Suppose HS2 was cancelled

Author
Discussion

dukeboy749r

2,620 posts

210 months

Wednesday 2nd November 2022
quotequote all
NorthDave said:
I live in Manchester and work a lot in London - I wish they would scrap it.
The West coast main line isn't even run properly so what hope has this of making a difference?
In my view they should give tax breaks to spread companies round the country a bit more and push fast internet everywhere so people can work from home. I don't get the fascination with everyone being in the office and the commuting just creates pollution and clogs the country up.
Please stop with your extremely sensible posts.

Imagine allowing this sort of dangerous thinking into government. It would be carnage within hours. All of the useless MPs, ministers and large swathes of advisors, suddenly unemployed as someone had found a 'much simpler answer'.

Shocking that PH doesn't moderate such excellent posts.

lobster940

657 posts

155 months

Wednesday 2nd November 2022
quotequote all
I was dead set against HS2, shuddering when I thought about the money wasted on it, and how it would destroy the rural idyll of North Oxfordshire where I grew up.

I've now landed a job which requires me to commute between London and Birmingham at least twice a week (on expenses).

HS2 can't come soon enough.

Bonefish Blues

26,678 posts

223 months

Wednesday 2nd November 2022
quotequote all
lobster940 said:
I was dead set against HS2, shuddering when I thought about the money wasted on it, and how it would destroy the rural idyll of North Oxfordshire where I grew up.

I've now landed a job which requires me to commute between London and Birmingham at least twice a week (on expenses).

HS2 can't come soon enough.
We're pretty close to where HS2 and EWR cross in N Oxon, so the latter is c 1 mile and the former maybe 2 away smile

OutInTheShed

7,597 posts

26 months

Wednesday 2nd November 2022
quotequote all
Alias218 said:
IMO HS2 is a good thing. Once you move past the vanity project element of it and, yes, the eye watering cost, this rail link will be in use for decades. Goodness knows we need some more modern rail infrastructure in this country, and more capacity, not to mention enabling the freeing up of older lines for freight which in turn removes lorries from the roads releasing some capacity there too.

The net benefit of HS2 and subsequent spurs goes beyond just shaving 10 mins from your Manchester to London run. I'd like to see investment in older lines too, though.
So people who live in towns on the old line not served by Hi-Spend 2 are going to get a really crap passenger service in between the freight trains?
And presumably those freight trains will then continue across the rest of the network?

I think this 'it will free up the old line for freight' is a load of bollux invented when the 'high speed' value of the vanity project was debunked.

HS 2 was supposed to be part of a grand scheme linking euroland, which we've divorced, with jockland, which we're going to divorce.
It was a fine idea that needed either finishing by 1996 or putting in the 'Severn Barrage and Boris Island pile'

2xChevrons

3,188 posts

80 months

Wednesday 2nd November 2022
quotequote all
OutInTheShed said:
So people who live in towns on the old line not served by Hi-Spend 2 are going to get a really crap passenger service in between the freight trains?
And presumably those freight trains will then continue across the rest of the network?
No, they would be able to get an improved passenger service because it's much easier to find paths for slow passenger trains that stop at intermediate stations between 60mph freight trains because the average speeds are about the same. Mixing stopping passenger and 125mph express passenger trains requires huge (in terms of both time and physical distance) headways to allow the stopping train to slow, stop, drop off and pick up passengers and accelerate back up to its max speed without getting in the way of the fast express coming up behind it. So you can run much less of either type of service on the same line. Meanwhile, freight trains running at 60mph and local passenger trains running at 80mph between stops can mix much more densely since they don't get in each other's way. And equally, on HS2, solely the preserve of long-distance passenger trains running at the same (high) speeds, you could theoretically be able to run them at very short intervals - the signalling system would probably allow for headways of three or four minutes, so up to 20 trains per hour - because they are all on the same service pattern.


Evanivitch

20,072 posts

122 months

Wednesday 2nd November 2022
quotequote all
OutInTheShed said:
So people who live in towns on the old line not served by Hi-Spend 2 are going to get a really crap passenger service in between the freight trains?
And presumably those freight trains will then continue across the rest of the network?

I think this 'it will free up the old line for freight' is a load of bollux invented when the 'high speed' value of the vanity project was debunked.

