Has the Rolex bubble finally burst? Perhaps it has

Has the Rolex bubble finally burst? Perhaps it has

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Discussion

OFORBES

533 posts

99 months

Sunday 15th March 2020
quotequote all
Crackedwinscreen said:
OFORBES said:
Crackedwinscreen said:
Certainly a correction going on:

Watchfinder bid for the new GMT 2 Pepsi on the jubilee bracelet, all papers and boxes: £12.5k two months ago.

Today’s bid on the same watch £8750.

Watchfinder are still asking £16+k for the watch on their website so they are either very overstocked or anticipate a significant price correction to come. I appreciate they are at the ridiculous end of the price spectrum.

Rolex will need to place the 800k watches they produce a year somewhere, perhaps the Far East allocations are being redistributed. Obviously COVID-19 is not going to help. I see the ceramic models dropping down to much more sustainable levels with most available in the used market for a little over list in the months to come.
Blimey, I hope they haven't dropped that much in the last week, they offered me £12k for my GMT 2 Pepsi two weeks ago!! eek
Ouch. That makes me feel a little sick.. vomit

OFORBES

533 posts

99 months

Sunday 15th March 2020
quotequote all
I’ve just checked on Chrono24 website and over the last week values have risen (admittedly minutely) but they haven’t been dropping, well on my small collection they haven’t. Odd.

Perhaps you’re all right, watchfinder are betting on people desperately trying to liquidate their assets and are predicting a big price drop...

anonymous-user

53 months

Sunday 15th March 2020
quotequote all
OFORBES said:
I’ve just checked on Chrono24 website and over the last week values have risen (admittedly minutely) but they haven’t been dropping, well on my small collection they haven’t. Odd.

Perhaps you’re all right, watchfinder are betting on people desperately trying to liquidate their assets and are predicting a big price drop...
Or maybe watchfinder themselves need to make sales to cover an overall decline in buyers across the board.

Like any other business they’re likely to be having cash flow problems as they’ve got physical shops and rents and staff etc

shopper150

1,576 posts

193 months

Sunday 15th March 2020
quotequote all
El stovey said:
OFORBES said:
I’ve just checked on Chrono24 website and over the last week values have risen (admittedly minutely) but they haven’t been dropping, well on my small collection they haven’t. Odd.

Perhaps you’re all right, watchfinder are betting on people desperately trying to liquidate their assets and are predicting a big price drop...
Or maybe watchfinder themselves need to make sales to cover an overall decline in buyers across the board.

Like any other business they’re likely to be having cash flow problems as they’ve got physical shops and rents and staff etc
Agree.
I believe they are owned by Richemont and hence their corporate bods will be braced for a huge decline in sales.
They will also be ready to be there for over-leveraged people who need to liquidate their 'assets' fast, and will be offering rock bottom prices for at least the next few months I suspect.


Edited by shopper150 on Sunday 15th March 22:32

Wills2

22,666 posts

174 months

Monday 16th March 2020
quotequote all
Crackedwinscreen said:
OFORBES said:
Crackedwinscreen said:
Certainly a correction going on:

Watchfinder bid for the new GMT 2 Pepsi on the jubilee bracelet, all papers and boxes: £12.5k two months ago.

Today’s bid on the same watch £8750.

Watchfinder are still asking £16+k for the watch on their website so they are either very overstocked or anticipate a significant price correction to come. I appreciate they are at the ridiculous end of the price spectrum.

Rolex will need to place the 800k watches they produce a year somewhere, perhaps the Far East allocations are being redistributed. Obviously COVID-19 is not going to help. I see the ceramic models dropping down to much more sustainable levels with most available in the used market for a little over list in the months to come.
Blimey, I hope they haven't dropped that much in the last week, they offered me £12k for my GMT 2 Pepsi two weeks ago!! eek
TBF the bid starts at £8400 but it's no surprise the spread is widening and not just on Rolex, they offered me 50% of their "retail" recently on a Omega planet ocean...I won't be selling, I'd hang on to your GMT as well or sell it privately as they have given you a huge spread to play in.





LaurasOtherHalf

21,429 posts

195 months

Tuesday 17th March 2020
quotequote all
I mentioned this on TZ, but a grey dealer I know can’t keep up with demand from outside the uk due to the pound week ending again.

His business is flying, short term at least.

itlab

142 posts

62 months

Tuesday 17th March 2020
quotequote all
they have just closed their factories for 10 days, that should reduce even further the number of new watches and should help with maintaining the bubble

https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/rolex-closes-swi...

