How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
DurianIceCream said:
Also, I own a BTL but the above would be the primary home. If I own a BTL and sell my primary home to buy another primary home, do I have to pay the stamp duty surcharge?
Good to see yet another highly competent and well informed LL who is fully conversant with their legal and financial obligations and doesn't have to rely on asking strangers on the internet even the most basic of queries.DurianIceCream said:
Great read of the Kingston/Surbiton advice; I'm thinking of a move in that area.
Can anybody come up with other areas I should be looking at? Requirements are:
- In the south-west of London, but could also be outside M25 if there is a reasonable train into London
- About £800,000
- 130sq or more metres internal
- Parking; would prefer off street parking but street ok as long as it easy street parking
- back garden; terraced is ok
A lot depends on your other priorities. As I mentioned above, you’ll only get that in the less desirable areas of Kingston or Surbiton at the moment.Can anybody come up with other areas I should be looking at? Requirements are:
- In the south-west of London, but could also be outside M25 if there is a reasonable train into London
- About £800,000
- 130sq or more metres internal
- Parking; would prefer off street parking but street ok as long as it easy street parking
- back garden; terraced is ok
If the commute is the main priority, you’d get something much better around Woking for that type of money. It’s less than 10 minutes slower into Waterloo from there than it is from Surbiton and actually faster than from Kingston. You’ll pay a lot more for the season ticket though.
I don’t know the area that well, and I would have thought there are parts of it to avoid, but your budget should start getting you into the better parts anyway.
If you are prepared to look outside of the SW corridor, then Sevenoaks has the best commute as it is 25 mins into London Bridge, but also with direct links to a lot of the other London terminals.
It is a much nicer town as well, the Surrey equivalent would probably be Weybridge rather than Woking, but at lower prices. Nicer countryside in opinion as well.
SomethIng like this:
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...
Edited by kingston12 on Tuesday 19th June 09:17
kingston12 said:
DurianIceCream said:
Great read of the Kingston/Surbiton advice; I'm thinking of a move in that area.
Can anybody come up with other areas I should be looking at? Requirements are:
- In the south-west of London, but could also be outside M25 if there is a reasonable train into London
- About £800,000
- 130sq or more metres internal
- Parking; would prefer off street parking but street ok as long as it easy street parking
- back garden; terraced is ok
A lot depends on your other priorities. As I mentioned above, you’ll only get that in the less desirable areas of Kingston or Surbiton at the moment.Can anybody come up with other areas I should be looking at? Requirements are:
- In the south-west of London, but could also be outside M25 if there is a reasonable train into London
- About £800,000
- 130sq or more metres internal
- Parking; would prefer off street parking but street ok as long as it easy street parking
- back garden; terraced is ok
If the commute is the main priority, you’d get something much better around Woking for that type of money. It’s less than 10 minutes slower into Waterloo from there than it is from Surbiton and actually faster than from Kingston. You’ll pay a lot more for the season ticket though.
I don’t know the area that we’ll, and I would have thought there are parts of it to avoid, but your budget should start getting you into the better parts anyway.
If you are prepared to look outside of the SW corridor, then Sevenoaks has the best commute as it is 25 mins into London Brodge, but also with direct links to a lot of the other London terminals.
It is a much nicer town as well, the Surrey equivalent would probably be Weybridge rather than Woking, but at lower prices. Nicer countryside in opinion as well.
SomethIng like this:
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...
Train from Redhill to London Bridge or Victoria is 29 mins. Train every 15 mins or so.
Edit - I normally get a pre-6am train so dont experience the busy periods and I only do it occasionally.
Edited by p1stonhead on Tuesday 19th June 09:40
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Definitely, the rest of Kent is completely different from Sevenoaks. Not to say there aren't other nice towns like Tunbridge Wells or Canterbury, but I wouldn't fancy commuting from either of those.I think it is very popular with the out of London brigade, but as you say, the fact it stands on it's own in that regard means you are going to stay in close proximity to less of your original London friends if you move there. I guess most people just build social circles around schools etc.
That said, I have friends there and it usually takes no more than 40 minutes to drive there (from Surbiton), and it can sometimes take me that to drive down and see other friends in Guildford! Train is a complete faff, but then it always is unless you are on the same line. If I want to go anywhere that is off of the SW mainline, then it is into London (or at least Clapham Junction) and back out again. The system is built of commuting and not much else.
