Is there a Rolex bubble?
Discussion
In my nearest city there are, I would think, approaching 20 shops that will sell you a Rolex. Only one AD, but a lot selling used and new, unworn stock. It seems to be the same in most cities I've been to.
And Rolex is still making them.
And prices keep rising.
Will there come a point where the market is saturated and prices start to fall?
No, certainly not for sports and specialist models. Year on year, decade on decade the prices just slowly rise as does demand. Every so often there is a stagnant period but thats about as far as it goes.
As far as I'm aware there has never been a "crash" in either new or secondhand Rolex prices.
As far as I'm aware there has never been a "crash" in either new or secondhand Rolex prices.
Edited by DH01 on Friday 9th June 11:19
sp.Edited by DH01 on Friday 9th June 11:20
DH01 said:
No, certainly not for sports and specialist models. Year on year, decade on decade the prices just slowly rise as does demand. Every so often there is a stagnant period but thats about as far as it goes.
As far as I'm aware there has never been a "crash" in either new or secondhand Rolex prices.
Isn't that prediction like trying to drive by looking in the rear view mirror?As far as I'm aware there has never been a "crash" in either new or secondhand Rolex prices.
Edited by DH01 on Friday 9th June 11:19
sp.Edited by DH01 on Friday 9th June 11:20
Any sort of future prediction is just guessing. History shows that Rolex have been at the top of their game for a very long time and there are no indications that will change.
The secondhand market suffers slightly from changes in perception/fashion every so often but prices have always remained steady or increased.
The market is big enough to accommodate the volume, new or S/H.
For any other answer you'll need to trot along to Mystic Meg and cross her palm with silver !
There's also the desire to follow the herd and certain models become 'in-trend' then go out of style.
Rolex will always remain a status symbol as it is the most recognisable of watch brands. The cyclops on the 50th Seadweller will no doubt have helped as some buyers didn't buy earlier SD as it couldn't be easily recognised without the date magnification!
IMHO they look better when they've aged and have the dints/scratches to prove it. Many will however disagree and keep buying and flipping current models.
Rolex will always remain a status symbol as it is the most recognisable of watch brands. The cyclops on the 50th Seadweller will no doubt have helped as some buyers didn't buy earlier SD as it couldn't be easily recognised without the date magnification!
IMHO they look better when they've aged and have the dints/scratches to prove it. Many will however disagree and keep buying and flipping current models.
DH01 said:
Any sort of future prediction is just guessing. History shows that Rolex have been at the top of their game for a very long time and there are no indications that will change.
The secondhand market suffers slightly from changes in perception/fashion every so often but prices have always remained steady or increased.
The market is big enough to accommodate the volume, new or S/H.
For any other answer you'll need to trot along to Mystic Meg and cross her palm with silver !
I recall when I was in my mid 20s, which would have been early 90s, and wanting a quality watch. A friend of mine worked for Rolex and suggested strongly that I buy one - he was able to get me a deal on one. But I really didn't want one because Rolexes were the preserve of middle-aged men and upwards!The secondhand market suffers slightly from changes in perception/fashion every so often but prices have always remained steady or increased.
The market is big enough to accommodate the volume, new or S/H.
For any other answer you'll need to trot along to Mystic Meg and cross her palm with silver !
I bought a TAG, which gave me great pleasure for a number of years but it's worth 1/10th of the Rolex I was encouraged to buy.
Maybe, it does seem that new models are being flipped and older model have risen quite sharply in the last year.
I bought a 16600 SD last year for £4100, this year i could sell it for £5k easy. Not a clue how that happened!
Still kicking myself that I didnt buy a GMT Pepsi i saw in a jewellers in York a few months back, they only wanted £4500 and checking on sites now it was worth maybe £6k.
I think prices will stall at somepoint but i dont think a "bubble" with ever burst.
I bought a 16600 SD last year for £4100, this year i could sell it for £5k easy. Not a clue how that happened!
Still kicking myself that I didnt buy a GMT Pepsi i saw in a jewellers in York a few months back, they only wanted £4500 and checking on sites now it was worth maybe £6k.
I think prices will stall at somepoint but i dont think a "bubble" with ever burst.
As the second poster says - sports Rolex are very strong and have been for many years. Traditionally the Submariner (as an example) has sold above list, a watch that you seen fairly often, yet is elusive to buy new.
You mention 20 shops but I would be surprised if many of them have a steel submariner, GMT or Daytona in stock. The ones I see have the Datejusts in the window. Or oddities like the Yachtmaster.
Rolex keeps pushing up the price of the new models, the used ones follow suit (sometimes overtaking the new model).
