annoying to "export" from the UK to Northern Ireland than Southern Ireland!



millen

688 posts

85 months

Tuesday 13th April 2021
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numtumfutunch said:
millen said:
A friend last week took delivery of a new 2020-spec Trek Domane 2x12 speed AXS from his LBS. Was a tad over £4k relative to a list price of £5k+ It certainly looks the biz, if somewhat heavier than I'd expected.
Good work, my research has hit a blank on discounts due to supply issues

Was the Domane an unusual size?
If not Id be very happy to hear how the discount was negotiated

Cheers
He bought it from this shop https://www.balfesbikes.co.uk/bikes/trek I imagine it was a Small, possibly Medium. I don't know that he's a particularly forceful negotiator, though he is a psychiatrist which may give him an edge! Interestingly he normally uses the Trek stockist in a different town, so maybe there was an element of asking around and he hit on one the shop was keen to move on.

nickfrog

20,872 posts

216 months

Wednesday 14th April 2021
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Bathroom_Security said:
There was a forum member on my Levo £13k thread, his/her opinion was that golfist types are to blame and I agree. Dave the dentist buys a £10k bike to show off, then accountant Mike goes and outdoes him and buys a £12k bike.

Manufacturers cotton onto this and then fuel the fire so to speak, providing the ever increasing priced bikes to keep them going
I think your social stereotyping is somewhat exaggerated. Golfist have started switching to cycling quite a few years ago. My accountant would certainly not buy a £12k bike, let alone a £12k car.

Bathroom_Security

3,323 posts

116 months

Wednesday 14th April 2021
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nickfrog said:
Bathroom_Security said:
There was a forum member on my Levo £13k thread, his/her opinion was that golfist types are to blame and I agree. Dave the dentist buys a £10k bike to show off, then accountant Mike goes and outdoes him and buys a £12k bike.

Manufacturers cotton onto this and then fuel the fire so to speak, providing the ever increasing priced bikes to keep them going
I think your social stereotyping is somewhat exaggerated. Golfist have started switching to cycling quite a few years ago. My accountant would certainly not buy a £12k bike, let alone a £12k car.
Said user did cite 2012 as the time it went sour


nickfrog

20,872 posts

216 months

Wednesday 14th April 2021
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Bathroom_Security said:
Said user did cite 2012 as the time it went sour
But bike prices didn't start being particularly higher than before from 2012 until early 2020.

Bathroom_Security

3,323 posts

116 months

Wednesday 14th April 2021
quotequote all
nickfrog said:
Bathroom_Security said:
Said user did cite 2012 as the time it went sour
But bike prices didn't start being particularly higher than before from 2012 until early 2020.

nickfrog

20,872 posts

216 months

Wednesday 14th April 2021
quotequote all
Bathroom_Security said:
nickfrog said:
Bathroom_Security said:
Said user did cite 2012 as the time it went sour
But bike prices didn't start being particularly higher than before from 2012 until early 2020.
Is that a picture of you? I have been trading high end mtbs for about 25 years. I have a very good idea of prices. Very stable up to 12 months ago.

Bathroom_Security

3,323 posts

116 months

Wednesday 14th April 2021
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nickfrog said:
Is that a picture of you? I have been trading high end mtbs for about 25 years. I have a very good idea of prices. Very stable up to 12 months ago.
Yes its me

Say that then

Whats your accountant got to do with spending 12k on a bike or got to do with this thread?

Whenever and however it started, theres definitely some absurd dick swinging involved, not just covid price increases. Yes the last 12 months have seen prices rise to obscene levels for a run of the mill bike but it goes back further than that

I am sure the Levo SL founders edition was something crazy price wise and pretty sure that was pre covid. Having to be careful what I say here in case you pull some accurate stats or dates out on me. Even back in the early 2000's there was the SantaCruz V10 that cost something ridiculous, sure it was a £10k bike even back then

This isnt NP&E, go easy on me

flight147z

960 posts

128 months

Thursday 15th April 2021
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I think disc brakes added ~£500 to the price of bikes when they were first introduced

When you had a choice of disc or rim you could usually save a decent amount by going with rim brakes over disc brakes

Now that for the most part rim brake models have been discontinued the overall pricing has just been uplifted

An example from the Canyon site

Rim - £2,499
Disc - £2,949

I find this a little odd as you would hope that as disc brakes replace the older rim technology the pricing would stay relatively consistent

On a basic 105 spec carbon bike discs have added 33% to the total cost

Sway

26,070 posts

193 months

Friday 16th April 2021
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High end bikes have become Veblen goods... We do love our status symbols.

Exactly the same reason that the big three German premium car brands have increased the size of their 'trademark' grill motif until it fills the entire front of the car.

Those direct to consumer suppliers in the EU that played the country of origin game are now hit by that not being an option - of course, what they're now able to do is recover the import tariffs they pay on frames/components into say Germany under inward processing relief. I think we can be fairly comfortable that they're choosing not to pass that on as they can easily point to the tariff for complete bikes into the UK of non-EU origin.