From what I can see the appeal of Sevenoaks is slightly different - better state schools in general, cheaper house prices, slightly less suburban feel, but you do lose some of the social side and the other accoutrements of living in the equivalent part of Surrey. A good fit for some I'd imagine, though.
Edited by kingston12 on Tuesday 19th June 10:11
The latest Acadata report is out..
London down 0.3% on average, boosted greatly by new builds "where new build flats sold at an average premium of almost
a third (32.3%). They also made up a substantial proportion of sales of all flats, accounting for more than a quarter (26.4%)"
Yikes that is an interesting stat.
Latest heat map for London
London down 0.3% on average, boosted greatly by new builds "where new build flats sold at an average premium of almost
a third (32.3%). They also made up a substantial proportion of sales of all flats, accounting for more than a quarter (26.4%)"
Yikes that is an interesting stat.
Latest heat map for London
V6Alfisti said:
The latest Acadata report is out..
London down 0.3% on average, boosted greatly by new builds "where new build flats sold at an average premium of almost
a third (32.3%). They also made up a substantial proportion of sales of all flats, accounting for more than a quarter (26.4%)"
Yikes that is an interesting stat.
Latest heat map for London
Surprisingly lots of areas with fairly large increases there. London down 0.3% on average, boosted greatly by new builds "where new build flats sold at an average premium of almost
a third (32.3%). They also made up a substantial proportion of sales of all flats, accounting for more than a quarter (26.4%)"
Yikes that is an interesting stat.
Latest heat map for London
Otispunkmeyer said:
House prices are going up here.
I don't really know why, but our neighbor passed away a few months back and they've just sold his house. Bit of a special house, built in the 60's by builders of the name Jonmill, its a little bit mid-century modern with its asymmetrical roof and large glass ware. There are 3 such houses and we live in one on the end, his was in the middle. They're very different to the usual 2 up 2 down boxes that inhabit the rest of the estate.
It was sold, in less than 1 day and for 5 k over asking.
Old couple who live over the road in aforementioned 2 up 2 down box, are moving to be nearer grand kids. House sold the same day it went up for £10k over. A friend of my other half, have a nice big 5 bedroom house in a newer estate. They're off back to London, house sold in a week for asking price.
The thing about the first house is, the buyers were happy to pay the original asking price. Then the price was shifted up by 5k as the daughter of our neighbor panicked about selling too cheaply. Buyers happily paid it. The old couple across the street, I think someone just straight offered 10k over. Presumably in the hope they'd accept right away to avoid a bidding war.
They've built 4 new estates in the 4 years we've been in this village. Its now getting on for a town really. Currently building a 5th with some 400 homes. So far all houses built have simply "flown of the shelves". And that is from the upmarket builds (think they were £400k starting) to the cheaper end (high 100's).
Don't know who is buying them all. But they're buying them.
My OH gets excited because we did pay well under the going rate for ours at the time and it seems the going rate has only gone significantly up. However, she forgets that unless you're actually moving house, the value matters not a jot!
Where are you? Whilst London is suffering, you guys elsewhere may well be OK at the moment?I don't really know why, but our neighbor passed away a few months back and they've just sold his house. Bit of a special house, built in the 60's by builders of the name Jonmill, its a little bit mid-century modern with its asymmetrical roof and large glass ware. There are 3 such houses and we live in one on the end, his was in the middle. They're very different to the usual 2 up 2 down boxes that inhabit the rest of the estate.
It was sold, in less than 1 day and for 5 k over asking.
Old couple who live over the road in aforementioned 2 up 2 down box, are moving to be nearer grand kids. House sold the same day it went up for £10k over. A friend of my other half, have a nice big 5 bedroom house in a newer estate. They're off back to London, house sold in a week for asking price.
The thing about the first house is, the buyers were happy to pay the original asking price. Then the price was shifted up by 5k as the daughter of our neighbor panicked about selling too cheaply. Buyers happily paid it. The old couple across the street, I think someone just straight offered 10k over. Presumably in the hope they'd accept right away to avoid a bidding war.
