Has the Rolex bubble finally burst? Perhaps it has
Discussion
Pflanzgarten said:
You’re the one shouting off about a 50% drop in Rolex prices over a couple of months, not me? All I asked for was your evidence.
The simple fact is a relatively easy to get hold of precious metal Rolex, let’s say for instance a rose gold Daytona on oyster flex jumped massively in 2022.
These were pretty easy to come by at list a year or so ago, then shot up to £35k end of last year and then people were asking (and paying granted) up to £50k in early 2022.
Now, down to late forties and some are asking late thirties for ones a few years old.
So let’s say I walked into a jewellers with this;
A real jewellers by the way, not some “consignment” Johnny come lately. What do you think they would offer me cash?
Answer? I’d bet a sizeable chunk it wouldn’t be much different from 6 or 12 months ago.
And no where near what some are asking.
There’s a huge amount of smoke and mirrors going on with watch “traders”, shouting from the rooftops about a 50% fall in prices only adds to it.
That’s beautiful 🤩 The simple fact is a relatively easy to get hold of precious metal Rolex, let’s say for instance a rose gold Daytona on oyster flex jumped massively in 2022.
These were pretty easy to come by at list a year or so ago, then shot up to £35k end of last year and then people were asking (and paying granted) up to £50k in early 2022.
Now, down to late forties and some are asking late thirties for ones a few years old.
So let’s say I walked into a jewellers with this;
A real jewellers by the way, not some “consignment” Johnny come lately. What do you think they would offer me cash?
Answer? I’d bet a sizeable chunk it wouldn’t be much different from 6 or 12 months ago.
And no where near what some are asking.
There’s a huge amount of smoke and mirrors going on with watch “traders”, shouting from the rooftops about a 50% fall in prices only adds to it.
Pflanzgarten said:
PS,
Apologies if some found my post offensive. I have a decent amount of experience and knowledge about the official Rolex dealership business, the proper grey market dealers and flippers.
I can answer any questions but I’m not having sensationalism banded about like 50% discount ones Rolex price crash and not pulling someone up in it.
I’ve read this thread for a long time and resisted posting as I know the internet market crashers would like to jump on anything positive to be said.
There is a lot still positive about the watch game (which I love and have dabbled in for over 20 years).
Think it’s fair to say prices recently got ahead of themselves and are now more realistic.Apologies if some found my post offensive. I have a decent amount of experience and knowledge about the official Rolex dealership business, the proper grey market dealers and flippers.
I can answer any questions but I’m not having sensationalism banded about like 50% discount ones Rolex price crash and not pulling someone up in it.
I’ve read this thread for a long time and resisted posting as I know the internet market crashers would like to jump on anything positive to be said.
There is a lot still positive about the watch game (which I love and have dabbled in for over 20 years).
White dial Ceramic bezel Daytona (Panda)……Poster boy of Rolex range (bit like myself
) started year at 32……was offered at 50 in the recent silly season and now back to 34. (All WF prices). Unch on year but -32% off highs.
Crash…..not quite
Bubble burst…air has been released
More realistic prices……..for sure
Going forward prices will probably drift a little lower as peeps on lists aren’t so inclined to take their allocation…….premiums have dropped/they’ve lost on Bitcoin/shares/increase in general cost of living and decline in feel good factor as property corrects 10% by Crimbo/over the next 6 months.
We are all privileged to own these watches.
Peace and love to all X
Edited by 981SPYGANG on Friday 24th June 18:27
Edited by 981SPYGANG on Friday 24th June 18:28
Edited by 981SPYGANG on Friday 24th June 18:30
Pflanzgarten said:
Answer? I’d bet a sizeable chunk it wouldn’t be much different from 6 or 12 months ago.
And no where near what some are asking.
There’s a huge amount of smoke and mirrors going on with watch “traders”, shouting from the rooftops about a 50% fall in prices only adds to it.
On this particular rolex model, competition has arrived though, it took Zenith years but its finally arrived on the market.And no where near what some are asking.
There’s a huge amount of smoke and mirrors going on with watch “traders”, shouting from the rooftops about a 50% fall in prices only adds to it.
And as for the two-tone Zenith model thats not out yet, i don't want to fondle it as i fear my bank account will be emptied shortly after.
Carl_Manchester said:
On this particular rolex model, competition has arrived though, it took Zenith years but its finally arrived on the market.
And as for the two-tone Zenith model thats not out yet, i don't want to fondle it as i fear my bank account will be emptied shortly after.
That's quite the taste-bypass. And as for the two-tone Zenith model thats not out yet, i don't want to fondle it as i fear my bank account will be emptied shortly after.
CharlesdeGaulle said:
Carl_Manchester said:
That's quite the taste-bypass. Pflanzgarten said:
You’re the one shouting off about a 50% drop in Rolex prices over a couple of months, not me? All I asked for was your evidence.
There’s a huge amount of smoke and mirrors going on with watch “traders”, shouting from the rooftops about a 50% fall in prices only adds to it.
Happy to agree to disagree here - I'd hate to be partly responsible for anarchy in a sub forum where a load of blokes are discussing watches that cost tens of thousands of pounds There’s a huge amount of smoke and mirrors going on with watch “traders”, shouting from the rooftops about a 50% fall in prices only adds to it.
As others have rightly said, we are privileged to be in the position to even be discussing such things. I will be more mindful of how I word things. I am seeing certain popular models changing hands at around 50% less than previous/recent asking prices, and seeing other models where asking prices are 20% + less than they were 2 months ago (including some PM Rolex, and stainless AP/VC/Patek).
I certainly didn't intend to give the impression every single watch is going at 50% off, which would be an exaggeration.