HS 2 was supposed to be part of a grand scheme linking euroland, which we've divorced, with jockland, which we're going to divorce.
It was a fine idea that needed either finishing by 1996 or putting in the 'Severn Barrage and Boris Island pile'
This sort of ignorance is why the UK is always 20-50 years behind on major infrastructure projects. It's same nonsense arguments time and again.

aeropilot

34,574 posts

227 months

Wednesday 2nd November 2022
quotequote all
Evanivitch said:
OutInTheShed said:
So people who live in towns on the old line not served by Hi-Spend 2 are going to get a really crap passenger service in between the freight trains?
And presumably those freight trains will then continue across the rest of the network?

I think this 'it will free up the old line for freight' is a load of bollux invented when the 'high speed' value of the vanity project was debunked.

HS 2 was supposed to be part of a grand scheme linking euroland, which we've divorced, with jockland, which we're going to divorce.
It was a fine idea that needed either finishing by 1996 or putting in the 'Severn Barrage and Boris Island pile'
This sort of ignorance is why the UK is always 20-50 years behind on major infrastructure projects. It's same nonsense arguments time and again.
yes


OutInTheShed

7,597 posts

26 months

Wednesday 2nd November 2022
quotequote all
Evanivitch said:
OutInTheShed said:
So people who live in towns on the old line not served by Hi-Spend 2 are going to get a really crap passenger service in between the freight trains?
And presumably those freight trains will then continue across the rest of the network?

I think this 'it will free up the old line for freight' is a load of bollux invented when the 'high speed' value of the vanity project was debunked.

HS 2 was supposed to be part of a grand scheme linking euroland, which we've divorced, with jockland, which we're going to divorce.
It was a fine idea that needed either finishing by 1996 or putting in the 'Severn Barrage and Boris Island pile'
This sort of ignorance is why the UK is always 20-50 years behind on major infrastructure projects. It's same nonsense arguments time and again.
How is it nonsense?
Do you deny the alleged freight trains will slow passenger trains on the old main lines?
Do you deny that once upon a time, the europhiles dreamed of a joined up system where you could go from Manchester to Paris on a train?

HS2 is 2/3 Vanity project now and 1/4 Keynesian hole-digging.

P5BNij

15,875 posts

106 months

Wednesday 2nd November 2022
quotequote all
aeropilot said:
Evanivitch said:
OutInTheShed said:
So people who live in towns on the old line not served by Hi-Spend 2 are going to get a really crap passenger service in between the freight trains?
And presumably those freight trains will then continue across the rest of the network?

I think this 'it will free up the old line for freight' is a load of bollux invented when the 'high speed' value of the vanity project was debunked.

HS 2 was supposed to be part of a grand scheme linking euroland, which we've divorced, with jockland, which we're going to divorce.
It was a fine idea that needed either finishing by 1996 or putting in the 'Severn Barrage and Boris Island pile'
This sort of ignorance is why the UK is always 20-50 years behind on major infrastructure projects. It's same nonsense arguments time and again.
yes
I drive 'alleged' freights on the WCML (amongst several other routes) and this is exactly why HS2 needs to be built, I see the capacity issue day in, day out. I can assure OutInTheShed that it's not bollux at all. Once it is up and running, the pathing issues elsewhere will be much easier to sort out, the benefits going way beyond HS2 itself in the long run.

From 60mph it takes a 2,500 ton freight train over a mile to stop (depending on the gradients amongst other things), pathing these trains between higher speed traffic affects the existing capacity greatly, with HS2 done and dusted the problem is greatly reduced. Our 75mph container trains will be able to share the fast lines more often with the faster stopping services, leaving the slow lines free for a more consistent flow of slower traffic.





OutInTheShed

7,597 posts

26 months

Wednesday 2nd November 2022
quotequote all
P5BNij said:
I drive 'alleged' freights on the WCML (amongst several other routes) and this is exactly why HS2 needs to be built, I see the capacity issue day in, day out. I can assure OutInTheShed that it's not bollux at all. Once it is up and running, the pathing issues elsewhere will be much easier to sort out, the benefits going way beyond HS2 itself in the long run.

From 60mph it takes a 2,500 ton freight train over a mile to stop (depending on the gradients amongst other things), pathing these trains between higher speed traffic affects the existing capacity greatly, with HS2 done and dusted the problem is greatly reduced. Our 75mph container trains will be able to share the fast lines more often with the faster stopping services, leaving the slow lines free for a more consistent flow of slower traffic.
So the freight being on the WCML will enable HS2 to run without freight conflicts.
Will the alleged extra freight that's going to come off the roads create more conflcit on the old line?
Or will there be less passenger services on the old line to reduce conflict with freight so intermediate stations not served by HS2 get less service?