They've built 4 new estates in the 4 years we've been in this village. Its now getting on for a town really. Currently building a 5th with some 400 homes. So far all houses built have simply "flown of the shelves". And that is from the upmarket builds (think they were £400k starting) to the cheaper end (high 100's).
Don't know who is buying them all. But they're buying them.
My OH gets excited because we did pay well under the going rate for ours at the time and it seems the going rate has only gone significantly up. However, she forgets that unless you're actually moving house, the value matters not a jot!
Edited by Otispunkmeyer on Monday 18th June 17:10
I can confirm it is generally “tougher” these last few months than for some time in the five boroughs at the extreme bottom of that map.
Fewer listings, enquiries, proceedable applicants, motivations generally low so a mismatch between buyers and sellers more stark than for a while. Interesting times.
Moving on from central Kingston flat development madness ‘’twas mentioned a few pages back about major projects in Sutton. They follow other major releases in the centre in recent years. It will be interesting to see how well those releases go over the next 12 months and the values placed on the other recently built “premium” flats as they naturally start to trickle back onto the open market. They can’t all be sold at relatively high prices only to be let to recent arrivals, can they?
Fewer listings, enquiries, proceedable applicants, motivations generally low so a mismatch between buyers and sellers more stark than for a while. Interesting times.
Moving on from central Kingston flat development madness ‘’twas mentioned a few pages back about major projects in Sutton. They follow other major releases in the centre in recent years. It will be interesting to see how well those releases go over the next 12 months and the values placed on the other recently built “premium” flats as they naturally start to trickle back onto the open market. They can’t all be sold at relatively high prices only to be let to recent arrivals, can they?
p1stonhead said:
Surprisingly lots of areas with fairly large increases there.
Perhaps the new builds have indeed skewed results in those boroughs. I should be doing actual work so haven’t read the report yet. As we know a stat by borough doesn’t always give a very rounded figure. Besides, the numbers seem all over the place this year. Up big, down big...Edit - thought the stats were MoM not YoY.
Edited by scenario8 on Tuesday 19th June 12:34
Harry Flashman said:
Where are you? Whilst London is suffering, you guys elsewhere may well be OK at the moment?
I know its unfashionable on this thread to talk outside of the City, but my observations fall in line with the rightmove report that was linked on here yesterday. London seems to be struggling/flatlining/falling in parts, the Home Counties stalling and the rest of the South seeing little rises aside from odd pockets. Midlands and the North seems to be business as normal. I am Leeds based and property here seems to be climbing value wise still, although if one were to look at the 2005(ish) - 2018 overall rise its well behind the UK pattern. I've just sold a house in the Midlands and that had a lot of interest and sold at asking in days.
johnfm said:
My favourite house seller site...sod Zoopla & Rightmove...
https://www.themodernhouse.com/sales-list/
They do get on some nice places, all of a similar shabby chic style from my browsing. Though when they're trying to charge 600k for an art deco inspired council flat in Sydenham I do think to myself what utter garbage they must come out with when they go to valuations. https://www.themodernhouse.com/sales-list/
Shnozz said:
I know its unfashionable on this thread to talk outside of the City, but my observations fall in line with the rightmove report that was linked on here yesterday. London seems to be struggling/flatlining/falling in parts, the Home Counties stalling and the rest of the South seeing little rises aside from odd pockets. Midlands and the North seems to be business as normal. I am Leeds based and property here seems to be climbing value wise still, although if one were to look at the 2005(ish) - 2018 overall rise its well behind the UK pattern.
I've just sold a house in the Midlands and that had a lot of interest and sold at asking in days.
Please don’t mistake non-London chat being uncommon with being unwelcome. Interesting to hear Leeds is enjoying good times. My last exposure to the market up there was to a huge boom in the construction of city centre flats followed by an inevitable recession...I've just sold a house in the Midlands and that had a lot of interest and sold at asking in days.
scenario8 said:
Shnozz said:
I know its unfashionable on this thread to talk outside of the City, but my observations fall in line with the rightmove report that was linked on here yesterday. London seems to be struggling/flatlining/falling in parts, the Home Counties stalling and the rest of the South seeing little rises aside from odd pockets. Midlands and the North seems to be business as normal. I am Leeds based and property here seems to be climbing value wise still, although if one were to look at the 2005(ish) - 2018 overall rise its well behind the UK pattern.
