How long will the Rolex Bubble Last
Discussion
Hi,
Firstly Happy New Year to you all and may you have great health and wealth in 2019
New to the forum but been lurking here for a couple of years, just decided to contribute now as I need some advice / help
I am looking for a 21st Anniversary watch present for myself. Budget is max £10k before any discounts
Decided to look at Rolex as not really had a look since about 10 years ago , and omg what is happening to waiting times, warranty card retention’s, and prices of used ones. I like the Sea Deweller, Daytona , Skydeweller, Submariner Hulk etc
Will the mad prices / waiting times continue or will the bubble burst like it dies in house prices?
Secondly I am happy to wait for a Rolex if you think prices will stay high etc., plus it gives me time to save up some more money , as it looks I will be buying an interim watch until I get a nice Rolex I want
But what do I buy now?
I like a bigger, 42mm min prefer 44mm upwards size watches, around up to £3k , after any discount . Tempted by .the Tudor range but how is residuals as I may need to trade it in / sell it once a nice Rolex becomes available . I do not want to find a £3k watch is worth £1k after say 3-5 years. Happy to lose a bit of cash say £500-600 on what I paid . The watch will not be a daily, more a nice occasion watch or going out watch . The £3K is not a hard fixed price as I would go up to £4K ish for the right watch . I would prefer new but would look at used etc
So far I have looked at
Tudor Range lovely watches
Breitling Superocean II 46 , lovely clean design
Omega limited edition 45th anniversary of the last man on th moon
Cheaper Rolex ( I think it was Around £4K , sorry I can’t remember the name, but it had a lovely pinky puarple dial )
Hamilton watches , nice designs and relatively cheap
Any advice , commmets would be great as I really do not know too much about watches in detail, only what I like the look of etc
Thanks in advance
Sid
Firstly Happy New Year to you all and may you have great health and wealth in 2019
New to the forum but been lurking here for a couple of years, just decided to contribute now as I need some advice / help
I am looking for a 21st Anniversary watch present for myself. Budget is max £10k before any discounts
Decided to look at Rolex as not really had a look since about 10 years ago , and omg what is happening to waiting times, warranty card retention’s, and prices of used ones. I like the Sea Deweller, Daytona , Skydeweller, Submariner Hulk etc
Will the mad prices / waiting times continue or will the bubble burst like it dies in house prices?
Secondly I am happy to wait for a Rolex if you think prices will stay high etc., plus it gives me time to save up some more money , as it looks I will be buying an interim watch until I get a nice Rolex I want
But what do I buy now?
I like a bigger, 42mm min prefer 44mm upwards size watches, around up to £3k , after any discount . Tempted by .the Tudor range but how is residuals as I may need to trade it in / sell it once a nice Rolex becomes available . I do not want to find a £3k watch is worth £1k after say 3-5 years. Happy to lose a bit of cash say £500-600 on what I paid . The watch will not be a daily, more a nice occasion watch or going out watch . The £3K is not a hard fixed price as I would go up to £4K ish for the right watch . I would prefer new but would look at used etc
So far I have looked at
Tudor Range lovely watches
Breitling Superocean II 46 , lovely clean design
Omega limited edition 45th anniversary of the last man on th moon
Cheaper Rolex ( I think it was Around £4K , sorry I can’t remember the name, but it had a lovely pinky puarple dial )
Hamilton watches , nice designs and relatively cheap
Any advice , commmets would be great as I really do not know too much about watches in detail, only what I like the look of etc
Thanks in advance
Sid
As regards Rolex waiting lists/bubble etc, nobody really knows. I was lucky in that I bought my used SS Daytona over five years ago at less than the new price. In the same situation now, I’d just put my name on a few lists (if they’d even put me on one) and wait. What I do advise, however, is trying watches on before you plan anything, as what looks good in brochures and on the net might look unappealing on your wrist.
For something to wear til then, whatever takes your fancy! You might be wearing it for a few years, so just enjoy it.
For something to wear til then, whatever takes your fancy! You might be wearing it for a few years, so just enjoy it.
Best advice is to pop into an AD and look at the specific watch you plan to get , Sky dweller, Daytona etc and ask what the likelywaiting list time is, discuss with then what & why you want this watch, It may be slightly more expensive but discuss your desire to purchase a £2~£4k watch now to tie you over ...see what they have that appeals (Likely they'll have Tudor)
From my experience … The AD was more interested in me being a local resident and during casual conversation they dropped in "oh you must know A........ P...……. ", Actually I did know A........ P...……. and replied with recent news …. This sort of passed a attitude test & put a glint in the AD's eye that I'm genuine
From my experience … The AD was more interested in me being a local resident and during casual conversation they dropped in "oh you must know A........ P...……. ", Actually I did know A........ P...……. and replied with recent news …. This sort of passed a attitude test & put a glint in the AD's eye that I'm genuine
The global market for the most sought after Rolex models seems to be pretty robust - from investors, collectors, enthusiasts and the fashionista.
A global recession might well slow demand and price premiums, particularly for the current production models. But I still think the most desirable/collectible/vintage/out of production models will retain value. I'd have more confidence in these watches than the classic car market, which I think is in regression.