This alleged extra freight that's coming off the roads, does it source and sink at HS2 termini or does it spread out into the wider network conflicting with passenger services?

I'm not saying the benefit is zero, but in proportion to the massive cost, it all made a lot more sense as an element of an EU-wide rail network.
Now it's more elephant of the white variety.

I'm not against cracking on and finishing it now.
It's a decision that was made when conditions were different..

Evanivitch

20,072 posts

122 months

Wednesday 2nd November 2022
quotequote all
OutInTheShed said:
Do you deny the alleged freight trains will slow passenger trains on the old main lines?
No. Because the passenger lines on the old line already mix with freight and stop frequently. Removing confliction with high speed InterCity travel allows better flow and frequency.of services.

OutInTheShed said:
Do you deny that once upon a time, the europhiles dreamed of a joined up system where you could go from Manchester to Paris on a train?
It wasn't a europhile dream, it was the simple logical progression of high speed rail to permeate from a single point of entry that was also located next to the largest population mass, whilst also trying to generate the greatest benefit to society by improving the frequency and decreasing the impact of domestic travel from North to South (and East to West).

Connectivity with Europe hasn't been an issue since the first scheduled passenger flights commenced.

OutInTheShed said:
HS2 is 2/3 Vanity project now and 1/4 Keynesian hole-digging.
So the alternative to UK travel is increasing amounts of domestic air travel and road traffic?

P5BNij

15,875 posts

106 months

Wednesday 2nd November 2022
quotequote all
OutInTheShed said:
P5BNij said:
I drive 'alleged' freights on the WCML (amongst several other routes) and this is exactly why HS2 needs to be built, I see the capacity issue day in, day out. I can assure OutInTheShed that it's not bollux at all. Once it is up and running, the pathing issues elsewhere will be much easier to sort out, the benefits going way beyond HS2 itself in the long run.

From 60mph it takes a 2,500 ton freight train over a mile to stop (depending on the gradients amongst other things), pathing these trains between higher speed traffic affects the existing capacity greatly, with HS2 done and dusted the problem is greatly reduced. Our 75mph container trains will be able to share the fast lines more often with the faster stopping services, leaving the slow lines free for a more consistent flow of slower traffic.
So the freight being on the WCML will enable HS2 to run without freight conflicts.
Will the alleged extra freight that's going to come off the roads create more conflcit on the old line?
Or will there be less passenger services on the old line to reduce conflict with freight so intermediate stations not served by HS2 get less service?

This alleged extra freight that's coming off the roads, does it source and sink at HS2 termini or does it spread out into the wider network conflicting with passenger services?

I'm not saying the benefit is zero, but in proportion to the massive cost, it all made a lot more sense as an element of an EU-wide rail network.
Now it's more elephant of the white variety.

I'm not against cracking on and finishing it now.
It's a decision that was made when conditions were different..
It's not a white elephant at all.

Any extra freight will be absorbed into the extra capacity freed up by building HS2 (some of it already is, with new terminals opening up, including a new one currently being built near the M1, on the WCML just south of Northampton). None of it will go anywhere near HS2 traffic.



aeropilot

34,574 posts

227 months

Wednesday 2nd November 2022
quotequote all
OutInTheShed said:
Do you deny that once upon a time, the europhiles dreamed of a joined up system where you could go from Manchester to Paris on a train?
While that was an initial plan as part of the scheme, the short link line upgrade to be able to run a HS2 train from the line into Euston through Camden and onto the HS1 line and hence through to the tunnel, was fraught with resident objections from those living in Camden plus local business as a result of the swathe of demo needed along that short link through centre of London. The cost of that would have likely made that short link one of the most expensive per mile bits of rail network ever......so the Govt canned it, in favour of improving the walking and tube connections routes between Euston and St.p instead. Not ideal of course, but there wasn't much other option really......unless you know something that no one on the project does of course?

OutInTheShed

7,597 posts

26 months

Wednesday 2nd November 2022
quotequote all
aeropilot said:
While that was an initial plan as part of the scheme, the short link line upgrade to be able to run a HS2 train from the line into Euston through Camden and onto the HS1 line and hence through to the tunnel, was fraught with resident objections from those living in Camden plus local business as a result of the swathe of demo needed along that short link through centre of London. The cost of that would have likely made that short link one of the most expensive per mile bits of rail network ever......so the Govt canned it, in favour of improving the walking and tube connections routes between Euston and St.p instead. Not ideal of course, but there wasn't much other option really......unless you know something that no one on the project does of course?
ISTR at least one of the early plans had a bypass to avoid 'that London'
Lots of different stuff was talked about going back to the days of wittering about whether to dig the channel tunnel.