I've just sold a house in the Midlands and that had a lot of interest and sold at asking in days.
Please don’t mistake non-London chat being uncommon with being unwelcome. Interesting to hear Leeds is enjoying good times. My last exposure to the market up there was to a huge boom in the construction of city centre flats followed by an inevitable recession...I've just sold a house in the Midlands and that had a lot of interest and sold at asking in days.
At which point my London house will be worth 50p, so I'll be stuck here forever. Hmph.
p1stonhead said:
Surprisingly lots of areas with fairly large increases there.
Which picture are you looking at? It has looked like that for at least a year and maintains the majority of north/west/east London are getting battered, whilst the east is fairing better.In acadata's own words "Overall, 24 London boroughs have seen prices fall over the year, and just nine have seen them rise: four in the top third of the market; four in the bottom third; and just one in the mid-priced boroughs".
The average of the drops is near 6% with most rises being in the 1-2% range in the year with a couple of clear hitters such as Kensington, Lambeth and Harringay that are up between 5-10%, probably driven by new builds in the latter two and a couple of extra high value sales in Kens. Put that in context inflation from 2016 to 2017 was 3.6%.
Edited by V6Alfisti on Tuesday 19th June 12:28
Otispunkmeyer said:
They've built 4 new estates in the 4 years we've been in this village. Its now getting on for a town really. Currently building a 5th with some 400 homes. So far all houses built have simply "flown of the shelves". And that is from the upmarket builds (think they were £400k starting) to the cheaper end (high 100's).
Don't know who is buying them all. But they're buying them.
My OH gets excited because we did pay well under the going rate for ours at the time and it seems the going rate has only gone significantly up. However, she forgets that unless you're actually moving house, the value matters not a jot!
Where new estates have been dropped onto villages around us in West Cheshire it's completely messed access to the already popular local schools. It's been an issue for years that success at getting into infant school alternates each year - one year it's siblings only and the next year they're short of kids. Now the same is happening at senior school level - the school our village has always fed to is full, and so are the three other good schools within reach.Don't know who is buying them all. But they're buying them.
My OH gets excited because we did pay well under the going rate for ours at the time and it seems the going rate has only gone significantly up. However, she forgets that unless you're actually moving house, the value matters not a jot!
We part own another house in our village and I wanted to get one of my daughters into it - she's said no way, due to the school uncertainty for her kids. If other people are aware of it, then that's got to have an effect on house prices.
Edited by Sheepshanks on Tuesday 19th June 13:54
anonymous said:
[redacted]
I moved from central London to Tunbridge Wells and then further out. The quality of life and houses is very good, but the M25 has to be faced if you want to go elsewhere in England!
My commute from deepest darkest Kent is about 1:15, which is fine for me, as I generally only travel in a couple of times a week and even then mostly out of rush hour.
What this means is that, if you are close to Sevenoaks, you get the Alpha couple shiny types, whilst if you go further out, it is more business owners and senior management, or second time around families.
For £1.5m near me, you would get an epic house with large grounds, not a 0.7acre McMansion.
If it helps, I grew up near Cobham, so I do understand your market, too.
V6Alfisti said:
p1stonhead said:
Surprisingly lots of areas with fairly large increases there.
Which picture are you looking at? In acadata's own words "Overall, 24 London boroughs have seen prices fall over the year, and just nine have seen them rise: four in the top third of the market; four in the bottom third; and just one in the mid-priced boroughs"
Then of the limited ones that have risen they are mostly up about 1.x % in the year with a couple of clear hitters such as Kensington, Lambeth and Harringay that are up between 5-10%, probably driven by new builds in the latter two.
That is anything but "lots of areas" imo, and still maintains the majority of north/west/east London are getting battered, whilst the east is fairing better.
p1stonhead said:
9 boroughs out of 30 rising was my 'a lot'. The picture you posted and 'a lot' was in the context of expecting none.
Got it, the 9 of 33 with the majority in the east/cheaper areas. It has been like that for a while as the east has remained more resilient probably because the values are lower to start with, the majority of those limited rises are in the 1-2% range and are still about 2% below inflation over the year. Hence my surprise in the statement.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff