Suppose HS2 was cancelled

Author
Discussion

silvagod

1,053 posts

160 months

Thursday 9th March 2023
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Sheepshanks said:
towser44 said:
Its a waste of money, not just an opportunity. I live in Cheshire, about 1 and half miles from the proposed (now most likely never to go ahead) Crewe to Manchester section and they've spent a fortune already on buying properties and compensating those close enough to be affected as well as other stuff like surveying etc.
John Bishop really lucked out if it doesn't go ahead - HS2 bought his place in Cheshire off him for an insane price.
I've actually been part of the work that this section has generated. I have done asbestos surveys to lots of properties bought by the scheme (they were offering owners within 500m of the proposed track 25% above retail valuation for the houses) They are letting them at the moment so there is still an income but they were renovated prior to letting.

As for the other money already spent, there have been companies set up just to do the earth moving, hundreds of miles of fencing has already been bought and is in storage and that is only scratching the surface.

dudleybloke

19,820 posts

186 months

Thursday 9th March 2023
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I'll put a tenner on it ending up as a very narrow but very long new build estate.
smile

abzmike

8,373 posts

106 months

Friday 10th March 2023
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dudleybloke said:
I'll put a tenner on it ending up as a very narrow but very long new build estate.
smile
Just like the Line in Saudi Arabia, but straight through the Chilterns!

Richard-G

1,675 posts

175 months

Friday 10th March 2023
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Hs2 purchased the house over the road from me (easily worth 1 million) and the barn conversion next to me (700k) in around 2016. They then a few years back moved the track further away from the village so it's now around a mile away.

The people renting those properties, which are being rented for buttons in comparison to market value, have repeatedly asked if they can buy the properties and the answer is no.

Any idea why? They've probably made about 30% on them since purchase. I'm near lichfield, so brum to crewe route.

alscar

4,105 posts

213 months

Friday 10th March 2023
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Condi said:
They've also announced today that initially trains will stop at Old Oak Common, which seems a utterly stupid idea. Who is going to use a train service to London, that doesn't go to London?? Customers wanting anywhere other than the Western suburbs are going to have to get off a Old Oak Common then change to the tube and head in from there, making the journey to central longer than the existing options. While the government remain "committed" to reaching Euston, at least initially it is looking more like a white elephant initially if all it does is connect stations on the outskirts of Birmingham with stations on the outskirts of London.
It also negates the whole point of the original plan ie London to Birmingham and then beyond ( or not now ) easy and simple journey without changing trains.
If you want to go to Birmingham direct from central London you can - its called the Chiltern Line.
I'm not sure it really matters which party is in charge - none seem capable enough to either get it done or have the gumption to cancel it.

Sheepshanks

32,752 posts

119 months

Friday 10th March 2023
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silvagod said:
I've actually been part of the work that this section has generated. I have done asbestos surveys to lots of properties bought by the scheme (they were offering owners within 500m of the proposed track 25% above retail valuation for the houses) They are letting them at the moment so there is still an income but they were renovated prior to letting.
IIRC HS2 paid £7M for John Bishop's place that he bought for £2M and locally it was reckoned the price shouldn't have changed much as houses of that scale have a very limited market especially as it needed a lot of work. I believe HS2 have spent a fortune on it since.

Condi

17,188 posts

171 months

Friday 10th March 2023
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HIGNFY on point....


alscar

4,105 posts

213 months

Friday 10th March 2023
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smile

OutInTheShed

7,597 posts

26 months

Friday 10th March 2023
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alscar said:
It also negates the whole point of the original plan ie London to Birmingham and then beyond ...
Once upon a time the plan was high speed trains from England to Europe and even Scotland to Europe.

Teddy Lop

8,294 posts

67 months

Friday 10th March 2023
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Essarell said:
Condi said:
They've also announced today that initially trains will stop at Old Oak Common, which seems a utterly stupid idea. Who is going to use a train service to London, that doesn't go to London?? Customers wanting anywhere other than the Western suburbs are going to have to get off a Old Oak Common then change to the tube and head in from there, making the journey to central longer than the existing options. While the government remain "committed" to reaching Euston, at least initially it is looking more like a white elephant initially if all it does is connect stations on the outskirts of Birmingham with stations on the outskirts of London.
a complete disaster of a scheme, either build all of it or completely scrap it and the money could be much better spent elsewhere. The Old Oak Common side of London / M25 is already incredibly busy and adding another interchange will only make matters worse.
I don't understood the obsession with getting to a central London terminus - won't 99.9% of people using it have onward transit plans anyway?

I'd have made Stratford the high speed London terminus, several quick tube lines across London, close to the docklands business district, and trains could pass through direct to Europe. Or share the Eurostar line to st pancras if you must. Would've cost a fraction as you could follow the lea valley out and swerve the Chilterns with all that hoo-hah. You could even find an excuse to knock a bit of Edmonton down too just because, no one'll mind.

abzmike

8,373 posts

106 months

Friday 10th March 2023
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Teddy Lop said:
I don't understood the obsession with getting to a central London terminus - won't 99.9% of people using it have onward transit plans anyway?
Yes, probably 0.1% of passengers want to go to Acton. Aside from them I’d think there are two groups - one set are heading for London, and via the tube or overground to thier destination. These are not served by a high speed train stopping at Old Oak, and making them get to Paddington on the Elizabeth line to get to the connected network.
The other group are headed further away - Heathrow or. Central London rail terminals, including Eurostar. Arguably Liz Line to Heathrow is ok, but a second connection to London is horrible.
As it is shaping up - it’s mad.

