How long will the Rolex Bubble Last
Discussion
El stovey said:
It’s definitely happened before, in the 80s all the yuppies wanted submariners, nobody wanted GMT’s or even Daytona’s. After the 80s submariners were symbolic of greed is good naffness. GMTs could be found under list well into the 90s. I remember being offered discounts on a new gmt in the late 1999 in London in Selfridges (I think)
It’s only comparatively recently that Rolex SS sports watches, especially GMT’s, have become so popular again. Used going over list is very recent.
That's not correct. It’s only comparatively recently that Rolex SS sports watches, especially GMT’s, have become so popular again. Used going over list is very recent.
It's true that the fashion for Rolex watches amongst the nouveau riche started in the '80s - but the Datejusts were the most popular and, interestingly, they were considered big watches at the time. It was the bi-metal and gold models that were the most desirable, and the gold presidential Day Dates that had the most kudos. The market for the Sports watches, and the subsequent waiting lists and premiums really became established in the mid-90s, more than 20 years ago, and has grown steadily since.
Cheib said:
So what’s a 20 yr old Daytona worth out of interest ? Not selling hopefully be my son’s one day.
If your Daytona is the 16520 stainless steel model (with the Zenith movement), which was produced from c.1988 to 2000, then these are becoming very collectable.The exact value will depend on the year/serial number, and whether you have wisely kept the original boxes, accessories and documentation. White dials tend to be a bit more sought after than black.
Definitely worth getting an insurance valuation from a specialist, as nice ones are £20k+
Koln-RS said:
El stovey said:
It’s definitely happened before, in the 80s all the yuppies wanted submariners, nobody wanted GMT’s or even Daytona’s. After the 80s submariners were symbolic of greed is good naffness. GMTs could be found under list well into the 90s. I remember being offered discounts on a new gmt in the late 1999 in London in Selfridges (I think)
It’s only comparatively recently that Rolex SS sports watches, especially GMT’s, have become so popular again. Used going over list is very recent.
That's not correct. It’s only comparatively recently that Rolex SS sports watches, especially GMT’s, have become so popular again. Used going over list is very recent.
It's true that the fashion for Rolex watches amongst the nouveau riche started in the '80s - but the Datejusts were the most popular and, interestingly, they were considered big watches at the time. It was the bi-metal and gold models that were the most desirable, and the gold presidential Day Dates that had the most kudos. The market for the Sports watches, and the subsequent waiting lists and premiums really became established in the mid-90s, more than 20 years ago, and has grown steadily since.
Edited by So on Sunday 6th January 19:54
The Rolex 'bubble' has existed at least since I first started taking an interest back in the 90s. You could buy a non date Sub for a little over a grand at that point and a Sea-dweller for 1500 quid or so.
I wasn't in a position to buy one until 2007 when I paid 3K for a Sea-dweller. It's worth nearly double that now.
The bubble isn't going to burst if you're talking about gents sport steel watches. They'll always retain value. Not sure I'd buy one these days although that probably says more about the state of my finances than the wisdom of doing so.
My budget is Tudor maximum these days.
I wasn't in a position to buy one until 2007 when I paid 3K for a Sea-dweller. It's worth nearly double that now.
The bubble isn't going to burst if you're talking about gents sport steel watches. They'll always retain value. Not sure I'd buy one these days although that probably says more about the state of my finances than the wisdom of doing so.
My budget is Tudor maximum these days.
I can't even find an AD to put me on a list for a Daytona. That might be a London thing, but each time I ask at any of the main ADs in the city or the wharf they just tell me the lists are closed. I wouldn't mind waiting a few years. In the meantime I check the shop at Zurich airport every time i pass through (which is about once a month) just in case. They sometimes have the bimetal ones but never the SS. Given a new bimetal is less than the current price of a secondary market SS, what do people think the chances of a swap are..?
I am more baffled now as I can not understand why anybody would pay more for a Stainless Steel Daytona over a Gold / Silver one. World has gone mad
I have narrowed my Rolex choices to
Submariner Hulk as I love Green and it is my daughters favourite colour and it would make a nice hand me down tp her
Sea Dweller D Blue (Blue/Black ) Dial as it is 43mm and I like that size.
