Is there a Rolex bubble?
Discussion
Daytona prices listed earlier this year regularly around £17k-18k...twice the RRP. Crazy. However over the last few weeks I've noticed lower prices more frequently £14k-£15k. I wonder what the higher prices actually sell at? Or maybe sellers are just being more realistic now that the grey market is listed with heavily over priced stock...
LaurasOtherHalf said:
Put steel Daytona’s into Chrono24 and see how May are available-very few.
A trade bid on a new one is £14.5-£15.5k at the moment.
Problem with Chrono is it does not factor in VAT for none EU countries.A trade bid on a new one is £14.5-£15.5k at the moment.
Buy DaytonaC in the US for import into the U.K. and its immediately 24% more expensive.
Most EU Daytona’s have to be another 2k at the moment and US models are lowering the average purchase price
I'm amazed at the values of used Rolex at the moment and the seeming lack of supply vs demand for new stainless models.
I bought a brand new 116610LV from an authorised dealer about 8 years ago for £5,360.00, which was the list price for the black faced Sub at the time. I've not seen any LVs in any dealer windows for a while now.
There's not many of them at all on the used watch websites I've looked at and a quick look on eBay reveals that they're now going for £8-9k!
I'm tempted to flog mine, get a Tudor and pocket the difference. Fancied a change for a while now.
Surely the bubble has got to burst at some point?
I bought a brand new 116610LV from an authorised dealer about 8 years ago for £5,360.00, which was the list price for the black faced Sub at the time. I've not seen any LVs in any dealer windows for a while now.
There's not many of them at all on the used watch websites I've looked at and a quick look on eBay reveals that they're now going for £8-9k!
I'm tempted to flog mine, get a Tudor and pocket the difference. Fancied a change for a while now.
Surely the bubble has got to burst at some point?
TheOversteerLever said:
I'm amazed at the values of used Rolex at the moment and the seeming lack of supply vs demand for new stainless models.
I bought a brand new 116610LV from an authorised dealer about 8 years ago for £5,360.00, which was the list price for the black faced Sub at the time. I've not seen any LVs in any dealer windows for a while now.
There's not many of them at all on the used watch websites I've looked at and a quick look on eBay reveals that they're now going for £8-9k!
I'm tempted to flog mine, get a Tudor and pocket the difference. Fancied a change for a while now.
Surely the bubble has got to burst at some point?
See what WF are asking...I bought a brand new 116610LV from an authorised dealer about 8 years ago for £5,360.00, which was the list price for the black faced Sub at the time. I've not seen any LVs in any dealer windows for a while now.
There's not many of them at all on the used watch websites I've looked at and a quick look on eBay reveals that they're now going for £8-9k!
I'm tempted to flog mine, get a Tudor and pocket the difference. Fancied a change for a while now.
Surely the bubble has got to burst at some point?
TheOversteerLever said:
I'm amazed at the values of used Rolex at the moment and the seeming lack of supply vs demand for new stainless models.
I bought a brand new 116610LV from an authorised dealer about 8 years ago for £5,360.00, which was the list price for the black faced Sub at the time. I've not seen any LVs in any dealer windows for a while now.
There's not many of them at all on the used watch websites I've looked at and a quick look on eBay reveals that they're now going for £8-9k!
I'm tempted to flog mine, get a Tudor and pocket the difference. Fancied a change for a while now.
Surely the bubble has got to burst at some point?
Like any bubble it will, but there's good money to be made in the meantime. As some famous billionaire once said - the trick is to sell just a little bit too soon - or words to that effect.I bought a brand new 116610LV from an authorised dealer about 8 years ago for £5,360.00, which was the list price for the black faced Sub at the time. I've not seen any LVs in any dealer windows for a while now.
There's not many of them at all on the used watch websites I've looked at and a quick look on eBay reveals that they're now going for £8-9k!
I'm tempted to flog mine, get a Tudor and pocket the difference. Fancied a change for a while now.
Surely the bubble has got to burst at some point?
endo said:
It's only in the past decade or so that Rolex have been pushing the watches as luxury items, and as such everyone perception has change.
As to the bubble, it is... it's going to keep growing
-as long as people keep buying into the rarity of certain models/variants,
-greed feeds the flippers that drives the ever increasing prices.
