Has the Rolex bubble finally burst? Perhaps it has

Has the Rolex bubble finally burst? Perhaps it has

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Discussion

romeodelta

1,113 posts

160 months

Tuesday 18th February 2020
quotequote all
El stovey said:
PistonGuy66 said:
El stovey said:
PistonGuy66 said:
I wish you were right about AD windows looking like the above but im afraid it wouldnt help you much as i think they are display models only! It just gets better and better at Rolex. So just to explain why i say that.I was in Geneva airport yesterday and popped into the AD there as there had almost the same watches in there window,i had a look inside the shop,when the lady clocked my S/S daytona she asked if there was anything i was intrested in,yes i said cani have a look at the Explorer 2 and the Millgaus,fine she said,i had a try on of both and said yes i will take both. Sorry she said but they are not for sale they are display models,infact they dont even have any guts in them! WTF!!!! Its almost like they are taking the piss now lol
I thought this seemed unlikely so I asked Rolex about it and they confirmed you are 100% correct.

The boutique in Geneva airport has display only models.

Which is in itself even a rare thing for an AD to have.

Thought you’d like to know, especially since I and others suggested you might be wrong or misled by the boutique.
Well thank you sir, it makes a nice change on here for someone to agree. To be fair it does sound a bit made up what i said,which makes it even worse on Rolex when its actually true!! Its like i said before its like they are taking the p..s now out of there customers.
Rolex said it was extremely rare and only happens in a few boutiques, it’s so clients can see and touch the watches apparently.
A local AD now has a small sign that says "For exhibition only" in the window, so assuming they are movement-less.

To me, this corroborates that Rolex do have more production capacity. Why not just chuck a movement in these 'display' models and sell them?

So

26,271 posts

221 months

Tuesday 18th February 2020
quotequote all
romeodelta said:
To me, this corroborates that Rolex do have more production capacity. Why not just chuck a movement in these 'display' models and sell them?
Why would they do that?

Tony1963

4,699 posts

161 months

Tuesday 18th February 2020
quotequote all
romeodelta said:
A local AD now has a small sign that says "For exhibition only" in the window, so assuming they are movement-less.

To me, this corroborates that Rolex do have more production capacity. Why not just chuck a movement in these 'display' models and sell them?
And what if the manufacture of the movements is the bottleneck?

So

26,271 posts

221 months

Tuesday 18th February 2020
quotequote all
Tony1963 said:
romeodelta said:
A local AD now has a small sign that says "For exhibition only" in the window, so assuming they are movement-less.

To me, this corroborates that Rolex do have more production capacity. Why not just chuck a movement in these 'display' models and sell them?
And what if the manufacture of the movements is the bottleneck?
Is there a bottleneck?

lostkiwi

4,584 posts

123 months

Tuesday 18th February 2020
quotequote all
So said:
Tony1963 said:
romeodelta said:
A local AD now has a small sign that says "For exhibition only" in the window, so assuming they are movement-less.

To me, this corroborates that Rolex do have more production capacity. Why not just chuck a movement in these 'display' models and sell them?
And what if the manufacture of the movements is the bottleneck?
Is there a bottleneck?
I'd be surprised if a company the size of Rolex producing in excess of 750,000 watches a year couldn't increase production if there was a desire to do so.
Personally I suspect they are manipulating supply to increase price.

So

26,271 posts

221 months

Tuesday 18th February 2020
quotequote all
lostkiwi said:
So said:
Tony1963 said:
romeodelta said:
A local AD now has a small sign that says "For exhibition only" in the window, so assuming they are movement-less.

To me, this corroborates that Rolex do have more production capacity. Why not just chuck a movement in these 'display' models and sell them?
And what if the manufacture of the movements is the bottleneck?
Is there a bottleneck?
I'd be surprised if a company the size of Rolex producing in excess of 750,000 watches a year couldn't increase production if there was a desire to do so.
Personally I suspect they are manipulating supply to increase price.
I think they are doing it to restore some cachet to the brand. But didn't we say all this a couple of pages back?

romeodelta

1,113 posts

160 months

Tuesday 18th February 2020
quotequote all
So said:
lostkiwi said:
So said:
Tony1963 said:
romeodelta said:
A local AD now has a small sign that says "For exhibition only" in the window, so assuming they are movement-less.

To me, this corroborates that Rolex do have more production capacity. Why not just chuck a movement in these 'display' models and sell them?
And what if the manufacture of the movements is the bottleneck?
Is there a bottleneck?
I'd be surprised if a company the size of Rolex producing in excess of 750,000 watches a year couldn't increase production if there was a desire to do so.
Personally I suspect they are manipulating supply to increase price.
I think they are doing it to restore some cachet to the brand. But didn't we say all this a couple of pages back?
Agreed, this is my view too.

I was just countering the argument that someone mentioned they couldn’t simply increase production.