A global recession might well slow demand and price premiums, particularly for the current production models. But I still think the most desirable/collectible/vintage/out of production models will retain value. I'd have more confidence in these watches than the classic car market, which I think is in regression.
EvoSid said:
[snip]
But what do I buy now?
I like a bigger, 42mm min prefer 44mm upwards size watches, around up to £3k , after any discount . Tempted by .the Tudor range but how is residuals as I may need to trade it in / sell it once a nice Rolex becomes available . I do not want to find a £3k watch is worth £1k after say 3-5 years. Happy to lose a bit of cash say £500-600 on what I paid . The watch will not be a daily, more a nice occasion watch or going out watch . The £3K is not a hard fixed price as I would go up to £4K ish for the right watch . I would prefer new but would look at used etc
The new Omega Seamaster Professional 300m is a bit of a stunner and right in your budget range. METAS certified co-axial movement, ceramic bezel and dial, and display back. Having seen them in the flesh they seem remarkable value for money at £3,000 less than a Sub.But what do I buy now?
I like a bigger, 42mm min prefer 44mm upwards size watches, around up to £3k , after any discount . Tempted by .the Tudor range but how is residuals as I may need to trade it in / sell it once a nice Rolex becomes available . I do not want to find a £3k watch is worth £1k after say 3-5 years. Happy to lose a bit of cash say £500-600 on what I paid . The watch will not be a daily, more a nice occasion watch or going out watch . The £3K is not a hard fixed price as I would go up to £4K ish for the right watch . I would prefer new but would look at used etc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0Y8MB0jGZg
Regarding picking up a Speedmaster, it might be worth hanging on a bit as 2019 is the 50th anniversary of the first moon landing, and it would be interesting to see what Omega bring to the table to mark the occasion...
EvoSid said:
Cheaper Rolex ( I think it was Around £4K , sorry I can’t remember the name, but it had a lovely pinky puarple dial )
Yes the Oyster Perpetual 39mm, I think it's just over £4,000, and readily available.Beautiful watch (I have it in rhodium) but if you're buying it with the intention of flipping it in a couple of years it might be worth going for one of the other dial colours which might be easier to shift when the time comes - the new black and white ones seem popular, followed by the older rhodium (grey) and blue.
The problem with popping into the AD to see what you like is that they don't have any stock to look at!
A few weeks ago I went watch shopping with a colleague and there wasn't a single sports rolex available to see in the whole of Birmingham. Not even precious metals.
Just DJ variations by the million (which was what he wanted luckily, but still).
A few weeks ago I went watch shopping with a colleague and there wasn't a single sports rolex available to see in the whole of Birmingham. Not even precious metals.
Just DJ variations by the million (which was what he wanted luckily, but still).
Thais for the response and advice . I have been to a 3 dealers in my area (Aberdeen) and all we’re great. They let me try in heaps of watches , hence my shortlist.
Totally agree that looking at a watch in the “flesh” is totally different to a brochure / website . Classic example is the Breitling Superocean Heritage II 46. So much nice in real life than any brochure . It was stunning , simple but so nice
I think I will wait and see what omega release for the 50th anniversary of the moon landing
Might look at chrono 24 for some inspiration
What kind of discount have people had on
Omega limited edition moon watches
Breitling Superoceans
Tudor Range
Hamilton
Thanks for answering my questions much appreciated
Totally agree that looking at a watch in the “flesh” is totally different to a brochure / website . Classic example is the Breitling Superocean Heritage II 46. So much nice in real life than any brochure . It was stunning , simple but so nice
I think I will wait and see what omega release for the 50th anniversary of the moon landing
Might look at chrono 24 for some inspiration
What kind of discount have people had on
Omega limited edition moon watches
Breitling Superoceans
Tudor Range
Hamilton
Thanks for answering my questions much appreciated
How long will it last? Who knows?
I believe that it's a carefully engineered and managed phenomenon rather than being in the hands of fate.
Supply is kept at a level just below demand. Rolex make around a million watches a year, so they are definitely not an exclusive low volume manufacturer. There's no reason why they couldn't ramp production up to meet demand if they wanted to and yet, year on year they just don't, so the only viable conclusion is that under supply is Rolex's deliberate policy.
And let's face it, the policy is a fairly clever one for a luxury product. By keeping supply slightly lower than demand, they achieve three things. Firstly, they create the illusion of exclusivity. Secondly, they remove the need to discount their product, you don't reduce your prices in a sellers market (better to sell 1 million watches at 100% list price than 1.1 million at 90%). And thirdly, they keep the second hand market prices up.
Maintaining a decent price in the second hand market feeds the "It's an investment" fallacy, which in turn aids sales of new watches.
Should you get one? Yes, if you have the cash and you like one. There are many far more imaginative choices out there for your pennies, but none as recognisable to Joe public.
I believe that it's a carefully engineered and managed phenomenon rather than being in the hands of fate.