Demand has gone insane. Supply has been constrained.

Then there's the macroeconomic impact of 08 and Covid as demonstrated by the graph above.

Add all those things together, and you've a perfect storm for a specific industry inflationary bubble...

J4CKO

41,287 posts

199 months

Saturday 17th April 2021
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numtumfutunch said:
millen said:
A friend last week took delivery of a new 2020-spec Trek Domane 2x12 speed AXS from his LBS. Was a tad over £4k relative to a list price of £5k+ It certainly looks the biz, if somewhat heavier than I'd expected.
Good work, my research has hit a blank on discounts due to supply issues

Was the Domane an unusual size?
If not Id be very happy to hear how the discount was negotiated

Cheers
I am going to try my Domane SL5 tomorrow, now its in, ordered an SL4 but tey couldnt get one and are doing the SL4 for the same price, basically £2300 for a £2800 bike, so about what it was worth 18 months ago for a Carbon 105 equipped bike.

Maximus_Meridius101

1,222 posts

36 months

Saturday 17th April 2021
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Sway said:
High end bikes have become Veblen goods... We do love our status symbols.

Exactly the same reason that the big three German premium car brands have increased the size of their 'trademark' grill motif until it fills the entire front of the car.

Those direct to consumer suppliers in the EU that played the country of origin game are now hit by that not being an option - of course, what they're now able to do is recover the import tariffs they pay on frames/components into say Germany under inward processing relief. I think we can be fairly comfortable that they're choosing not to pass that on as they can easily point to the tariff for complete bikes into the UK of non-EU origin.

Demand has gone insane. Supply has been constrained.

Then there's the macroeconomic impact of 08 and Covid as demonstrated by the graph above.

Add all those things together, and you've a perfect storm for a specific industry inflationary bubble...
Quite. I’m so glad I got IBTL last year. I’ve no interest in any of the 2021 offerings really. By the time I want any of the new offerings, things should be a little more stable ( hopefully). The next time I’ll be after a high end bike, it will be when the new Dura Ace Di2 system is launched.


Edited by Maximus_Meridius101 on Saturday 17th April 19:15

jesusbuiltmycar

4,535 posts

253 months

Saturday 17th April 2021
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There are a lot of new bikes coming out with SRAM AXS Rival - it’s the equivalent of 105 but wireless electric shifting.

See

https://road.cc/content/tech-news/15-bikes-equippe...

Maximus_Meridius101

1,222 posts

36 months

Saturday 17th April 2021
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jesusbuiltmycar said:
There are a lot of new bikes coming out with SRAM AXS Rival - it’s the equivalent of 105 but wireless electric shifting.

See

https://road.cc/content/tech-news/15-bikes-equippe...
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Tsk3zAZyLaQ









Sway

26,070 posts

193 months

Saturday 17th April 2021
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I can't stand SRAM - I don't like the lever ergonomics, I don't like the shift style, etc.

However, I want a bespoke Enigma frame, sooner rather than later (within the next two years) - and I want it without ANY extraneous guff. Including cable guides/wire guides/bosses/etc.

So, it needs to be a wireless group. Shimano really do need to pull their fingers out their arses and get it done, pronto - and not just for Dura-Ace... At least D-A, Ultegra, GRX, XTR & XT. They're living in the last bloody century...

moonigan

2,127 posts

240 months

Saturday 17th April 2021
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There is a serious shortage of components from manufacturers like Shimano. I understand some brands have resorted to just selling framesets as they can't get hold of the groupsets. Even basic things like Dura-Ace rotors are impossible to get hold off. £3K for a 105 bike though is just insane.

Sway

26,070 posts

193 months

Saturday 17th April 2021
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I've heard there was also a big Shimano shipment stuck due to the Evergreen compounding the existing issues even further...

Whether that's conjecture I don't know.

JackReacher

2,118 posts

214 months

Sunday 18th April 2021
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I started looking for a new bike in early 2020 (pre-covid) where £1800 seemed to get me what I wanted (carbon frame, full 105, hydraulic discs) with plenty of different bikes available and sizes, but perhaps too many options that I struggled to make a decision on which bike to go for.

I've been looking for something for a while and finally went ahead and ordered last week, a Giant TCR advanced 2 disc in the correct size and actually available, but I'm having to pay £500 more than originally wanted and it isn't quite full 105 with a shimano non-105 crankset. The only positive is that perhaps I can shift my sora equipped Allez for more than I would have done!

TheTardis

214 posts

189 months

Sunday 18th April 2021
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Master Bean said:
The Domane frame is almost 2kg. For carbon! They're not light unlike the Emonda.

Maximus_Meridius101

1,222 posts

36 months

Sunday 18th April 2021
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Master Bean said:
The Domane frame is almost 2kg. For carbon! They're not light unlike the Emonda.
The Domane is an endurance bike, it’s not about being light. The Emonda is a full on race bike, it is deliberately designed to be super light, Trek have incorporated a few aero designs as well, so the Madone may go the way of the Venge, in Specialized’s line up.