silvagod

1,053 posts

160 months

Friday 10th March 2023
quotequote all
Sheepshanks said:
silvagod said:
I've actually been part of the work that this section has generated. I have done asbestos surveys to lots of properties bought by the scheme (they were offering owners within 500m of the proposed track 25% above retail valuation for the houses) They are letting them at the moment so there is still an income but they were renovated prior to letting.
IIRC HS2 paid £7M for John Bishop's place that he bought for £2M and locally it was reckoned the price shouldn't have changed much as houses of that scale have a very limited market especially as it needed a lot of work. I believe HS2 have spent a fortune on it since.
That wouldn't surprise me one bit, they have been splashing a lot of money of renovating properties

Condi

17,188 posts

171 months

Friday 10th March 2023
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Teddy Lop said:
I don't understood the obsession with getting to a central London terminus - won't 99.9% of people using it have onward transit plans anyway?
Onward transit plans to where? I would guess many people going to London will want to be in central London, in which case most destinations are either a walk, short taxi, or short tube destination away. Stopping at Old Oak, which is nowhere near central, and then changing to a very expensive taxi or much longer tube journey is nowhere near as convenient.

Chrisgr31

13,474 posts

255 months

Friday 10th March 2023
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abzmike said:
Yes, probably 0.1% of passengers want to go to Acton. Aside from them I’d think there are two groups - one set are heading for London, and via the tube or overground to thier destination. These are not served by a high speed train stopping at Old Oak, and making them get to Paddington on the Elizabeth line to get to the connected network.
The other group are headed further away - Heathrow or. Central London rail terminals, including Eurostar. Arguably Liz Line to Heathrow is ok, but a second connection to London is horrible.
As it is shaping up - it’s mad.
Old Oak Common is just adding an additional change for most customers. Any time saving is used in the additional time t get there

abzmike

8,373 posts

106 months

Saturday 11th March 2023
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Chrisgr31 said:
abzmike said:
Yes, probably 0.1% of passengers want to go to Acton. Aside from them I’d think there are two groups - one set are heading for London, and via the tube or overground to thier destination. These are not served by a high speed train stopping at Old Oak, and making them get to Paddington on the Elizabeth line to get to the connected network.
The other group are headed further away - Heathrow or. Central London rail terminals, including Eurostar. Arguably Liz Line to Heathrow is ok, but a second connection to London is horrible.
As it is shaping up - it’s mad.
Old Oak Common is just adding an additional change for most customers. Any time saving is used in the additional time t get there
Who wants the dicking about of another change? It’s changes that make transport painful.

Essarell

1,259 posts

54 months

Saturday 11th March 2023
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Given that HS2 (A-B etc) “were” part of our so called net zero national strategy, where does that leave us as a country?
The plan to take short haul flights out of the equation is also now obviously scrapped.
Moving large amounts of freight onto rail cannot now happen.
Are there any other major projects quietly ticking away or was the mega fast train set it?

andy97

4,703 posts

222 months

Saturday 11th March 2023
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Essarell said:
Are there any other major projects quietly ticking away or was the mega fast train set it?
There are loads of smaller Network rail projects.
Nuclear power.
Thames Tideway Tunnel.
The new lower Thames crossing.
Several defence projects


Teddy Lop

8,294 posts

67 months

Saturday 11th March 2023
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Condi said:
Teddy Lop said:
I don't understood the obsession with getting to a central London terminus - won't 99.9% of people using it have onward transit plans anyway?
Onward transit plans to where? I would guess many people going to London will want to be in central London, in which case most destinations are either a walk, short taxi, or short tube destination away. Stopping at Old Oak, which is nowhere near central, and then changing to a very expensive taxi or much longer tube journey is nowhere near as convenient.
From what do you draw this user profile? London's a big city; the walk/short taxi will be miniscule. Even getting from one terminus to another is public transport requirement.

Changing at a well connected hub therefore may be quicker than a terminus like Euston. (I'm not advocating for old oak that wasn't my point BTW, but depending where in London you want to be hopping onto the liz line or even the overground earlier will be beneficial for many. Everyone travels through the centre of London and out again because you have to, that's how it's all set up, the overground could have been better implemented as an outer-orbital but they kind of half arsed it and it's still quicker to in-out. But central London is heaving and something needs to change..)


Condi

17,188 posts

171 months

Saturday 11th March 2023
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Teddy Lop said:
From what do you draw this user profile? London's a big city; the walk/short taxi will be miniscule. Even getting from one terminus to another is public transport requirement.
From experience of travelling and working in London? For people coming from outside the City, they are likely to be there for work, eg a meeting or conference, or as a tourist. Either way "most stuff" is towards the middle of London, and certainly much closer to Euston than Old Oak, or any other "out of town" stop. The Elizabeth line is great, but it's still another change, it still probably doesn't take you to exactly where you want to be. It's simply inefficient and won't do much to encourage people to use HS2, if end to end it's still quicker to get one of the existing routes.

Silver3ides

1,504 posts

225 months

Tuesday 14th March 2023
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Drone footage ..HS2 Route Kenilworth to Burton Green - March 2023
https://youtu.be/OfHqKgewtYw