Not sure if the RG Daytona is yours, congrats if so as it's a beauty
DavidCBevan said:
It will be until your eyesight changes, then like ,me, you'll need something that you can read without trying to find your reading glasses in the middle of the night. Believe me, that day will come. And you will unerstand that there are some "inferior" watches fit the bill.
lowdrag said:
DavidCBevan said:
It will be until your eyesight changes, then like ,me, you'll need something that you can read without trying to find your reading glasses in the middle of the night. Believe me, that day will come. And you will unerstand that there are some "inferior" watches fit the bill.
si
800 said:
800 said: That being said none give me the same warm fuzzy feeling my now 7 year old GMT Master II which I wouldn't sell ever at any price.
With the bubble deflating/bursting/however people want to define it I have hope that I can acquire a stainless Daytona to keep forever, and perhaps a precious metal pieces (white gold GMT or RG Yachtmaster) at some point.
I'm with you on the GMT.With the bubble deflating/bursting/however people want to define it I have hope that I can acquire a stainless Daytona to keep forever, and perhaps a precious metal pieces (white gold GMT or RG Yachtmaster) at some point.
The nail in the coffin for my Daytona was when I collected a rose gold gmt (rootbeer) a couple of months ago.
I was offered this over the other 'rootbeer' I originally requested; I had never seen one and thought I really wouldn't like it, however, as soon as I tried it on I was blown away.
The Daytona had never been worn in anger, but although stunning, it was just too small for my wrist.
I knew that I would never wear that, so it became the only one I have ever sold.
Went to a really nice guy i am still in touch with.
paulguitar said:
Wheelspinning said:
The Daytona had never been worn in anger
I'm not up with all of the watch terms, what does this one mean!?I have a sneaking suspicion you knew that though.
Wills2 said:
paulguitar said:
Wheelspinning said:
The Daytona had never been worn in anger
I'm not up with all of the watch terms, what does this one mean!?I have a sneaking suspicion you knew that though.
Wills2 said:
paulguitar said:
Wheelspinning said:
The Daytona had never been worn in anger
I'm not up with all of the watch terms, what does this one mean!?I have a sneaking suspicion you knew that though.
981SPYGANG said:
...
Going forward prices will probably drift a little lower as peeps on lists aren’t so inclined to take their allocation…….premiums have dropped/they’ve lost on Bitcoin/shares/increase in general cost of living and decline in feel good factor as property corrects 10% by Crimbo/over the next 6 months.
...
O/T, but... only 10%? lolGoing forward prices will probably drift a little lower as peeps on lists aren’t so inclined to take their allocation…….premiums have dropped/they’ve lost on Bitcoin/shares/increase in general cost of living and decline in feel good factor as property corrects 10% by Crimbo/over the next 6 months.
...
si800 said:
800 said:Pflanzgarten said:
You’re the one shouting off about a 50% drop in Rolex prices over a couple of months, not me? All I asked for was your evidence.
There’s a huge amount of smoke and mirrors going on with watch “traders”, shouting from the rooftops about a 50% fall in prices only adds to it.
Happy to agree to disagree here - I'd hate to be partly responsible for anarchy in a sub forum where a load of blokes are discussing watches that cost tens of thousands of pounds There’s a huge amount of smoke and mirrors going on with watch “traders”, shouting from the rooftops about a 50% fall in prices only adds to it.
As others have rightly said, we are privileged to be in the position to even be discussing such things. I will be more mindful of how I word things. I am seeing certain popular models changing hands at around 50% less than previous/recent asking prices, and seeing other models where asking prices are 20% + less than they were 2 months ago (including some PM Rolex, and stainless AP/VC/Patek).
I certainly didn't intend to give the impression every single watch is going at 50% off, which would be an exaggeration.
Not sure if the RG Daytona is yours, congrats if so as it's a beauty
The bit I highlighted above is where your argument is flawed imho. To go into detail;
The grey market has been pumped by the influx of recent/new traders. Call them what you will but these aren’t what is traditionally considered as the grey market. Some folk on this forum might call them instagrammers, influencers or whatever but in reality they can be anyone who has a source at an AD and decides to play the game.
In order to gain traction in a fast moving market they are offering most goods on sale or return (to use a car term everyone might understand).
Pretty much zero overheads but in reality zero protection for the seller as well.
These guys can pretty much sell a watch at somewhere around £1k margin, such was the ease of turnover. Five watches a month would be a good living!
It also meant offering prices on watch as near as made no difference to selling prices, which spiralled costs to buyers upwards.
Let’s take the old rose gold Daytona as an example.
RRP was around £23k, grey retail was around £35k and greys would offer around £28k cash.
Your new type would simply take it off your hands and push it out at grey market and perhaps give you £32k which would be pre agreed.
The point about spiralling prices upwards was anything the dealer would make above the pre agreed price to the seller was pure profit. So prices go up another grand, another grand profit.
Stick a couple of adverts up at £40k on eBay and C24, watch the market move up to maximise profits.
People go in about the 800k watches Rolex produce each year but in reality, the amounts are so tiny it’s an easy market to manipulate. Within six months the asking price becomes £50k.
Go see how many rose gold Daytonas made in 2021 there are available in the U.K. a dozen maybe?
What would the grey market dealer offer me now for the watch? I reckon it would still be around £28k
So you’ve seen asking prices of around £50k when the watch is still only worth £28k if you sell today. Yes somewhere in the world C24 has logged sales at the £50k mark but you only need one sale to show the market. Again, it’s very easy to manipulate for the price of a listing-not that I’m saying it’s all bulls
t, someone somewhere will have spent that money on them.Don’t get me wrong, by the same margin someone somewhere will have sold ones at around the £50k price point but I guarantee it’s fewer than you imagine.
Watches are still a safe haven for money laundering and tax avoidance.
Like buying forests, people will always buy and sell them for these reasons alone.
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