Now the difficult part getting a hold of one.
So if anyone can help and put me in touch with a dealer who can deliver within 5 years that would be ace as it would be nice to get one for my 25th Wedding Anniversary
Willing to travel to Europe if need be
I have narrowed my Rolex choices to
Submariner Hulk as I love Green and it is my daughters favourite colour and it would make a nice hand me down tp her
Sea Dweller D Blue (Blue/Black ) Dial as it is 43mm and I like that size.
Now the difficult part getting a hold of one.
So if anyone can help and put me in touch with a dealer who can deliver within 5 years that would be ace as it would be nice to get one for my 25th Wedding Anniversary
Willing to travel to Europe if need be
The very specific interest in the S/S Rolex 'sport' watches really took off in the '90s. Ironically, this more austere, functional look was in complete contrast to the gold and diamond bling of the decadent '80s.
Of course fashions change, but the two-tone Daytonas are the least popular, and can often be seen for sale in dealers' windows below 'list', whilst the S/S Daytonas have huge waiting lists and command big premiums.
However, the market that still seems to offer good value, but also seems to be gaining pace, is for the yellow or white gold models on leather or rubber. These look very tasteful IMO, and I particularly like the 16518 and 16519 Zenith models. This one could be a very good buy -
https //www.ebay.co.uk/itm/1992-INVERTED-6-Rolex-Daytona...
The equivalent 16520 S/S model would be £20k+. But, do your due diligence - the box shown is not the correct one
Of course fashions change, but the two-tone Daytonas are the least popular, and can often be seen for sale in dealers' windows below 'list', whilst the S/S Daytonas have huge waiting lists and command big premiums.
However, the market that still seems to offer good value, but also seems to be gaining pace, is for the yellow or white gold models on leather or rubber. These look very tasteful IMO, and I particularly like the 16518 and 16519 Zenith models. This one could be a very good buy -
https //www.ebay.co.uk/itm/1992-INVERTED-6-Rolex-Daytona...
The equivalent 16520 S/S model would be £20k+. But, do your due diligence - the box shown is not the correct one
EvoSid said:
mikeveal said:
...
Should you get one? Yes, if you have the cash and you like one. There are many far more imaginative choices out there for your pennies, but none as recognisable to Joe public.
As a watch novice what other watches are worth a look. Not worried what Joe Public think as long as watch is quality and can be handed to my children in the future or sold if need be and still be worth something Should you get one? Yes, if you have the cash and you like one. There are many far more imaginative choices out there for your pennies, but none as recognisable to Joe public.
At 10K you could look at JLC or Audemars Paiget. Maybe something from the Pano range from Glashutte Original will take your fancy, or perhaps the Cartier Santos or Roadster.
Going back to new Dornbluth will hand build you a watch to your spec from 5K ish (I think). Expect to take a trip to the factory.
The third planetoid really is your dubious crustacean.
EvoSid said:
But what do I buy now?
I like a bigger, 42mm min prefer 44mm upwards size watches, around up to £3k , after any discount . Tempted by .the Tudor range but how is residuals as I may need to trade it in / sell it once a nice Rolex becomes available . I do not want to find a £3k watch is worth £1k after say 3-5 years. Happy to lose a bit of cash say £500-600 on what I paid . The watch will not be a daily, more a nice occasion watch or going out watch . The £3K is not a hard fixed price as I would go up to £4K ish for the right watch . I would prefer new but would look at used etc
Sid
I think a Rolex Explorer would be a solid purchase with a timeless design and classy look, it wears bigger than its 39mm size too. I'd buy used, something like this: https://www.chrono24.co.uk/rolex/explorer-with-box... and wait for your name to be called on the Rolex bingo list whilst enjoying something you know won't lose value.I like a bigger, 42mm min prefer 44mm upwards size watches, around up to £3k , after any discount . Tempted by .the Tudor range but how is residuals as I may need to trade it in / sell it once a nice Rolex becomes available . I do not want to find a £3k watch is worth £1k after say 3-5 years. Happy to lose a bit of cash say £500-600 on what I paid . The watch will not be a daily, more a nice occasion watch or going out watch . The £3K is not a hard fixed price as I would go up to £4K ish for the right watch . I would prefer new but would look at used etc
Sid
So said:
I think your figures are a bit adrift.