A good example is the Green bezel non ceramic Sub (16610LV) - I think they were around 3.5k at release, now going for 8k at some dealers. Pretty much double the price of the black bezel variant. Now the same thing is happening to the Pepsi GMT.
You mention 20 shops but I would be surprised if many of them have a steel submariner, GMT or Daytona in stock. The ones I see have the Datejusts in the window. Or oddities like the Yachtmaster.
Rolex keeps pushing up the price of the new models, the used ones follow suit (sometimes overtaking the new model).
A good example is the Green bezel non ceramic Sub (16610LV) - I think they were around 3.5k at release, now going for 8k at some dealers. Pretty much double the price of the black bezel variant. Now the same thing is happening to the Pepsi GMT.
Traditionally a Sub has always traded over list? No chance, but I digress...
Looks like SirSquidalot I bought a 16600 SeaDweller (earlier this year) cheap-sub £4K and could now sell for much more but if values soften then I'm pretty sure I could get back what I paid in the short term.
Long term Rolex just seem to steadily increase and certainly in the last 30 years always have done.
Most aren't amazing investments however, unless there's some emperors new clothes thing like red text or dodgy lumes that comes into fashion.
But as a luxury good that provides enjoyment at little to no cost over a number of years, with the chance to increase in value-well, its nicer than staring at digits on an annual statement (IMHO).
Looks like SirSquidalot I bought a 16600 SeaDweller (earlier this year) cheap-sub £4K and could now sell for much more but if values soften then I'm pretty sure I could get back what I paid in the short term.
Long term Rolex just seem to steadily increase and certainly in the last 30 years always have done.
Most aren't amazing investments however, unless there's some emperors new clothes thing like red text or dodgy lumes that comes into fashion.
But as a luxury good that provides enjoyment at little to no cost over a number of years, with the chance to increase in value-well, its nicer than staring at digits on an annual statement (IMHO).
LaurasOtherHalf said:
But as a luxury good that provides enjoyment at little to no cost over a number of years, with the chance to increase in value-well, its nicer than staring at digits on an annual statement (IMHO).
That's my take on things. I have no interest in owning watches that I don't want to wear. In fact I have trashed the value of a few "investments" by taking off the stickers and wearing them. But I see Rolex sports models as nice watches that have little or no cost of ownership.A new Daytona over list- there are many far, far better and more interesting watches at that money and less, but I understand it as the watch is genuinely very difficult to get and for most people it's the only way to get one without waiting for a ridiculous amount of time.
But a used sub over list????
This I really don't understand. They are not difficult to get AD's might not have them in the window often nowadays but they get them in regularly you won't have to wait that long in most places.
But a used sub over list????
This I really don't understand. They are not difficult to get AD's might not have them in the window often nowadays but they get them in regularly you won't have to wait that long in most places.
There are a couple of 2ndhand Rolex dealers near where I work and my observation from the prices is that most of the range depreciates, and the really old stuff is worth relatively little. I think this means the bubble is unlikely to burst although particular models may fall out of favour over time. Of course no company lasts forever but I think it will be a gradual decline or part of a wider collapse in luxury goods markets.
Caruso said:
There are a couple of 2ndhand Rolex dealers near where I work and my observation from the prices is that most of the range depreciates, and the really old stuff is worth relatively little. I think this means the bubble is unlikely to burst although particular models may fall out of favour over time. Of course no company lasts forever but I think it will be a gradual decline or part of a wider collapse in luxury goods markets.
Are you referring to non-sports models depreciating?So said:
Are you referring to non-sports models depreciating?
Broadly yes. Steel Subs and Daytonas seem to do well. Datejusts, Airkings, Yachtmaster etc seem to depreciate gently. The precious metal stuff is very expensive new so depreciates more. This is all based on personal observations of dealers windows and some stuff for sale online, so I'm not claiming a definitive knowledge of the market. Just what I've observed while I was looking for my 1st Rolex.As I see it, the main risk to used values is if interest rates improve drastically, and this would affect the value of all sorts of 'investment' items such as classic cars.
Caruso said:
So said:
Are you referring to non-sports models depreciating?
Broadly yes. Steel Subs and Daytonas seem to do well. Datejusts, Airkings, Yachtmaster etc seem to depreciate gently. The precious metal stuff is very expensive new so depreciates more. This is all based on personal observations of dealers windows and some stuff for sale online, so I'm not claiming a definitive knowledge of the market. Just what I've observed while I was looking for my 1st Rolex.As I see it, the main risk to used values is if interest rates improve drastically, and this would affect the value of all sorts of 'investment' items such as classic cars.
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