-Rolex keep production low (good thing imho.. a luxury item isn't luxury if every one has one)
Hilarious when you think 2 years ago... you'd be losing serious money if you flipped a Sub 5mins after buying one from an AD
Exactly!As to the bubble, it is... it's going to keep growing
-as long as people keep buying into the rarity of certain models/variants,
-greed feeds the flippers that drives the ever increasing prices.
-Rolex keep production low (good thing imho.. a luxury item isn't luxury if every one has one)
Hilarious when you think 2 years ago... you'd be losing serious money if you flipped a Sub 5mins after buying one from an AD
I reckon Rolex have spotted the 'bubble' and are pre-empting the bursting of that bubble. It seems draconian now, in terms of supply, but if the bubble pops, then demand will drop, but the demand will still outstrip supply. This way Rolex protect values through the downturn...
TheOversteerLever said:
I'm amazed at the values of used Rolex at the moment and the seeming lack of supply vs demand for new stainless models.
I bought a brand new 116610LV from an authorised dealer about 8 years ago for £5,360.00
I boutght a full set flat four Kermit 4 years ago second hand from a renowned dealer for £5k! I bought a brand new 116610LV from an authorised dealer about 8 years ago for £5,360.00
Crazy prices for sports models.
I bought a Hulk 11610LV this time last year. At the time there were plenty advertised (2nd hand) for 6.5k, i.e. list price. Maybe 7.5k for a minter / BNIB.
Now it looks more like 9k-10k being asked, admittedly it's not clear if they are selling at that price.
The non ceramic model (16610LN - black) (with solid end links) was available for 4.5k, now it looks more like 6.5k for a complete set.
I'm not sure it's a bubble as such for the sports models. Most people don't have that much money tied up in them, and those that do can afford to hold on to them. It's not like a vintage car where you have huge running costs and the issue of storage.
I bought a Hulk 11610LV this time last year. At the time there were plenty advertised (2nd hand) for 6.5k, i.e. list price. Maybe 7.5k for a minter / BNIB.
Now it looks more like 9k-10k being asked, admittedly it's not clear if they are selling at that price.
The non ceramic model (16610LN - black) (with solid end links) was available for 4.5k, now it looks more like 6.5k for a complete set.
I'm not sure it's a bubble as such for the sports models. Most people don't have that much money tied up in them, and those that do can afford to hold on to them. It's not like a vintage car where you have huge running costs and the issue of storage.
hungry_hog said:
I'm not sure it's a bubble as such for the sports models. Most people don't have that much money tied up in them, and those that do can afford to hold on to them. It's not like a vintage car where you have huge running costs and the issue of storage.
Do you follow some of the Asian collectors? I do, they just plough massive cash into as many SS models as they can get hold of!! They know little abut watches except: Rolex, Rolex, Rolex! I read one guy asking to start a Rolex dealership - he just wanted his pick of models. If that bubble bursts, prices will drop...hungry_hog said:
.
I'm not sure it's a bubble as such for the sports models. Most people don't have that much money tied up in them, and those that do can afford to hold on to them. It's not like a vintage car where you have huge running costs and the issue of storage.
Cleverer people than me have termed the above the "new paradigm" stage, where people seek to justify prices by comparing it to other bubbles that have burst giving examples of why it's different this time in this market.I'm not sure it's a bubble as such for the sports models. Most people don't have that much money tied up in them, and those that do can afford to hold on to them. It's not like a vintage car where you have huge running costs and the issue of storage.
Anyone who doesn't think it's a bit frothy out there at the moment needs to rethink, when people who have never owned a decent watch and have zero interest in them are buying them then you know at some point the music will stop.
Wills2 said:
hungry_hog said:
.
I'm not sure it's a bubble as such for the sports models. Most people don't have that much money tied up in them, and those that do can afford to hold on to them. It's not like a vintage car where you have huge running costs and the issue of storage.
Cleverer people than me have termed the above the "new paradigm" stage, where people seek to justify prices by comparing it to other bubbles that have burst giving examples of why it's different this time in this market.I'm not sure it's a bubble as such for the sports models. Most people don't have that much money tied up in them, and those that do can afford to hold on to them. It's not like a vintage car where you have huge running costs and the issue of storage.