OutInTheShed

7,597 posts

26 months

Wednesday 2nd November 2022
quotequote all
P5BNij said:
It's not a white elephant at all.

Any extra freight will be absorbed into the extra capacity freed up by building HS2 (some of it already is, with new terminals opening up, including a new one currently being built near the M1, on the WCML just south of Northampton). None of it will go anywhere near HS2 traffic.
HS2 will only provide extra freight capacity over the stretch it parallels.
Any extra freight beyond this segment clearly means extra conflict elsewhere on the network.

OutInTheShed

7,597 posts

26 months

Wednesday 2nd November 2022
quotequote all
Evanivitch said:
...

..

Connectivity with Europe hasn't been an issue since the first scheduled passenger flights commenced.

OutInTheShed said:
HS2 is 2/3 Vanity project now and 1/4 Keynesian hole-digging.
So the alternative to UK travel is increasing amounts of domestic air travel and road traffic?
So aviation is good if you're going to Paris but bad if you're going to Manchester which is further away?

When are these carbon neutral flights to 'the continent' due to start?

What we have is a lack of joined-up thinking.
People dreamed up a network and UK Guvmint eventually decided to build a little bit of it.

Then they worked on the justifications.

If we were serious about rail, we would be putting back all the passing loops which used to allow fast trains to leapfrog slow trains, but were got rid of in previous 'modernisations'.

aeropilot

34,574 posts

227 months

Wednesday 2nd November 2022
quotequote all
OutInTheShed said:
If we were serious about rail, we would be putting back all the passing loops which used to allow fast trains to leapfrog slow trains, but were got rid of in previous 'modernisations'.
If we were serious about rail, we'd be putting back a lot of the stuff that was axed under Beeching because 'roads were the future'.......

That's not going to happen either, despite the couple of very small reinstatements that have happened.


Evanivitch

20,072 posts

122 months

Wednesday 2nd November 2022
quotequote all
OutInTheShed said:
So aviation is good if you're going to Paris but bad if you're going to Manchester which is further away?
Not what I've said in the slightest. You've stated it's a "europhiles" dream to travel from Paris to Manchester. Well that's been possible for decades by plane, High Speed rail doesn't change that.

OutInTheShed said:
What we have is a lack of joined-up thinking.
People dreamed up a network and UK Guvmint eventually decided to build a little bit of it.
The intercity rail network already exists, it's real. You've probably already used it. HS2 is an enhancement of that existing network.

The government should enhance all of it, as I've already stated HS1 was a false dawn, HS2 without succession planning will see all the skills and continuity gains lost should we quit HS rail building for 10 years before HS3. Workforce will disperse, key equipment and capital investment liquidated.

OutInTheShed said:
If we were serious about rail, we would be putting back all the passing loops which used to allow fast trains to leapfrog slow trains, but were got rid of in previous 'modernisations'.
Probably best stick to the Brio set then.

Evanivitch

20,072 posts

122 months

Wednesday 2nd November 2022
quotequote all
aeropilot said:
If we were serious about rail, we'd be putting back a lot of the stuff that was axed under Beeching because 'roads were the future'.......

That's not going to happen either, despite the couple of very small reinstatements that have happened.
Just look at the cluster-f*** that is the South Wales Metro as they try to reintroduce rail and tram services on the south wales valley lines. In several of those valleys they are now cycle paths, and reinstating the rail line is incredibly expensive.

P5BNij

15,875 posts

106 months

Wednesday 2nd November 2022
quotequote all
OutInTheShed said:
P5BNij said:
It's not a white elephant at all.

Any extra freight will be absorbed into the extra capacity freed up by building HS2 (some of it already is, with new terminals opening up, including a new one currently being built near the M1, on the WCML just south of Northampton). None of it will go anywhere near HS2 traffic.
HS2 will only provide extra freight capacity over the stretch it parallels.
Any extra freight beyond this segment clearly means extra conflict elsewhere on the network.
When HS2 is finished, train planning of the entire network is to be revamped to allow better pathing overall, my ex-boss is part of the team which will be doing this.