Supply is kept at a level just below demand. Rolex make around a million watches a year, so they are definitely not an exclusive low volume manufacturer. There's no reason why they couldn't ramp production up to meet demand if they wanted to and yet, year on year they just don't, so the only viable conclusion is that under supply is Rolex's deliberate policy.
And let's face it, the policy is a fairly clever one for a luxury product. By keeping supply slightly lower than demand, they achieve three things. Firstly, they create the illusion of exclusivity. Secondly, they remove the need to discount their product, you don't reduce your prices in a sellers market (better to sell 1 million watches at 100% list price than 1.1 million at 90%). And thirdly, they keep the second hand market prices up.
Maintaining a decent price in the second hand market feeds the "It's an investment" fallacy, which in turn aids sales of new watches.
Should you get one? Yes, if you have the cash and you like one. There are many far more imaginative choices out there for your pennies, but none as recognisable to Joe public.
mikeveal said:
How long will it last? Who knows?
This. What I fail to get my head around is why Rolex make lots of watches that seem to sell slowly & not enough of the ones that fly off the shelf (if they even hit the shelf)?
Just make a few more Subs, GMT's & Steel Daytona's & few less Datejusts etc.
Part of the Rolex 'problem' that seems to be present is the expectation that for you to acquire a cherished/in demand model (ie Daytona), you need to buy other Rolex watches that you may not want, are less popular and easily available (so won't hold their value so well).
The AD I am on the list with said 4 years. I do however have on order a Tudor GMT too - so hoping that when that eventually arrives, it may put me at least in short term favour as there is my commitment....
we'll see whether that works out!
The AD I am on the list with said 4 years. I do however have on order a Tudor GMT too - so hoping that when that eventually arrives, it may put me at least in short term favour as there is my commitment....
we'll see whether that works out!
andy tims said:
This.
What I fail to get my head around is why Rolex make lots of watches that seem to sell slowly & not enough of the ones that fly off the shelf (if they even hit the shelf)?
Just make a few more Subs, GMT's & Steel Daytona's & few less Datejusts etc.
They will never make enough to supply the demand, it's what they do! How do you sell a lot of something? Tell people they cant have it.What I fail to get my head around is why Rolex make lots of watches that seem to sell slowly & not enough of the ones that fly off the shelf (if they even hit the shelf)?
Just make a few more Subs, GMT's & Steel Daytona's & few less Datejusts etc.
Rolex are a genius brand that really gets peoples backs up, they treat customers like s
t, why? Because they can and its how they make millions every year.Nothing like being successful to draw criticism from us Brits!
Remember, SS Daytonas have only been in the current situation for quite a short time, and nobody knows when this situation will end, There's too much happening in this world to guarantee anything. So, Rolex ramp up production of SS Daytonas by 20%... how much would they need to invest? How many people would need training? How much new equipment would need to be procured and installed? Would a new facility need to be constructed?
And then world events set off a long lasting recession, and the demand drops to previous levels. You've wasted all that investment, and upset a load of new employees, all so a few forum members can easily buy a Daytona!
Remember, SS Daytonas have only been in the current situation for quite a short time, and nobody knows when this situation will end, There's too much happening in this world to guarantee anything. So, Rolex ramp up production of SS Daytonas by 20%... how much would they need to invest? How many people would need training? How much new equipment would need to be procured and installed? Would a new facility need to be constructed?
And then world events set off a long lasting recession, and the demand drops to previous levels. You've wasted all that investment, and upset a load of new employees, all so a few forum members can easily buy a Daytona!
One thing I cannot get my head around is stock markets are plunging like there's no tomorrow (well not quite but it's quite bad out there). And yet rolex prices are high high high
Previously, there was only really the daytona that sold at a material premium. Now there are probably 10 rolexes that sell at a premium and in many cases these are the same references that did not sell at premium just 2 years ago. Quite bonkers really. Personally, I think instagram and watch dealers on there have driven prices up massively.
Previously, there was only really the daytona that sold at a material premium. Now there are probably 10 rolexes that sell at a premium and in many cases these are the same references that did not sell at premium just 2 years ago. Quite bonkers really. Personally, I think instagram and watch dealers on there have driven prices up massively.
The waiting lists / premium prices, for certain Rolex models - particularly the S/S Daytonas, is not an entirely recent phenomenon.
It goes back decades, although back in the 1990s it was more like 12-18 months and a £1k premium.
But, in those days, far fewer people would consider paying large sums for a watch.
We now live in different times, where there is more money around, and a recognisable prestige watch is an important status symbol.
Rolex have a revered history, and manage their market very successfully. Those who buy their watches rarely lose money, so the only complainants are those who have to wait for a watch at ‘list price’ that will be immediately worth more in the market place.
It goes back decades, although back in the 1990s it was more like 12-18 months and a £1k premium.
But, in those days, far fewer people would consider paying large sums for a watch.
We now live in different times, where there is more money around, and a recognisable prestige watch is an important status symbol.
Rolex have a revered history, and manage their market very successfully. Those who buy their watches rarely lose money, so the only complainants are those who have to wait for a watch at ‘list price’ that will be immediately worth more in the market place.
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