Your graph is in $ and I'm talking about price points I remember at the time. The two sure things I know is that I paid 3k sterling for a sea dweller and it's worth nearly double that now second hand to a broker.Remember the days when 1 sterling was worth 2 bucks? I always thought they were a great hedge against currency variations and they still are considered against the Swiss Franc. Edited by Motorrad on Monday 7th January 20:48
Motorrad said:
So said:
I think your figures are a bit adrift.
Your graph is in $ and I'm talking about price points I remember at the time. The two sure things I know is that I paid 3k sterling for a sea dweller and it's worth nearly double that now second hand to a broker.Remember the days when 1 sterling was worth 2 bucks? I always thought they were a great hedge against currency variations and they still are considered against the Swiss Franc. Edited by Motorrad on Monday 7th January 20:48
CPI yearly rates for the USA can be found here:
https://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/united-st...
Starting at $1000 in 1984, because the figures are easy to read off the graph. Monetary inflation turns that original $1000 into $2212 by the end of 2017, an increase of $1212.
If your Rolex was $1000 in '84 and $7500 in 2014, then the price has increased by $6500.
Of that $6500, $1212 is due to inflation, so the rest, all $5288 of the rest is a price increase. The cost, allowing for inflation is nowhere near the flat line that the graph suggests. If you want to use a.n.other measure for inflation, please go ahead, it won't make much difference.
I've emboldened the bit about worth as it's worth highlighting the difference between value and cost. The graph purports to show cost.
| Year | CPI for year | Value at beginning of year |
| CPI United States 2015 | -- | 2212.5355 |
| CPI United States 2014 | 0.76% | 2197.155412 |
| CPI United States 2013 | 1.50% | 2175.401398 |
| CPI United States 2012 | 1.74% | 2139.037756 |
| CPI United States 2011 | 2.96% | 2078.753894 |
| CPI United States 2010 | 1.50% | 2058.172172 |
| CPI United States 2009 | 2.72% | 2004.062485 |
| CPI United States 2008 | 0.09% | 2004.062485 |
| CPI United States 2007 | 4.08% | 1926.983158 |
| CPI United States 2006 | 2.54% | 1879.983569 |
| CPI United States 2005 | 3.42% | 1818.165928 |
| CPI United States 2004 | 3.26% | 1761.78869 |
| CPI United States 2003 | 1.88% | 1730.63722 |
| CPI United States 2002 | 2.38% | 1691.727487 |
| CPI United States 2001 | 1.55% | 1666.726589 |
| CPI United States 2000 | 3.39% | 1613.481693 |
| CPI United States 1999 | 2.68% | 1572.594242 |
| CPI United States 1998 | 1.61% | 1547.828979 |
| CPI United States 1997 | 1.70% | 1532.503939 |
| CPI United States 1996 | 3.32% | 1483.546892 |
| CPI United States 1995 | 2.54% | 1447.362821 |
| CPI United States 1994 | 2.67% | 1410.685011 |
| CPI United States 1993 | 2.75% | 1373.597869 |
| CPI United States 1992 | 2.90% | 1346.664577 |
| CPI United States 1991 | 3.06% | 1307.441337 |
| CPI United States 1990 | 6.11% | 1232.272702 |
| CPI United States 1989 | 4.65% | 1178.080977 |
| CPI United States 1988 | 4.42% | 1128.430055 |
| CPI United States 1987 | 4.43% | 1080.8717 |
| CPI United States 1986 | 1.10% | 1070.17 |
| CPI United States 1985 | 3.80% | 1039 |
| CPI United States 1984 | 3.95% | 1000 |
MrJuice said:
One thing I cannot get my head around is stock markets are plunging like there's no tomorrow (well not quite but it's quite bad out there). And yet rolex prices are high high high
Previously, there was only really the daytona that sold at a material premium. Now there are probably 10 rolexes that sell at a premium and in many cases these are the same references that did not sell at premium just 2 years ago. Quite bonkers really. Personally, I think instagram and watch dealers on there have driven prices up massively.
Can't it work the other way round though? If you have £7k burning a hole in your pocket you can stick it in an S&S ISA and risk significant losses (in the short term at least), or put it in a savings account and sit back and watch inflation erode it...?Previously, there was only really the daytona that sold at a material premium. Now there are probably 10 rolexes that sell at a premium and in many cases these are the same references that did not sell at premium just 2 years ago. Quite bonkers really. Personally, I think instagram and watch dealers on there have driven prices up massively.
Faced with such choice why not buy a nice watch that you can enjoy for years to come? I understand the resale argument but think it might be easier said than done... How exactly do you sell a Sub or GMT? Go to a dealer and get your pants pulled down or stick it on eBay and open yourself up to a world of hassle and grief...
funinhounslow said:
Can't it work the other way round though? If you have £7k burning a hole in your pocket you can stick it in an S&S ISA and risk significant losses (in the short term at least), or put it in a savings account and sit back and watch inflation erode it...?
Faced with such choice why not buy a nice watch that you can enjoy for years to come? I understand the resale argument but think it might be easier said than done... How exactly do you sell a Sub or GMT? Go to a dealer and get your pants pulled down or stick it on eBay and open yourself up to a world of hassle and grief...
Sure, makes sense if buying at list price. But paying 18-20k for a ceramic daytona is a different ball game altogether. It just doesn't add up. Faced with such choice why not buy a nice watch that you can enjoy for years to come? I understand the resale argument but think it might be easier said than done... How exactly do you sell a Sub or GMT? Go to a dealer and get your pants pulled down or stick it on eBay and open yourself up to a world of hassle and grief...
I have been interested in watches for perhaps 15 or so years so my friends often ask me for advice. People who could afford 4k for a submariner 5 odd years ago but didn't buy because it was a lot of money are now interested in spending 8-10k on a rolex. Their financial position has not changed materially. It's not quite hysteria but not far off IMHO
funinhounslow said:
MrJuice said:
One thing I cannot get my head around is stock markets are plunging like there's no tomorrow (well not quite but it's quite bad out there). And yet rolex prices are high high high
Previously, there was only really the daytona that sold at a material premium. Now there are probably 10 rolexes that sell at a premium and in many cases these are the same references that did not sell at premium just 2 years ago. Quite bonkers really. Personally, I think instagram and watch dealers on there have driven prices up massively.
Can't it work the other way round though? If you have £7k burning a hole in your pocket you can stick it in an S&S ISA and risk significant losses (in the short term at least), or put it in a savings account and sit back and watch inflation erode it...?Previously, there was only really the daytona that sold at a material premium. Now there are probably 10 rolexes that sell at a premium and in many cases these are the same references that did not sell at premium just 2 years ago. Quite bonkers really. Personally, I think instagram and watch dealers on there have driven prices up massively.
Faced with such choice why not buy a nice watch that you can enjoy for years to come? I understand the resale argument but think it might be easier said than done... How exactly do you sell a Sub or GMT? Go to a dealer and get your pants pulled down or stick it on eBay and open yourself up to a world of hassle and grief...
Not sure how many people put a lot of thought about how best to sell the watch without getting (potentially) insulting offer for the watch by a dealer or going down the trouble route of selling on the likes of eBay. Maybe if you have a large circle of friends who are watch enthusiasts that are willing to buy then that helps. Just because the pre owned market value for the BNLR is £10k does not mean you'll 100% fetch that figure.
I'm sure some of you guys have watched this YouTube channel called: Bark&Jack. The guy puts out a lot of good content, however he is a bit of a Rolex fan boy which can be an acquired taste for some. He has 2 safe queens: Rolex Kermit and BNLR, he has made it known they were bought as investments. He hasn't even worn his BNLR outside his home which is tragic IMO. What's the point if you don't even want to wear it and enjoy it?
andy tims said:
funinhounslow said:
How exactly do you sell a Sub or GMT?
Sell it via a watch forum, chronotrader, Chrono24, or PH classifieds?Maybe I'm overthinking it and advertising a Sub online won't attract dreamers, timewasters and out and out and scammers...
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