Tony1963

4,699 posts

161 months

Tuesday 18th February 2020
quotequote all
Well think of it this way:

The title of this thread raises the question of whether the ‘bubble’ is about to burst. And, if/when it does, would Rolex want excess capacity? With all that entails?

So

26,271 posts

221 months

Tuesday 18th February 2020
quotequote all
Tony1963 said:
Well think of it this way:

The title of this thread raises the question of whether the ‘bubble’ is about to burst. And, if/when it does, would Rolex want excess capacity? With all that entails?
More accurately the title of this thread asks whether the bubble HAS burst. It seems that we have established that it has deflated somewhat.

Tony1963

4,699 posts

161 months

Tuesday 18th February 2020
quotequote all
So said:
More accurately the title of this thread asks whether the bubble HAS burst. It seems that we have established that it has deflated somewhat.
So the extra capacity would now be a problem.

anonymous-user

53 months

Tuesday 18th February 2020
quotequote all
So said:
Tony1963 said:
Well think of it this way:

The title of this thread raises the question of whether the ‘bubble’ is about to burst. And, if/when it does, would Rolex want excess capacity? With all that entails?
More accurately the title of this thread asks whether the bubble HAS burst. It seems that we have established that it has deflated somewhat.
Has it even deflated? Prices (if that’s the indicator) seem to be holding on all the popular ss watches and Rolex are now having to put pretend watches in showrooms so we can see and touch them. hehe

I’ll only think the bubble has burst when second hand prices are obviously dropping below list and there are SS subs and GMTs and Daytonas in the shop windows again.

JEA1K

2,485 posts

222 months

Tuesday 18th February 2020
quotequote all
El stovey said:
Has it even deflated? Prices (if that’s the indicator) seem to be holding on all the popular ss watches and Rolex are now having to put pretend watches in showrooms so we can see and touch them. hehe

I’ll only think the bubble has burst when second hand prices are obviously dropping below list and there are SS subs and GMTs and Daytonas in the shop windows again.
Precisely as I see it. There's no bursting of any bubble, nor is there a deflation. Flippers would be the first to drop their pants and its not happening as yet.

andy tims

5,571 posts

245 months

Tuesday 18th February 2020
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I don't follow the pricing too closely, but I do have a saved search on Chrono24 for Ceramic Bezel Daytona's and they still seem to me to be getting more expensive.

don logan

3,511 posts

221 months

Tuesday 18th February 2020
quotequote all
So said:
More accurately the title of this thread asks whether the bubble HAS burst. It seems that we have established that it has deflated somewhat.
Really? Which models?

Aside from that BULLst farce of a “sale” that kickstarted this thread!

So

26,271 posts

221 months

Tuesday 18th February 2020
quotequote all
don logan said:
So said:
More accurately the title of this thread asks whether the bubble HAS burst. It seems that we have established that it has deflated somewhat.
Really? Which models?

Aside from that BULLst farce of a “sale” that kickstarted this thread!
Didn't we discover that sought after models were coming to market (for example via TZ) at more sensible prices? Please correct me if I have made that up.

gizlaroc

17,251 posts

223 months

Tuesday 18th February 2020
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Good point, while people are paying more for a used watch than a new one no bubble has burst.

So

26,271 posts

221 months

Tuesday 18th February 2020
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gizlaroc said:
Good point, while people are paying more for a used watch than a new one no bubble has burst.
No these were new and stickered if I recall correctly. Still at a premium, but a more modest one.

Dezbo

179 posts

82 months

Tuesday 18th February 2020
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Question for you all: how could Rolex keep the brand cachet which I think is important for a lot of people (including me, I won’t lie) but stop the flippers (assuming they would want to)? Personally I would be ok with going on a genuine waiting list if I knew there would be a definite watch at the end. I also don’t have a problem with people selling because they want to change the watch, liquidate the asset, etc but the number of less than a year old unworn watches on the grey market is infuriating!

jimmythingy

312 posts

61 months

Tuesday 18th February 2020
quotequote all
Rolex are playing a blinder, they are trying to keep the bubble from bursting! Brand is everything to them and the more exclusive they make it the better for them. It doesnt help anyone trying to buy one though, unless you have the contacts or deep pockets.

I think the value of the brand on the balance sheet outweighs the extra profit they could make by increasing production.

don logan

3,511 posts

221 months

Tuesday 18th February 2020
quotequote all
So said:
Didn't we discover that sought after models were coming to market (for example via TZ) at more sensible prices? Please correct me if I have made that up.
Did “we”??? Which models? The only thing I’ve noticed is an influx of BLNRs since the Oyster bracelet version was discintinued and people thought they could cash in!

And what constitutes sensible? £14k for a Hulk instead of £15k??!

The “usual suspects” are harder to get hold of than ever before, that isn’t going to bring prices down, IF they have reduced in the last 3-4 months it’s by a pathetic amount, even black dial Explorer 2s get a premium now!

Edited by don logan on Tuesday 18th February 23:36