Anyone who doesn't think it's a bit frothy out there at the moment needs to rethink, when people who have never owned a decent watch and have zero interest in them are buying them then you know at some point the music will stop.
But those of us already holding can ride the market.
The trick is when to cash out if profit is all you want.
I'm happy making money but, I'm happier wearing all those watches I always lusted after. I remember getting out of air cooled Porsche when I knew prices would keep rising, I knew I'd miss them but priorities were different.
Now I'm happy just owning the pieces. I think prices will continue to rise and I actually think they'll rise post brexit in the short term. It'll burst though in the end and when it does I'll suffer a loss on the 4 or 5 I'll (try and) keep. But I'll hoover up as many others as I can afford
WhisperingWasp said:
A bit better than the £20k seen on Chron24 but still ludicrous.Not been on WF for a while, £10k + for a Hulk!
WhisperingWasp said:
Meh. Official Watches punted 3 out the door at £19,999!!!!!So I was watching a video from Archie Luxury the other day and he's running a Rolex secrets set of videos at the moment it seems. Now how much the Pontiff is to be trusted on matters like this remains to be seen.
He was basically explaining a tip off that came through his mailbox that essentially (assuming Australia is similar to the UK), an AD would expect to see on average around 65 SS sports models arrive in a box over a year. That covers Subs, GMT, Explorer 1/2 and a few other things obviously. This subsequently got cut to 39, and now sits at around 34 per year. I'd be interested to know if this sort of average was a) true, and b) different based on which AD it is and where they're based in the country.
Now what is definitely true, having spoken to a couple of AD staff about this, is that the AD has generally no idea what they're getting in the delivery box until a week before or so. Rolex chooses the allocation, and then if you're a lucky AD and receive a Daytona or whatever then that can be allocated to whoever they choose. I would imagine that a few years ago, and ordered list would be appropriate but with a cut in the amount of watches an AD receives I'll bet they fudge the list themselves to whoever has the best buying history (probably based on how many diamonds or Datejusts they've bought!). But its a simple fact that if an AD gets on average, one Daytona a year, and there's 30 people sitting on the list, that's a 30 year wait - gulp!
If the numbers are to be believed, it just goes to show how lucky one can be if they come across an available SS Rolex like the BLNR in a short space of time. I waited 3 months for mine in 2017 which felt like eternity but many AD's wouldn't even put me on their list due to the excessive wait times.
Unless if Rolex starts ramping up manufacturing and delivery again I can only see prices going up on the second hand market. And as more and more super wealthy people keep setting records for vintage Rolex in the auction houses it has a way of dragging up prices of everything else.
He was basically explaining a tip off that came through his mailbox that essentially (assuming Australia is similar to the UK), an AD would expect to see on average around 65 SS sports models arrive in a box over a year. That covers Subs, GMT, Explorer 1/2 and a few other things obviously. This subsequently got cut to 39, and now sits at around 34 per year. I'd be interested to know if this sort of average was a) true, and b) different based on which AD it is and where they're based in the country.
Now what is definitely true, having spoken to a couple of AD staff about this, is that the AD has generally no idea what they're getting in the delivery box until a week before or so. Rolex chooses the allocation, and then if you're a lucky AD and receive a Daytona or whatever then that can be allocated to whoever they choose. I would imagine that a few years ago, and ordered list would be appropriate but with a cut in the amount of watches an AD receives I'll bet they fudge the list themselves to whoever has the best buying history (probably based on how many diamonds or Datejusts they've bought!). But its a simple fact that if an AD gets on average, one Daytona a year, and there's 30 people sitting on the list, that's a 30 year wait - gulp!
If the numbers are to be believed, it just goes to show how lucky one can be if they come across an available SS Rolex like the BLNR in a short space of time. I waited 3 months for mine in 2017 which felt like eternity but many AD's wouldn't even put me on their list due to the excessive wait times.
Unless if Rolex starts ramping up manufacturing and delivery again I can only see prices going up on the second hand market. And as more and more super wealthy people keep setting records for vintage Rolex in the auction houses it has a way of dragging up prices of everything else.
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