Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 2]
Discussion
DJRC said:
Crusoe said:
DJRC said:
Why a larger mandate from the left? Pasok are centre left and got the largest kicking in the last election! The Pasok vote got eaten up by the Demo Democrats the left coalition. The other major gainers were the New Dawn mob and the anti-bailout/Euro party who went to 10%. If anything, a snap election will see that 10% double to 20% because they will now campaign with free reign!
Of the main leaders it was only Alexis Tsipras of the Left SYRIZA party that came out clearly for ripping up the previous deal, would expect him to get more backing because of that?Financial Times said:
Syriza, the hard-left anti-austerity party, heads the latest opinion polls (13thMay). If this result were replicated at a future election, it would also obtain the coveted prize of 50 additional parliamentary seats, a sixth of the size of the entire parliament. So this would end up with the triumph of extremist parties.
Election runs again and the rip up the euro deal party winsWord of the day: "Ordoliberalism"
German economics is far more than fear of inflation
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2012/0...
...references this publication from February...
The Long Shadow of Ordoliberalism: Germany’s Approach to the Eurocrisis
http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR49_GERMANY_BRIEF_AW.... (PDF)
German economics is far more than fear of inflation
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2012/0...
...references this publication from February...
The Long Shadow of Ordoliberalism: Germany’s Approach to the Eurocrisis
http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR49_GERMANY_BRIEF_AW.... (PDF)
If enough people say it then it's more likely to happen http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/may/14/eur...
Crusoe said:
DJRC said:
Crusoe said:
DJRC said:
Why a larger mandate from the left? Pasok are centre left and got the largest kicking in the last election! The Pasok vote got eaten up by the Demo Democrats the left coalition. The other major gainers were the New Dawn mob and the anti-bailout/Euro party who went to 10%. If anything, a snap election will see that 10% double to 20% because they will now campaign with free reign!
Of the main leaders it was only Alexis Tsipras of the Left SYRIZA party that came out clearly for ripping up the previous deal, would expect him to get more backing because of that?Financial Times said:
Syriza, the hard-left anti-austerity party, heads the latest opinion polls (13thMay). If this result were replicated at a future election, it would also obtain the coveted prize of 50 additional parliamentary seats, a sixth of the size of the entire parliament. So this would end up with the triumph of extremist parties.
Election runs again and the rip up the euro deal party winsSyriza, even winning the election and gaining 50 seats will be very unlikely to gain a massive majority. They will have to go through the same coalition process as they all just tried. Now *if* Syriza and the Indies both gain sufficient and the Democratic Left/right coalition govt. What Syriza have said they will not do is a deal with either PASOK or New Democracy as both are tainted by the bailout deal.
DJRC said:
They will take more of the PASOK vote. The Independant Greeks will take more of New Democracy vote, the Indies are the staunch rip up the euro party on the right. They will double their vote in a new election. A more intriguing question is how will New Dawn do.
Syriza, even winning the election and gaining 50 seats will be very unlikely to gain a massive majority. They will have to go through the same coalition process as they all just tried. Now *if* Syriza and the Indies both gain sufficient and the Democratic Left/right coalition govt. What Syriza have said they will not do is a deal with either PASOK or New Democracy as both are tainted by the bailout deal.
It's like a political groundhog day, going nowhere fast. That big-bellied Mr Venison is sat there gurning in all the photos you see of the various politicos gathered round the President's dining room table. I bet he's fuming at the humiliation heaped on him by his countrymen, he's clearly baffled as why nobody thinks his bailout solutions are working. Perhaps they've seen the latest figures and he hasn't. There's a year-on-year increase in net interest payments of Eu3.6BN as part of the implementation of the PSI debt exchange. So perhaps Greek folks have twigged it is very difficult to solve a debt problem by creating more debt but he hasn't. The so-called bailout of Greece has piled so much extra debt on her that even the supposed haircut has made things worse. This has been exacerbated by the foolish accounting tricks of the ECB I've mentioned many times whereby the losses are ignored and the coupons received are booked as profits! Syriza, even winning the election and gaining 50 seats will be very unlikely to gain a massive majority. They will have to go through the same coalition process as they all just tried. Now *if* Syriza and the Indies both gain sufficient and the Democratic Left/right coalition govt. What Syriza have said they will not do is a deal with either PASOK or New Democracy as both are tainted by the bailout deal.