  • edited due to pedantry below***
Edited by itlab on Tuesday 17th March 09:40

Tony1963

4,699 posts

161 months

Tuesday 17th March 2020
quotequote all
Their

Voldemort

6,086 posts

277 months

Tuesday 17th March 2020
quotequote all
Tony1963 said:
Their
I'm sure we all appreciate your helpful correction.

For myself, I was struggling to comprehend the posters' intention and was hoping somebody with too much time on their hands and an overbearing sense of self-importance would be able to assist. And, boom! - there you were in our hour of need.

CorrosionInhibitor

375 posts

96 months

Tuesday 17th March 2020
quotequote all
Ive recently been offered a 2018 gmt root beer at list via a good friend, is this a good buy at the min ?

Zoon

6,654 posts

120 months

Tuesday 17th March 2020
quotequote all
CorrosionInhibitor said:
Ive recently been offered a 2018 gmt root beer at list via a good friend, is this a good buy at the min ?
If you don't need the money in the event of a worldwide apocalypse then yes.

OFORBES

533 posts

99 months

Tuesday 17th March 2020
quotequote all
I use the Chrono24 app to track the values of my small watch collection and again today they have risen when I was expecting them to be dropping significantly.

I wonder if that 10 week factory closure will add to that

Ninjin

1,174 posts

74 months

Tuesday 17th March 2020
quotequote all
CorrosionInhibitor said:
Ive recently been offered a 2018 gmt root beer at list via a good friend, is this a good buy at the min ?
If your friend bought it at list price in 2018, then if he sold it to you today's list price, then he's made £1k from you already.

That's more profit than he would get from selling it to a grey dealer.

Rootbeer's although beautiful and my personal favourite, are not that hard to come by at present.

My friend picked up 2 (Dec before price rise from WoS and one in Feb from Harrods). He kept the first one and let his friend have the 2nd rather than flip it.

jonah35

3,940 posts

156 months

Tuesday 17th March 2020
quotequote all
Who knows what will happen

Maybe people will come out of shares and into tangible stuff like Rolexes

In Lebanon recently people were using Rolexes as currency!

Monies in a bank account can be easily seized by a govt or taxed etc

Bit apocalyptic I know but an asset tax may come in to help pay for all this govt spending


andy97

4,691 posts

221 months

Tuesday 17th March 2020
quotequote all
El stovey said:
Or maybe watchfinder themselves need to make sales to cover an overall decline in buyers across the board.

Like any other business they’re likely to be having cash flow problems as they’ve got physical shops and rents and staff etc
They have certainly been pushing a Breitling sale, with some quite significant discounts.

OFORBES

533 posts

99 months

Tuesday 17th March 2020
quotequote all
andy97 said:
They have certainly been pushing a Breitling sale, with some quite significant discounts.
I've been getting those emails daily as well. I had to have a chat with myself when I found myself happy browsing after clicking the link....

What am I thinking!?

Ikemi

8,438 posts

204 months

Thursday 19th March 2020
quotequote all
Rolex has closed it's factory and unsurprisingly, predicts poor sales this year. I doubt many people will be purchasing high-end luxury watches this year - and perhaps next year. Do you think new/second hand prices may drop? Otherwise, do you think people will 'invest' more of their cash in safe-based collections and increase demand/prices?

anonymous-user

53 months

Thursday 19th March 2020
quotequote all
Ikemi said:
Rolex has closed it's factory and unsurprisingly, predicts poor sales this year. I doubt many people will be purchasing high-end luxury watches this year - and perhaps next year. Do you think new/second hand prices may drop? Otherwise, do you think people will 'invest' more of their cash in safe-based collections and increase demand/prices?
I know a lot of people very worried about their jobs and sources of income, cancelling subscriptions, gym memberships, taking kids out of private schools etc.

The contagion to many industries will be hopefully only a few months but it will happen and people will need to free up cash and that might mean selling their Rolex. Especially if part of the reason for buying was as an investment.

The bubble is all about the grey market imho. It hasn’t popped yet though.


andy97

4,691 posts

221 months

Thursday 19th March 2020
quotequote all
OFORBES said:
andy97 said:
They have certainly been pushing a Breitling sale, with some quite significant discounts.
I've been getting those emails daily as well. I had to have a chat with myself when I found myself happy browsing after clicking the link....

What am I thinking!?
I made an offer on one of their cheaper Navitimers but was told that they had already been heavily discounted and they were on offer at a fixed price. I left it but noticed a day later that both I was possibly interested in were no longer on sale so someone bought them. The sale is now over. I wonder if they would take that offer now, lol?!

Titfer

218 posts

49 months

Thursday 19th March 2020
quotequote all
If the "Rolex Bubble" survives this then we truly believe they have the magic formula.


I'd think most people will just keep hold of theirs so they don't have to accept the "paper loss"