How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[TheLordJohn]

I didn't put any thought into whether my house would appreciate (or otherwise!) before buying it.
I just wanted to buy one. So found one suitable, well within budget, scraped a deposit together and bought it.
It was bought 3 years ago and will be paid off in 14 years. Then I have a shelter to live in for the rest of my life.

I can't believe people are so petty/OCD about the market etc. Just buy a bloody house.

[WCZ]

Shnozz said:

There are only two apartments on rightmove in excess of £1m in Manchester. Hardly brimming with them.

I said 'several' not brimming, most of the big penthouses here are owner occupied and don't come on sale often, there will be some high end new builds n the market soon though but I'm not sure what your point is anyway.

Edited by WCZ on Friday 22 September 11:30

[V6Alfisti]

TheLordJohn said:

I didn't put any thought into whether my house would appreciate (or otherwise!) before buying it.
I just wanted to buy one. So found one suitable, well within budget, scraped a deposit together and bought it.
It was bought 3 years ago and will be paid off in 14 years. Then I have a shelter to live in for the rest of my life.

I can't believe people are so petty/OCD about the market etc. Just buy a bloody house.

Say that to people that have lost their homes in a market crash - sorry but short sighted/naive but not entirely surprised, there is a reason it has taken so long for people to cotton on.

Also where did you buy (as local conditions vary), and less of a concern in the sub £400k market as exposure is less (although of course depending on salary multiples - sorry I am very 'conditioned' to the London market). Also you say well within budget, alot of the people here are talking about London which typically means flats in the range of £400-900k and houses ranging from £800k-£1.5m, even outside of London multiples are typically a big stretch/impossible for people. So whilst you may have had a massive buffer, the majority are not in that position.

One of my colleagues had the same stand point as you when he bought a house last year (although he was absolutely certain that prices would keep rise, so stopped thinking), now they are expecting a baby and want somewhere larger. However they are stuck, as the house prices have fallen (albiet modestly - about £20k) and they had to drop about £20k on stamp duty, and guess what...they would need another £25k (stamp duty) for the house they were looking at (it is a different areas, but presumably that would have dropped a little as well given it is not a million miles away). Add that little lot up and thats £65k (or arguably £40k given you will always need to pay stamp duty) down in one year (without legals/arrangement fees) and they are now stuck as a result.

[V6Alfisti]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Bristol has shot up, my sister lives in Cotham. I am guessing the 'trendy' bit refers to montpelier world, or southville. As I recall lots of folks moving to southville.

I think the Bristol market is still hot, but haven't really looked at any figures there, would be interested to know how that goes!

[Pork]

matrignano said:

Unfortunately that's the going price (currently) for decent 2 beds in the area I want to live in.
Nothing particularly fancy at all.
I just don't won't to compromise, I'm 34 and been renting all my life, I don't care about getting a "better deal" by buying in an up and coming area (read: st area with potential to become super expensive), I just want somewhere where I know I'll be happy for a few years. And get on the ladder and stop paying somebody else's mortgage.

I can wait no probs, I just fear that I might lose potentially the only viable buying window I have given my budget. If prices go up by even just 10% I'll be priced out and who knows when I'll ever be able to afford to buy in south ken again.

Re: London salaries - plenty of people include myself who make a good wage.
What I really struggled with was putting together 100k+ in savings to put a deposit down. Even with high London salaries it's not that easy to save that kind of cash in a reasonable time frame.

the budget you have at your age as a FTB must put you in the top 0.1% of FTBs, that's an astonishing budget (or maybe I'm out of touch?). It's shocking to think you're struggling to find your first home with that to spend.

South Ken has been pricey forever. You pays your money and takes your choice. Few will understand the need to be in south ken at that price, but it's not their money.

[drainbrain]

I bought this last Friday:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

Didn't seem any 1st time buyers were interested, tho it was hardly unaffordable.

Was a bit miffed at not getting it for £18k.

20 years ago it would have cost £15k and in the last 3 months (since the picture) the exterior's had a major renovation plus posh new entrance door and door entry system installed.

[okgo]

drainbrain said:

I bought this last Friday:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

Didn't seem any 1st time buyers were interested, tho it was hardly unaffordable.

Was a bit miffed at not getting it for £18k.

20 years ago it would have cost £15k and in the last 3 months (since the picture) the exterior's had a major renovation plus posh new entrance door and door entry system installed.

Grim.

What will that rent for?

[drainbrain]

okgo said:

Grim.

What will that rent for?

I really don't know why you think it's 'grim'. It's not grim at all. With the external refurb it's actually quite nice. If my circumstances were (or become) different I'd be happy to live in it myself.

Currently occupied at £350pcm but with luck the next tenant'll be DSS which'll bring £400pcm.

[ElectricSoup]

drainbrain said:

okgo said:

Grim.

What will that rent for?

I really don't know why you think it's 'grim'. It's not grim at all. With the external refurb it's actually quite nice. If my circumstances were (or become) different I'd be happy to live in it myself.

Currently occupied at £350pcm but with luck the next tenant'll be DSS which'll bring £400pcm.

That is amazing investment value, I have a mate who own a similar place in Glasgow and has let it out to the same bloke for about 20 years. Good as gold. Are there any areas of Glasgow you simply wouldn't buy a place in, even for rental purposes? I'm thinking about getting a couple myself in the fullness of time.

[drainbrain]

ElectricSoup said:

That is amazing investment value, I have a mate who owns a similar place in Glasgow and has let it out to the same bloke for about 20 years. Good as gold. Are there any areas of Glasgow you simply wouldn't buy a place in, even for rental purposes? I'm thinking about getting a couple myself in the fullness of time.

Well, if you're talking residentials there are some areas where you'd need a bit of specialised local knowledge to make a success of it, but areas to avoid tend to change over time.

It's mostly lower end commercials I'm into nowadays, but my role's confined to buying them and handing them over to the agency I sold when I retired.

Letting's changed massively over the last few years and is continuing to change. I'd say currently the main 'skill' the landlord needs is finding a 'real' 'proper' 'effective' management agent.

[mjb1]

drainbrain said:

I bought this last Friday:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

Didn't seem any 1st time buyers were interested, tho it was hardly unaffordable.

Was a bit miffed at not getting it for £18k.

20 years ago it would have cost £15k and in the last 3 months (since the picture) the exterior's had a major renovation plus posh new entrance door and door entry system installed.

Says it's tenanted? How is that suitable for a FTBer?

[scenario8]

What happened to the dude who posted here a few years ago primarily about his japes as a Scottish landlord? He was fun. Anyone else recall him. Forget his name now...

[drainbrain]

scenario8 said:

What happened to the dude who posted here a few years ago primarily about his japes as a Scottish landlord? He was fun. Anyone else recall him. Forget his name now...

The Very Reverend Ebeneezer Groak.

(it's a bit like The Doctor in Dr Who)

[scenario8]

Many thanks.

Someone fetch him back. He was ace. Reading his stories was a lovely rest from the endless Churchods mocking.

[Rovinghawk]

okgo said:

Grim.

You mean "not in London"?

[hyphen]

drainbrain said:

okgo said:

Grim.

What will that rent for?

I really don't know why you think it's 'grim'. It's not grim at all. With the external refurb it's actually quite nice. If my circumstances were (or become) different I'd be happy to live in it myself.

Currently occupied at £350pcm but with luck the next tenant'll be DSS which'll bring £400pcm.

I think he meant the area too. It's £20k for a reason.

[ElectricSoup]

hyphen said:

drainbrain said:

okgo said:

Grim.

What will that rent for?

I really don't know why you think it's 'grim'. It's not grim at all. With the external refurb it's actually quite nice. If my circumstances were (or become) different I'd be happy to live in it myself.

Currently occupied at £350pcm but with luck the next tenant'll be DSS which'll bring £400pcm.

I think he meant the area too. It's £20k for a reason.

Well if there's demand to rent these places, who cares? If I've got £160k to invest in property, I can get one property in Reading which will earn £800 a month rent, or 8 of these in Glasgow earning £400 a month each.

I think I know where my £160k goes.

Edited by ElectricSoup on Friday 22 September 14:12

[The jiffle king]

hyphen said:

I think he meant the area too. It's £20k for a reason.

20% ish return....before repairs

[drainbrain]

hyphen said:

drainbrain said:

okgo said:

Grim.

What will that rent for?

I really don't know why you think it's 'grim'. It's not grim at all. With the external refurb it's actually quite nice. If my circumstances were (or become) different I'd be happy to live in it myself.

Currently occupied at £350pcm but with luck the next tenant'll be DSS which'll bring £400pcm.

I think he meant the area too. It's £20k for a reason.

What's especially grim about Priesthill? No grimmer than a thousand other areas of working class housing and a lot less grim than many.

The reason it's £20k is probably because the seller recently bought it for £18k or £19k. BMV property is highly liquid. You buy it cheap and to sell it quick you sell it cheap.

[scenario8]

What would typical transaction costs be? I'm not suggesting your explanation is untrue or unlikely as I can understand someone in that sort of trade may have need to offload such a property at quick notice but just wonder how costly such a decision might be.

What would a more typical owner occupier sale achieve? Or is that not the sort of place commonly owner occupied.

You must admit £20k or even £30k is cheap. That can't be much more than 1, 1.5, 2 X local salary. Compared to estates in say Redhill (not London, guys) where a similar flat would be in the order of £150,000 - or 5+ local earnings.

I'm sure other less affluent British regions might show similar affordability but £20ish thousands is startling.