The next logical step is that Greeks need to recognise the Euro is not just a currency or a bit of paper with some rather natty architecture drawn on the back. It is a whole monetary system with a very heavy price to pay. My view is that they're rapidly coming to this conclusion.
Apart from this, there are other pressing problems to consider in the Eurozone; March industrial production announced by Eurostat is down 2.2% on the year and there were some nasty surprises in the figures:
The largest decreases were in Luxembourg (-11.3%), Greece (-8.5%), Spain (-7.5%), Estonia and Finland ( -6.1%) and Italy (-5.8%).
Obviously this doesn't include Switzerland. DJRC, do you know how her manufacturers are managing with the Swissy being so strong?
Dicey. Exporters and the tourism industry have been hammered.
My last lot started last year budgetting an average rate of 1.3 against the Euro, which was a pretty average position in Switzerland. So if you take into account a whole country was planning their financial year on 1.3 and by August it was 1 - 1 then you can see the reasons for the massive panic last year.
Switzerland has other problems though. There are massive structural imbalances in the money flows. At either end of the country you have 2 booms with their own microcosm of inflationary economics in Zurich and Geneva with a more stagnant middle. And there is a growing social imbalance problem.
My last lot started last year budgetting an average rate of 1.3 against the Euro, which was a pretty average position in Switzerland. So if you take into account a whole country was planning their financial year on 1.3 and by August it was 1 - 1 then you can see the reasons for the massive panic last year.
Switzerland has other problems though. There are massive structural imbalances in the money flows. At either end of the country you have 2 booms with their own microcosm of inflationary economics in Zurich and Geneva with a more stagnant middle. And there is a growing social imbalance problem.
Anti Austerity partys across Europe,OK so what happens now? THEY STILL CANT PAY,BORROW,OR TURN A PROFIT! Oh hold on perhaps there is an Anti Anti Austerity bite the bullet party forming as we speak,the Greeks WILL stamp their feet and not pay job done ,its small fry compared to what is coming with Spain,Portugal and Italy.
DJRC said:
Dicey. Exporters and the tourism industry have been hammered.
My last lot started last year budgetting an average rate of 1.3 against the Euro, which was a pretty average position in Switzerland. So if you take into account a whole country was planning their financial year on 1.3 and by August it was 1 - 1 then you can see the reasons for the massive panic last year.
Switzerland has other problems though. There are massive structural imbalances in the money flows. At either end of the country you have 2 booms with their own microcosm of inflationary economics in Zurich and Geneva with a more stagnant middle. And there is a growing social imbalance problem.
The very reason this Euro zone was formed was a stable currency across the Eurozone thats out the window then!My last lot started last year budgetting an average rate of 1.3 against the Euro, which was a pretty average position in Switzerland. So if you take into account a whole country was planning their financial year on 1.3 and by August it was 1 - 1 then you can see the reasons for the massive panic last year.
Switzerland has other problems though. There are massive structural imbalances in the money flows. At either end of the country you have 2 booms with their own microcosm of inflationary economics in Zurich and Geneva with a more stagnant middle. And there is a growing social imbalance problem.
Andy Zarse said:
DJRC said:
They will take more of the PASOK vote. The Independant Greeks will take more of New Democracy vote, the Indies are the staunch rip up the euro party on the right. They will double their vote in a new election. A more intriguing question is how will New Dawn do.
Syriza, even winning the election and gaining 50 seats will be very unlikely to gain a massive majority. They will have to go through the same coalition process as they all just tried. Now *if* Syriza and the Indies both gain sufficient and the Democratic Left/right coalition govt. What Syriza have said they will not do is a deal with either PASOK or New Democracy as both are tainted by the bailout deal.
It's like a political groundhog day, going nowhere fast. That big-bellied Mr Venison is sat there gurning in all the photos you see of the various politicos gathered round the President's dining room table. I bet he's fuming at the humiliation heaped on him by his countrymen, he's clearly baffled as why nobody thinks his bailout solutions are working. Perhaps they've seen the latest figures and he hasn't. There's a year-on-year increase in net interest payments of Eu3.6BN as part of the implementation of the PSI debt exchange. So perhaps Greek folks have twigged it is very difficult to solve a debt problem by creating more debt but he hasn't. The so-called bailout of Greece has piled so much extra debt on her that even the supposed haircut has made things worse. This has been exacerbated by the foolish accounting tricks of the ECB I've mentioned many times whereby the losses are ignored and the coupons received are booked as profits! Syriza, even winning the election and gaining 50 seats will be very unlikely to gain a massive majority. They will have to go through the same coalition process as they all just tried. Now *if* Syriza and the Indies both gain sufficient and the Democratic Left/right coalition govt. What Syriza have said they will not do is a deal with either PASOK or New Democracy as both are tainted by the bailout deal.
The next logical step is that Greeks need to recognise the Euro is not just a currency or a bit of paper with some rather natty architecture drawn on the back. It is a whole monetary system with a very heavy price to pay. My view is that they're rapidly coming to this conclusion.
Apart from this, there are other pressing problems to consider in the Eurozone; March industrial production announced by Eurostat is down 2.2% on the year and there were some nasty surprises in the figures:
The largest decreases were in Luxembourg (-11.3%), Greece (-8.5%), Spain (-7.5%), Estonia and Finland ( -6.1%) and Italy (-5.8%).
Obviously this doesn't include Switzerland. DJRC, do you know how her manufacturers are managing with the Swissy being so strong?
The figures on the economic performance of other countries within the Eurozone, make deeply serious economic recession, across the EU, very apparent.
The clear signs of the economic recession, rapidly developing across Europe were my primary reason for realising, that none of the HBAT's could recover from their default positions, no matter how much austerity they agreed.
Recovering from insolvency in a growth period might, just have been possible, with a huge push towards growth, combined with severe government expenditure cuts. Recovering from insolvency in a serious recession, through any amount of attempted growth and government expenditure cuts, is simply impossible.
For those reasons, I realised that the HBAT's were dead in the water unless the EU (Germany) were prepared to permanently subsidise their membership. Once that idea was thrown out by the EU the HBAT's could not remain within the Euro.
There are a number of other questions arising from the general growing acceptance, that is coming steadily, that the EU is changing for ever. These will undoubtedly arise as the default process proceeds. Are we looking at days? Weeks? Months? I wonder?
Blib said:
Well, Greece has lost my financial support. We've just switched our August holiday from there to Turkey.
This devastating blow to the Grecian economy could be the straw that breaks the camel's back.
I hope it does!! they are acting like a load of spoilt brats and the muppets incharge of the Eu who are doing anything but what's right for the population at large in greece and the rest of the EU .....This devastating blow to the Grecian economy could be the straw that breaks the camel's back.
Blib said:
Well, Greece has lost my financial support. We've just switched our August holiday from there to Turkey.
This devastating blow to the Grecian economy could be the straw that breaks the camel's back.
Could be round about August when the Turks decide to settle the Aegian Dispute once and for all. Pack sun-block, flak-jacket and combat flip-flops.This devastating blow to the Grecian economy could be the straw that breaks the camel's back.
Blib said:
Well, Greece has lost my financial support. We've just switched our August holiday from there to Turkey.
This devastating blow to the Grecian economy could be the straw that breaks the camel's back.
Being serious for a momentThis devastating blow to the Grecian economy could be the straw that breaks the camel's back.
Should I be panicking about my holiday to Rhodes in June? What are worst case scenarios>
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